Newspoll has conducted its usual fortnighly poll from a normal sample of 1151, but for some reason The Australian only provides results for preferred Labor leader. This offers yet more evidence that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd, with the former favoured by 29 per cent against 36 per cent for the latter, with 10 per cent opting for Wayne Swan. The Australian’s report leads with the news that “only one in 10 voters back Wayne Swan as their preferred Labor leader”, which hardly comes as a surprise. Swan’s inclusion in the mix distinguishes the poll from previous Newspoll efforts six weeks ago and early last year, as does a six point hike in the undecided rating from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.
Today also saw the weekly Essential Research poll, which had Labor slipping another point on two-party preferred to trail 54-46. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, with Labor and the Greens steady on 35 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Contra Nielsen, the poll finds a slight increase in support for the carbon tax, with support up five points on a fortnight ago to 39 per cent and opposition down two to 49 per cent. If “the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, support is 51 per cent (down three points) and opposition 33 per cent (up three points). Support for the National Broadband Network has increased since a dip in February, up six points to 54 per cent with opposition down three to 28 per cent. There are also two questions on Israel-Palestine which do not to my mind prove terribly illuminating.
The figure (44-56) and Newspoll not releasing their results would indicate that the Nielson poll delivered an outlier, however a better result could not be had. With cliffs to the left and cliffs to the right Labor has only one option, stick with the reform agenda and stick with Gillard.
I really like the irony of the current situation. The mad right brought Rudd down (it is fun watching the Labor faithful defend their actions).
The Labor Government was replaced by a left leaning collection over which the Labor Mad Right has no control. To add to the Mad right’s pain, this polls make it very clear, going to an election is not an option.
To force the mad Labor right into foetal position the NSW voters have destroyed their political base and made it very plain that sacking leaders is not a winning strategy.
If Richo was on channel 7 news saying that if Gillard does not dump the carbon tax she is dead in the water, it doesn’t matter, he is a warrior from an empire destroyed.
I am calling for Poss and JG to pay royalties for Barnaby Joyce DPM.
As far as I could tell I was the first to use the phrase. Pay up folks.
[bluegreen
Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 6:39 am | Permalink
Geez, how good would a Tony Abbott PM and Barnaby Joyce DPM be? It would be totally awesome.]
Compared with
[Pollytics Barnaby Joyce – Deputy Prime Minister. Feel how those words roll around in your mouth, Australia. half a minute ago via TweetDeck]
and
[JULIA Gillard has seized on the prospect of maverick Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce taking his party’s leadership, warning that would make him deputy prime minister under a future Coalition government. ]
Melissa Clarke doing her Lib stuff on ABC95 about (?) the resignation of the head of CSIRO.
jv
[Gillard shouldn’t have rushed out this morning commenting on Joyce’s possible plans for New England. It gives the prospect impetus it doesn’t deserve, while suggesting the government is concerned about it. Leave it to Windsor.]
I was about to post a similar remark myself. Why give them more oxygen for God’s sake?
[if Gillard does not dump carbon tax she is dead in the water.]
She’s dead in the water if she drops it.
Windsor called Barnaby a fool on election night or the next day.
[As far as I could tell I was the first to use the phrase. Pay up folks.]
Me and blackdog were talking about it last night.
[Me and blackdog were talking about it last night.]
But surely anything posted in the midnight shift does not carry legal authority 😉
markjs@146
Why FDS?
And running a remote guerrilla campaign, getting supporters such as yourself with access to whinge on PB. Now that’s trolling.
Last night’s was a nice civil discussion – coincidence? I don’t think so.
BOF makes the buses go slower and the traffic more congested.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/chaos-on-buses-as-lane-plan-reversed-20110418-1dls2.html
bg
Thanks for posting link to Windsor
WA RSL- What a bunch of f-wits
[SAS widows fight memorial limbo
GARETH PARKER, The West Australian April 19, 2011, 5:16 am
Perth widows of Special Air Service Regiment soldiers who lost their lives serving their country are fighting a bureaucratic battle to have their husbands’ names inscribed on the State War Memorial at Kings Park.
They are dismayed with the RSL’s insistence on observing an 80-year-old protocol that permits only the names of servicemen and women who were born or enlisted in WA to be added to the list of the fallen in the memorial’s crypt.
In a double blow for the widows, the protocol says names can only be added once a conflict has ended – putting in limbo the commemoration of Diggers who served in Afghanistan and Iraq where there is no clear end to hostilities.
The widows’ husbands were born and enlisted outside WA but called the State home, some for as long as 20 years, while they served in the SAS.
Now, after their deaths in the line of duty, the widows, who asked not to be named, want to be able to show their WA-born and raised children their home State recognises their fathers’ ultimate sacrifice.
“At the end of the day, it should be the family’s decision,” one widow said yesterday. “That’s all we’re asking for. This is our home.”
Another said: “All our kids are going to live here – this is where they were born, this is what we call home.
“My husband had been here since 1988. How long do you have to live in a place to be called a local?
“We would like (the RSL) to revisit the decision and think about it.
“And what would the people of WA want, too?]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9224168/sas-widows-fight-memorial-limbo/
From the Essential Poll re: carbon ‘tax’
[Strongest support was shown by those aged under 35 (42%) and those on incomes over $1,600 pw (46%).
Those most strongly opposed were aged 55+ (58%).]
If we use income as a proxy for education, and assume people under 35 would have got some education about climate change at school, we can conclude that ‘the least educated people most ignorant of climate change were most strongly opposed to a carbon tax’
This confirms my experience that that those most opposed to action on greenhouse are the most ignorant of the issue – I have bogan in-laws (my wife is the only remaining lefty from a working class family – also the only university educated one. To misquote Rowan Atkinson’s wedding speech “If I can compare her family to a dung heap – and I think I can – she is the beautiful flower growing out of the top”) – the cousins-in-law probably thought Kath and Kim was a documentary and they all think ‘climate change is crap’. When I ‘discuss’ this with them, I find that their sole source of info is Andrew Bolt and Terry McCann. Whenever I tell them about the solid science they should read, they counter ‘the scientists are all biased /doing it for the money/ have been shown to be making it up’ – a great argument – “I’m right and I’m not going to listen to anyone who knows what they are talking about”. I sort of win the argument every time – by getting them to admit that they actually do not know what they are talking about – but then next time we meet they’ll still strongly state that it is all crap and have new tripe from Bolt or blogs to ‘confirm’ that ‘their’ opinion beats scientific method and millions of dollars of measuring equipment that goes as close to confirming the fingerprints of AGW as scientific method can.
I modify my post from yesterday – OLD dumb people (and my wife’s cousins) shit me.
& also – surely calling it a ‘tax’ skews the survey – it is a transition price before a trading system and will only apply to the top 50 or so polluters (who will then introduce the greenhouse efficiency measures they have been sitting on since Howard killed a proposed ETS in 2000 so they can rent seek for compensation before cashing in under a trading system). the interim price means that we can ease ourselves into trading, which will likely set a higher price than the interim ‘tax’, as well as compensate and invest in less greenhouse intensive systems.
I sometimes really like the West Australian- It runs strong stories and doesnt follow the pack.
[Carbon tax to force Budget re-run
SHANE WRIGHT, ECONOMICS EDITOR, The West Australian April 19, 2011, 2:35 am
The Gillard Government will deliver a second Budget this year that will take in the impact of its carbon tax on consumers and business.
Three weeks from Wayne Swan’s fourth Budget, Treasury and the Federal Government are steeling themselves behind the scenes for a re-run that includes tax cuts for workers, increases in welfare payments and handouts to exporters.
The West Australian has revealed the May 10 Budget will not include the proposed carbon tax because the Government is yet to finalise the price and compensation.
But its commitment to release these details by mid-year means it will then have the details for a major economic statement. This will include an update on the economy under a carbon price.
A former Treasury official said it was unlikely the Government would label this release as a second Budget, but there was no way of avoiding a major statement.
“Given everything they will have to cover – the cash payments, the changes to income tax, the carbon price itself – then clearly it will have to be substantial,” he said.
Under law, the Government must release a mid-year Budget update by late January or within six months of its Budget, whichever is later. Usually it comes in November or December.
Institute of Chartered Accountants tax counsel Yasser El-Ansary said it made sense for the Government to pull together a second Budget which should also include more details of the planned mineral resources rent tax.
“There is a strong possibility that the final make-up of the carbon price and compensation, as well as whatever develops on the mining tax front, will create a need for the Government to revise Budget numbers, perhaps outside of normal mid-year process,” he said.
“They can’t do all the work they need to in May because obviously those two big policies won’t be landed by then, and who can predict what the Senate will do to the carbon price and mining tax until they are actually voted on and passed?”
Draft laws for the mining tax are not due to be released publicly until late next month.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9223000/carbon-tax-to-force-budget-re-run/
[bluegreen
Posted Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 10:19 am | Permalink
WA RSL- What a bunch of f-wits]
The RSL delivered worse crap when the soldiers returned from Vietnam, there was calls to prevent membership.
[A BUDGET proposal to means test the 50 per cent childcare rebate for families was rejected by Treasurer Wayne Swan’s razor gang after a marathon session yesterday.
Government sources revealed Mr Swan ruled out the measure, in which families would be means tested for the first time for generous childcare help of up to $7500 a year.]
So Maiden beat this up last Sunday and got all the Mums stirred up and now she can say she’s been successful in getting it dropped.
Saw JG’s presser this morning and she answered questions really well. Looked fantastic and right on top of everything. Made good comment about medical research and the increases since 2007. Will much of it be in the headlines today as it should be – I doubt it. It will all be Tony Abbott’s Union tour in WA.
Penny Wong was good on agenda too. She’s not taking those talking media heads for anything but braindead.
[Labor was on the nose before the carbon tax announcement. It’s not so much the tax but the broken promise which is the killer, reinforcing perceptions that JG the assassin can’t be trusted.]
Hang on, if they were on the nose before the CT announcement how do you know the so called lie is the cause? I think your terminology shows where you’re really coming from.
[BernardKeane | 1 hour 5 minutes ago
Bit disturbed that Arthur Calwell and Lance Barnard didn’t feature in today’s Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend]
Poss and Bernard keep us laughing. Thank God.
BH
That is why I enjoy posting their tweets. they keep me sane!
New Australian Chief Scientist
http://www.anu.edu.au/emeritus/bios/Bio_Ian_Chubb.html
[Gillard shouldn’t have rushed out this morning commenting on Joyce’s possible plans for New England. It gives the prospect impetus it doesn’t deserve, while suggesting the government is concerned about it. Leave it to Windsor.]
It was already well and truly out there. I heard a number of news services on 3AW this morning and one item made it to every news service and I don’t think I need to tell what that was.
[THEBURGERMAN | 46 seconds ago
Total media mentions 10-16 April: carbon price, 15,768; ADF scandal, 9,194; pokies, 7,355; medical research, 3,330; NBN, 1,772.]
Since the legislation passed through Parliament, the NBN hysteria seems to have died off a bit.
Silly question, but does Barnaby need to vacate his senate seat since he had decided to challenge for lower house seat?
Peter Martin is not impressed by the rent seekers.
The audio is worth a listen.
http://www.petermartin.com.au/
Gary@170
Of course it was already out there. The point is there was no need for Gillard to get involved. Windsor did a great job on it this morning. The only result of the PM weighing in is to give helium to a bit of opposition balloon-flying, and further distract from her job to lead on carbon at every turn. One does wonder about Gillard’s political nous.
I don’t know if this has come up on PB before, but there will be a referendum in May in Britain on an “AV” voting system, which, from what I gather, is an optional preferential system. The No campaign, which includes historians David Starkey and Antony Beevor, is saying some hysterical rubbish about it, such as:
[Supporters claim the system would ensure that all MPs had been backed by at least half of their constituents.
But critics point out it would also mean that some votes would be counted several times.
Supporters of fringe parties, such as the far-right BNP, are likely to have their second, and perhaps third, preferences counted, while those backing mainstream parties may be counted only once.]
[‘For the first time in centuries we face the unfair idea that one citizen’s vote might be worth six times that of another. It will be a tragic consequence if those votes belong to supporters of extremist and non-serious parties.’]
[‘It is a clapped-out form of voting that is only used in three countries – Australia, Fiji and Papua New Guinea – and from what I understand two of those countries don’t like it.]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1365293/AV-voting-reform-threat-democracy.html
[Gillard shouldn’t have rushed out this morning commenting on Joyce’s possible plans for New England.]
I suspect this is nothing more than trying to put pressure on Windsor. Windsor in the same boat as the rest. Cliffs to the left, cliffs to the right, can’t go back have to go forward.
[Of course it was already out there. The point is there was no need for Gillard to get involved. Windsor did a great job on it this morning. The only result of the PM weighing in is to give helium to a bit of opposition balloon-flying, and further distract from her job to lead on carbon at every turn. One does wonder about Gillard’s political nous.]
For some the criticism is that Gillard doesn’t fire up against the opposition enough. Doomed if she does, doomed if she doesn’t. I really fail to see how her commenting on this makes any difference what so ever. It’s nit picking.
bring it on says Windsor to Joyce
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/19/3195391.htm?section=justin
in March i wrote to the abc regarding that cartoon, reply
[We are satisfied that the cartoon would not have offended “..to a substantial degree, the standards of the content’s target audience.” The target audience, in this instance, are adults with an interest in current affairs and politics. We are of the view that most people in this target audience would be aware that politicians and those in the public are often satirised in a manner such as this. Moreover, we note that most people would be aware that Julia Gillard’s accent has often been the subject of commentary and that she has taken this with good humour in the past and in this instance. While the satirical cartoon was being broadcast, a shot of Ms Gillard was shown in the corner of the screen and she was laughing heartily.]
Their ABC doing propaganda duties for Rabbott and the hateradio talkers…
And of course the Liberal spambots are deployed to “comment”:
[Labor support slumps amid carbon tax revolt]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/18/3193914.htm
Gary
Abbott comments if someone scratches an itch, but Gillard gets criticized left, right and centre!
The only way out for Windsor is to see a CT go ahead and for it to be seen as a positive rather than a negative. Not passing a CT will not solve the fear problems nor the feeling that he has let the electorate down.
Mr Widsor, what a great man, he doesnt let any one stand over him, and calls their bluff
[Gary
Abbott comments if someone scratches an itch, but Gillard gets criticized left, right and centre!]
Spot on. JG will never do anything right in the eyes of some.
my say@179
I’m 100% with the ABC on that reply.
[was already well and truly out there. I heard a number of news services on 3AW this morning and one item made it to every news service and I don’t think I need to tell what that was.]
good to point out this man could accidently be PM.
some one had to say it
ar you jv
if i was pm i would not have liked it and Mr menzies would sacked the lot
and they may not have dont it to abbott,
iam glad your no offended by it bu as a woman am i dam well am
THEBURGERMAN | 48 seconds ago
[#AMAgenda with @Kieran_Gilbert feat. Penny Wong, Tony Windsor, Mike Kelly, Josh Frydenberg: http://j.mp/eM4m2w #]
Gary and Victoria
It isn’t that big a deal. Just a small example of generally poor judgement in my opinion. If I were an adviser in Gillard’s office, I would have advised saying nothing and letting Windsor handle it – it isn’t as if he needs help. Gillard has much bigger issues on which she needs to be seen as far more effective.
is this woman delusional. So well matched? Windsor has more intelligence in his little finger than Barnaby has in his whole persona!!!
MICHELLEGRATTAN | 43 seconds ago
[the Barney-Tony battle is wonderful _ but is it all about bluff and counter bluff? Pity they’re enemies _ so well matched.]
[And running a remote guerrilla campaign, getting supporters such as yourself with access to whinge on PB. Now that’s trolling.
Last night’s was a nice civil discussion – coincidence? I don’t think so.]
Correct. Anyone who “whinges” about Frank being banned, or passes on anything he has to say on Twitter or anywhere else, will be joining him. Frank might be let back in if he changes his tactics. Basically, he needs to grow up. No further on this subject.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/22/3169998.htm
just a reminder as to where the polls where just one month ago.
so it must be fear spreading that has caused the problem
[New Australian Chief Scientist
http://www.anu.edu.au/emeritus/bios/Bio_Ian_Chubb.html%5D
bg
I knew Ian Chubb quite well during his tenure at Flinders Uni.
He certainly won’t hold back.
Good appointment.
[The No campaign, which includes historians David Starkey and Antony Beevor, is saying some hysterical rubbish about it]
The same tired arguments have been trotted out by FPTP proponents worldwide. Has anyone seen any polling into the referendum?
[is this woman delusional]
No, just wishful.
poor michele
wonder why she doesnt retire,
[I would have advised saying nothing and letting Windsor handle it – it isn’t as if he needs help. Gillard has much bigger issues on which she needs to be seen as far more effective.]
She was asked about it.
[Has anyone seen any polling into the referendum?]
Last one I saw was running 44-37 against.
Our mate Kieran Gilbert believes the protests against the budget cuts have worked in the cases of the child care subsidy and the medical research. I wonder if they were actually in for the chop in the first place.
[mumbletwits Gillard’s ‘be very afraid of acting PM Barnaby Joyce ‘ line should be saved for the election. ]
I agree with Mumbles. Like with the tony abbott workchoices thingy- they ran it too early.