Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. HAYDENCOOPER | 2 minutes ago
    [Will have a story on 730 tonight about Japan’s fishermen – getting hammered by radiation fears]

  5. [http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/21/3198163.htm?section=justin
    Harvey Norma sales well down. Share price hits 2 year low.
    All the excuses in the world.
    Except ONE – the one Gerry would see if he stood in front of a mirror.
    Have a nice Easter Gerry!]

    Thanks, BK!

    Finally some good news from their ABC.

    Suffer in your jocks, Gerry!

  6. GOSH I NEVER NEW I WAS IN MORGAN

    HOW AMAZING,

    how did i get here.

    well i’m more convinced than ever there is a poll in Franklyn’s third draw

    becasue even this makes Nielsen look silly.

    now this is better than an Easter egg. much better

    but a good excuse to eat my rocky road.

  7. [Harvey Norma sales well down.]

    I’m sure that Gerry Harvey drawing attention to internet purchasing and how his stores couldn’t compete on price had some bearing on this result.

    What a thick head.

  8. [Immigration Minister Chris Bowen says protesters who took to the roof of the Villawood Detention Centre in Sydney had already had their refugee claims rejected.]

    Exactly!

    So what can one do?

    Solitary confinement (very expensive) once refused?

  10. i wondered over to our great nice clean beautiful store to get a computer memory stick

    Clive peters store.

    to be greeted by a we are closed. I ask why the boy said, because tomorrow thats today we will be harvey norman.

    i said o dear then bye bye we have local store born and bread in tas, thats where i am headed,

  11. Darren Laver @ 44

    Well put!

    “For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong!”

    And so it is with this. There is just no simple solution except in simple minds like ‘Noddy’ Abbott and ‘Creepy’ Morrison’s.

  14. but of course i have to remeber these are fanchises so have to support the local person
    so suppose i will go there.
    ah so sad when stores have to close.

  15. [have a story on 730 tonight about Japan’s fishermen – getting hammered by radiation fears]

    a bit refreshing having other stories other than polics, shame its not mr cannane
    doing the show.

  19. As I suspected, ABC TV news in Melbourne reported the child porn charge and later the resignation separated by several other stories. Normally they would put multiple stories from the same state together. They even showed the SA oppn leader demanding an explanation for the resignation, as though no one has any idea what he reason could be.

  20. I do like this gentle put-down by Combet in his Unleashed article on Hunt’s misquotations.

    [My argument is not with Glenn Milne, although I suggest that next time he gets material from Mr Hunt he may like to check its accuracy before reprinting it in full.]

  24. I’m sure that Glenn Milne will apologise for the misquotes now that it has been pointed out to him. Sorry have to run, just saw a flying pig.

  25. [The fact that Mr Hunt has had to revert to an amateur display of high school debating tactics by circulating incomplete quotes says more about Mr Hunt than it does about the Government.

    The fact is that Mr Hunt has no substantial argument to run, has failed to address criticism of the Coalition’s Direct Action policy, and failed to respond substantively to the Government’s arguments on carbon price.

    The community deserves more from Mr Hunt on this issue. It is frankly time he grew up and engaged on the substance of this important economic and environmental debate.]

    Will Mr Hunt respond to Mr Combet’s accurate character appraisal?

  26. PT

    😀
    It must be very for the Oppn to go about their nefarious business, with enough pigs flying over their heads to blot out the sun!

  29. [can someone lend the IPA a calculator?]

    Doesn’t bolt have one stuck up his bum that he’s not using that they could borrow.

  36. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @leighsales Obviously, the new #TheirABC interviewing style is to be rude , interruptive and disruptive #abc730 you have caught the disease
    12 seconds ago

  37. If there’s one thing that always drives me up the wall, it’s when someone interrupts my well-crafted sentences and stops me from making my points. 😀 I don’t know how Bowen can hold his temper.

  42. I just posted this on the 7:30 website.
    [What on EARTH has got into Leigh Sales tonight? Her interview of Minister Bowen was possibly the rudest I have ever seen. Such a barrage of interruptions was totally unacceptable.
    If and when Mr Abbott makes an appearance please use the Bowen interview as a comparator.
    I know the outcome already. ]
    Arrrrrrrghhhhhh!!!!

  43. Glad I don’t watch their ABC.

    It sounds as if their 7:30 program has gone from bad to worse.

    Gotcha journalism — so pathetic, so lazy.

  44. My Say
    I have to admit the error of my ways and that your are totally correct in that the next poll is in fact 2.5 years away. Having had dinner in Canberra with senior TA staff member they are utterly convinced no indie will cross or go early under any circumstance before absolutely the full term. The logic is that the higher they go in the polls makes it less and less likely of an early election therefore running against indie self interest. No chance of KR going before term . Only chance therefore I’ll health or legal scandal in a Labor marginal.

  48. [I might add that the moderation at the 7:30 website is more than two days late.]

    BK, you mean Bilbo has been slacked again?

  49. I was being facetious, but raising the Oceanic Viking was fair enough. That was a disgraceful cave-in.

    Maybe some of it was uncalled for, but in general Leigh needed to get tougher. Maybe she’s on the way now.

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