Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Unfortunately, I have to admit that if Leigh Sales had attacked any of the Lib shadows in that way, I would have cheered her to the rafters.
    I admit it. I’m biased.
    But the Coal have the art of senseless waffle done and dusted.

  2. triton
    If their treatment were even handed I wouldn’t mind. Searching and critical examination – as evidenced by Cannane recently – is what is needed.

  3. [If Sales were any better tonight she’d have been atrocious!
    Strewth, I’m pissed off!!]

    BK:

    Perhaps I’ll read the transcript tomorrow. I no longer watch the show, such is my assessment of how it’s denigrated since Red Kerry left.

  4. Hi Peeps,
    I do not understand how one brother can be given asylum as a refugee and the other brother is denied refugee status. It seems strange, but that is what was reported about one of the asylum seekers who is on the roof of the detention centre.

  5. [Fiz
    Posted Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
    Cannae is one of the few journalists who seems to get across his detail prior to interviewing. It’s pretty clear he should be the senior political journalist. He works for his bucks.]

    I think Leigh Sales is trying to show she has researched in preparation for the interview, she keep checking notes and spouting figures and trying to get gotcha moments.
    I would think the number of comments similar to the above, being posted here and on their website and elsewhere might be hitting home.

  8. [If their treatment were even handed I wouldn’t mind.]

    Let’s see how she goes with the next opposition MP. It’s still early days for the new 7.30.

    P.S. I like Leigh, so I’m biased.

  9. Bummer — lost my cut ‘n’ paste!

    I said wtte: Good work MR Combet. Challenged press to look for truth and not press releases.

  10. [I do not understand how one brother can be given asylum as a refugee and the other brother is denied refugee status.]

    Surely it is rather simple, they are two different people.

  12. @Ms Adventure 105
    [I would think the number of comments similar to the above, being posted here and on their website and elsewhere might be hitting home.]
    Are you saying that Cannane tries to get “gotcha” moments?
    Only asking because haven’t seen him, and I do remember Sales relentless interviewing style on LL regardless of political stripe.
    (Unable to watch TV because of antenna problems)

  13. I have stopped watching 730 so didn’t see tonight.

    But I’ve never seen Salas as much of an interviewer. Comes across as a *D* grader.

    On the eve of Easter, very few would have watch the program tonight either.

    Might as well be amateur hour. Hang on, probably was.

  15. the asylum seeker issue is now a non issue regarding the next fed .election for labor.
    The best they should do is try to bury any reference to as

  16. [I do not understand how one brother can be given asylum as a refugee and the other brother is denied refugee status. It seems strange, but that is what was reported about one of the asylum seekers who is on the roof of the detention centre.]

    In that case, if I was the brother with the visa, I’d be starting to worry about a deportation order.

  17. [Yes, I agree, that is very simplistic.]

    Mal Meninga is not like his brother, who is in jail for murder. What is your point?

  20. [kezza2
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    @j6p
    Temper, temper
    Your 115 totally contradicts your 118]

    Do you agree with what the rioters did in villawood?

  23. [I do not understand how one brother can be given asylum as a refugee and the other brother is denied refugee status. It seems strange, but that is what was reported about one of the asylum seekers who is on the roof of the detention centre.]

    I do. Denial can be on many grounds. What if one brother is a good citizen and the other is a criminal? Not saying that is the case, of course, but it certainly would be grounds. Probably lots of others that we know nothing about.

  25. [Do you agree with what the rioters did in villawood?]

    Do you still beat your wife?

    There are two issues, the interview which did nothing to educate anyone and the issue. You seem to be saying they are the same.

  29. [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

    Do you agree with what the rioters did in villawood?

    Do you still beat your wife? ]

    That is extremely offensive. apologize.

  30. There is too much whingeing here about interviewing styles.

    Personally, I think any half decent interviewer will conduct a probing interview and give politicians a hard time. I have no objection at all to how Leigh Sales interviewed Chris Bowen. Apart from anything else, it gave Bowen the opportunity to confront and deal with the hard questions, which he did well.

    The real issue is that the opposition should be treated in the same way. Like that memorable Steve Cannane interview of Greg Hunt on Lateline where Hut looked a fool. Or the Mark Riley interview of Abbott where he was reduced to incoherent rage.

  33. Kezza

    No I don’t think Cannane goes for Gotchas. He is a good interviewer, researches in preparation and conducts a well mannered and intelligent interview.

    I thought she was trying to prove she is tough and incisive by pushing hard and seeming to be on top of the subject under discussion.

  37. I would have thought that if they come from the same region, though maybe they do not, they would share whatever social aspects that may be contributing to the refugee status, and if the one brother needs asylum, then does whatever he did or had done to him also may put the other one at risk too?

    I am a bit intrigued by this.

  38. [Do you agree with what the rioters did in villawood?]

    is as offensive as:

    [Do you still beat your wife?]

    but

    [are you still rorting the system for cancer?]

    is much worse.

    Joe6pack — you make Frank look like an angel!

  40. Joe6pack @ 135

    Calm down Joe. That question is an old one to illustrate the type of question where you cannot give a satisfactory answer. It is not meant to suggest you really beat your wife.

    But your sharp reaction is rather concerning. Is Mrs 6pack OK? 😛

  42. [I would have thought that if they come from the same region, though maybe they do not, they would share whatever social aspects that may be contributing to the refugee status, and if the one brother needs asylum, then does whatever he did or had done to him also may put the other one at risk too?

    I am a bit intrigued by this.]

    Puff — methinks this govt is being very careful about every aspect of AS checking. I have a sister who I never see (once a year at Xmas) and we live completely different types of lives.

    I don’t think I am an anomaly (she, on the other hand…..)

  43. joe

    Try googling “loaded question” the classic example is “do you still beat your wife”. You may never have heard of it, but it is a classic example of the “fallacy of many questions”.

    So, no I will not apologise for your lack of education.

  44. [Bullshit . I have never in any posts brought up someones family etc. especially allegations of beating up thee wife/partner]

    And where has ruawake ever suggested he or anyone supported rioters??

    You really don’t get it do you?

  45. bemused

    I think it recognizes words that are used constantly and adds them automatically. I must have not typed the word “Gillard” enough to self correct!

  46. [Darren Laver
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

    Do you agree with what the rioters did in villawood?

    is as offensive as:

    Do you still beat your wife?]

    not even close

Comments are closed.

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