Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from 942 respondents (released a day earlier than usual for some reason), is somewhat better for Labor than last week’s shocker. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 36 per cent, the Coalition’s is down 3.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent and the Greens are up two to 13 per cent. On the two-party measure which allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has narrowed from 54.5-45.5 to 51.5-48.5. However, a gap has re-opened between this figure and the result from respondent-allocated preferences, which has only gone from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

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  1. I think it would mainly be to do with her not having testicles, confessions, but they would not actually say that.

  2. [Confessions they may have but nothing like a good old fashioned states rights stoush across party lines in an outer state to bring em down again.]

    On what basis do you say this? And in particular in relation to Brand in which some parts of the electorate have experienced double digit unemployment this year. Why would unemployed households turn to the Liberals when they are seeing how badly the Barnett govt is screwing them?

  3. [Last I saw it was 20b and climbing! Why doesn’t labor make this a huge issue and what do the hypocritical federal libs say about this i wonder.]

    So what is the Federal govt debt?

  4. [To be blunt, he looks more Prime Ministerial than she does.]
    And this was the same bloke the MSM absolutely pilloried and would do so again. He wasn’t really liked in the end by a lot of people. Let’s not rewrite history.

  8. [Let’s not rewrite history]

    Its OK, history aint gonna rewrite history.

    Rudd and Turnbull have almost no chance of leading their parties in the foreseable future IMO…

  9. John Howard did not look Prime Ministerial. He looked and sounded like Mr Magoo. yet he was PM for 11 years. next please

  13. fess

    [I wonder how much of that perception is tied up in the sentiment that she’s ‘illegitimate’.]

    Plenty. That’s why the Libs are keeping that up although it’s bogus. They’ll keep hammering it and keep talk about an early election going so it’s on the boil. Rudd’s presence doesn’t help the legitimacy thing either.

  15. [Plenty. That’s why the Libs are keeping that up although it’s bogus. They’ll keep hammering it and keep talk about an early election going so it’s on the boil. Rudd’s presence doesn’t help the legitimacy thing either.]
    It will lose its effect over the term.

  16. btw

    there is a bit of confusion re debt

    in terms of the budgetary cycle till 2014 net debt will be about 196 bill

    but

    net retired debt will be 200 bill

    hence a surplus of 4 bill

  18. Global Warming…and Govt policy on Insurance industry
    ____________________________________
    The problems of QBE on the markets and it’s very major losses may bring the whole matter of govt. intervention in that industry,which was big during the Q’Land floods but has since faded from debate.
    Whitlam tried to bring in a government insurance corp. but failed.
    The Q’Land events have have put the issue back on the long-term agenda

    The British expert Prof Lovelock says that as the crisis over global warming extends one of the industies to come unde great pressure will be the world-wide insurance industry.which is under threat world-wide..and the insurance industries acknowledges this…..and insurance is essential to the very operation of capitalism

  20. They used to say that John Howard couldn’t be prime ministerial … but he was PM for 11 years.

    What is Prime Ministerial meant to mean anyway?Tall – Whitlam, Fraser, Double Breasted Suits – Menzies, Keating?
    .
    Part of the problem may be that it is more difficult to rise above the fray in a minority government situation. Also, the ALP have been behind in the polls ever since the election so there has never been a honeymoon period (except for that short one) between becoming PM and calling the election. It is a most unusual situation for recent times – Billy McMahon is the closest parallel that I can think of – sad but true.

  22. [jaundiced view
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 10:26 pm | Permalink
    I’d say Turnbull has the far greater chance of leading again than does Rudd.]

    He did till the other day.

    Hellava Lateline interview wasn’t it??? I loved it, but unfortunately I think it sealed the fate of my guy…

  23. Interesting how people here are talking about Gillard and Rudd.

    The next move by Turnbull will change the game for the coalition

  24. [Also, the ALP have been behind in the polls ever since the election so there has never been a honeymoon period (except for that short one) between becoming PM and calling the election.]
    I’m not so sure that is accurate from memory. I could be wrong.

  25. [John Howard did not look Prime Ministerial. He looked and sounded like Mr Magoo. yet he was PM for 11 years. next please]

    😀

  26. Just found this tweet:

    [

    rs ago

    »

    smithadanielDaniel Smith

    by dan_pastorelli

    Waiting for the mining industry campaign to bring down the Barnett Government over the massive increase in royalty rates #wabudget

    19 MayFavoriteUndo RetweetReply]

  27. I think one of the hopes of the Libs for an early election is that the multi-party carbon committee will split, and the minority agreements will collapse – as unlikely as that may be.

  28. when we talk total debt

    exclusive of gvt borrowings

    about 8/900 bill

    gvt borrowings

    fed

    about 250 bill

    state about 100 bill

    but here is the rub

    gvt borrowings are split between recurrent and one off

    state borrowings are another mindf*** altogether

  29. [Plenty. That’s why the Libs are keeping that up although it’s bogus. They’ll keep hammering it and keep talk about an early election going so it’s on the boil. Rudd’s presence doesn’t help the legitimacy thing either.

    It will lose its effect over the term.]

    A few good polls would do more than anything. While the crap polls continue, it’s hard to shake.

  31. Henry. You do raise the point of the Greens having the BoP in the senate. A bit of electoral arithmetic suggests that it may only be for one term and that after 2013 they will become part of the numbers with Senator X and the DLP – the Libs are much better placed than the ALP on the 2010 numbers. Who knows at this stage how the Greens will go but they are essentially sharing votes with the ALP.

  32. [Rudd’s presence doesn’t help the legitimacy thing either.]

    True. But for as long as it’s a minority govt Rudd needs to be placated and tolerated. More’s the pity. I just hope Labor can win a majority in 2013 and send Rudd packing.

  33. Gary @ 924

    Remember that first election poll when the ALP led 55-45, that was the noneymoon period – it may have been the first poll with JG as PM.

  37. Mod Lib

    I think Turbull has a chance even before the next election. If the stupid positions Abbott has taken become redundant with quickening events (UK carbon policy; NBN rollout, for example) and at the same time Labor manages to pull some leadership from its hollow arse, then Abbott may become dead meat fairly quickly.

    And always assuming there as enough moderates still among the Lib members.

  40. According to Pollytrend, the polls started out 50-50 for a month or two after the election and after that Labor have been behind.

  41. JV @ 927

    That would require one of two things:

    1. The Greens to make merry over the carbon price
    2. Petrol being in or out – Oakeshott doesn’t want it in, not sure where Windsor stands. Petrol being in will be the true test of political courage.

  42. 930 victoria
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
    [Show carbon courage: Prime Minister Julia Gillard

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/show-carbon-courage-prime-minister-julia-gillard/story-fn7x8me2-1226059938822%5D
    Why would Julia say this:
    [“Now we must summon that courage again and tackle climate change.

    “We must summon that courage again and win the fight to price carbon.”]
    As far as I’m concerned the battle’s already won.

    PS Did you back Geelong?

  43. [Remember that first election poll when the ALP led 55-45, that was the noneymoon period – it may have been the first poll with JG as PM.]
    I thought there were polls after the election that had Labor leading by a small margin TPP and definitely there were polls that had Gillard’s personal numbers reasonably high.

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