Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. @ VP

    I sent the link to Greg Hunt as I have had an email exchange with him over a few months on the issue. He has an alternative view and well knows the inns and out’s as he is the opposition spokesman on the issue but he won’t concede an inch. Mind you if i was him I wouldn’t either Rudd said it was flawed so there, which has been his attitude.

  2. joe2
    [the rather pathetic beat up on 7.30 where some women thought her world had collapsed because she would need to spend ten dollars to bring her new house up from 3.5 stars to 5 stars.]

    That wasn’t a beat up as you describe. The point of the report was that consumers are paying extra for a “5 star” energy saving home and there is no proof that the results are being achieved. The software to test the “5 star” level apparently is not testing the real standard of the building. One of the problems is unacknowledged “leakage” through vents, skylights, trapdoors into ceilings etc.

  3. Another reply from Greg Hunt on the HIP program, bloody politicians have this unnerving ability to twist the truth to suit their agenda. grr

    I respect your view but the rate of housefires under the Program was more than 7 x the historic average, and the rate of defects was 24%.

    Surely an unacceptable outcome,

    Greg]

    So WTF does he got the x7 figure from?? I suspect he’s not twisting the truth, but talking complete bollocks on that one, OR doing some very basic maths that would get someone like Poss a little irate.

  4. The worst Kevin Rudd said about the HIP was that it was a “mess”. In some respects it was but not because of the program itself but because of the lack of control over the installers which was surely a States’ issues.

  5. Dee

    Yes one of the biggest misunderstandings of peak oil is that it only affects transport. There will also be a huge impact on food production, due to the widespread curent use of oil based fertilisers. Without them, many countries will be short of food. As usual poor countries that are not in OPEC will feel the pinch first. They will be the first to be priced out of the market. Some remote areas of rural Australia will also struggle to remain viable (if they aren’t already). More productive agricultural areas closer to capitla cities will be less affected, and may actually benefit from the higher food prices.

    This could also greatly increase the number of refugees trying to come to Australia.

  6. I disagree Lizzie. There are problems with the star system and it needs to be regulated better but to make a claim like this, for instance, (from the transcript) is nonsense.

    “MATT PEACOCK: But along with more than 100,000 new homes built every year, the compulsory Australian energy rating on this house may not be worth the paper it’s written on.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3200765.htm

  7. [Swan presser due now wonder if he drops a bucket on the libs over Habib and the wikileaks revelations.]
    Will ABC95 stay for the questions?

  8. abbott really is a bogan compared to jwh,
    i dont imagine howard would say anything like that to a lady in a bar let alone go to one.

    so abbott says he is moving to Nauru well are not these people stupid they would loose their jobs, gee it must be hard to work things out,.

  9. [abbott really is a bogan compared to jwh,
    i dont imagine howard would say anything like that to a lady in a bar let alone go to one.]

    my say:

    Abbott is totally without class. Rudd never behaved like Tone is when he was opposition leader – swanning about in speedos, flirting with barmaids, running off to exercise at the drop of a hat.

    Abbott is an embarrassment and a disgrace.

  10. [paulhowes Our response to one Cerco job lost as a result of closing of Xmas Island will be withdrawal of support from Gillard Government. Villawood ditto.
    3821]

    who would care he is not the actu

  11. lizzie

    Quite right. The “five star” energy rating system is little more than a marketing exercise for builders. It is useless for predicting actual energy consumption of houses. A three star house might easily consume less energy than a five star house, if the stars relate to key things. Terry Williamson of Adelaide Uni Architecture has done some good research on the complete lack of any correlation between house star ratings and actual energy performance.
    http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/terence.williamson
    This is a link to one of his papers and the abstract
    http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a926012616
    [Building regulations in Australia and elsewhere are increasingly directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving an efficient use of energy and water. These regulations significantly impact on aspirations with regard to the building design. Five case study houses recognized in awards from the Australian Institute of Architects are investigated for whether they met the aim and criteria of the relevant regulations for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas reductions. Qualitative and quantitative issues surrounding their environmental performance are examined, including occupants’ comfort and energy consumption. The findings suggest that the assessment processes underpinning the regulations do not correlate well with measured environmental performance, the perceptions of occupiers, and how these houses are actually designed and operated. The regulatory concept of ‘meeting generic needs’ fails to account for the diversity of socio-cultural understandings, the inhabitants’ expectations and their behaviours. In particular, standards and regulations failed to predict adaptive comfort as well as the low-energy consumption in the five case study houses. A governance challenge is to evaluate the interaction of individual preferences, technical concerns, bio-climatic matters, and the socio-cultural context. The goals and behaviours of inhabitants must be recognized and rewarded because they benefit both the environment and the community.]

  12. [MATT PEACOCK: But along with more than 100,000 new homes built every year, the compulsory Australian energy rating on this house may not be worth the paper it’s written on.”

    ]

    whats he suggesting these rating have been around for years and years.

  13. Socrates
    I read it is going to be more dire.

    It’s every facet of food production. From the collection of viable seed,seedlings, growing, processing plants, plastics, packaging etc…

    What about those ‘essentials’ we take for granted?
    Toothpaste, toilet paper, shampoo, soap,blankets, clothing, etc…makeup, hair treatments.

    Our lives have been permeated with food & products that require oil for their processing, production & packaging.

  14. Why do our msm insist on calling refugees arriving by boat to Italy “migrants”. Whilst the small number of boat arrivals here are “illegal boat people”?

  15. So here we have the AUD heading towards US $1.10 refelecting the amazing strength of our economy, inflation low, unemployment low, interest rates historically low, steady growth, company profits and salaries high, so what is reported in the media?

    Totally irrelevant economic issues of asylum seekers and Julia’s dress sense criticised by Gai Waterhouse!

    Um, Gai, stick to getting racehorses to perform at their best naturally lol and leave politics to the politicians you silly billy jilly!

  16. Hockey is now mouthing “the govt is out of touch”. “We are now paying more for fruit and vegetables.”

    Cost of living pressures blah, blah, blah!

  17. Gai’s special talent lies in teaching horses to run in circles faster than other horses running in circles and for being a marketing icon for the racing industry. Her husband was warned off racetracks for years because of his race fixing associated with the Fine Cotton affair. So her judge of character can not always be relied upon.

  18. You are kidding. Tont Abbott went up to a blonde in a bar and said she was better looking than Julia Gillard 😆

    What true charm, what true intelligence, that’s something I would have stopped using in my early twenties 😆 you dropkick!

  19. [Why do our msm insist on calling refugees arriving by boat to Italy “migrants”. Whilst the small number of boat arrivals here are “illegal boat people”?]

    Because they don’t want people thinking that other countries also get refugees? Easier (and more profitable) for them to say that its uniquely an Australian thing.

  20. Leigh Sales:
    [leighsales Leigh Sales
    Tonight: a special report from Political Editor @cuhlmann on the road in Alice Springs looking at the NT intervention. #abc730.]
    Me:
    [@Dan_Gulberry Dan Gulberry
    @leighsales @cuhlmann times his visit to Alice Springs to be with @TonyAbbottMHR #abc730 #surprisesurprisesurprise]

  21. [Why do our msm insist on calling refugees arriving by boat to Italy “migrants”. Whilst the small number of boat arrivals here are “illegal boat people”?]

    becasue they the bogans will think the ones in italy got visas before they came and where also now citezens of italy

  22. [You are kidding. Tont Abbott went up to a blonde in a bar and said she was better looking than Julia Gillard]
    Surely, that is bullshite???????????

  23. socrates

    Thank you for picking up on that. I’m not feeling well enough today to argue the point myself, but have often been suspicious of homes that are supposedly star-quality but still need air-conditioners, for example.

  24. [Space Kidette
    Posted Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Hockey is now mouthing “the govt is out of touch”. “We are now paying more for fruit and vegetables.” ]

    What? Nobody told him there were floods in Queensland and Victoria?

  25. Gorgeous Dunny,

    I don’t know what planet the Coalition are living on. I am sure their food just falls from the sky and neatly arranges itself on Royal Doulton platters.

  26. What was that Paris Hilton joke Hockey used in a presser once and there was Abbott laughing like a schoolboy?

    What a sad advertisment for alternative PM. Abbott is just sooo not suited for any leader position!

  27. Dan

    Do you know when the Prime Minsiter is visiting Alice Springs? She announced a visit on 24 March 2011 but I cannot find out when she is going.

  28. Believe it or not, I think I found somebody in Victoria that listens to “Oh, Mike”. Old chap in the cab today gave me a long spiel about how bad it was for Gillard to go to Japan when Anzac Day was occurring.

    I mentioned that she actually attended a service at Korea to honour our 38 dead. It didn’t cut any ice. Still bad to be anywhere near Japan. Not fit to be PM, etc., etc.

    Have had him a few times and he’s rather a nice old feller on anything else but that. Makes for variety, I suppose.

  29. rishane

    Yes I know. The msm here shit me to no end. 25,000 refugee arrivals to Italy in a few months certainly makes our problems look quite ridiculous.

  30. Lizzie,

    After the floods I predicted a rate rise either mid year (to pre-empt post flood inflation) or mid last half of the year (to soften inflationary effects) of people getting money from insurance co’s to replace goods, rebuild houses, wages paid to construction, infrastructure builds and fruit and vegies starting to come back on line.

    It is not rocket science. I don’t think one single Coalition MP has ever studied Economics for Dummies. Pretty sad really.

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