Newspoll has conducted its usual fortnighly poll from a normal sample of 1151, but for some reason The Australian only provides results for preferred Labor leader. This offers yet more evidence that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd, with the former favoured by 29 per cent against 36 per cent for the latter, with 10 per cent opting for Wayne Swan. The Australian’s report leads with the news that “only one in 10 voters back Wayne Swan as their preferred Labor leader”, which hardly comes as a surprise. Swan’s inclusion in the mix distinguishes the poll from previous Newspoll efforts six weeks ago and early last year, as does a six point hike in the undecided rating from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.
Today also saw the weekly Essential Research poll, which had Labor slipping another point on two-party preferred to trail 54-46. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, with Labor and the Greens steady on 35 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Contra Nielsen, the poll finds a slight increase in support for the carbon tax, with support up five points on a fortnight ago to 39 per cent and opposition down two to 49 per cent. If “the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, support is 51 per cent (down three points) and opposition 33 per cent (up three points). Support for the National Broadband Network has increased since a dip in February, up six points to 54 per cent with opposition down three to 28 per cent. There are also two questions on Israel-Palestine which do not to my mind prove terribly illuminating.
jv
Windsor has been saying that from the get go.
BB
What was the Wilkie story designed to do?
[EVERYONE in the south-west yesterday had their own big bang theory.
Was it an earthquake? Did Tower Hill erupt into action? Did a meteor shower crash to earth, or was it an alien invasion?
The “big bang” was heard about 1am yesterday, with reports of an “explosion” shaking homes in Winslow, Warrnambool and Terang.
“The whole house shook and there was an almighty noise, like a roar,” one Warrnambool resident said yesterday.
“It had my curtains moving and set my car alarm off.”
The noise was said to be accompanied by flashes of light that were variously described as being pink, orange and yellow, and seen as far away as Mortlake and Heywood.
Perry Vlahos, media liaison for the Astronomical Society of Victoria (ASV), said it was likely that the bang and the flashes of light were caused by a meteor]
http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/the-southwests-big-bang-the-truth-is-out-there/2134806.aspx
[Danielle_Post $20 million for National Arboretum….PM makes announcement as she plants a tree, cultivated from Tree of Knowledge.]
Noice.
Abbott tours iron ore mines in the Pilbara
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/19/3195254.htm?section=justin
Isn’t this strange!
[Mr Mathieson, his daughter Sherry, and a friend of hers popped in on Friday evening to visit Ms Gillard’s office.
The guards knew who Mr Mathieson was but their bureaucratic masters forbid them to admit anybody without a valid pass. The awkward standoff ended when the Herald vouched for Mr Mathieson and signed him and his guests into the building. They were given ”unescorted” passes.
It is difficult to imagine Janette Howard or Therese Rein being treated with such suspicion.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/first-bloke-finally-gets-the-royal-treatment-20110418-1dlrz.html#ixzz1Jv8Cgbev
Essential Research indicates general support for a carbon price if there is adequate compensation for most people.
Labor was on the nose before the carbon tax announcement. It’s not so much the tax but the broken promise which is the killer, reinforcing perceptions that JG the assassin can’t be trusted.
Abbott obviously heeds market research in continuously banging away about school halls, pink batts and new taxes.
According to last night’s posts, Richo was on channel 7 news saying wtte that if Gillard does not dump carbon tax she is dead in the water. Can anyone verify this?
Dee,
He might have been carrying scissors.
TT
Will Abbott bang on about them for the next two years? Imagine if Rudd was still at the helm, the ranting would have gone unabated
An interesting night on markets. Main thing was the ratings agency S&P putting the US on negative watch for possible downgrade. But this bit on Greek debt is also very interesting.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/next-phase-of-sovereign-debt-crisis.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
Toorak Toff
What I cannot reconcile is that voters cannot get over a politician breaking one promise, yet, support another politician who couldn’t lie straight in bed, is a consistant verbal stuff up who has no vision for the nation.
Visitors arrived!
See ya! 🙂
Dee
Catch you later
JV, the upside to the poor polling is that it’s locking Labor more firmly into carbon pricing. The Windsor comments are also interesting. Like the Greens he won’t back an ineffectual program, which I think the first attempt was.
Bernard Keane is also keen:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/04/18/sorry-you-cant-support-a-carbon-price-but-not-want-any-change/
I’m glad Combet is at the forefront with Gillard. It does call for very serious holding-your-nerve qualities. But rationally… there’s nowhere else to go. Squib it and they’ll get slaughtered at the next election. Ditto for another leadership coup. The only option is to stay the course.
They’ll go on taking hits, either in the polls or more continually in the media or both, at least until July and the program details are nutted out. After that it gets better. Oodles of time before an election.
[Abbott obviously heeds market research in continuously banging away about school halls, pink batts and new taxes.]
Maybe, maybe not. Equally likely is, he’s incapable of changing the record. This isn’t a character who is know for originality. His whole motivation as an ultra-conservative is about staying in a groove, where nothing changes, and the same old dirge gets rerun again and again.
GD
Spot on. they really do need to hold their nerve.
[Tony Windsor interview on ABC 24 just now – he said he will support a well structured carbon plan if the rest of the world is taking ]
as i said before he would be in the know about it as he is on the committee
may be he is sending a message to everyone, But on the other hand i couldn’t see him being extreme either he has farming constituents to think of
so a good carbon price for Mr, Windsor would mostly likely be acceptable to Julia also.
cannot imagine it being over the top at all he is not a green remember and i think bob brown has to conciliatory as he knows its the last chance
Will Newspoll release its 2PP numbers tonight? I wonder why they held it back? Just didn’t want to clash with Neilsen, or is it not as bad a set of numbers I wonder.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 9:31 am | Permalink
According to last night’s posts, Richo was on channel 7 news saying wtte that if Gillard does not dump carbon tax she is dead in the water. Can anyone verify this?
109 bluegreen[
]]
No i immediatly went to 7 news there was nothing there was a list of political news i clicked on the lot nothing.
i think a bit of trolling was going on.,
in future when some one makes a very very serious statement like this in my opinon there should be a link,. and william should say so.
Look i may be wrong but i even googled the statement to see if it was elsewhere and checked other news outlets
[What I cannot reconcile is that voters cannot get over a politician breaking one promise, yet, support another politician who couldn’t lie straight in bed, is a consistant verbal stuff up who has no vision for the nation.]
The “broken promise” is a convenient hook on which hateradio talkers and right wing followers hang their spite and sour grapes at still being in Opposition.
If anything, her saying “there won’t be a carbon price under a government I lead” would have COST her votes. With progressives and those wavering Green. But the right wing moaners are impying the opposite – that it helped her WIN votes. You can’t believe a word they say, their denunciation of JuLIAR is pure right-wing projection, in my opinion.
Actually, I am in favour of affordable, accessible childcare. It is a basic requirement for women to engage in all aspects of our society, including work and education. It is costly so the resources need to be means tested. I also think the government should be directly providing the care, not subsidising the private childcare industry. For a start, all schools could have a childcare centre onsite, funded by the feds, a before and after-school program be available for school-aged kids, and the school day lengthened, with some of the extra time used for physical activities or games, art, music and drama etc.
Work and higher education sites should, where they can, have on-site facilities, and Australians could always stop donating the billions in unpaid overtime to their employers and working long paid hours, and stay home with their kids.
After that the private childcare industry can pick up the slack.
Now, that is a lot of ‘shoulds’, most of which in reality will have no chance of getting a guernsey, but that is a brief rundown of my beliefs for the welfare of children, womens’ participation, mens’ increased involvment in child-raising and social equity.
A sane article on carbon pricing, well I never:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/04/18/sorry-you-cant-support-a-carbon-price-but-not-want-any-change/
Given time we might even see one in the age, heart attack territory if we see one in the Australian.
Windsor didn’t vote for the CPRS as it didn’t go far enough as he sees it and has warned that unless this is more effective he won’t support it either. I read into this that 5% is not enough for Windsor to get his vote.
I have yet to receive a response from my letter to the PM
[Dear Prime Minister,
I write to you in my role as CEO of the Lobbyist and Rentseekers Association of Australia (LRAA). The LRAA represent the 1000 peak lobby group, rent seekers and all-round whingers. The LRAA are deeply concerned that the sheer amount of reform you are undertaking is putting a strain on our industry. We are calling on the government to deliver a crisis assistance package immediately to ease the pressure on our groups. We cannot keep up with the amount of lobbying and noise-making required to squeal for yours and the publics attention. With the mining tax, the flood levy, the carbon tax, gambling reforms, tobacco reforms and Murray Darling Basin reforms we are struggling to meet the demand to staff the volume of campaigns that are required.
So we are calling on the government to provide an immediate skills and industry suport package including:
-An immediate boost to tertiary education places in Public Relations,
-Incentives for people to move from mining boom towns to downtown Canberra,
-Designated lobbyist lanes on the Hume Highway between Sydney and Canberra,
-Tax concessions for long liquid lunches with MPs
-Training in ‘how to conduct a Lindsay focus group’
This is the bare level of assistance our industry requires to survive this crunch time. If you do not respond to this correspondence then we will be obliged to undertake a lobbyists revolt.
Kind regards,]
That’s great BlueGreen. You forgot to mention though that competing peak lobby groups overseas are not subject to the level of rentseeking that Australian rentseekers are required to do.
bluegreen@94
On what he’s saying I think he’s supporting action based on Garnaut. Why else would he be wheeling Garnaut around his electorate and be talking about not taking weak action?
He cannot commit to that at this stage, however, and must wait for the joint outcome of the MPC where he will be but one member owning the outcome.
bg
Perhaps you should have sent your letter to Abbott? 🙂
Paul_J@124
Yes, and we know – and Windsor knows – that 25% by 2020 virtually costs no more than does 5% on the Treasury modelling.
Burgey
I suspect Newspoll did not want to be overshadowed by Nielsen or Essential.
my say
I can’t remember off hand who it was that supposedly saw this?
[Kit
Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 9:51 am | Permalink
That’s great BlueGreen. You forgot to mention though that competing peak lobby groups overseas are not subject to the level of rentseeking that Australian rentseekers are required to do.]
Of course- rent-seeker leakage!
Great letter, bg.
Where is Newspoll? Did they only poll on leaders this fortnight?
my say
I should have added who saw Richo make these comments
[Can you deal with Barnaby Joyce?
TONY WINDSOR: Well, I’ll answer the first part first if I could. (laughs) I don’t deal with fools terribly lightly and I think under any definition the man’s a fool.]
he he he
Morning all.
b_g – thankyou for the Mal Washer post on marine parks. I will send it to my grubby federal politician and the new State one who paraded around the electorates before the elections (and since) gloating that they will cancel marine parks.
I’m in a beaut spot with lots of lakes and marine parks declared by NSW Labor with the backing of Fed Labor.
O’Farrell has vowed to overturn the marine parks and the fishing blokes who complain now will be screaming in a few years, as they have done in the past, that the place is being overfished. I’ll be laughing all the way to the ballot box.
On polling day last August the Fishing Party bods had the cheek to ask me to watch their stand for the day while they chased off to other booths. In their dreams!
Mal Washer is hanging out with the wrong mob.
bg
Did Windsor really call Barnaby a fool?
Vic
Check for yourself
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3195156.htm
BH
Mal Washer is a politician that thinks. It was a good piece and would not be populaur locally.
Victoria,
Who hasn’t called Barnaby a fool?
Anyway, see yuz all later, peeps.
The PM warns that Barnaby could be deputy PM
[
JULIA Gillard has seized on the prospect of maverick Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce taking his party’s leadership, warning that would make him deputy prime minister under a future Coalition government.
The Nationals’ Senate leader has confirmed he is considering a move to the House of Representatives, and is eyeing off the NSW seat of New England, held by independent Tony Windsor.
The sometimes erratic Senator Joyce is viewed within the party as a potential successor to Nationals leader Warren Truss.
Ms Gillard said if Senator Joyce became Nationals leader he would become deputy prime minister in an Abbott government and acting prime minister when Mr Abbott travelled overseas.
“I understand Barnaby Joyce is now hunting around for a lower house seat,” she said in Canberra.
“What I think this means is Tony Abbott should come clean about the nature of the team he will take to the next election.”
Mr Windsor, who has called Senator Joyce a “fool”, said if the Queenslander was serious about contesting the seat of New England he should immediately resign from parliament and begin campaigning.
]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-warns-barnaby-joyce-could-be-deputy-pm-under-a-future-coalition-government/story-fn59niix-1226041388861
The bring-back-Rudders are getting (even more) tiresome.
Barnarby Joyce Deputy PM would be the gift that keeps on giving especially if he moved to NSW with a completely different press gallery to QLD.
Interesting discussion this morning on the ABC with Deb Cameron interviewing Andrew Maine from the Australian as she does each Tuesday morning.
He was saying there is a lot of ambit claiming going on with the companies opposing the Carbon Tax. WTTE that most European countries have had one for seven years and both China and India are moving towards cleaning up their game as well.
Deb Cameron read a list apparently from the SMH last Saturday which named all the major companies including miners who support the carbon tax. Did say however that the miners are concerned about the impact of the double impact of the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax. My impression of his comments was that it is inevitable.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Election-2010-hung-parliament-Gillard-Labor-Abbott-pd20100823-8KSTS?OpenDocument&src=sph
Business Spectator, 23 August 2010:
[… Tony Windsor, who has described Barnaby Joyce as a fool – and that’s the mildest of his views on Joyce … Neither does Bob Katter have any great affection for Joyce in particular or the Nationals in general.]
___
Seeya Puff!
Gotta feel a little bit sorry for Frank…..he looks so lonely over at Twitter…… 🙁
“Bilbo banned me based on a self -confessed Troll – Talk abouut a guutless wonder. Whinge on PB about it.
[$20 million for National Arboretum….PM makes announcement as she plants a tree, cultivated from Tree of Knowledge.]
Has Abutbut commented about how unfair this is, a Labor tree and all?
I guess he is too busy in the mines of Moria. Come to think of it, he’d make a good orc.
Gillard shouldn’t have rushed out this morning commenting on Joyce’s possible plans for New England. It gives the prospect impetus it doesn’t deserve, while suggesting the government is concerned about it. Leave it to Windsor.
[Barnarby Joyce Deputy PM would be the gift that keeps on giving especially if he moved to NSW with a completely different press gallery to QLD.]
Windsor is a straight-shooter, whereas Barnaby is just a buffoon. He’d have do de-Qld to some extent wouldn’t he?
vp
[The bring-back-Rudders are getting (even more) tiresome.]
But entitled to put their view!