Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from 942 respondents (released a day earlier than usual for some reason), is somewhat better for Labor than last week’s shocker. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 36 per cent, the Coalition’s is down 3.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent and the Greens are up two to 13 per cent. On the two-party measure which allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has narrowed from 54.5-45.5 to 51.5-48.5. However, a gap has re-opened between this figure and the result from respondent-allocated preferences, which has only gone from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

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  1. First Comment from the other side of the world. I think this one is a little better hopefully, please keep it coming, ie ALP keeps coming up. I will go and look at the papers now and see what they say!!!! Honestly Oz is paradise compared to ther countries, but no thanks to the Government is there

  2. Misfit,
    re your resident red-bellied black snake. It is unlikely that you will see it roaming your house now until after winter has well and truely passed. Snakes go into hibernation as soon as the weather turns cold.

    I’m rather fond of the red-bellied black and they do a fabulous job of keeping mice/rats at bay. Over the years I’ve had many finding a warm refuge in the house – they have all found their own way out when the weather warms up. We had one coiled up in the bottom of the wood box beside the potbelly stove some years ago!

  4. Good Morning.

    In case the Ntieth Dies Irae of my life (many in the last 2 decades) is not just a mad hallucination of yet another whackjob claiming to be a Christian, carpe diem & have a hellava good day.

    To start the ball rolling (well, not quite; I have read Canberra Times, Fairfax & caught up with last nght’s PB)

    Al Gore goes after Murdoch Al Gore hits out at Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp Former US vice-president says media giant is forcing his liberal Current TV service off air in Italy for hiring Keith Olbermann

    [Former US vice-president Al Gore has hit out at Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation, accusing it of “an abuse of power” by forcing his liberal TV station off air in Italy because it did not fit in with the media giant’s “ideological agenda”.

    In an interview with the Guardian, Gore said the Current TV news and documentary channel was told unexpectedly three weeks ago that it could no longer be carried by Sky Italia because of its decision to hire a US left-leaning commentator often critical of Murdoch’s company…

    Gore added that he had a “pleasant personal relationship” with Murdoch dating back to the former vice-president’s time in the White House, and said that he wasn’t sure exactly on whose authority the decision was made to order Current TV off the air in Italy. He said that he didn’t want “to make this ad hominem” but added it was clear that Murdoch and News Corp had too much power.]

    Obviously yesterday’s Flavour of the day Good on them!

  5. The narrowing has begun.

    If it does, and Julia Gillard goes on to win election 2013, then you trace back to that fateful Malcolm Turnbull Lateline interview on Wed, 18/5/11 where he dumped on Abbott’s Direct Action policy.

  7. A good poll for Labor, but the difference between this and Newspoll seems beyond MOE. Still a step in the right direction. More consistency of message from Labor will help maintain the trend, so don’t back away form the unpopular budget measures or the Carbon Tax.

  8. Abbott is furiously spinning Malcolm Turnbull’s attack this morning on Slynews looking very stressed.

  9. I thought I’d just post this link because it is an interesting issue partly related to taxes on carbon pollution. In the USA the EPA is finally proposing pollution laws on the amount of mercury emitted by coal fired power plants. They emit a lot, and it is quite toxic. This is another tack to take on those who argue against a carbon tax: the pollution effect of coal plants is real, it is not just CO2, and it harms human health now, not in 100 years time.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/epa-proposes-first-u-s-standard-for-coal-plant-mercury-1-.html

  10. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 7:06 am | Permalink
    The narrowing has begun.

    If it does, and Julia Gillard goes on to win election 2013, then you trace back to that fateful Malcolm Turnbull Lateline interview on Wed, 18/5/11 where he dumped on Abbott’s Direct Action policy.]
    Wishful thinking… I can see what is happening here you guys are attempting to manufacture a momentum change good luck with that.
    a few points
    Morgan face to face is usually 3 plus points biased to Labor conservatives tend to work and are not doll bludger who hang around to be interveiwed face to face
    the allocated preferences are still 53.5 in coalitions favour
    even if take it a face value using the 51.5 figure..+3 percent for the bias equals 54.5 totally in line with other polls
    and that is not the mention the low numbers compared to other polls
    as for turnbull he crossed the floor with Rudd so it is hardly news and he is not climate change portfoilo

  11. [Socrates
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 7:10 am | Permalink
    A good poll for Labor, but the difference between this and Newspoll seems beyond MOE. Still a step in the right direction. More consistency of message from Labor will help maintain the trend, so don’t back away form the unpopular budget measures or the Carbon Tax.]
    Socrates again you are dreaming see post above

  12. [Wishful thinking… I can see what is happening here you guys are attempting to manufacture a momentum change good luck with that.]

    Manufacture momentum? Obviously, you never study the Newtonian Laws of Physics and the Heavenly clockwork

  13. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 7:18 am | Permalink
    Wishful thinking… I can see what is happening here you guys are attempting to manufacture a momentum change good luck with that.

    Manufacture momentum? Obviously, you never study the Newtonian Laws of Physics and the Heavenly clockwork]
    mark my words blog after blog today will conclude there is a shift.. Frank etal; and shout down any opposing view in the hope it will catch on
    (i didn’t say it would work)

  15. [Kinkajou
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 7:22 am | Permalink
    BD, do I detect a bias?]
    This place is a lefty den trying to keep it level
    I also should bring to attention the poll of marginals which showed coalition 58 to42 percent infront see update 2 threads ago

  16. Good morning, Bludgers!

    [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    C’mon @TurnbullMalcolm, sit on the cross benches. You know you want to. #auspol
    ]

  17. [KRuddMP Kevin Rudd
    Spoke at Oslo uni on the big global challenges including climate change. Stacks of kids from Oz studying here too. KRudd
    8 minutes ago]

    the Ruddster is like a pig in sh*t – tweeting from Oslo (which is very nice in spring)

    compare and contrast to another former leader in turnbull and the “stressed” abbott, who will spend the rest of the day/weekend fending off questions about the bad direct action plan which, to use a Joe Hockey term, has had its cat belled

  18. well yeah…. I hope you’re over at Hate Press trying to level that up as well..(but they’d probably out you)

  19. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Note to Media: @TonyAbbottMHR talking “bad carbon tax” for the millionth time is NOT news. #auspol #mediafail
    ]

  20. [Wishful thinking… I can see what is happening here you guys are attempting to manufacture a momentum change good luck with that.]

    Well my bias detector is beeping madly, reminding me that one, John Howard and his Cabinet, in particular Peter Reith, manufactured a “Momentum change” with 438 refugees from a distressed fishing vessel, MV Tampa, men, women and children – aided by a deliberate lie that people threw their children overboard to stop MSM telling the truth. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_affair

    With Howard trailing Beazley badly in the OpPolls and an election due, and Shockjocks whipping up racist frenzies among the poor threatened whities who still dance to their Goebellian tunes, Howard clutched the whole affair as an election-winning strategy at odds with his strategy till then, and in defiance of 50 years of bipartisan policy on refugees forged initially by PM Chifley and LOTO Menzies, made more Liberal by Menzies’ Minister Holt and LOTO Calwell, and extended to SE Asian, Central Americans and others by PMs Fraser & Hawke, LOTOs Whitlam & Hayden.

    Now, biasdetector, stop attributing to others what you see in your own mirror and answer this: Did 2001’s Tampa crisis manufacture a momentum change in Howard’s political fortunes? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_affair#Political_effects

    BTW, if you want people to swallow RW crap without reminding you (with references) that it is crap, you’ve come to the wrong Blog!

  22. Hate Media – OO and the Karlbot talking about the $2 billion black hole in Swans budget, without mentioning the fact that WA has just had $2 billion in GST receipts docked.

    Dont you love the new tag of hate media, hate press ets?

    The filthy journo lackeys dont like it. The old blowtorch to the belly as PJK used to say and they fold like a house of cards.

  23. 🙂 Just seen through the kitchen window the season’s first rainbow lorikeets feasting off the banksia integrifolia’s nectar. Bluefaced honeyeaters have already feasted on their pwned Queen protea (very aggressive lot, Bluefaces) and soon the King Parrots will be back.

    If Armageddon rally arrives tomorrow, they’ve brightened up my last day!

  24. morning bludgers

    Herald Sun this morning has a piece on Turnbull. I have been saying for months that Turnbull is the key to destabilizing Abbott’s bogus climate change policy. We always knew Turnbull did not believe in this crap alternative. What made Libs believe that Turnbull was going to be their lackie. Now that the carbon price is close to an agreement, Turnbull has piped up to ensure that it happens!

  25. OzPolTragic,

    I always love your comments! Your words are always so vibrant and alive, but what is this end of the world stuff?

  32. [ Just seen through the kitchen window the season’s first rainbow lorikeets feasting off the banksia integrifolia’s nectar. Bluefaced honeyeaters have already feasted on their pwned Queen protea (very aggressive lot, Bluefaces) and soon the King Parrots will be back]
    OPT
    Two nights ago Mrs BK saw a bird clinging to the kitchen window flywire. It was an adult male Rainbow Lorikeet and was a bit stunned. We brought it inside and put it into a big cardboard box for the night. Next morning we released it and it took off fully functional. They are impressive creatures.
    Also this week the blue wrens and fantails have appeared.

  33. [Morning all.
    This is well worth a read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wellaimed-broadside-at-the-shallowness-of-media-coverage-20110519-1euug.html
    29 victoria]

    [Even so, Tanner’s prediction about the response to his book proved startlingly accurate. The following headlines speak for themselves: “Tanner’s tirade”, “Ex-minister unloads on Rudd government”, “Insider lets rip on Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd governments” and “Tanner savages leaders, media in new book”. Furthermore, the articles under these headlines were written by a journalist who had evidently not read the book at the time she wrote them.]

    Which little rotund female version of sloppy Joe in the hate media is referred to above?

  35. Steady, folk.

    To follow the apparent ornithological meme of the day, one swallow does not a summer make.

  36. biasdetector, if you cannot write in sentences you’re out of your depth in a forum of the written word.

    On the poll, I suspect it is a bit roguish. Morgan hasn’t thrown up a rogue for a while; Newspoll’s had enough for all of them.

  38. [Misfit,
    re your resident red-bellied black snake …]

    To add to janice2’s wise advice; put out bird feeders in likely snake fave spots, and adopt a puss or so (with loud bells on their collars) – I recommend cat breeds from Indochine’s Klongs; most others want to bring them into the house as gifts.

    Birds, esp B&W ones, do great Stuka attack imitations if there’s a snake or goanna around.

    Kookaburras are particularly fond of red-bellied black bush tucker, so you have to be quick to save them. I take a Darwinian approach.

  39. BERNARDKEANE | 7 minutes ago
    [“Bob Brown is under pressure and he’s showing it.” Shanahan and the boys at the Oz Press Gallery bureau clearly don’t like it up ’em.]

  41. LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
    [And the PM JG is in Mitcham in Adelaide today. Both Leaders are taking part in ‘Walk to Work/School Day.’]

  43. [Just seen through the kitchen window the season’s first rainbow lorikeets ]

    can some one explain why we have them all spring and summer they eat the blossom first then take great delight in the fruit we fooled them this year and covered the blossom before they got to it, our acre and bit lookes like ghoasts the trees all covered with white netting, but now they have grown so big we are having trouble getting the netting off,
    any one know how to prune trees the italian way so we can pick the fruit with out needing step ladders. looked on the internet and cannot find much is there a good book out there, seriously

  44. Obama just said this in his ME speech.
    [How can one negotiate with a party that has shown itself unwilling to recognize your right to exist.]
    Strikes a certain local chord, doesn’t it.

  46. OPT

    All I get are indian mynahs

    The banksia you describe, is that one you have purchased or is it a well established native?

  48. [Two nights ago Mrs BK saw a bird clinging to the kitchen window flywire.]

    Might have flown into the window (or blown around by the weekend’s weather); they don’t like cold. The only lories we have flying into windows are scaly-breasteds. OH was really adept at reviving birds which didn’t top themselves trying to fly from tree to tree through the living room’s high glass windows.

  49. [In case the Ntieth Dies Irae of my life (many in the last 2 decades) is not just a mad hallucination of yet another whackjob claiming to be a Christian, carpe diem & have a hellava good day.]

    how many times have we heard this. how could he comment on such a thing,

  50. victoria i am having trouble deciding who to vote for lol

    may i want then, i cannot decide who is the best one for us to have there

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