Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from 942 respondents (released a day earlier than usual for some reason), is somewhat better for Labor than last week’s shocker. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 36 per cent, the Coalition’s is down 3.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent and the Greens are up two to 13 per cent. On the two-party measure which allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has narrowed from 54.5-45.5 to 51.5-48.5. However, a gap has re-opened between this figure and the result from respondent-allocated preferences, which has only gone from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

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  2. Dans link

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/editorial/britain-shows-up-abbotts-folly-20110519-1euqa.html

    thank you dan for that link i wondered when some on in the media was going to talk about this, oz poll is the only person and your self that i have read about this on line also socretas i think

    my question is living on the south island, is this in the hard copy of the papers so the less knowlegeable ones can read it and learn we are not the only country on earth doing this.

  3. my say: I made that exact point in the comments section. I have no idea if they will publish it.

    Basically I said that left-leaning voters render this sort of poll virtually meaningless because the vote splits between who you would rather have because you prefer their politics and who you would rather have because they are so awful you think they are less electable.

    If you are going to have a poll like that it needs to be split into Abbott or Turnbull for Coalition voters and Abbott or Turnbull for non-Coalition voters. Then you can see where the votes are spraying and get a better idea about the number of “strategic” votes.

  4. [ Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    11 Percenter stuff http://bit.ly/lnsnem
    12 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?

    @SpaceKidette
    Space Kidette
    @Pollytics After reading that article all I can say is it isn’t Bob Brown under pressure. Had a chat with your media baron boss, hey Shanas?
    ]

  5. My Say,

    [i would say morgan would never have a rogue poll]

    Prepare for the worst; hope for the best – that’s my motto with these things.

  6. Morgan’s F2F results have always seemed to have a pro-Labor ‘bias’, so this probably fits in well with all the other published polls.

  8. [BarossaObserver Barossa Observer
    if there is nothing in Tanner’s and Brown’s complaints about the media then why are they getting all shrill and defensive? #auspol]

    Keeping up the pressure …

  9. LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    Oppn Leader TAbbott’s ‘Whistle-stop’ tour includes visits to Pyrmont, Burwood, Ingleburn, St Marys – all Syd suburbs in Labor electorates.

  10. shellbell, Banksia integrifolia is usually a short 3-5m scruffy, shrubby beach tree. In the 80s we planted small seedlings in the area’s (still going) “plant natives and bring back birds & butterflies” campaign (the land had been used for cattle grazing) & they were still small when the weather turned dry. Not until 1999’s “green drought/ sodden escarpment” rain pattern did we discover that rich red soil + more than enough water produced 10m giants that need hard pruning.

    When it comes to bird attractors, Bi and Grevillia misty pink are amazing, attracting more than our other banksias & grevillias; we had over thirty R Lories in one late last year. But the very best Rainbow Lory attractor I know are those umbrella trees with bright red berries – if you can stand the squarking!

    A suitable-climate guide is that Bi grows from Q’s sub-tropical beaches inland at least to the Ranges &, in gardens, survive Toowoomba area’s climate (inc high winds, frequent fog & frosts v occasional snow).

  11. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [And the PM JG is visiting her old Primary School – which is in the Liberal held electorate of Boothby]

  12. Bolt is quoting Overington re her article in the the Oz about the ABC get up campaign.

    I am not linking it cos I think links to crap are undesirable

    Spot the errors if you read it. It is hard to think of a more overtly political piece

  13. [To follow the apparent ornithological meme of the day, one swallow does not a summer make.]

    FV, i also recall that great ancient sage Confusion said:

    [The journey of 1000 miles started with a single step]

  15. [Morgan’s F2F results have always seemed to have a pro-Labor ‘bias’, so this probably fits in well with all the other published polls.]

    Coalition primary vote down 3.5 points: I’d like it to be true (and it might be), but it sounds a bit roguish.

  16. Latika is making a real habit of pointing out Abbott’s campiagn-like activities in Labor seats. taking tips from JWH who believed everyday was a campiagn day.

  17. JAMESMASSOLA | 1 minute ago
    [Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey both playing down Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership comments this morning.]

  20. Its been reported that because we do not have an emissions scheme in place, Qantas is going to be charged some kind of penalties by European countries. And of course, Qantas will load this of on their customers. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I have not heard Labor making this an issue and using it to their advantage in the climate debate.

    This is why I keep saying that this Labor government really does not know how to sell its achievements and it has quite a few and significants ones too.

  21. Notice to the hate media. do not make the story only about Turnbulls leadership
    aspirations.
    .
    Turnbull is also saying that the coalition climate policy is crap and will cost the taxpayer. Do your job and provide an analysis of this policy!!!!

  23. The UK decision on carbon could not have come at a better time. Not merely to further highlight the Libs’ already clear and growing irrelevance, but to put real pressure on Labor at the MPC to go in a lot deeper than in 2009. 

    Already Combet’s ill-advised ‘well south of $40’ statement looks very AWU.

  25. KATINACURTIS | 1 minute ago
    [Anyone else feel that sense of deja vu? RT @TonyAbbottMHR: Started my day at the Sydney Fish Markets.]

  26. this fact should be tweeted far and wide

    POLLYTICS | 7 minutes ago
    [106 Bills appear to have been passed so far in our hung 43rd Parliament]

  29. I’m sure it’s been picked up and commented on profusely before now, but the Australian carries a story on page 3 today about the GetUp petition urging the ABC to get ‘back to its charter’, containing some quotes from Mr Uhlmann.

  30. you gotta love Poss

    POLLYTICS | 3 minutes ago
    [Abbott’s whole “you shall/none shall pass” shtick seems to be less Gandalf and more Monty Python’s The Black Knight]

  32. “Turnbull is also saying that the coalition climate policy is crap and will cost the taxpayer. Do your job and provide an analysis of this policy!!!!”

    That would actually require reading the coalition direct action plan including asking questions about how it would be paid for other than accepting Tones easy answer.

    It has been released for many months and, as yet, with one or two exceptions, they have shown no capacity or interest to do either.

    It has proved much easier to just hate a carbon price.

  34. shellbell
    Thanks for the Richard Ackland link. I hope there is legal action started on behalf the the newly arrived 32 poor unfortunates on CI on the back of those High Court decisions. The government just seems to be ignoring those decisions and hoping no-one will get a chance to act on them. Hope they’re proved wrong. 

  35. [Already Combet’s ill-advised ‘well south of $40? statement looks very AWU.]

    What does Senator Hanson-Young’s $100 statement look like? NUS? 😉

  36. jv
    if the the difference is that the UK have a labor gov sorry ( labour) in oppositon in the U> K> also from what i see i dont see the press over there saying much

  37. I can’t find today’s Herald Sun editorial online. It is about Bob Brown. suffice to say it is the headline says

    STOP THIS MAN RUINING THE NATION

    the Herald Sun says it is against the carbon tax, and they will make no apology for being at the forefront of this criticism, and will continue to do so.

  39. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Furthermore, the Govt says the Oppn’s policy would cost families the equivalent of 192 fillets a year of fresh Ocean Trout. #brainhurt
    ]

  40. LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
    Oppn Leader TAbbott says Syd’s Fish Markets will be ‘under threat’ by the carbon tax; Combet says a trout fillet would 3c dearer under CPRS.

  41. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    Oppn Leader TAbbott’s ‘Whistle-stop’ tour includes visits to Pyrmont, Burwood, Ingleburn, St Marys – all Syd suburbs in Labor electorates.]

    Ugh. The Slogan Bogan is going to be in my manor today (Burwood). I’ll have to stock up on garlic.

  42. LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
    [Furthermore, the Govt says the Oppn’s policy would cost families the equivalent of 192 fillets a year of fresh Ocean Trout. #brain hurt]

  43. victoria

    Baillieu has already announced they won’t be closing down one part of Hazelwood. They are deliberately reversing any moves towards a greener economy. As you say, singing from the Abbott songbook.
    I’m really hopeful that the moves by Britain have pulled the rug from under Abbott’s policy.
    And this “plant more trees and that will do” mantra is so out-of-date now 😀

  45. JV

    The HC has spent a lot of time on immigration matters for years now – disproportionate to the amount of legal work with which it is generally presented. Many immigrant cases have failed but they are closely scrutinised no doubt.

    Nothing like fundamental rights to attract the interest of lawyers and courts which is. to my mind, an important factor in the need for a Bill of Rights debate.

    There is litigation in the NT Supreme Court at the moment concerning the power of the Cth to detain persons suspected of being smugglers (but the Cth not being convinced enough to charge them with such) which may generate HC involvement.

  47. lizzie

    No doubt the UK announcements are going to bite Abbott on the backside. Of course, we need more media coverage of the overseas developments. Alternatively it should form part of the govts advertising strategy

  49. talking of labor electorates

    abbott promised us to come down here and run in our fun runs,mm
    they are all finished for the year.
    gee another promise broken

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