Essential Research (53-47) and the 2010 Australian Election Study

The latest Essential Research survey shows the Coalition’s two-party vote steady on 53-47, while also pointing to a continuing drift away from Labor who for the second week in a row have shed a point on the primary vote, now at 35 per cent. The Greens have gained a point to 11 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 46 per cent. Essential’s monthly personal rating questions find approval for Julia Gillard at a new low of 37 per cent (down four points on March) with disapproval at a new high of 50 per cent (up four points). This puts her in very similar terrain to Tony Abbott, down two on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 44-33 to 42-33. Further questions looked at “reason for budget deficit”, measures which should be taken to restore it (63 per cent favour “increase taxes for big corporations”), Tony Abbott’s welfare proposal (reaction a bit more hostile than I might have thought) and perceptions of the difference between Labor and the Greens.

Also made available to the public last week were results from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents after each election with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and media use. You can access the result by registering with the Australian Social Science Data Archive, and having done so can probably waste days on end running cross-tabulations to investigate your pet theories about why the election played out the way it did. This is done through the internet and by mailout, and while biases are introduced by the survey’s reliance on self-completion, its aggregate results reasonably approximate reality: Labor 41 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election), the Coalition 44.5 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens on 9.5 per cent (11.8 per cent).

Among other things, respondents are asked to rank various election issues as of high, middling or no importance. The changes in these from the 2007 to 2010 elections make terrific reading for the Coalition. Scholars of political communications and electoral behaviour are very keen on the principle of “issue ownership”, and the need for political parties to place the issues they own high on the agendas of the media and the public. In 2007, John Howard paid dearly for the salience of industrial relations and environmental issues. Environment and global warming were respectively rated as highly important by 59 per cent and 51 per cent, respondents in the respective categories splitting 64-36 and 68-32 to Labor. Fifty-one per cent nominated industrial relations as of high importance, and although you might expect this to account for both pro- and anti-union positions, these respondents split 65-35 for Labor.

In 2010, concern for all three of these measures went through the floor: environment down to 42 per cent, global warming to 30 per cent and industrial relations to 28 per cent. However, whereas the Labor vote was actually higher than in 2007 among those concerned about the environment (65-35) and global warming (72-28), they slackened from 65-35 to 60-40 among those concerned about industrial relations. The pattern of industrial relations was reflected to a smaller extent by a 2007 Rudd showpiece, education, which was rated as very important by 69 per cent in 2007 and 62 per cent in 2010, with Labor’s lead on the issue falling from 59-41 to 56-44. The highest rated issue overall was health and Medicare, rated very important by 76 per cent, and on which Labor’s lead slipped from 58-42 to 53-47.

In each issue category noted so far, Labor held the lead. Where the election was nearly lost was economic management: not included as a distinct category in the 2007 survey, in 2010 it came second to health and Medicare with a highly important rating of 74 per cent. This three-quarters of the electorate favoured the Coalition 53-47, such that the remaining quarter had to break 63-37 Labor’s way for the ledger to be evened. The Coalition’s other leads related to other economic issues and immigration. The latter issue gained salience compared with the 2007 election; the only other issue measured both times was, for some reason, the Labor-friendly issue of unemployment.

HIGH IMP CHANGE ALP 2PP CHANGE
Health and Medicare 76% 0% 53% -5%
Education 62% -7% 56% -3%
Unemployment 45% 6% 55% -2%
Interest Rates 43% 1% 48% -5%
Environment 42% -17% 65% 1%
Taxation 39% 1% 46% -2%
Population Policy 36% 5% 46% -3%
Global warming 30% -21% 72% 4%
Industrial Relations 28% -23% 60% -5%
Economic Management 74% 47%
Refugees/Asylum Seekers 38% 46%
Resources Tax 32% 45%

The next thing I found noteworthy concerned the matter of religious observance. The chart below shows the primary vote share in 2004, 2007 and 2010 for two categories of person: those who never engage in formal religious observance of any kind and those who do, however rarely (“less than once a year” inclusive). From Mark Latham to Kevin Rudd, the Labor vote among observers shot up by 9 per cent, about 1.5 per cent higher than the increase among non-observers. But with an atheist back in the Labor leadership in 2010, their primary vote among the former group slumped to only two points higher than it had been under Latham, whereas support among non-observers held firm.

Finally, something I’m not entirely sure what to make of. The following chart breaks down the primary vote according to when respondents say they decided how to vote. This tells a counter-intuitive story of the Coalition having it all over Labor among those deciding a long time before the election, with other punters breaking for Labor in increasing numbers up to and including on polling day. The chart also shows that this pattern was not followed in 2007, lest it be surmised that late voters incline to break for Labor due to their tendency to be of lower income and educational attainment. The first thing to be noted about this is that it doesn’t reflect the story told over time by the opinion polls, but this is not to say the findings are incompatible: pollsters rarely get a non-response rate of more than 4 per cent,
so the great majority of late deciders are not so undecided earlier in the piece that they are unable to offer some kind of response. One narrative which might be imposed on the figures is that a great many Labor voters who might have responded with “long time before” had their confidence shaken by the leadership change, but ultimately came home during the campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,039 comments on “Essential Research (53-47) and the 2010 Australian Election Study”

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  1. [The eight victims in the Phone Hacking Scandal have knocked back Ruperts settlement offers and have insisted that Rup go to court!

    Wooohoo! Can’t wait for that court case 😈 ]

    It’s going to make the Bolt case look like child’s play.

  3. [I don’t think the public are as anywhere near worried about “price tags”]

    That shows how completely out of touch you are. Try mixing with mainstream society some time. You’ll see that it is a very different world. Price is a major consideration. You are someone, judging by earlier comments here, who thinks people should be paid even more welfare than is already the case (with no obligation on their part to give something back – something as basic as evidence they are looking for work) then of course you can’t relate to mainstream.

  5. Dan,

    I would love to be in that courtroom tweeting every bloody unethical, immoral and illegal action that corrupt news organisation has ever committed. 😀

  6. SK:

    Just from the OO report:

    [Commodore Kafer would take leave while inquiries were underway, but the male cadet at the centre of the allegations remained at the college.

    “That individual is still at work. He is going through his studies,” Air Chief Marshal Houston said.

    “We don’t jump to conclusions. We need to go through a process and when that process is complete judgments will be made and appropriate action will be taken to hold the individual accountable.”]

    Houston is saying they have a process. I thought they’d all owned up?

  7. SK

    [I can’t think of one good reason why they weren’t stood down immediately.]

    It is called protecting the brand! Neil James is a self righteous smart arse who should be put out to pasture.

  9. [Houston is saying they have a process. I thought they’d all owned up?]

    Perhaps owning up is not part of the process.

  13. Houston strikes me as a very decent man! This would be a source of embarrassment to him I would suspect. Good on Smith for taking it up to them!

  15. Re the ADF: it’s a bit like the private boarding school buggery and bullying merry-go-round.

    If you complain about the buggery you get bullied. If you don’t complain you get buggered some more.

    Either way, it is a lose/lose for the victim.

  17. SK

    [I would love to be in that courtroom tweeting every bloody unethical, immoral and illegal action that corrupt news organisation has ever committed. :grin:]

    That’d crash Twitter’s servers for sure. They’d need to upgrade their hard disk space dramatically as well to handle all that information.

    Bring it on!!!!!

  18. Turnbull,

    “Build it and they will come has been a very good way to lose money in telecommunications”.

    TSUNAMI WARNING FOR JAPAN.

  20. [That shows how completely out of touch you are. Try mixing with mainstream society some time. You’ll see that it is a very different world. Price is a major consideration. You are someone, judging by earlier comments here, who thinks people should be paid even more welfare than is already the case (with no obligation on their part to give something back – something as basic as evidence they are looking for work) then of course you can’t relate to mainstream.]

    Unfortunately I suspected your comments were going to descend to this level. I get it your a devoted ALP supporter and didn’t like my comments, move on.

    The problem for you is I do mix the mainstream and I never really hear “price tags” being talked about by anyone other than hardcore right-wingers who think running govts should be all about profit & loss statements.

    I don’t think I’ve ever once on here advocated for more welfare for poor people (I’m assuming you’re not talking about those on welfare who earn $100K a year) but that’s a great idea, I agree. The dole is a joke and I won’t apologise for going into bat for poor people. I’ve never said poor people on welfare shouldn’t have to do anything I’ve only ever said if you want to spit on them just do it but don’t sink the slipper into them too.

  21. So the new standard response of those with deep pockets will mimic Big minings government attack, with BIG gambling and Big tobacco both working up campaigns

  22. Dan,

    Wonder if my Motorsports Media Accreditation would be sufficient to get access in a London courtroom?

    Hahahahaha!

  23. [The Defence Minister last week asked the Chief of the Defence Force, Angus Houston, to discipline ADFA commandant Bruce Kafer for his handling of the case in which a male cadet used Skype to broadcast himself having sex with a female cadet.

    But at a meeting of defence chiefs at their Russell Hill headquarters in Canberra on Friday evening, no decision to take action was made.

    Defence sources told The Australian yesterday there was now a “Mexican stand-off” between the minister and the CDF over the fate of Commodore Kafer.]

    This was reporting from early this morning, so has been superceded by events during the day. But seriously, how arrogant! Smith needs to put the broom through the joint. For too long the ADF has been a protected species, and its heirarchy have obviously cultivated a culture of resistance to moving into the 21st century.

    Smith has already won the battle over Kafer. So far he’s doing well.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/brass-wont-act-against-chief-over-cadet-scandal/story-e6frg8yo-1226036927597

  24. [So the new standard response of those with deep pockets will mimic Big minings government attack, with BIG gambling and Big tobacco both working up campaigns]

    Why wouldn’t they when they saw the ALP back down on the original mining tax? They created a rod for their own back and frankly deserve every bit of it. It was pathetic.

  25. [This was reporting from early this morning, so has been superceded by events during the day. But seriously, how arrogant! Smith needs to put the broom through the joint. For too long the ADF has been a protected species, and its heirarchy have obviously cultivated a culture of resistance to moving into the 21st century]
    confessions
    And Defence Force Material (DFO) should be next. Their incompetence is of legendary st

  27. SK

    LOL.

    Probably not necessary as it will be WELL covered by every media outlet in the world, except of course those in the NewsCorpse family.

    BTW – Is Conrad Black still in jail? Perhaps Murdoch could share a cell with him. Now there’s a “reality” TV show worth watching.

  28. [Smith needs to put the broom through the joint.]

    I don’t know if it will be him but someone certainly needs to do it. The defence force/industry are a law unto themselves.

  29. BK,

    The suprise is that for a business that relies heavily on organisation, the defence department fail is even more amazing. You’d think with the collective experiences over a hundred of years, you would have thought they would be way ahead of the pact.

  30. Essential Research question, commissioned by Channel Ten

    [
    Do you agree or disagree that – the Greens are an extreme political party that does not share the values of average Australians? (Question commissioned by Network Ten)

    ]

    [
    Just over half the respondents (52%) agreed that the Greens are an extreme political party that does not share the values of average Australians and 30% disagree.

    Those most likely to agree were Liberal/National voters (74%), men (60%) and those aged 65+ (65%). Labor voters were split with 44% agree and 41% disagree.
    ]

    http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/essential-report/

  33. I am off now! Monday night is the best night of the week on Tele for mine but before I go I hope everyone will spare a thought for bemused this evening.

    Speaking at that Rally tonight won’t be easy for him given his son’s suicide and although I don’t have much credit as a lapsed Catholic I will offer a little prayer of support for him.

    I will look forward to hearing from him how it all went.

  35. [I never really hear “price tags” being talked about by anyone other than hardcore right-wingers who think running govts should be all about profit & loss statements. ]

    Unfortunately I suspected your comments were going to descend to this level. I get it your a devoted Greens supporter and didn’t like my comments, move on.

  36. Dan,

    [BTW – Is Conrad Black still in jail? Perhaps Murdoch could share a cell with him. Now there’s a “reality” TV show worth watching.
    ]
    Gina’s new reality show? 😆

  40. [and what party was he from.

    No, I see where you’re going with this. No dice]

    adam i dont go any where with any think i am to busy for that,

    i was really treating you like i would of my daughters when they where doing australian history it was really and still is one my loves and strong points re study

    wasnt going any where and have no idea what you mean

    history is worth reading you often see it repeats its self even if its 200 years later.

  41. NEWS ADVISORY: Water pumping into 3 Fukushima Daiichi reactors stops: TEPCO

    NEWS ADVISORY: External power sources unavailable at Fukushima Daiichi reactors 1-2

  44. BK:

    Yes, the DMO has had its share of failures as well over the years.

    Btw, mashed jeruselum artichokes are quite nice with a piece of salmon, or they also work well roasted.

  46. cyril are you and my Oh going to now loose the motorsport, wasnt that the channel who showed it most of last winter the grand pre.s and the rallies ect.

    read they are cutting their sport channel and only having premium sport what ever that is , may be mr laughlin M can explain that to us

  47. [Nocando the redundant, runaway, financially challenged Lord Mayor has announced the Shadow Cabinet even though the clown isn’t even the official Queensland Opposition Leader or paid to be in that rol]

    what does the constitution say about this scenario

  48. [Btw, mashed jeruselum artichokes are quite nice with a piece of salmon, or they also work well roasted.]
    confessions
    Yum yum!!

  49. [adam i dont go any where with any think i am to busy for that,]

    I apologise then I thought you were trying to set me up for my comment to you a few nights ago about “not being supposedly politically engaged” which was in response to your insistence in calling me a Liberal when I’m clearly to the Left of you (and most on here).

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