Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from 942 respondents (released a day earlier than usual for some reason), is somewhat better for Labor than last week’s shocker. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 36 per cent, the Coalition’s is down 3.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent and the Greens are up two to 13 per cent. On the two-party measure which allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has narrowed from 54.5-45.5 to 51.5-48.5. However, a gap has re-opened between this figure and the result from respondent-allocated preferences, which has only gone from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

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  2. Just on WA again, I wonder what impact the disastrous Adele Carles will have on Fremantle voters Federally?

  7. JV @ 937

    Turnbull as a very outside chance after the election and then, and only then if the Carbon Tax/ Price is in place and the ALP win the election – by 2016 a fait accompli and too hard to roll back . Otherwise not a snowballs chance …

  8. Turnbull would only ever lead the Liberals again over the bodies of a small swarm of Do-nothings.

    Death before acknowledging AGW.
    Death before doing anything real about it.
    They are prepared for climate martyrdom.

  9. [I am disappointed. But Carlton have become a pretty good unit this year.]
    That’s for sure. They’ll be there in September. I hope Collingwood puts them out.

  11. I tipped the Blues by 4 this week, margin was 2 to the Cats, I am having a disastrous tipping year but my margin is still less than 100! A question for those on PB, I had Juddy as my Dreamteam captain – is the score I see now the doubled score or does that only happen at the end of the round?

  12. blackburnpseph
    I don’t expect a conflagration over the carbon mechanisms.

    As to the Greens ‘making merry’ over a carbon price, there is plenty of scope for a phasing in of proper prices and targets over the next few years, provided they are set in concrete now as much as possible. I think they will accept Garnaut in the end.

    A potential threat may be from the Labor backroom bosses of the AWU /SDA variety refusing to go beyond the old CPRS. I didn’t like Combet’s remark about the price the other day- it suggested to me he has some conservative marching orders.

  15. Labor were the first political party in Australia to bring true professionalism to winning elections. Those pioneers have long since departed to big miners or other big money gigs. How about the present collective of dregs? It’s a pretty sure bet they’re not being headhunted. Not for anything that doesn’t come with mop and bucket included that is.

    What sort of dunce would allow their top line spokespeople to be intangled with Turnbull? I couldn’t believe my ears when I heard Wong and Gillard giving this bloke raps. Surely these idiots must know their own research and “secret” campaign strategies on dealing with Turnbull when he was opposition leader. A five year old with a reasonable intelligence could make the Point Piper toff fluff, hard hitting.

    The guy doesn’t just turn off a very core group, he makes many of them feel like physically assulting him. And here’s Gillard and her clueless sidekick consumating their policy and public image with “shady banker” Malcolm Turnbull. The entire doubting Labor blue collar base must be so relieved. They might of been thinking they were getting a dud deal.

    The present fools make a mockery of themselves and job titles.

  16. Football needs a strong Carlton, Essendon, Richmond and Collingwood. Three of them are really on the go and Richmond is getting there.

  20. strawman, they’re only praising Turnbull because he undermines Abbott. It’s not really difficult to figure that out.

  24. [What do you make of the new Gold Coast team?]
    They’ll be hit and miss this year. Apart from when they play Collingwood I barrack for them each week.

  27. [972

    Gusface

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    “loooonggggg Gaaame”

    doog nails it

    #lateline
    ]

    Exactly – Labor is at the same position Howard was post 1998 Election.

  28. [Geelong won because 2 carlton players missed shots at goal at the 25 and 27 minute marks. That’s all.]
    True but that doesn’t change the result unfortunately.

  35. vic

    doog is saying

    wtte

    we are way out from the election

    the alp is slowly developing its meme

    a long game approach is the most prudent

    btw

    bob b running defence is a help

    🙂

  41. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    btw

    the fibs have been quite on the blogs

    everywhere

    summat is up
    ]

    Yeah, and when the callers on MM are ganging up on MT and MM tells them to be careful what they say – you knowe the ka ka is about the cooling device.

  47. [victoria

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Gusface

    What did you hear?
    ]

    see my reply to Gus – 2GB last night was wall to wall attacks on Malcolm Turnbull – and while 2GB are quite happy to slander Gillard etc – The announcer was being ultra-cautious about anything slanderous about Turnbull going to air.

  49. [the fibs have been quite on the blogs]

    Libs have been active on Jen’s petition pitch, and LP.

    I see no evidence of this quietening.

  50. [confessions

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    the fibs have been quite on the blogs

    Libs have been active on Jen’s petition pitch, and LP.

    I see no evidence of this quietening.
    ]

    Yes, but on 2GB – their natural habitat ? Something is amiss.

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