Essential Research (53-47) and the 2010 Australian Election Study

The latest Essential Research survey shows the Coalition’s two-party vote steady on 53-47, while also pointing to a continuing drift away from Labor who for the second week in a row have shed a point on the primary vote, now at 35 per cent. The Greens have gained a point to 11 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 46 per cent. Essential’s monthly personal rating questions find approval for Julia Gillard at a new low of 37 per cent (down four points on March) with disapproval at a new high of 50 per cent (up four points). This puts her in very similar terrain to Tony Abbott, down two on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 44-33 to 42-33. Further questions looked at “reason for budget deficit”, measures which should be taken to restore it (63 per cent favour “increase taxes for big corporations”), Tony Abbott’s welfare proposal (reaction a bit more hostile than I might have thought) and perceptions of the difference between Labor and the Greens.

Also made available to the public last week were results from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents after each election with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and media use. You can access the result by registering with the Australian Social Science Data Archive, and having done so can probably waste days on end running cross-tabulations to investigate your pet theories about why the election played out the way it did. This is done through the internet and by mailout, and while biases are introduced by the survey’s reliance on self-completion, its aggregate results reasonably approximate reality: Labor 41 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election), the Coalition 44.5 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens on 9.5 per cent (11.8 per cent).

Among other things, respondents are asked to rank various election issues as of high, middling or no importance. The changes in these from the 2007 to 2010 elections make terrific reading for the Coalition. Scholars of political communications and electoral behaviour are very keen on the principle of “issue ownership”, and the need for political parties to place the issues they own high on the agendas of the media and the public. In 2007, John Howard paid dearly for the salience of industrial relations and environmental issues. Environment and global warming were respectively rated as highly important by 59 per cent and 51 per cent, respondents in the respective categories splitting 64-36 and 68-32 to Labor. Fifty-one per cent nominated industrial relations as of high importance, and although you might expect this to account for both pro- and anti-union positions, these respondents split 65-35 for Labor.

In 2010, concern for all three of these measures went through the floor: environment down to 42 per cent, global warming to 30 per cent and industrial relations to 28 per cent. However, whereas the Labor vote was actually higher than in 2007 among those concerned about the environment (65-35) and global warming (72-28), they slackened from 65-35 to 60-40 among those concerned about industrial relations. The pattern of industrial relations was reflected to a smaller extent by a 2007 Rudd showpiece, education, which was rated as very important by 69 per cent in 2007 and 62 per cent in 2010, with Labor’s lead on the issue falling from 59-41 to 56-44. The highest rated issue overall was health and Medicare, rated very important by 76 per cent, and on which Labor’s lead slipped from 58-42 to 53-47.

In each issue category noted so far, Labor held the lead. Where the election was nearly lost was economic management: not included as a distinct category in the 2007 survey, in 2010 it came second to health and Medicare with a highly important rating of 74 per cent. This three-quarters of the electorate favoured the Coalition 53-47, such that the remaining quarter had to break 63-37 Labor’s way for the ledger to be evened. The Coalition’s other leads related to other economic issues and immigration. The latter issue gained salience compared with the 2007 election; the only other issue measured both times was, for some reason, the Labor-friendly issue of unemployment.

HIGH IMP CHANGE ALP 2PP CHANGE
Health and Medicare 76% 0% 53% -5%
Education 62% -7% 56% -3%
Unemployment 45% 6% 55% -2%
Interest Rates 43% 1% 48% -5%
Environment 42% -17% 65% 1%
Taxation 39% 1% 46% -2%
Population Policy 36% 5% 46% -3%
Global warming 30% -21% 72% 4%
Industrial Relations 28% -23% 60% -5%
Economic Management 74% 47%
Refugees/Asylum Seekers 38% 46%
Resources Tax 32% 45%

The next thing I found noteworthy concerned the matter of religious observance. The chart below shows the primary vote share in 2004, 2007 and 2010 for two categories of person: those who never engage in formal religious observance of any kind and those who do, however rarely (“less than once a year” inclusive). From Mark Latham to Kevin Rudd, the Labor vote among observers shot up by 9 per cent, about 1.5 per cent higher than the increase among non-observers. But with an atheist back in the Labor leadership in 2010, their primary vote among the former group slumped to only two points higher than it had been under Latham, whereas support among non-observers held firm.

Finally, something I’m not entirely sure what to make of. The following chart breaks down the primary vote according to when respondents say they decided how to vote. This tells a counter-intuitive story of the Coalition having it all over Labor among those deciding a long time before the election, with other punters breaking for Labor in increasing numbers up to and including on polling day. The chart also shows that this pattern was not followed in 2007, lest it be surmised that late voters incline to break for Labor due to their tendency to be of lower income and educational attainment. The first thing to be noted about this is that it doesn’t reflect the story told over time by the opinion polls, but this is not to say the findings are incompatible: pollsters rarely get a non-response rate of more than 4 per cent,
so the great majority of late deciders are not so undecided earlier in the piece that they are unable to offer some kind of response. One narrative which might be imposed on the figures is that a great many Labor voters who might have responded with “long time before” had their confidence shaken by the leadership change, but ultimately came home during the campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,039 comments on “Essential Research (53-47) and the 2010 Australian Election Study”

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  1. The election study supports my thesis- with the ALP refusing to talk about CC and the Environment they killed it as an issue and nearly shot themselves too.

    Or are the ALP a party that only talks about these issues in opposition?

    The proof will be inthe carbon tax pudding.

  3. [The election study supports my thesis- with the ALP refusing to talk about CC and the Environment they killed it as an issue and nearly shot themselves too.]

    In this, the ALP was ably aided and abetted by Bob Brown sitting with Stephen Fielding and Barnaby Joyce to vote down the CPRS.

  4. [In this, the ALP was ably aided and abetted by Bob Brown sitting with Stephen Fielding and Barnaby Joyce to vote down the CPRS.]

    I dont disagree. But the ALP then refused to talk about climate change or anything environmental from that point onwards. Probably didnt pass the Lindsay test 🙂

  8. Continuing on with absurd clothing adopted by religions, it’s pretty hard (ahem) to beat (ahem) the modern mormon Garments – which aren’t even worn on the outside. I think these items should definitely be banned as an affront to lingerie aficionados everywhere. Just knowing they are worn is depressing:

  12. Looks like Marrickville Council was right, after all. Every time mediation looks like it might be getting somewhere, the Israelis just can’t help themselves. If they carry out this threat, bring on the sanctions:

    Israel’s foreign minister says that working toward a ceasefire with Hamas is a “grave mistake” and that his country should try to topple the militant Gaza rulers instead.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/ceasefire-a-mistake-israeli-minister-20110411-1dar9.html

  14. Interestingly though, The polls took a dive for Labor when they started talking about climate change again

    In ecology that is called Hysteresis effects

    In gymnastics, it’s called the minority government Whip Back: “A backwards somersaulting tumbling movement similar to a back handspring, except that the hands don’t touch the floor.”

  15. Victoria

    I think the issue is Tax, whenever this issue is raised, it is bad for anyone involved in it.

    Unless the issue is followed by the term “Cuts”

    I have never met anyone who thinks they have too much money, I have never met anyone who says they do not pay enough tax. I have never met anyone who declare they are a high income earner

  16. [The polls took a dive for Labor when they started talking about climate change again]

    I thought it was when they said they wanted to put a price on carbon pollution and Tone immediately screamed GBNT.

  18. I wonder out loud, in retrospect; perhaps regulation would be the most politically saleable approach to ghgas reductions in Oz.

  19. [“He can run all the spin and trickery he wants at the moment but what we do know is that the budget deficit this year will be larger than anything they have forecast,” Mr Hockey said.]

    Joe must have been sleeping off a large pizza while the floods happened. I really wonder how they can get away with such distortions of reality. But then, Joe missed the GFC, too, and blamed “spin and trickery”.

  21. [I wonder out loud, in retrospect; perhaps regulation would be the most politically saleable approach to ghgas reductions in Oz.]

    Yes, but would it be the most effective? Also regulations are relatively easy for incoming govts to change – witness what the Republicans are doing in the US. Whereas if we were to implement an ETS, I don’t think future govts would wind it back.

  23. Two degrees is in the bag. That is the Do-nothing success story to date.

    The only real question remaining is how far above two degrees.

  24. [I also keep wondering when we’re going to see the bottoming out of the polls for Labor.]

    If/When the government gets the carbon price legislation through parliament – after July, it’ll be much easier for Gillard to legislate for this, the mining tax, other reforms which Abbott is vehemently opposing.

  25. confessions
    Theoretically:

    Zero primary vote for Labor. 100% dissatisfaction rating for Ms Gillard. 0% 2PP for Labor.

  26. The NSW Greens very confident they’ll win the final legislative council seat, despite the ABC calling Hanson as the likely victor.

  27. Anyone know if this is legit?

    [A BIZARRE memo that appears to prove that aliens did land near the American town of Roswell has been published by the FBI.

    The bureau has made thousands of files available in a new online resource called The Vault.

    Among them is a memo to the director from Guy Hottel, the special agent in charge of the Washington field office in 1950.

    In the memo, whose subject line is “Flying Saucers”, Agent Hottel reveals that an Air Force investigator had stated that “three so-called flying saucers had been recovered in New Mexico”.

    The investigator gave the information to a special agent, he said.

    The FBI has censored both the agent and the investigator’s identity.

    Agent Hottel went on to write: “They were described as being circular in shape with raised centers, approximately 50 feet in diameter.

    “Each one was occupied by three bodies of human shape but only 3 feet tall,” he stated.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/fbi-memo-says-roswell-saucers-were-real/story-fn6bqphm-1226036846002

  29. Just to repeat (from my post last week) another interesting finding from the definitive
    “2010 Australian Election Study” as giving us some objective understanding
    of the 2010 vote.

    Only 21.2% of the voters surveyed who switched from ALP in 2007 to vote
    Liberal in 2010, reported leadership issues as the most important reason
    for their vote.

    Further, 20% of the (admittedly fewer number) of voters who switched from
    Lib 2007 to ALP in 2010 also reported leadership as their most important
    reason.

    This puts to a conclusive end the constant claims by some posters here
    that the overthrow of Rudd was a major factor in Labor’s drop in
    support.

  30. Noticed this tidbit in an article by Phillip Hudson in the Herald Sun today, on pokies

    [
    Whatever deal is finally struck, Wilkie wants legislation passed next year before the next election, when he could be voted out.

    He earned just 13,788 first-preference votes in the election but believes he’s acting on behalf of millions of Australians.

    “If the reform is reasonably crafted and the implementation managed well and explained well, this will be a vote winner for the Government, not a vote loser,” Wilkie says.

    A mate says the Tasmanian independent is “crazy brave” and doesn’t care if this brings down Gillard or costs him his seat.

    “He lost his career at ONA by becoming a whistleblower because he thought it was the right thing to do. He thinks this is the right thing too.”
    ]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pms-in-for-a-clubbing-on-pokies/story-e6frfhqf-1226036921020

  31. I don’t have any major concerns about current polling, other than subjecting us to another anti-Gillard tirade from Thomas.

    Even the current negative rating of Gillard is related to the “you lied” meme. That will die down in time. The detail of the carbon pricing scheme will change the nature of the debate. I love Mungo but don’t agree he’s got it right that Abbott is winning at present. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

    I don’t agree that Gillard is not cutting through. On the contrary, I believe she’s finally learnt the lesson of going for ‘achievement’ goals for the public good and putting aside polling noise. It worked for Chifley two generations or so back.

    Truth and substance will triumph in time.

  37. [On the contrary, I believe she’s finally learnt the lesson of going for ‘achievement’ goals for the public good and putting aside polling noise.]

    Yes, there’s been a perceptible shift since the election away from pushing ‘announceables’ every day. I have to say it’s been a refreshing change.

  39. yes wasnt it boring announcing something every day,
    when you think back some weeks you hardly hard a peep out of howard

  40. Gorgeous Dunny,

    I noticed you didn’t think much of that article I posted from The Age of that longtime ALP member who thinks the party is basically dead.

    I’ve said on here before I don’t think the ALP has that long to go. I think the Left will split from the party within the next 20 years and merge with the Greens and will probably come up with a new name for that party.

  44. [I’ve said on here before I don’t think the ALP has that long to go. I think the Left will split from the party within the next 20 years and merge with the Greens and will probably come up with a new name for that party.]

    Adam we will worry about that in 20 years, who knows by then there may be another party also.
    just look back at the history of the liberal have you HEARD OF JOESEPH LYONS

  46. [just look back at the history of the liberal have you HEARD OF JOESEPH LYONS]

    Never heard of him. I know about the IPA’s role in the formation of the Liberal party if he had anything to do with that.

  47. Kamikazes sank around 50 ships and damaged around 300 hundred more.

    So it is theoretically possible that the Gillard Government is on the right track in pursuing initiative after initiative in the teeth of opposition from rent seekers and Do-nothings.

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