Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. If they are through their administrative processes and the legal industry snouters have had their pound of flesh send them back now.

    BW – They will go to jail if cases can be proved.

  2. Same old, same old. Same old and on the nose.

    It is worth going to the Morgan site and having a look at the figures for trusting politicians. They are the lowest level since Mr Howard did the GST in 2000.

    Mr Abbott’s M.A.D. appears to be working a treat.

  3. Joe6pack and bg,

    yeah asylum seekers is an important election issue as long you mugs with NO solutions keep talking about it, otherwise zip it!

  4. Will Mr Windsor support the carbon price legislation?
    Will Mr Wilkie have his way with the pokies?
    Will Mr/Ms someone or other MP have a heart attack?

  5. Don’t worry folk on Sunday you will roll away the stone from the tomb and hallellujah the ALP will have risen from the dead.

    Its all in the script you know.

  6. Julia can still win this election. If the carbon tax is passed without too many problems and the government forces the message across of its achievements, the electorate will side with the progressive party ahead of the do nothings!

    The polls this far out are meaningless.

  7. Julia will progress forward with the governments agenda regardless of the polls.

    Six months before the next election they can present their achievements to the electorate and if they can crash through the barrier of the main stram media with their message – they can win again!

  8. [and if they can crash through the barrier of the main stram media with their message โ€“ they can win again!]

    probably with the help of green preferences

  9. David@bigpond

    If you are around welcome!

    Discussion and differing points of view are more than welcome as Gorgeous Dunny said.

    Life becomes terribly boring if we don’t have differing views.

  10. [If the carbon tax is passed without too many problems and the government forces the message across of its achievements, the electorate will side with the progressive party ahead of the do nothings!]

    Yup, your right, although i am getting a bit annoyed at my fellow Australians for so many of them even considering that Mr Shuddering Brainlock I Run Away From Questions could be electable. ๐Ÿ™

    ETS, NBN, by a minority Govt, will be two amazing achievements politically that need to be locked in and done.

  11. Gus, it’s a 2PP system, otherwise people wouldn’t want to waste their vote on the Greens ๐Ÿ˜‰

    ๐Ÿ˜†

    *knock yourselves out*

  12. Gusface

    It is public offence to mention he-who-must-not-be-named when not in His presence.

    I was pinged earlier for such offence.

  13. [SK, as Frederick the Great once observed: โ€œHe who would defend everything will defend nothing.โ€]

    Bilbo, Sun Tzu also said “Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack”

    i take Sun Tzu anytime over Frederick The Great.

  14. [probably with the help of green preferences]

    Like who cares about that?? Green prefs have been important to the ALP for years.

    I’ll admit i’m a solid ALP voter, and have had my issues with the Greens at times. But, the ALP getting Greens prefs is what it takes in Australia today to not have the rabid right in power. Not perfect, but doable, and that’ll do me.

  15. The Government needs a circuit breaker — the MSM are feral and they will only get worse.

    Howie was having the same problems in 2000-01 — people were whingeing about all manner of things, including petrol prices (shock, horror, they were pushing $1.00/ltr) and nothing would satisfy the electorate… until of course Tampa and Sept 11.

    It’s sad, but the Government is fortunate the election is still over 2 years away — enough time to get on with things and eventually, hopefully, get some benefits of incumbency…

    Do not be surprised if certain folk are moved offshore now. I think everything will be on the table in Cabinet discussions in the coming weeks!

  16. [Centre
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    Julia will progress forward with the governments agenda regardless of the polls.

    Six months before the next election they can present their achievements to the electorate and if they can crash through the barrier of the main stram media with their message โ€“ they can win again!]

    You keep on ignoring the issues that effect the general population and live in your fantasy world. A/s was a positive for the govt. but stupid rioters heve turned into a no win situation for them.

  17. [Big News

    The PM and Mr Mathieson are the first DE FACTO couple to ever meet the Japanese Emporer.

    Go Aussies!!!!]

    She continues to smash glass ceilings for ordinary folk every where. About bloody time some of these old stuffy institutions were acquainted with the real 21st century world!

  18. [but stupid rioters heve turned into a no win situation for them.]

    come on joe i had forgotten about the christmas island riot and that was only recently.
    the gov will not allow this to happen again.

    dont have such a one track negative mind

    i am very angry with these people but we not in their shoes.

    they should not to these things, and the gov should not tell them they have not been granted a visa then leave them to it

    they should be told in a confind area, and then sent back home.

    i think they will learn from this.

    what did howard to i wonder i bet these thing happened
    O gosh i remeber they did all the way out at the desert.
    cannot remember the name of the place,

    but yes they did happen

  19. anyhow it is Easter Thursday, the roads are horrendous, but thankfully myself and drivers are all home and I hope the road toll is not to bad this year. If you do have to drive be careful please. I am looking forward to the kids Easter egg hunt on Sunday ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. i would say the very mild budget will be the circut breaker, bets its not that bad
    gov ,alwasy say this , so the people go o well that was all ok ect
    and i bet there will be a few more so called leaks.
    its easter and the royal wedding now thats realy all people will care about by wed.

  21. [they should not to these things, and the gov should not tell them they have not been granted a visa then leave them to it

    they should be told in a confind area, and then sent back home.]

    Because of the appeals process this cannot happen.

    When they are refused their protection visa, they must be notified. Then they may or may not have review rights — those who can will almost always appeal, which of course delays things further.

    Then when they’ve exhausted their appeal avenues, they need to be removed — but where to? What if no other country will take them? What if they have no documentation and will not apply for any? What if they are refusing to cooperate and escorts will be required?

    That’s where it gets hard — and that’s where you will see people in detention for months.

    Sadly there are no easy solutions here!

    It’s just a shame the media enjoy everyone’s, including the voters’, misery so much!

  22. [A/s was a positive for the govt]

    I can’t remember A/S ever being a positive for this or any other government.

    Bipartisanship in the 70s and 80s made the issue manageable but once Howard played the race card it has been a problem for Labor and Liberal.

  23. [Because of the appeals process this cannot happen.]

    well lets have another area just for those who wish to appeal

    its awful being with people who have been accepted.

    think about it an other way in life in any situation its demoralising

  24. i had to laugh

    my labor friend and i said she would wear those colours to the royal wedding
    well this is royalty so we are bit correct there.

    we both thought something in a beautiful rich burgundy

  25. This is cute – I’d love to see a photo with Julia and Kylie!

    PM keeps mum on Kylie rumours
    Posted 4 hours 35 minutes ago

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard is tight-lipped on rumours pop princess Kylie Minogue will be making an appearance at one of her official engagements in Japan.

    Rumours are swirling the Australian pop princess will attend a gala fundraising dinner organised by the Australian embassy in Tokyo on Friday night.

    Minogue is in Tokyo for concerts on Saturday and Sunday night, but Ms Gillard would not say whether the diva would be at the dinner.

    “To coin a phrase, I understand this has the media spinning around,” she quipped.

    “And to coin another phrase, we should be so lucky.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/21/3198064.htm

  26. [Gillard told the audience Japan could also rely on Australia to supply coal and iron ore as it rebuilt communities destroyed by last month’s earthquake and tsunami.

    She says it will supply other staples too.

    “Wheat for your noodles, barley for your beer, buckwheat for your soba and Aussie beef for your enjoyment,” she said.]

    she knows her stuff, she gets better every day.

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