The latest Essential Research survey shows the Coalition’s two-party vote steady on 53-47, while also pointing to a continuing drift away from Labor who for the second week in a row have shed a point on the primary vote, now at 35 per cent. The Greens have gained a point to 11 per cent, with the Coalition steady on 46 per cent. Essential’s monthly personal rating questions find approval for Julia Gillard at a new low of 37 per cent (down four points on March) with disapproval at a new high of 50 per cent (up four points). This puts her in very similar terrain to Tony Abbott, down two on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 44-33 to 42-33. Further questions looked at “reason for budget deficit”, measures which should be taken to restore it (63 per cent favour “increase taxes for big corporations”), Tony Abbott’s welfare proposal (reaction a bit more hostile than I might have thought) and perceptions of the difference between Labor and the Greens.
Also made available to the public last week were results from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents after each election with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and media use. You can access the result by registering with the Australian Social Science Data Archive, and having done so can probably waste days on end running cross-tabulations to investigate your pet theories about why the election played out the way it did. This is done through the internet and by mailout, and while biases are introduced by the survey’s reliance on self-completion, its aggregate results reasonably approximate reality: Labor 41 per cent (38.0 per cent at the election), the Coalition 44.5 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens on 9.5 per cent (11.8 per cent).
Among other things, respondents are asked to rank various election issues as of high, middling or no importance. The changes in these from the 2007 to 2010 elections make terrific reading for the Coalition. Scholars of political communications and electoral behaviour are very keen on the principle of “issue ownership”, and the need for political parties to place the issues they own high on the agendas of the media and the public. In 2007, John Howard paid dearly for the salience of industrial relations and environmental issues. Environment and global warming were respectively rated as highly important by 59 per cent and 51 per cent, respondents in the respective categories splitting 64-36 and 68-32 to Labor. Fifty-one per cent nominated industrial relations as of high importance, and although you might expect this to account for both pro- and anti-union positions, these respondents split 65-35 for Labor.
In 2010, concern for all three of these measures went through the floor: environment down to 42 per cent, global warming to 30 per cent and industrial relations to 28 per cent. However, whereas the Labor vote was actually higher than in 2007 among those concerned about the environment (65-35) and global warming (72-28), they slackened from 65-35 to 60-40 among those concerned about industrial relations. The pattern of industrial relations was reflected to a smaller extent by a 2007 Rudd showpiece, education, which was rated as very important by 69 per cent in 2007 and 62 per cent in 2010, with Labor’s lead on the issue falling from 59-41 to 56-44. The highest rated issue overall was health and Medicare, rated very important by 76 per cent, and on which Labor’s lead slipped from 58-42 to 53-47.
In each issue category noted so far, Labor held the lead. Where the election was nearly lost was economic management: not included as a distinct category in the 2007 survey, in 2010 it came second to health and Medicare with a highly important rating of 74 per cent. This three-quarters of the electorate favoured the Coalition 53-47, such that the remaining quarter had to break 63-37 Labor’s way for the ledger to be evened. The Coalition’s other leads related to other economic issues and immigration. The latter issue gained salience compared with the 2007 election; the only other issue measured both times was, for some reason, the Labor-friendly issue of unemployment.
| HIGH IMP | CHANGE | ALP 2PP | CHANGE | |
| Health and Medicare | 76% | 0% | 53% | -5% |
| Education | 62% | -7% | 56% | -3% |
| Unemployment | 45% | 6% | 55% | -2% |
| Interest Rates | 43% | 1% | 48% | -5% |
| Environment | 42% | -17% | 65% | 1% |
| Taxation | 39% | 1% | 46% | -2% |
| Population Policy | 36% | 5% | 46% | -3% |
| Global warming | 30% | -21% | 72% | 4% |
| Industrial Relations | 28% | -23% | 60% | -5% |
| Economic Management | 74% | 47% | ||
| Refugees/Asylum Seekers | 38% | 46% | ||
| Resources Tax | 32% | 45% |
The next thing I found noteworthy concerned the matter of religious observance. The chart below shows the primary vote share in 2004, 2007 and 2010 for two categories of person: those who never engage in formal religious observance of any kind and those who do, however rarely (“less than once a year” inclusive). From Mark Latham to Kevin Rudd, the Labor vote among observers shot up by 9 per cent, about 1.5 per cent higher than the increase among non-observers. But with an atheist back in the Labor leadership in 2010, their primary vote among the former group slumped to only two points higher than it had been under Latham, whereas support among non-observers held firm.
Finally, something I’m not entirely sure what to make of. The following chart breaks down the primary vote according to when respondents say they decided how to vote. This tells a counter-intuitive story of the Coalition having it all over Labor among those deciding a long time before the election, with other punters breaking for Labor in increasing numbers up to and including on polling day. The chart also shows that this pattern was not followed in 2007, lest it be surmised that late voters incline to break for Labor due to their tendency to be of lower income and educational attainment. The first thing to be noted about this is that it doesn’t reflect the story told over time by the opinion polls, but this is not to say the findings are incompatible: pollsters rarely get a non-response rate of more than 4 per cent,
so the great majority of late deciders are not so undecided earlier in the piece that they are unable to offer some kind of response. One narrative which might be imposed on the figures is that a great many Labor voters who might have responded with “long time before” had their confidence shaken by the leadership change, but ultimately came home during the campaign.
[just look back at the history of the liberal have you HEARD OF JOESEPH LYONS
Never heard of him. I know about the IPA’s role in the formation of the Liberal party if he had anything to do with that.]
with respect if you have not heard of joe lyons you dont know much about politics or australia
ok who was the first pm no looking up google
and what party was he from.
[I think the Left will split from the party within the next 20 years and merge with the Greens]
I think it’s more likely that the Greens will prove themselves to be incapable of managing the fiscal responsibilities of government and that many from the Green Left will merge with the ALP.
back after tea to see if you know.
also who was the little digger and what was his occupation
Malcolm Turnbull on The Drum tonight.
Someone let Bernard Keane know he’d be beside himself to miss out on basking in the brilliance of his beloved Malcolm.
correction:
…many from the Green Left will merge with the ALP.
[with respect if you have not heard of joe lyons you dont know much about politics or australia
ok who was the first pm no looking up google
and what party was he from.]
No, I see where you’re going with this. No dice.
correction:
…many from the Green Left will merge with the ALP.”
should read
…many from the Green Right will merge with the ALP.”
my say:
People have been predicting the end of the ALP for decades.
No doubt in the decades to come the predictions will continue. Ho hum.
Meanwhile, great to see that the ADF is going to have inquiries into various matters concerning its culture. I just hope they won’t be internal inquiries.
[No dice]
Seriously, if you don’t know who Lyons is you need to brush up on some history.
[I think it’s more likely that the Greens will prove themselves to be incapable of managing the fiscal responsibilities of government and that many from the Green Left will merge with the ALP.]
Highly unlikely as they would already be in the ALP then. Everyone and their dog knows if you want to be a professional politician the Labor Party is a far better vehicle for that than the Greens.
A neighbor just gave us a feed of Jerusalem Artichokes.
Any ideas on preparing them, Bludgers?
Having been involved with the defence forces via friends, I can tell you that the gender issue is not the only issue. The extreme behaviour and treatment of defence force personnel by other defence force personnel is the norm. In any other workplace, they would be facing not only disciplinary action but legal action.
Adam
Re Pilger it was excellent! Some of the footage was very hard to watch and as for what that ex serviceman had to say it was frightening!
And to think the public bought the garbage spread by Governments and the Media makes you feel ashamed.
Where is the independent media? A few good men rose to the occasion in that program lets hope it continues.
Kidette
All hiding under the guise of “discipline”.
[Sex Discrimination Commissioner Elizabeth Broderick will examine the treatment of women at ADFA and in the Australian Defence Force more broadly, while a “cultural stocktake” will be also undertaken into behaviour standards in the military.]
I did say the other day I’d love to see the faces of the top brass if the feminists were given access to the ADF. Much choking on cigars and sputtering into scotches.
[Mr Smith said he was disappointed in Commodore Kafer’s handling of the initial allegations by the 18-year-old female cadet, and his decision to continue with an unrelated disciplinary hearing against her.
“I believe that was an error of judgment. A serious error of judgment,” he said.]
Neil James and the ADA criticised the minister for his comments. If you want to see spineless look no further than the ADA which has essentially argued for status quo – totally unacceptable and indefensible.
SK:
Kafer has been stood down, but the male cadets involved in the scandal have not.
[A neighbor just gave us a feed of Jerusalem Artichokes.]
BK: You’re not taking bribes now are you BK? (ala Baldric and his turnip) 🙂
While we and MSM spend time talking about Rudd/Gillard and perceived problems for govt, what about the coal?
I think Abbs first plan was to destabilise the Indies and hope for new election.
But if this failed and July 1 came around then that first plan also becomes the fallback.
The plan was to create havoc and damage brand Gillard. I think this is working and made so much easier with compliant MSM.
After July 1 many of the issues now will become non issues. Where is the Flood levy, the Health changes, the NBN? These are fundamentally off the radar now but at the time they were vehicles for coal to damage brand Gillard. After July 1 pokies, Carbon, Resource tax could well be also off the radar but again provided the forum to damage brand Gillard.
At the same time Abbs is shoring his big $$ support base.
But and this is the big but I don’t think Abb can win the next election and I think he knows that. I seriously wonder if he wants to be PM. However, drawing from his sport background he is prepared to do the hard yards, to do all the dirty work so he can position the party to win under another leader.Remember at the next election most of todays defining issues will be resolved and it could well be a contest between a damaged Gillard and a new coal leader. Who that would be I dont know. Maybe Turnbull….and before the points about his unpopularity I think that unpopularity was with the extreme right who would have gone back to libs when it came to the crunch. He would have more of an appeal to centre right and as I said earlier many of the contentious issues of today would be non issues and those lobbies like miners, tobacco etc would have no point in opposing Turnbull because legislation would already be in place…and Abbs would be a self sacrificing hero to the libs.
[Kafer has been stood down…]
Technically he is “taking leave”. ????
“How dare they take away my addiction!” is the theme of the pokies barons’ ad, says Mrk Pesce , advertising guru, on The Drum.
[Re Pilger it was excellent! Some of the footage was very hard to watch and as for what that ex serviceman had to say it was frightening!
And to think the public bought the garbage spread by Governments and the Media makes you feel ashamed.
Where is the independent media? A few good men rose to the occasion in that program lets hope it continues.]
It certainly was. At certain stages of the show I could feel my blood starting to boil. No one does that better than Tony Blair. I despise everything about the man and it’s a shame Rudd and the modern day ALP have modelled themselves on vacuous fkwits like him. The Assange stuff at the end was interesting but I think Pilger fawns over the guy a bit too much.
Who read Neil James’ comments on the matter from yesterday
I highlight some salient points
[10 April 2011
Echoes of Dreyfus: Independent inquiry now needed
From the beginning, the Australia Defence Association has unreservedly condemned the despicable abuse of a female cadet at ADFA when her consensual sex with a male cadet was filmed and relayed to others without her consent.
But two wrongs do not make a right . There are two sides to every story.
The ADA does not consider this one incident is indicative of a systemic problem or a diseased culture at the Australian Defence Force Academy (although the academy did have some problems in the 1990s).
We have also therefore condemned the largely inaccurate and sensationalist media coverage that has confused many Australians into believing that the commandant and staff at ADFA have been derelict in their professional duties, or that they have somehow behaved dishonourably in grappling with this complex incident, or that there is a widespread problem involved.
Unfortunately the level of public confusion about this matter has continued to be whipped up by false, exaggerated, anonymous, sensationalist or mistaken allegations being irresponsibly published and broadcast by the media as fact. This has been worsened by uninformed comments by public figures who could not possibly know, and in many cases understand, all the circumstances and the law involved.
Even when the Minister for Defence has confirmed various allegations as incorrect, the media has continued to make them. This has deepened public confusion and anger about the original incident.
It also seems that the defence force has been gagged by its Minister in explaining what actually happened. It certainly seems the case that ADFA in particular, and the defence force in general, have been prevented from doing so in a timely enough fashion to stop public concern becoming confusion and increasingly much worse.
This media sensationalism and widespread public confusion has led to mistaken and unfair calls for the Commandant of ADFA to be sacked, and to mistaken and false allegations about him, his actions and ADFA as a whole. Such public hysteria, if not lanced by facts and calm refutations, risks ending up as the type of injustice that put Alfred Dreyfus before previous kangaroo courts.
The Minister for Defence’s horror at the original incident is justified, but some of his statements and interventions have unfortunately exacerbated, not helped fix, the situation.
Particularly his unprecedented and unfair public scape-goating of the Commandant of ADFA for doing his duty as the commander of all those involved, the Minister’s apparent inattention to the provisions of the Defence Act relating to how our defence force is properly commanded under his civil control, and his unwarranted (and potentially unlawful) interference in separate, very low-level, very minor, disciplinary proceedings contrary to precedent, the letter and spirit of the Act, and the principle of the separation of powers.
An independent inquiry is now required to establish and publicise the facts of the matter. This will restore public confidence in the way our defence force handles such incidents, and allow those falsely accused and defamed the opportunity of defending themselves and their honour.
The terms of reference of such an inquiry should include the actions of the Minister and his staff.
The ADA also considers that the Minister for Defence should publicly apologise to Commodore Bruce Kafer in the interim.
Finally, this matter has nothing to do with politics or the defence force somehow resisting ministerial control or reform of the Department of Defence. Indeed the Minister’s actions appear to have undermined the principle of civil control of the military and the necessary apoliticism of our defence force in both fact and perception.]
BK,
That is the scary thing. If you are found to be lagging on your mates YOU are ‘disciplined’. It is not a healthy environment, and it is both mental and physical abuse on a daily basis they experience.
They have no outlet. The people above them all went through the same experiences and think that is ‘normal’.
Neil James demanded an independent investigation into the sex claims and into the Minister’s handling of the matter. He also demanded Smith apologise to Kafer.
Sometimes, life doesn’t work out how you want it to. 😀
I think it’s time for the armed forces to get a new union thug as their mouthpiece.
Evan 14 (26)
I do hope you are right about the Greens and the last seat, the thought of Pauline
Hanson in gives me nightmares as well as daymares
Snip spikes off ends of Artichokes slowly poached or steamed in salty water and olive oil until tender.
Add salt, pepper butter
Start on rough outer leaves strip inner flesh with bottom incisors.discard tough skin. Tastes quite strong. As you go inwards they get sweeter and more tender. By the time you get to the heart, mouth orgasm.
I think you should boycott the artichokes until the Palestinian people have achieved self-determination
[A neighbor just gave us a feed of Jerusalem Artichokes.
BK: You’re not taking bribes now are you BK? (ala Baldric and his turnip)]
myk
I’m as pure as the driven snow. I had just given them some rhubarb, mushrooms, tomatoes and cucumber.
[Highly unlikely …]
Your little mental wet dream is even less likely. The Greens will be seen to be a party that that offers many things that are seemingly attractive until we look at the price tag. Then it’ll be a case of putting the policy back on the hanger and moving to a store where we can afford the goods.
But that’d be globe artichokes I just described….Jerusalem boil like spuds I think
BK,
You gave away rhubarb? My favourite dessert of all time is Rhubarb Crumble with King Island Cream! Yum 😀
How medieval is this?
[From the beginning, the Australia Defence Association has unreservedly condemned the despicable abuse of a female cadet at ADFA when her consensual sex with a male cadet was filmed and relayed to others without her consent.
But two wrongs do not make a right . There are two sides to every story. ]
Is that a she-was-asking-for-it type comment?
[That is the scary thing. If you are found to be lagging on your mates YOU are ‘disciplined’. It is not a healthy environment, and it is both mental and physical abuse on a daily basis they experience.
They have no outlet. The people above them all went through the same experiences and think that is ‘normal’.]
Kidette
Now there IS an interesting parallel to such behaviour. Now what could that be?
or fry or roast….also known as fartichokes…can be flatulence provoking
[Your little mental wet dream is even less likely. The Greens will be seen to be a party that that offers many things that are seemingly attractive until we look at the price tag. Then it’ll be a case of putting the policy back on the hanger and moving to a store where we can afford the goods.]
Don’t start getting childish you were doing well up to that point. Yes, the Greens have a way to go in terms of ecomonic policies but I don’t think the public are as anywhere near worried about “price tags” as you might think.
Where was the outrage when Howard blew a billion dollars on the JSP project for jets that never even made it into the air?
[BK,
You gave away rhubarb? My favourite dessert of all time is Rhubarb Crumble with King Island Cream! Yum]
Kidette
Our first veggie garden up here went BERSERK! I reckon we have sugar boiled more than 20 kg of rhubarb and given away plenty.
Plus lots and lots of spicy tomato sauce and tomato, capsicum (also grown), etc pasta sauce.
The Drum is mind numbingly mind numbing. Blah blah blah talking point talking point. Unconsidered remark, unconisdered remark.
[Technically he is “taking leave”. ????]
But … “unlikely to return”.
The eight victims in the Phone Hacking Scandal have knocked back Ruperts settlement offers and have insisted that Rup go to court!
Wooohoo! Can’t wait for that court case 😈
blue-green:
Neil James’ comments on this issue are no better than Senators Johnston and Minchin.
They don’t want change, and you have to ask yourself, what sort of organisation prioritisies the sentivities and egos of the heirarchy above the wellbeing of the ADF staff?
[
The Drum is mind numbingly mind numbing. Blah blah blah talking point talking point. Unconsidered remark, unconisdered remark.
]
bluegreen
It’s a shocker tonight
The Drum not very complimentary about NewsCorp’s ethics.
BK,
Sounds like a fantastic garden. What are you feeding them?
[The Drum is mind numbingly mind numbing. Blah blah blah talking point talking point. Unconsidered remark, unconisdered remark.]
It is a bit like that especially when they have spinners on there. The ABC should never allow PR types on their shows.
another quake in Japan???
Nothing to see here folks. Move on…
[Simon_Cullen ADFA Graduates Assoc: “The culture of ADFA and defence is sound” }
[BK,
Sounds like a fantastic garden. What are you feeding them?]
Kidette.
We have an ample supply of horse poo.
And Mrs BK never does things in half measures. Also we are fortunate to have black sandy loam up here.
And starting from next Sunday we’ll have a supply of chicken poo.
[“The culture of ADFA and defence is sound”]
and with Skype it has vision as well.
Kidette
Forgot to mention that Mrs BK has just started action to increase the garden size by another 70%
Begorrah!!!
Confessions,
Sorry, I missed your earlier post about Kafer being stood down but not the cadets. On what basis did the seven not get stood down? I can’t think of one good reason why they weren’t stood down immediately.