Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Carbon tax will create economic wasteland: Abbott]
    [But from the other side of the world Mr Abbott himself came under fire from Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, who said his “head in the sand” approach to climate change makes him “almost unique” in the Western world.

    “I haven’t visited another country in my period as Foreign Minister where I’ve discovered the alternative leader, or prime minister, or president of a country with a position like Mr Abbott, which effectively denies that climate change exists and which effectively refuses to consider actions to put a price on carbon,” Mr Rudd said from Paris.
    “If there’s one country which will cop it first in terms of the long-term effects of climate change it’s the dry continent of Australia.”]

    Onya, Kevin

  2. To the extent that there are votes in indigenous affairs (sadly maybe not that many) the Prime Minister seems to have surrendered the field a little by letting the opposition leader in first following press coverage of problems in Alice Springs which triggered her announcement on 24 March.

  3. Dee

    It would not be hard to believe Abbott saying something like that. it was only last week the 7pm project were showing clips of him speaking at a gathering. He recounted a story that a woman said to him that she liked seeing him in his budgie smugglers, but wished he would wear a smaller pair! How grosement!!

  4. sorry I meant to add that Rod may be able to answer Shellbell’s question as to when the PM may visit the NT. He was always up to speed on Aboriginal affairs.

  5. @ Paul J – if you’re still about

    I had a look through the csiro report that possum dissected to see if there were any mentions of 7X

    On page 4:
    [By contrast, during the first 40 days post installation, the Departmental database reports 86 fire service callouts due to insulation-related causes. This corresponds to 7.8 fire callouts per 100,000 dwellings in this category among the houses insulated under HIP Phase 2.

    Dwellings insulated under HIP Phase 2 with Cellulose show a fire callout rate 4 times higher than Glasswool and 6 times higher than Other (mainly Polyester) materials. These differences are statistically significant (P<0.001). The presence of previous insulation material is also a strong risk factor, with a fire callout rate up to 7 times higher in these dwellings.]

  6. A drunk wearing budgie smugglers goes up to a blonde in a bar and tries to chat her up with the patronising line “you are better looking than Julia Gillard”.

    The Blonde is repulsed by the slobbering pest and replies “thanks a lot, and you are as handsome as Tony Abbott”.

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