Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 77 of 79
1 … 76 77 78 79

  1. [In Eden, the fishermen’s club is the only major employer left and did not need the problem of dealing with the mandatory pre-commitment system, he said.]

    About the LGA in which Eden is based, from the Shire website:

    [Tourism is the Shire’s largest employer of labour and the largest contributor to the economy, generating more than $200 million annually. Sapphire Coast Tourism, the Shire’s marketing arm, conducts strong campaigns directed towards niche markets. The temperate climate, pristine beaches, magnificent forests and scenic rolling hills contribute to a visual splendour enjoyed by visitors. This makes the Sapphire Coast and the Bega Valley Shire second to none as a popular family and ecotourist destination.

    The Bega Valley accounts for the bulk of the dairying output in the wider region. Output has grown strongly in the past five years, to reach 140 million litres of milk or a turnover of around $70 million in 2000, an $30 million increase since 1995. Some 55% of this was for liquid consumption, the balance for cheese. There are about 130 farms in the Shire, the majority of which are members of the Bega Cooperative.

    Bega Cheese is the highest selling brand of natural cheese in Australia, with more than 50 million Bega branded dairy and associated products sold throughout Australia each year. It is also the only wholly Australian-owned and produced brand in the top 25 selling grocery lines in supermarkets in Australia. So that Bega Cheese could meet the ever-increasing demand for Bega products domestically and in Asia, the Americas, the Middle East and Europe, an investment of $25 million was made in a state-of-the-art cheese processing, cutting and packaging plant, the first stage in a number of future developments. The demand for milk from Bega Valley’s high production dairy farmers will continue to grow.]

    Eden also continues to operate commercial fishing fleets, supplying the Sydney Fish Markets. The Tele is having a lend.
    http://www.begavalley.nsw.gov.au/environment/soe/Begavalley/IndicatorResults/Economy.htm

  2. 3798 Doyley
    Posted Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    The thing is, Doyley, just going on Bombala RSL’s annual report, the treasurer says that the pre-commitment will result in a loss of $203,363. That is – he is taking the stat that 40% of pokie income derives from problem gambling and saying that means a 40% drop in revenue – as if problem gamblers are banned from pokie machines outright.

    And there it sits in the annual report at page 10 as if it is fact!
    http://www.bombalarsl.com.au/resources/150/uploads/file/2010%20Bombala%20RSL%20Club%20Ltd.pdf

  4. ABC headline:
    [Trade, human rights dominate China talks]
    I’d bet that “human rights” has taken a very small part in the discussions.

    This is good:
    [Senior Chinese government ministers were in the audience to hear it and Ms Gillard had a domestic message too for senior Australian executives, Rio Tinto’s Sam Walsh and BHP Billiton’s Marius Kloppers.

    “To drive change, the Government is determined to put a price on carbon from the first of July next year,” she said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/27/3200851.htm

  5. 3801 confessions
    Posted Wednesday, April 27, 2011

    The wages bill for Fishermans Club Eden was $1,230,952.
    Say $50,000 per employee, that means this club employs about 25 people.

    btw, Income from poker machines: $2,467,939.

  6. Socrates,

    Just finished going through that ppt on Peak Oil you linked to earlier. Thanks for providing that, I’ve saved a copy of it reference.

    I like this quote from it:
    [Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – KE Boulding page 9]

  7. Meanwhile the OO gushes:
    [TONY Abbott was greeted like a pop star on his first visit to the Labor stronghold of Christmas Island.

    In the open-air pub on Monday night, Immigration Department staff from the island’s troubled detention centre lined up to have their photo taken with the Opposition Leader, who has vowed to shift asylum-seeker processing to Nauru.

    Mr Abbott drank shots with fly-in, fly-out workers, played pool with the navy and got a loud cheer when he told a blonde perched at the bar that she was “better looking than Julia”.

    Before dawn yesterday morning, Mr Abbott was exercising with the Australian Federal Police’s elite organisational response group, which was flown in last month to respond to riots at the detention centre.

    “What a fantastic way to start the day,” he said before jumping into Flying Fish Cove.

    Most of Mr Abbott’s fans were part of a new crop of Christmas Islanders, referred to by long-time residents as contractors because their work — often tied to the boom in detention — brings them to the tiny territory for a few weeks or months at a time.

    Businessman Tony Yates went to the airport to see Mr Abbott arrive and told The Australian it was a relief to think somebody might finally listen to his concerns about “the way we locals are treated like second-class citizens”.

    Mr Abbott, who asked the Immigration Department for a tour of the island’s detention centre’s after the riots last month, visited the three detention camps that hold more than 1800 people. As he walked into the island’s main centre for single men, eight detainees were protesting on the roof and chanting “Freedom! Freedom!”

    Mr Abbott went inside the family camp loathed by human-rights activists as cramped and inappropriate for children, describing it as “fit for purpose”, which was “short-term accommodation of detainees who are thought not to pose a significant risk”.

    “I’m not going to pass critical judgment on it,” he said.]
    This bit seems a little strange:
    [Most of Mr Abbott’s fans were part of a new crop of Christmas Islanders, referred to by long-time residents as contractors because their work — often tied to the boom in detention — brings them to the tiny territory for a few weeks or months at a time.]
    Would they have more work under Abutbut’s plan, whatever that is?

  8. 3803 victoria
    Posted Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 11:03 am | Permalink
    HOWESPAUL | 2 minutes ago

    [To claim that these are “phantom” members is not only untrue it is libelous]
    Reckon he’ll sue?

  9. Mumble on Asylum Seekers and Labor

    [
    There is one important element Australia has that other countries don’t: the belief that the issue can decide an election.

    In 2001, Tampa, ‘children overboard’ and September 11, and the Howard government’s determination to make boat people the election issue, were followed by what had previously seemed an improbable re-election.

    Cause and effect: the accepted interpretation quickly became that boat people saved the government.

    Until then the issue didn’t figure particularly in mainstream political analysis, but ever since Labor has been terrified of it and for the Coalition it has provided hope.

    It haunted Kevin Rudd even at his most popular. It is seen as the ALP’s Achilles’ Heel, an element of fundamental estrangement from the values of everyday Australians.

    Even when not overtly present, it lurks.

    Naturally it determines the way the media frames the issue. Were it not for the 2001 experience it would not so dominate front page headlines and lead the evening news. Bowen would be less sleep-deprived.

    I don’t believe ‘border protection’ influenced the 2001 result very much. I reckon the Howad government would have been returned anyway. Something can be a dominating, emotional issue without changing many votes. And votes can change in both directions.

    There’s a policy problem and there’s a political problem. The latter is overstated, particularly in two-party terms, but if that’s what everyone believes, it takes on a life of its own. The market research-driven obsession with ‘values’ in politics exacerbates it.

    If elections were only, or even mostly, about ‘border protection’, the ALP would never win one again. But they are largely decided by incumbency and economic security.

    Australians aren’t that different to voters in other democracies.

    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tampa_myth/

  11. Yuck, is all I can say 🙁

    [Mr Abbott drank shots with fly-in, fly-out workers, played pool with the navy and got a loud cheer when he told a blonde perched at the bar that she was “better looking than Julia”.

    Before dawn yesterday morning, Mr Abbott was exercising with the Australian Federal Police’s elite organisational response group]

  14. kezza2,

    Thanks for that breakdown in the annual report.

    A bit like the old “Here is the conclusion I want, give me the stats to back it up. ” or words to that effect !

  15. kezza2 @ 3810:

    Christmas Island is in the electorate of Lingiari (held by ALP’s Warren Snowdon).

    At the 2010 election, the island’s polling place returned a 70% vote for the ALP, and that was after a swing against the ALP.

  18. A funny bit from a very serious Ockham’s Razor:
    [It was the Titanic’s chief designer, Thomas Andrews, who was the first to realise the inevitability of his mighty ship going so quickly to the bottom. As pointed out, his conclusions were met with initial disbelief. The mythology of the unsinkable ship was firmly rooted in the consciousness of most of those on board. When confronted with the expert advice of the very man who designed the ship, the only man on board who had such an intimate knowledge of every nut, bolt and rivet, the ultimate available authority, so to speak, that they were doomed, the passengers would have devised arguments to prove him wrong and strategies to circumvent the problem. The engineers would have commented on the strength of the steel in the hull and the comparative weakness of ice. The business tycoons and their managers would have factored the delay into their schedules and adjusted their precious bottom lines. The lawyers would have rubbed their palms together at the prospect of litigation. The stock brokers would have protested that the market was on the way up, not down. If Ian Plimer had been there, he would no doubt have argued that there was nothing in the geological record (nor anywhere else under Heaven or Earth for that matter) to indicate that an iceberg had ever before sunk a ship. If Christopher Monckton had been present, he would have alerted the other first class passengers to a lower deck conspiracy. Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull would have collaborated on an extraordinarily complicated scheme to balance the boat by cutting a matching hole in the other side. Tony Abbot would have described Andrews’ sinking prognosis as a load of crap. Matt Ridley would have told Andrews to be more rationally optimistic. Likewise, John Howard would have had the black armbands off and the boat turned around in no time. George Bush would have had another go at the iceberg.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2011/3191637.htm#transcript

  20. [@paulhowes Our response to one Cerco job lost as a result of closing of Xmas Island will be withdrawal of support from Gillard Government. Villawood ditto.]

  22. Howes wont sue hes a classic hollow man,When I worked in Construction the AWU was know as Australia’s Weakest Union,and the Bosses best friend.
    Howes just wants another cushy job I very much doubt he has done a days hard physical work in his life.

  23. Is it possible that Gillard/Bowen might reluctantly decide to re-open the Nauru detention centre?
    Sure it’d be humiliating for the government, but it might bury the boat people issue for good, and take away from Abbott one of his lines of attack.

  24. [@paulhowes Our response to one Cerco job lost as a result of closing of Xmas Island will be withdrawal of support from Gillard Government. Villawood ditto.]

    Oh, puleeeeese

  26. [Consumer price index rose 1.6pc in March quarter, * April 27, 2011 11:37AM

    THE consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.6 per cent in Australia in the March quarter, for an annual inflation rate of 3.3 per cent, official data shows.

    Economists’ forecasts for the headline consumer price index (CPI) had centred on a rise of 1.2 per cent in the quarter, for an annual pace of 3 per cent.

    Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in January showed the CPI rose by 0.4 per cent in the December quarter with annual rate of 2.7 per cent.]

    Let me remind everyone of the beautiful set of numbers once again:

    1. Unemployment 5%
    2. Inflation 3.3%
    3. Public Debts 7% GDP
    4. RBA Interest rate 4.75%
    5. Growth rate 3.3%
    6. AUD Vs USD 1.08

  29. Aussies don’t like lawbreakers not getting punished and receiving favourable treatment – why on earth did Bowen give visas to the 3 people who were charged with rioting at Christmas Island?
    The government has to nip this thing in the bud, because in my opinion, it’s more damaging to Labor than the Carbon Tax.

  31. 3827 Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 11:55 am | Permalink
    [Just kidding.]
    for fear of an outright pedant war, i won’t call you what i’m thinking

  33. Another reply from Greg Hunt on the HIP program, bloody politicians have this unnerving ability to twist the truth to suit their agenda. grr

    [I respect your view but the rate of housefires under the Program was more than 7 x the historic average, and the rate of defects was 24%.

    Surely an unacceptable outcome,

    Greg]

    To make sure I get my reply right the rate of fires were 1-1 compared to the insulation averages. The 24% he quoted was actually on houses inspected deemed to be faulty correct ?

  34. “The government has to nip this thing in the bud, because in my opinion, it’s more damaging to Labor than the Carbon Tax.”

    They are and there is nothing damaging in doing something about climate change.

  35. Paul_J,

    Sorry to butt in but if you are going to respond to Greg Hunt ask from where is he quoting the 7 x historical average. Because it seems to me that this is false.

  36. Would anyone know re inflation rate did they release the underlying inflation figure ?

    This would give a better picture of how it is all travelling.

  37. Dan
    [Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – KE Boulding page 9]
    Yes that is one of my favourite quotes too. Boulding was also too polite to mention that the two categories can overlap. Being an economist is no barrier to insanity.

    Finns, overall the economic numbers are pretty good, and exceptionally good by OECD standards. However I thought that the inflation figure was actually pretty poor. With the dollar dropping the price of a lot of imports, there is little excuse for so many cost of living items to still be rising. Oil prices only explain a rise in transport, which is rarely more than about 10% of overall production costs.

    There is considerable potential for a carbon tax to put some DOWNWARD pressure on some of these prices, provided we can get effective interstate competition in power supply. However, as I have mentioned many times before, that can’t happen unless higher capacity grid interconnectors are built, notably between Vic, NSW and SA.

    I live in hope that, if we point out every time the consequences of not building adequate infrastructure are politically damaging, eventually politicians might realise they need to fund it.

  38. @ SK

    I suspect he is using sheer numbers over a predetermined period to come up with that figure. As there were 1.1 mill homes done over a short period of time the fire rate would have increased exponentially for the same period.

  39. [I have taken up your observation that Kevin Herbert on Poss may be secretary of acima by asking him directly.]

    I saw that. I wonder if you’ll get a reply?

  40. Socrates
    Excerpt of Bahktiaris address to the Australian Parliament on Peak Oil.
    [“We are entering an era in which we know nothing much, where we have a brand-new set of rules…One of these new rules, in my opinion, is that there will be in the very near future nothing like business as usual. In my opinion, nothing is usual from now on for any of the countries involved. And the lower you are in the pile, the worse it is going to get.”]
    http://www.energybulletin.net/node/29162

  42. It is my understanding that the governemnt has recently dedicated significant resources through Immigration department and ASIO to speed up the process.

    Perhaps more will be allocated in the budget but the effect of these extra resources will take some time to wash through I would think.

    Am I being too simplistic but once the health and security checking process gets some momentum and approval waiting times reduced some of the heat may come out of this argument. Also Minister Bowen has also stated that the process of placing women and children in the community is on track for completion by end June.

  44. Thanks VP I understand the 24% bit was just explaining that to my OH but curious about the 7x historical average and I think I am right with the rate of intallations .

  45. [It is my understanding that the governemnt has recently dedicated significant resources through Immigration department and ASIO to speed up the process.]
    I would think that it is the checking in the country of origin that’s taking the time and will continue to do so.

  46. Doyley

    The yearly inflation rate is projected at 3.3%’ due to increases in petrol, fruit and vegetables, offset by reductions in electrical, furniture and cars.

  49. Socrates
    Denial in AGW is not the only deception being peddled to global citizens.

    [“In ‘Post Peak,’ all of our systems of habits are in mortal danger. Due to the relative cheapness of crude oil (in relation to other, more expensive daily needs), people don’t exactly realize the pivotal role played by its products in their daily routines — as these products have invaded every nook and cranny of our modern life. It is only when the brakes will be pulled (as they inevitably will have to be) that the general public will come to gradually realize the critical importance of ‘black gold’ — which currently provides no less than two-fifths of world energy — and of ‘energy’ in general in their living habits.]

    [“Thus, at present, the global masses seem totally unprepared for the two shocks which will inevitably occur in ‘Post Peak.’ On the one hand, no major institution or medium is willing to inform them seriously on the not-so-palatable consequences of ‘Post Peak’; and, on other hand, specialized institutions (such as the International Energy Agency [IEA], the Energy Information Administration [EIA] and OPEC) as well as some major energy consultancies (e.g., the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and the Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie research outfit) will go on denying ‘Peak Oil’ by issuing rosy future oil output predictions.]

    [“So that the twin shocks are now inevitable on a global scale, as there is no time left to prepare public opinion for ‘Post Peak’ sequels. The shocks will first surprise, then jilt, and finally entangle swaths of people worldwide. Those better prepared will be less inclined to react in a disorderly way and panic when the shocking truth will be unveiled.”]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 77 of 79
1 … 76 77 78 79