Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll has conducted its usual fortnighly poll from a normal sample of 1151, but for some reason The Australian only provides results for preferred Labor leader. This offers yet more evidence that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd, with the former favoured by 29 per cent against 36 per cent for the latter, with 10 per cent opting for Wayne Swan. The Australian’s report leads with the news that “only one in 10 voters back Wayne Swan as their preferred Labor leader”, which hardly comes as a surprise. Swan’s inclusion in the mix distinguishes the poll from previous Newspoll efforts six weeks ago and early last year, as does a six point hike in the undecided rating from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.

Today also saw the weekly Essential Research poll, which had Labor slipping another point on two-party preferred to trail 54-46. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, with Labor and the Greens steady on 35 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Contra Nielsen, the poll finds a slight increase in support for the carbon tax, with support up five points on a fortnight ago to 39 per cent and opposition down two to 49 per cent. If “the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, support is 51 per cent (down three points) and opposition 33 per cent (up three points). Support for the National Broadband Network has increased since a dip in February, up six points to 54 per cent with opposition down three to 28 per cent. There are also two questions on Israel-Palestine which do not to my mind prove terribly illuminating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. puff i doubt they can afford to,

    that was where my oh parents where sent when coming from Sydney, it took a lot of
    determination to live there then, the bigotry towards them was so bad,
    the woman they rented a room from put a piece of string along one side of the kitchen and they where not allowed to cross it. and she turned her back every time my mother in law came in to the room to cook for the family.
    my father in law bought a block of land in the area and when mum came they went to see it, guess what there was a house built on it, he had been conned, all the money he saved that year, ( he came a year before they did} all gone
    so thats my memories of western sydney

    no wonder they left they where sponsored by the catholic church and bought to Hobart

  5. add to the above after he passed on my oh found all the legal documents if only he ask for help, but of course it was far to late then to do anything, sad really
    that was their first impression of australia and building a new life.
    its a wonder they stayed

  6. The Australian used to be cool to read (as my say accurately reports), but it changed during 1975 – just when I was travelling the world for a year or so (they call it backpacking nowadays).

    I came back to Oz at the beginning of November, in time for the Dismissal on November 11th. The world had changed and so had the Australian. Full of screaming headlines, Khemlani and condemnation of anything Labor.

    Whitlam dodn’t lower taxes, despite the Australian running the first of its many “Tax Revolts”: a bootstrapping exercise whereby you could almost believe – by the time they’d whipped themselves into a frenzy – that if you went out into the street you’d be set upon by an angry mob of pitchfork and torch bearers ready to lynch the first person they saw.

    Actually going out into the street dispelled that feeling.

    The Oz is still doing it today, running the same scams, against the same “enemy”.

    And now they have the cheek to bid for Australia TV, a gift from the government they loathe and berate at every opportunity (and even some opportunities they create by themselves).

    If you’d have told me that nearly forty years later Rupert Murdoch would still be plying the same malignant untruths, still bootstrapping and still lying, cheating and falsifying the record I’d have laughed in your face.

    Shows what kind of judge I am, I guess.

    Julia should do all she can to prevent News from getting Australia TV. There are a thousand reasons against his having any more media power, and none in favour. He won’t change his ways. He’ll break every agreement (signed or unsigned) and he’ll continue to try to do mortal damage to Labor. Nothing can buy him off.

  7. [bg
    Yes, Hansard was available free to anyone in the country.
    As for political involvement I have never been a member of any political party of have have been directly involved in any way.
    It’s just that there was so much going on at the time. As a nineteen year old at the time of the Libs talking about conscription for the Vietnam war, the fawning Monarchism of the Coaltition, the presence of the DLP, Bob Santamaria, Archbishop Mannix, etc. there was much to be interested about. There was an abundance of nascent change in the air.
    As a matter of interest I was in the first draft ballot in which 51% of the 183 birthdays were selected, so effectively the Army could take its pick. After a couple of years of deferral for study completion I failed the medical. It was an unnerving experience – but nowhere near as bad as the poor sods who went over there and then treated like shit when they got back.
    It wasn’t long before the Whitlam years came, and we all know how vibrant they were.
    Anyway, bg, I have maintained the keen interest in politics ever since.]

    Hmmm, my political indoctrination has been my more staid. Thanks for sharing your story BK.

  8. [bluegreen
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 8:44 am | Permalink
    So who is excited by a Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce?]

    may be he can stand with mr trump over there.

    i doubt one person would be able to put the scenario together un less they blogg here.

    aust, are so dumb politically very very scary,
    me he cannot add uplets hope he gets beaten o my gooddness

  9. [So who is excited by a Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce?]

    He as Deputy, and Rabbott as {I can hardly bring myself to say it} PM would be the ultimate expression of Australia as a right-wing hillbilly hole. Aaah, conservatism! It brings such cultural wonders!

  11. Bk Bg,
    I was living in the sticks, so I had conservative working class Labor voting parents, who totally disdained long-haired radicals running around uni’s smoking dope and protesting. Talk about mixed messages…

    My Mum was born in outback Qld, and she told me of the class divide back then. The station managers wife would be friendly as can be on the property, but in town, would never speak to my mum, a mere station-hand’s daughter. My Mum also told me of the big shearers strike of her dad’s time, when striking shearers were beaten or even shot dead.

  12. In this statement, who is pushing the, “It’s all bad” theme?
    They have taken a positive & made it into BHP against all the barriers the government has put before it.
    The message is getting through loud & clear at The Oz.

    Strewth!

    [BHP Billiton plans to defy uncertainty over a carbon price and the imposition of a mining tax to pursue a $48 billion expansion of its iron ore operations.]
    Defy uncertainty?
    The imposition?

  13. Cuppa,

    He as Deputy, and Rabbott as {I can hardly bring myself to say it} PM would be the ultimate expression of Australia as a right-wing hillbilly hole.

    Then we truly would be the “pimple on the arske of the world.”

  15. Dennis Atkins on Labors fortunes

    [
    The overriding reason for Labor’s seemingly entrenched poll slump is its carbon pricing plan, which manages to push three negative electoral buttons at once: it is seen as a broken promise, it’s regarded as an unwanted new tax and it’s evidence of dancing to the tune of the Greens.

    Labor’s efforts to sell the carbon plan to business, the unions and the public are not only failing, they’re making things worse. Even Labor’s strongest backers, the Australian Workers Union leadership, have been pushed by members to all but disown the plan.

    It’s hard to think of another government with as little room to move in electoral, policy or economic terms.

    There is no mood whatsoever among the overwhelming majority of Labor MPs to return to Rudd, despite his continuing lead in ALP leadership polling.

    So, there’s no leadership room to move, Labor can’t credibly back down on its carbon plan and there’s no money available to buy off disgruntled voters.

    Getting out of this hole would rewrite the history books.
    ]

    History books are there to be rewritten! 😀

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/labor-hole-deepens-as-carbon-digs-into-polls/story-e6frerff-1226041139666

  17. Bk you and i started our politcal interst at the same time.

    my oh had come from cadets to reserves, so in the army already, his birthday came out,

    i had to do a lot of blackmailing to stop him saying, well i had better go i suppose.

    becasue if you where in the reserves you had a choice but you had to stay in the reserves for 10 years, he ended up staying 26 years, we saw so many of our friend come back as broken men there has been several suicides over the years and we only just counted up the broken marriages we could think of last week its about 10.

    the liberals disgust me then and now a raffle to kill or be killed, i would never trust them with anything.
    thats why its inconceivable to me that any one votes for them
    when i see Frazer being so self righteous i remember he was minister for the Army i think,

    i had to go the anti v. rallies on my own as oh could hadly go could he in the reserves.

    o well seems so long ago now, he is doing the anzac thing this year as the boys at the college need a senior person to go with them.

  19. Dee,

    I blame the NBN. It has addled the brain of clear thinking, profit oriented, unsentimental business types and turned them in to nation builders.

  20. [History books are there to be rewritten! ]

    yes dear denniss its early days yet at least this gov, has guts and determination to actully do something not like your mate jh

  21. [The aim of the Childcare rebate was always to encourage females back to the workforce after pregnancy, and to give support to people with children.]

    Am I alone in believing that outsourcing the raising of your children is going to have bad outcomes down the track?

  23. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 8:59 am | Permalink
    madcyril

    I agree that Labor’s polling slump has everything to do with carbon tax]

    yes thats why i think it will all come out in the wash eventually. just wish it was over you have to admire our labor members, they must admre and trust Julia.

    o and by the way i still cannot find the little story line evan pushed last night about
    richardson re julia.

  24. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    Apparently there was a loud noise from the sky over SW Victoria last night. This is the article.

    http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/the-southwests-big-bang-the-truth-is-out-there/2134806.aspx

    Some of the comments are hilarious.]

    Bushfire, I live in Warrnambool and slept through it all. Not unusual – I slept through an SA earth tremor in 1955, and one in Sydney in 1973. I’m a bit worried that The Standard used Don Ward as a spokesman. He is a regular AGW denialist letter-writer – probably thinks the warming, if it exists at all, is a result of meteors and volcanic activity, and regards Carter and Plimer as useful.

    Some of the comments were indeed hilarious – I liked the one of the person on the dunny at Garvoc. This was also fun:

    [@it’s only me, if it really was aliens, what are they doing here? If they were hoping to find intelligent life on earth, then they clearly came to the wrong place if your comments are anything to go by. ]

  25. [Am I alone in believing that outsourcing the raising of your children is going to have bad outcomes down the track?]

    Nup, we are in the same club.

    And I dont understand why a govt provides massive financial disincentives to look after your own kids.

  26. yes Bk i gave my self a list so i will to.

    just wondering is the neeeewpol in the top drawer it may be better than neilson

  27. [The razor gang also rejected another proposal to slash funding to the National Health and Medical Research Council which would have saved more than $300 million.]

    At least some of them have a decent political brain. The childcare rebate would have been a political disaster as well.

    Gillard has a really good opportunity with the pokies legislation. The polls are strongly supportive by 2:1 and the support is much the same with Greens/ALP and Libs. She can stand up to the hotel lobby. Full steam ahead.

  28. Another bad poll for Labor though not as terrible as the Neilsen. At this point Labor needs to forget about the polls and achieve some outcomes, especially on the carbon tax. There is no point caving in to every business demand. As the Oz story Dee quoted shows, large mining developments are still happening anyway. Muzzling Howes and co would help too.

  31. [madcyril

    I agree that Labor’s polling slump has everything to do with carbon tax]
    I agree and there is only one way to get out of this slump and overcome people’s fears and that is to press on and get the CT in place. Get the bloody thing operating and show that the fears are unfounded.

  32. My Say,
    I am so glad your OH did not have to go, it is so sad for the ones who were damaged.

    At the time my parents worked at a prestigious racehorse stud in Victoria, where the the leading lights of the day including Premiers and ministers came out to look at their mares and foals or to size up the offerings before the annual yearling sales.

    I overheard my parents saying that all the young blokes on the stud were informed that if they did not want to go to Vietnam, they only had to say the word and their name would be pulled from the list.

    I was in primary school but it was a lesson in who you know not what you know.

  33. [78 Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 9:04 am | Permalink
    Another bad poll for Labor though not as terrible as the Neilsen. At this point Labor needs to forget about the polls and achieve some outcomes, especially on the carbon tax. There is no point caving in to every business demand. As the Oz story Dee quoted shows, large mining developments are still happening anyway. Muzzling Howes and co would help too.]

    i would say from this you have been chatting to Julia, bet thas exactly what she is saying.

  35. [overheard my parents saying that all the young blokes on the stud were informed that if they did not want to go to Vietnam, they only had to say the word and their name would be pulled from the list.]

    Wow, what a headline that would made in the 70, now it would be buried.

  36. Victoria,

    Tunbull wouldn’t be much better. A lot more articulate, yes, somewhat more nuanced in some respects … but still fundamentally about the same things as Rabbott, that is increasing the wealth of the privileged at the expense of everyone else, letting gangster capitalism run free over society, running down the public sector, demonising minorities, preying on fear, and destroying working conditions for employees.

  37. Gary, My Say
    Agreed.

    Here is another story which is not strictly politicla but woudl be good for the government to promote: the rate of young girls getting the full course of the cervical cancer vaccine has dropped to 73%:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/19/3195177.htm

    So 1 in 4 girls are not getting a free vaccine that gives lifetime protection against a deadly disease that can be contracted unknowingly from a partner. Aargh! Tony Abbott and all those fundies who have opposed this vaccine should be ashamed.

  38. .[ Get the bloody thing operating and show that the fears are unfounded.]

    yes gary, its like waiting for a birth is it.

    i spoke to Mr. combet office yesterday and sort of said that the lady i spoke to said
    smiled ( you could hear a little laugh) and said well we dont want repercussions with this, we want to do it perfectly and then we will announce it.

    but also we must not over look the committee is made up of the IND, and they are the one’s that have to tick the boxes, and when they are happy and that is important very important it will happen.

    but gee is wish it was today.

  39. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 8:37 am | Permalink
    One thing I do not understand, if Western Sydney is so bad, why don’t people just move?]

    Morning all …. It’s not a bad place to live at all Puff. I have lived here for 6 years previously having spent more than 20 years living in or close to the CBD most of it in Darlington. Apart from the lack of good restaurants ( you really have to search hard) It’s an easy place to live away from the noise and bustle. I hear cows mooing at night and get roos less than 100 mtrs away from my place sometimes.

    Wife and I went into the city yesterday and had lunch at Abduls and loved it, thanks Boerwar I remembered that I had been there before and my mate used to live upstairs.

  40. [another story which is not strictly politicla but woudl be good for the government to promote: the rate of young girls getting the full course of the cervical cancer vaccine has dropped to 73%:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/19/3195177.ht%5D

    wasnt there a bit of scare campaign recently the gov need to advertise this.
    i think some girls fainted or something and parent s went on about it, so some people worried about it. silly really my son fainted at very jab he had a school it was funny really he got so embarrassed we ended up having to do them privately.

  41. Tony Windsor interview on ABC 24 just now – he said he will support a well structured carbon plan if the rest of the world is taking action, but would not support a plan watered down so much that it achieves nothing.

    For the ALP right, that should send a shiver up the place where normal people have a spine.

  43. debonlay
    Antony Loewenstein from Melbourne has written a good book on Palestine & what he calls the worst apartheid he had witnessed.
    Unfortunately, many get confused over criticism of Israeli Zion policy & anti-semitism.
    The two are not the same.
    Many Jewish organizations, which I think I have referred you to before are anti-Israeli policy on Palestine.
    They are against the hard right in Israel.
    Unfortunately, our politicians, likewise all over the world are too scared to speak out against the hard right in Israel. They are frightened of being perceived as anti-semetic.

    Have you ever read the Balfour Declaration of 1917?

  44. [jaundiced view
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Tony Windsor interview on ABC 24 just now – he said he will support a well structured carbon plan if the rest of the world is taking action, but would not support a plan watered down so much that it achieves nothing.

    For the ALP right, that should send a shiver up the place where normal people have a spine.]

    JV Windsor seems to be walking both sides of the fence, can you eleaborate for us?

  46. [my say
    Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 9:18 am | Permalink
    paul J did you see my list of suburbs i put there for you the other day]

    I did My Say thanks for that and we will be having a look again down there in a cpl of months. OH wants to see what it’s like in winter 😉

  47. BERNARDKEANE | 1 minute ago
    [Bit disturbed that Arthur Calwell and Lance Barnard didn’t feature in today’s Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend]

  48. Go here:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/andrew-wilkie-buries-the-hatchet-with-accuser/story-fn7x8me2-1226041223433

    You get a Not found message. Hit the Home Page link. It’s at the bottom of the pile in the sidebar at the left.

    Not quite as much prominence as the initial story, but it does set out that Wilkie said he’d make an effort to help fix bastardization, there’s a nice photo of the two men shaking hands and a sting in the tail:

    [The most tense moment came when Mr Etches and Mr Wilkie disagreed over an incident involving a salute to the 50th anniversary of Hitler’s rise to power. Mr Etches said Mr Wilkie was involved, something the MP said he could not remember.

    Mr Etches said, “I’m sorry, but I find that very hard to believe.”]

    Rule was clearly disappointed, as was the HS editor, as the story is buried.

  49. [The childcare rebate would have been a political disaster as well.]
    Not according to Samantha Maiden. She referred me to this Mother’s site,( 4 pages last time I looked) & ‘most’ of the commentary was all for cutting childcare rebates. Also, her blog had a mix. Indicated that if it is done fairly, no problemo.

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