Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition

For the third week in a row Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll, which have had appropriately erratic results. All three have had the Coalition in front: by 56-44 on March 8-10, 51-49 on March 16-17 and now 54-46 on March 22-24 (as always, the caveat must be added that I am using the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure, rather than “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” as highlighted by Morgan). The latest result has Labor’s primary vote down only a point to 34.5 per cent – not so different from Newspoll – but lower results for the non-major parties have pushed the Coalition from 42.5 per cent to 47 per cent. The Greens are down two to 10 per cent. The poll had a sample of 542 and a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked the rather odd question of who out of Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull “would best represent Australia internationally”. Kevin Rudd led on 35 per cent, with Gillard on 21 per cent, Abbott on 19 per cent and Turnbull on 17 per cent. Curiously, the “good” poll for Labor last week had much fewer respondents thinking they would win the next election (30.5 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition) compared with the two worse results on either side (37-54 and 37-52.5).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. Name one of the current Canberra Press Gallery who is doing an effective and objective job of analysing policy from either side of politics, as opposed to the examples of the questions asked of Abbott in his press conference this afternoon?

    Paul Borgonio ? Channel 10 news

  4. [Solution: police will come around in a divvy van to take transport officers to toilets.

    The police are not impressed.]

    Or, they could bring buckets with them and save a return trip – remember Mel Brook’s History of the World? Oh p*ss boy!

  5. [zoomster

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear.

    One of Ballieu’s promises was at least two transport officers on every station after dark.

    Problem: half of Victoria’s stations don’t have toilets or eating facilities.

    Solution: police will come around in a divvy van to take transport officers to toilets.

    The police are not impressed.
    ]

    In WA with the exception of the Joondalup and Mandurah Line – Only thr older type of stations with toilet and office facilities are staffed by TRansit officers.

  9. victoria
    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:39 pm | Permalink

    J6P

    Yes, Paul Bongiorno is a fair and balanced reporter.

    TY for the correct spelling of his name

  10. This is the last paragraph of a piece in The Age. Now I know what Abbott said in QT, when he was asked to withdraw by Harry.

    [Later, Leader of the House Anthony Albanese accused Mr Abbott of ”a misogynous” parliamentary interjection. Nationals frontbencher Luke Hartsuyker had ”referred to the Prime Minister as ‘the witch’. Abbott added, ‘Where’s your broomstick?’,” Mr Albanese said. Both Mr Hartsuyker and Mr Abbott withdrew their interjections]

  11. [victoria

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    zoomster

    Ballieu and his team are starting to look very second rate.

    I am starting to miss the Labor govt.
    ]

    But like Barnett, will be propped up by our useless media.

    NSW will discover this on sunday Morning.

  12. Some of the names being mentioned are perhaps worthy of some merit, but they are in most cases not part of the Canberra Press gallery, but journos, or columnists writing for various media outlets in other capital cities – there is a subtle, but distinct difference.

    The point I was trying to make is the inability of those journos physically present in Canberra to confront Abbott at his hit and run press conferences with some tough policy questions, instead of the trivia that he is currently being asked about by these amateurs.

  15. [victoria

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    The Age newspaper here in Melbourne are so far holding Ballieu and his team to account.
    ]

    You have two dailies – we only have one – The West Australian- and with a few minor exceptions they are still propping up Barnett – especially on the mining Tax and now Royalties.

  16. I’ll name five:

    Taylor, Tingle, Farr, Middleton, Megalogenis are consistently good. Oakes and Grattan were good but are fading fast. There are a few others that are good in parts: Gittins, Probyn, Coorey.

    Happy to consider others.

  17. [Solution: police will come around in a divvy van to take transport officers to toilets.]

    Police are only overworked and inappropriately utilised when you are in opposition. Once you get into govt it’s a different story.

  18. [Nationals frontbencher Luke Hartsuyker had ”referred to the Prime Minister as ‘the witch’. Abbott added, ‘Where’s your broomstick?’]
    And the Rabbott claims not to endorse the rabid misogynistic protesters?

  21. Let’s develop a person specification for a PM, listing required attributes. I’ll kick it off – and then we can give ticks and crosses to Gillard and Abbott.
    – Quick thinking
    – Ability to quickly understand and respond to questions and circumstances
    – Personable (as seen by the public)
    – Respected by world peers
    – Has the ability and courage to clearly respond to many unscripted questions
    – Demonstrated ability to be across important portfolios and have sufficient detail at his or her disposal to communicate a position
    – Capability to successfully negotiate complex issues and disputes
    – Able to compromise gracefully

    Over to you, Bludgers.

  22. [There were others calling for a royal commission into the 1966 disappearance of the Beaumont children, ]

    *words fail*

  24. [confessions

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    Solution: police will come around in a divvy van to take transport officers to toilets.

    Police are only overworked and inappropriately utilised when you are in opposition. Once you get into govt it’s a different story.
    ]

    Haven’t the vics got roving Transit officers like in WA who have caged utes to deliver baddies arrested to the lock up etc ??

  26. [171

    BK

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

    Let’s develop a person specification for a PM, listing required attributes. I’ll kick it off – and then we can give ticks and crosses to Gillard and Abbott.
    – Quick thinking
    – Ability to quickly understand and respond to questions and circumstances
    – Personable (as seen by the public)
    – Respected by world peers
    – Has the ability and courage to clearly respond to many unscripted questions
    – Demonstrated ability to be across important portfolios and have sufficient detail at his or her disposal to communicate a position
    – Capability to successfully negotiate complex issues and disputes
    – Able to compromise gracefully

    Over to you, Bludgers.
    ]

    Being able to deal with publicity stunts/media events with good grace.

  27. I think we all agree that Laura Tingle stands head and shoulders above the rest. Also she is personable, is without “attitude” and is not full of herself.

  28. [While the impact of this imagery will depend on whether viewers like or dislike Ms Gillard in the first place (or Mr Abbott for that matter), there is potentially a more deleterious and long-lasting impression left by Mr Abbott’s appearance at the rally.

    And once again, it goes to whether he believes or not in human-induced climate change. He often says he does, indeed he said it at the rally, but other comments he’s made recently suggest he’s not so sure.]

    He’s trying to walk both sides of the fence: he knows that if says he does not accept AGW as a scientific phenomenon he loses mainstream Australia. But OTOH he can’t alienate his base, who are the denialists and Do-Nothings in the minority, and in his partyroom who got him into the leadership.

    It’s a terrible conundrum!

  31. 78% support UN involvement. I wonder how ‘involvement’ was defined in the question? It demonstrates the limitation of polling in gathering nuanced information.

  33. confessions

    I believe the no carbon bunch should have a good turnout next week. It will be on a Saturday morning in the Sydney CBD. On the other hand, I really do hope the pro crowd have a great turnout. The msm will be tracking the popularity of each rally.

  34. i’m glad Abbott has stuffed up.
    This whole Abbott leadership has been like a dream where you can see how the bloke is manipulating every word, every photo opportunity, every insinuation.
    I thought Howard was the master of the dog whistle.
    Abbott’s employing the dog megaphone.
    I don’t reckon I’m the smartest tool in the shed, but why would people trust this obviously deceptive and shifty person.

  35. Abbott is a denialist. End of story. The pattern is persistent and consistent. He can’t ‘do’ economics. He can’t ‘do’ science. He can do religion. He is a denier in the sense that he literally cannot ‘believe’ in it.

  38. victoria:

    I hope the Get-Up rally does well in Sydney. I’ll do everything I can to get my family there – being on a Saturday will help as my brother and his wife work.

  39. [NSW will discover this on sunday Morning.]

    [The Age newspaper here in Melbourne are so far holding Ballieu and his team to account.]

    Sydney has two papers as well. The Herald (The Age’s sister paper) from Fairfax, and The Terrorgraph, a true Limited News tabloid.

    The Herald will do a fair job, the Terrorgraph – well that publishes Devine, Ackerman, Bolt, etc..

  40. confessions

    that would be great. Don’t know where you will be coming from. But the rally is conveniently located next to Central Station. My experience from the Melbourne rally is that it will go for about one hour. They may have a band playing a few songs and have a few key note speakers. The director of Getup Simon Sheikh spoke at the Melbourne rally. He was excellent.

  41. One of the ‘problems’ that Liberal strategists had with Gillard in the last election was how to attack her personally without seeming to be nasty for attacking a woman.

    (Various indirect methods were used in the background sense. She was barren. She was not married. Abbott’s wife and kids appeared.)

    Abbott is getting away with talking in front of sign in front of a nationally televised event. That sign said, ‘JewLiar is Bob Brown’s Bitch.’ He has not apologised. In fact he has inverted the situation by claiming that the Prime Minister started it.

    Abbott has created the new normal.

    Abbott has finally solved a ‘problem.’

  43. I hope Sydney is huge… a family affair, picnic, children playing, face painting and a friendly atmosphere to make the contrast between the hate filled revolting people.

    It would be a great opportunity for factual information distribution and for ‘green energy’ technology and suppliers even…. 🙂

  44. victoria:

    Central Station certainly is convenient and accessible. I’m sure it will be positive as the Melbourne one was, not the hateful protest of the revolting people.

    Boerwar:

    You have echoed my puzzlement as to why Abbott is allowed to get away with this bullying whereas Latham was derided for it. I have no answers.

  45. Boerwar

    I have already alluded to this in an earlier post, but my parents and a friend (they are in their 60-70’s) watched QT yesterday. They all said that Abbott was disgusting, and he was behaving badly towards the PM because she was a woman, and that it is a very bad look. They all felt that woman especially would be sickened by his disrespectful rude and arrogant behaviour towards the PM.

  47. Victoria,

    I only operate in football season. Going tomorrow with my son and daughter and my brother to the PA game.
    Premiership was great, but I am so worn out with how Abbott is presented to me in the papers and news. Hate to say this, but I’m getting to the point where I think its never going to change.

    Mirabella’s staffer boasts about the public purse paying for him to cab it from Albury to Melb, but now its apparently a situation where he always intended to pay for the cab – Might I say BULL SHIT! YOU’RE PAYING THE CAB FARE BECAUSE YOU ARE ONE DUMB F/// WHO IS SO FAR UP HIMSELF YOU COULDN’T LINK THE FACT THAT BOASTING ABOUT TAXPAYERS PAYING FOR YOUR ALBURY TO MELBOURNE CAB BECAUSE YOU DON’T DO BUSES ON THE INTERNET WOULDNT GET PICKED UP BY THE MEDIA’.

    Yet I’m sure Harry Jenkins treated Christopher Pyne slightly badly, or Julia Gillard had the audacity to look like a woman in her 40’s, so these are the things that need to be pumped up and reiterated in the mainstream.

    I am now going to the shed to go one step further than the herd of “Cletus the Slack Jawed Yokels” and make a sign that says “Burn the witch”.

    I’m guessing that’s the next step in the people’s revolution and I don’t wan’t to be left behind

  48. 1982CFC

    Enjoy tomorrow’s game.

    I too read the piece about Mirabella’s staffer.

    Keep the faith, the worm may yet turn. We may see the end of the reign of the emperor with no clothes (or in this case – no budgie smugglers)!!

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