Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. BENFORDHAM | 2 minutes ago
    [I reckon @LaurieOakes is lucky to have @lcalcutt as his new wingman at the Channel 9 office at Parliament House. #legends

  2. Righto then

    All the asylum seekers in villawood should not get asylum . send them home if they don.t admit where they are from send them back to baxter until they find some country to take them.
    Send them to Narau or wherever they will be welcome and safe. Isn’t that all they want? to be away from persecution?Or is it economic asylum? well in a pacific island they will be free from persecution.
    I.ll tell you all this for free this is what the majority of aus. think at the moment as is reflected in polls. suck it up.

  3. What proportion of the Villawood detainees would be boat people? Surely the detainees in Villawood would be mostly plane arrivals rather than boaties?

  4. J6P @152.
    There are things about you I appreciate and admire, but for goodness sakes, grow a spine over the asylum seeker debate. That sort of mindless reactionary drivel is (or should be) beneath you.

    Unless of course you are using irony.

  5. J6P @ 152
    And if no country will take them? Australia has them and will be stuck with them. Afghanistan is talking about refusing to take them back. Others may do the same.

    So what then Joe?

  6. @j6p 152
    There, don’t you feel better?
    That’s the way you felt about asylum seekers all the time.
    Could almost see you rubbing your hands together with glee at the thought of them rioting. Could vent your spleen about them while simultaneously being vindicated

    But what about this bloke in Villawood:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/deporting-brit-against-alp-principles/story-fn7x8me2-1226040603113
    do you think he should be deported?

  7. J6p

    The aboriginal people had no choice but to accept the boat people landing on their shores. They could not send them back to where they came from

  8. BK:

    There would also be those waiting to be deported: visa breaches and overstayers, illegal workers, people like that UK bloke with criminal history. It would indeed be an interesting set of figures.

  9. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    J6P @152.
    There are things about you I appreciate and admire, but for goodness sakes, grow a spine over the asylum seeker debate. That sort of mindless reactionary drivel is (or should be) beneath you.

    Unless of course you are using irony.]
    I am actually just repeating comments I have heard this week from travel’s between noosa,sydney.canberra,dubbo.narrarbri, toowoomba.

    The beat your wife comment though I find offensive and i Don’t care what loaded ? site people try and justify it from.

  10. I always find it ironic that Aussies don’t want people landing on their doorstep uninvited. Yet unless you are indigenous to this country, or a recent migrant. Everyone that came before were boat people.

  11. Joe6pack @ 152
    [All the asylum seekers in villawood should not get asylum.]
    Including those not involved in the violence?

    You really don’t seem to think very hard.

  12. Joe6pack @ 162
    [The beat your wife comment though I find offensive and i Don’t care what loaded ? site people try and justify it from.]
    Your ignorant response makes me concerned about Mrs 6packs welfare.

  13. It used to be ALP policy, and I think it still is, to return the detention centres to Dept of Immigration control. That is to dump the private contractors who now run them.

    Serco may be in a bit of poo.

  14. [The beat your wife comment though I find offensive and i Don’t care what loaded ? site people try and justify it from.]

    It wasn’t being justified, it was being explained what such a type of question means.

  15. [yes he is a career criminal who would not take out aus. citizenship. Bad luck for him.]

    He could not take out citizenship … as he was a criminal (who apparently shot a cop). Imagine the hoohaa from the opps if he’d been granted citizenship!

  16. [emused
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    Joe6pack @ 162

    The beat your wife comment though I find offensive and i Don’t care what loaded ? site people try and justify it from.

    Your ignorant response makes me concerned about Mrs 6packs welfare.]

    She is fine you condescending prat. Again I have never bought up any one’s partner here.

  17. [It used to be ALP policy, and I think it still is, to return the detention centres to Dept of Immigration control.]

    Private management of these types of facilities has been a failure. Just like with prisoner transport. The risks outweigh the benefits in my view.

  18. Anyone watching ‘Girls own war stories’ on ABC1?

    Interesting stuff. Puts some of the current bs about women in the services into perspective.

  19. J6p
    You are welcome to take the bywife comment anyway you choose. I didn’t use it. I am just giving you the factual background to the common use of the phrase. No skin off my nose how you take that info.

    After what you said about asylum seekers I am glad to hear you do not beat your wife. It is a pity you (in virtuality) beat on asylum seekers instead.

  20. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    J6p

    What is your attitude about the thousands of convicts who came by boat to Australia. They were criminals]
    Don’t be silly comparing 1700’s to 2010’s reality.

  21. Joe

    Have you ever, in your lifelong education, been exposed to the study of logic? Or maybe philosophy? Or perhaps critical thinking?

    Others have. 😉

  22. Joe6pack @ 172
    [She is fine you condescending prat. Again I have never bought up any one’s partner here.]
    And no one brought up yours.

    I will wear your ‘condesending prat’ epithet. It beats being a total ignoramous.

  23. [She is fine you condescending prat. Again I have never bought up any one’s partner here.]

    Joe, the question was never about your partner, it is used as the classic example of a loaded question.

  24. ruawake @ 177
    [Joe

    Have you ever, in your lifelong education, been exposed to the study of logic? Or maybe philosophy? Or perhaps critical thinking?

    Others have. 😉 ]

    Or any type of thinking.

  25. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    J6p
    You are welcome to take the bywife comment anyway you choose. I didn’t use it. I am just giving you the factual background to the common use of the phrase. No skin off my nose how you take that info.

    After what you said about asylum seekers I am glad to hear you do not beat your wife. It is a pity you (in virtuality) beat on asylum seekers instead.]

    So by the tone of this comment anyone who doesn’t follow the line of all a/s should be released must be nudge/nudge a wife beater redneck racist>

  26. How about we all pretend that Joe responded to the beat your wife question with “only at Scrabble”. We can all have a good chuckle and move on.

  27. j6p

    I think you are missing the point. Those detainees who were rioting and causing damage were very wrong to do so. Their applications had been rejected, and they lost the plot. Not acceptable behaviour. But things are never simple, as I have tried to illustrate regarding how Australia came to be the country it is now.

  28. Victoria,
    Yes, I agree. And I am very concerned about the use of commercial companies to run these centres. I think that is where the root of the problem lies.

  29. Don’t agree with me all you want I am merely repeating what my thoughts and observations are from traveling this week. If you all know better ,and I admit I have no uni. education and am proved wrong at the next election well good on you. But in saying this if I get the impression that in a tear or so labor are winning that is what I will say.
    But to blindly follow and attack me when I don’t agree is funny for this uneducated smuck.

  30. J6P

    It’s just an example of a question which is so loaded that no matter what the answer you give, you look bad. There really is no suggestion about you or your wife, but it often is taken that way.

    For the record, I don’t think your question about agreeing with what the rioters were doing was really loaded, but that is by the by now.

  31. victoria

    How true, things are never simple. Yet we have a media that wants simple answers to complex questions. A media that asks loaded questions in an attempt at the “gotcha” walkley award.

    We also have some sections of society that can only see things in monochrome.

    What a shame. 🙁

  32. [kezza2
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    But what about this bloke in Villawood:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/deporting-brit-against-alp-principles/story-fn7x8me2-1226040603113
    do you think he should be deported?

    yes he is a career criminal who would not take out aus. citizenship. Bad luck for him.

    He was not a ciminal at six years of age.
    He learned his trade in Australia. He is an Australian.
    He should not be deported on those grounds alone.]

    He is a uk citizen who did not take out aust.citizenship so we have every rite to deport this criminal like we did with James Finch.

  33. [Don’t agree with me all you want I am merely repeating what my thoughts and observations are from traveling this week…]

    Joe, don’t put yourself down – your observations and thoughts are as valuable as the next blogger’s in helping to complete the electoral jigsaw puzzle.

  34. It is nothing to do with uni education, J6p, it is about accessing real and accurate information about asylum seekers and forming views based on that, not the reactionary crap that is run in the media. It is also about courage. It is about not shivering in fear of a handful of people who land on our shores each year seeking refugee status and having the courage to take our international treaties seriously.

  35. @j6p
    We may technically have every right to deport Clifford Tucker, but for all intents and purposes, he is an Australian.

    As an aside, I must apologise for the appalling way I treated you a few weeks ago.

  36. [Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

    j6p

    I think you are missing the point. Those detainees who were rioting and causing damage were very wrong to do so. Their applications had been rejected, and they lost the plot. Not acceptable behavior. But things are never simple, as I have tried to illustrate regarding how Australia came to be the country it is now.]

    I am not missing any point. All i was stating that any goodwill the a/s have built up is now null and void because of the actions of the riots not just in villawood but CI . beforehand.
    Now believe me or not but this is a issue in aus. at the moment but if you think I am a uneducated fellow who will see the light come election time well fine. we will see.

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