Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition

For the third week in a row Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll, which have had appropriately erratic results. All three have had the Coalition in front: by 56-44 on March 8-10, 51-49 on March 16-17 and now 54-46 on March 22-24 (as always, the caveat must be added that I am using the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure, rather than “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” as highlighted by Morgan). The latest result has Labor’s primary vote down only a point to 34.5 per cent – not so different from Newspoll – but lower results for the non-major parties have pushed the Coalition from 42.5 per cent to 47 per cent. The Greens are down two to 10 per cent. The poll had a sample of 542 and a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked the rather odd question of who out of Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull “would best represent Australia internationally”. Kevin Rudd led on 35 per cent, with Gillard on 21 per cent, Abbott on 19 per cent and Turnbull on 17 per cent. Curiously, the “good” poll for Labor last week had much fewer respondents thinking they would win the next election (30.5 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition) compared with the two worse results on either side (37-54 and 37-52.5).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Don’t know if this was for real

    [PAUL_AUSVOTES | 1 minute ago
    Lady at pre-poll today told me she voted for Julia. She was disgusted when I told her it was state so she voted for Kristina. #nswvotes]

  3. Confessions: dead right.

    Hammer Abbott on his weak spot – policy. Actually, as I write this I am struggling to think of his strong point beyond being an offensive, abusive bully.

    That’s it, really.

  4. Victoria: I meet those people every day working in politics.

    If I had a dollar for every person who comes into a State MP’s office to complain about something related to federal politics, I’d be able to bankroll the NBN.

  6. Gary:

    You can fight back without getting personal.

    I didn’t watch QT yesterday, but if what Milne says about the PM’s reply to Tone’s motion is a true reflection, then I think it demeans her to be brawling at Abbott’s level. Plus, it gives him an advantage by legitimising his own personal attacks.

    Sometimes the best way of dealing with bullies is to simply rise above them.

  7. I may be the odd one out but I think Julia knew exactly what she was doing the last two days of QT. Remember it was the last opportunity for Abbott to have any real front and centre impact for six weeks.

    By her actions Julia kept Abbotts “rally moment” front and centre and so did the msm. Abbott could not help himself and instead of hitting the policy in QT continued with the personal attacks.

    He has wasted those last two days ( Wednesday and Thursday ) and instead of the public remembering bad CC policy they will have in their minds bad Abbott. Julia has hit him and moved on. Forget the MSM itself how many negative letters about the CC policy or the PM have you seen over the last three days?

    Not too many I would think. Mostly about Abbott and then you can also include several negative editorials. As i said a final impression not of bad policy but shocker Abbott.

    The PM now has six weeks to concentrate on the policy sell. I think she has made the point about Abbott which is now reinforced in the public mind. She will now move on.

    Observation only.

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    dont worry, be happy

  9. William
    in respect of your Poll ranking I would pretty much agree with youyr ratings but I reckon the Last Newspoll was a rogue and out of sync with the other polls published within the same time frame. It happened earlier in tghe year as well.
    I reckon the Essential methodology of the rolling two weeks polls is pretty accurate as was their form over the last Federal election.
    Too much weight is put on Newpoll nowadays and the media report it breathlessly as if it is sacrosanct which is ridiculous given the sample size. I would have thought around three thousand would be an accurate national sample. What are your views.

  10. [Sometimes the best way of dealing with bullies is to simply rise above them.]
    Doesn’t work. You need to stand up to them. You can’t afford to give an inch.

  11. [ Actually, as I write this I am struggling to think of his strong point ]

    I hear he’s pretty fit physically. 😀

    But your right. I reckon the only reason he’s survived this long in politics is because he’s traded on the patronage of senior party men – notably Howard and his backers.

  12. I think the PM has already done that and can now move on with the policy debate. Abbott looks utterly foolish ranting and raving when it is responded to with a little condescension – let’s leave the kids to their tantrums and the adults can discuss policy.

  13. BK said

    Letter just sent to an SA Senator.

    I’ve heard people talk about a *duty* senator in each state ? or part of a state ?

    Can someone explain how that works etc ?

    Ta muchly.

  14. [I reckon the Last Newspoll was a rogue and out of sync with the other polls published within the same time frame.]
    Last Newspoll and Morgan phone poll were actually close.

  15. confessions @56,

    Tou may be right but I think it is important to remember you are reflecting on a article by Milne.

    His take on the last two days is coming from a perspective with very little objectivity and very little connection with what the public sees and interprets.

  17. [stanny

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    William
    in respect of your Poll ranking I would pretty much agree with youyr ratings but I reckon the Last Newspoll was a rogue and out of sync with the other polls published within the same time frame. It happened earlier in tghe year as well.
    I reckon the Essential methodology of the rolling two weeks polls is pretty accurate as was their form over the last Federal election.
    Too much weight is put on Newpoll nowadays and the media report it breathlessly as if it is sacrosanct which is ridiculous given the sample size. I would have thought around three thousand would be an accurate national sample. What are your views.
    ]

    I think you sre indulging in a bit of this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRjlB_YWTrE

  19. Doyley:

    Yes, I rarely read articles by Milne, but was simply highlighting one paragraph he’d written and agreeing with it.

    My preference is for the govt and the PM to focus on the merits of the carbon tax as a policy initiative. Tone can whinge and moan all he likes about placards, preciousness and so on, but as long as the govt is talking policy, he will always be left behind. If Greg Hunt can’t defend their climate change policy from a bit of scrutiny, what chance does Tone have!

  20. gary @68,

    Agreed.

    I really think she has done a job on Abbott and with clear air for six weeks ( ie no more Parliament and Abbott ranting) she will do even better with the sell.

    confessions @66,

    keep the faith ( smiley face )

  22. Even if one puts Chris Uhlmann’s obvious right wing biases to one side, he is a bad journalist by any measure.

    He has poor written skills, a limited ability to research, undeveloped analytical skills, and no demonstrated ability to think critically. As a result, his work is rarely factual or supported by evidence, and usually laced with opinion, conjecture and, it must be said, gossip. He was also a failed extremist political candidate, which suggests he is more interested in being a political player rather than someone who has an interest in journaling Australian political developments.

    The fact that their ABC saw to promote this consistent under-performer to its flagship current affairs program speaks volumes about its current direction and management structure.

    Not good enough.

  24. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @TurnbullMalcolm good walking. did u walk while in China?. save Australia and The true Liberal Party from CC, got rid of Abbott #auspol
    3 minutes ago

  25. If Greg Combet came out and said no Australian farmer would be prepared to take up the coalition’s offer of $8 per tonne under its policy of soil sequestration, the media would have to put these questions to Abbott.

    Likewise if the PM insisted that the opposition’s policy of planting more trees to abate emissions contained so many riders by the Nats so as to make the emissions abatement part of it worthless, and therefore requiring offsets from other areas, the coalition would have to respond. We all saw the other night what happens to their own shadow minister when these questions are put to him. I can’t imagine Abbott having any coherent, let alone logical response to these.

  27. Frank @ 73

    That rally keeps shifting it’s location. They have variously been going to have their ratbag rally at State Parliament House in Macquarie St, at the Town Hall in George St and now Hyde Park. They are a seriously confused lot. 👿

  28. Confessions is spot on.

    If Abbott was ever asked anything by someone who the Libs had not handpicked for the job – and that’s a big if – it would probably be about banners or boats.

    I reckon climate is this year’s NBN for Abbott, which is why he has been kept hidden away. If someone actually took him to task on detail of climate change and the opposition’s policy he’d be dead meat.

    One of the great conundrums of politics is why nobody in the media will put him under any pressure whatsoever on policy detail.

  30. [Even if one puts Chris Uhlmann’s obvious right wing biases to one side, he is a bad journalist by any measure.

    He has poor written skills, a limited ability to research, undeveloped analytical skills, and no demonstrated ability to think critically. As a result, his work is rarely factual or supported by evidence, and usually laced with opinion, conjecture and, it must be said, gossip. He was also a failed extremist political candidate, which suggests he is more interested in being a political player rather than someone who has an interest in journaling Australian political developments.

    The fact that their ABC saw to promote this consistent under-performer to its flagship current affairs program speaks volumes about its current direction and management structure.]

    Red kezza was a far superior performa to this dunce. As I said in a reverse of ABC taking on David and Margaret they should propose a comeback to Kerry to host a new current affairs show at 7.30pm. Uhlman is utterly inept. his piece on the drum website highlight how poor a journalist he is. If he is going to give the climate sceptics space to justify their position he needs to answer the fundamental question: where is the peer reviewed scientific report equivalent to the IPCC report to justify their position. answer there is none. so all he and the climate sceptics do is cherry picks bits of arguments here and there to justify his position. result he is a poor journalist.

  32. [bemused

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    Frank @ 73

    That rally keeps shifting it’s location. They have variously been going to have their ratbag rally at State Parliament House in Macquarie St, at the Town Hall in George St and now Hyde Park. They are a seriously confused lot.
    ]

    I’ll bet they’re having problems getting police permits and offical council approval – organising a Rally is a bit harder in Sydney than Canberra.

  33. Today’s Abbott doorstop transcript. Aside from the pressers getting shorter and shorter, note that not one question was put to Abbott about policy. The Juliar bitch placard stuff, nasty QT, ADF racism, Campbell Newman’s leadership, passage of the NBN through parliament, and the MPs ejected from a nightclub got up. Not one on policy.

    http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/7948/Doorstop-Interview-Melbourne.aspx

  34. You can fight back without getting personal.

    I didn’t watch QT yesterday, but if what Milne says about the PM’s reply to Tone’s motion is a true reflection, then I think it demeans her to be brawling at Abbott’s level. Plus, it gives him an advantage by legitimising his own personal attacks.

    Sometimes the best way of dealing with bullies is to simply rise above them.

    Hmmm. I don’t recall that approach working very well in the recent past.

    If you do rise above it, what happens is you end up giving tacit endorsement to Abbott and his cohorts to just carry on spreading misinformation and smearing you. And you end up being asked a whole lot of questions from lazy journalists based on Abbott talking points. Rise above that, and you’ll soon find yourself being smeared with the labels ‘aloof’, ‘arrogant’, ‘out of touch’ and so on.

    Same with journalists’ questions in general. Most of them are heavily loaded with incorrect assumptions. These have to be called out. You can’t rise above them or you’ll be caught again giving the impression you endorse them.

    If Abbott smears her, I think she should smear him right back. I wouldn’t advise her to go on the front foot over it, but I would be throwing some of his petty and mean-spirited attacks back in his face.

    In general, the ALP insults are wittier, more incisive and cut deeper than those from the Coalition. So they’ll get airplay. The idea of Abbott as a ‘hollow, bitter man’ is just about spot on.

    If the ALP can get across to the Coalition the message, “don’t mess with us while we’re running the country, or we’ll cut you up,” they’ll find themselves with a lot of clear air before long.

    Bullies are cowards, almost all of them. And they soon go back into their shells if they think they’re going to cop some back. Look at Pyne having a whine already about Gillard being mean. He doesn’t want there to be rancour in Parliament. Then good. Gillard ought to paint him right into that corner.

  36. Aguirre:

    The PM already takes on the loaded assumptions from journos by stating up front that she doesn’t accept the premise of their questions (or wtte of). And I’m not saying she should completely ignore the coalition’s personal attacks, only not to allow herself to get dragged down to Abbott’s level.

    FWIW I think she’s had the balance pretty right of late, but now it’s time to forget Abbott and his accusations of precisousness or whatever, and start talking about the merits of a carbon tax.

  37. An important difference between the Morgan poll and online polls is that Morgan tries to structure its sample to reflect the general electorate. Depending on the sample size an MOE can be calculated.

    Online poll samples essentially structure themselves. Therefore no MOE can be calculated.

  39. Chris Smith from 2GB is predicting they’ll get a crowd of 20,000 for the Sydney Rally – how can he be wrong? 😀

  40. Greeting Bludgers

    The PM is a red head from SA…. I don’t think she should or will back down.

    I’m glad I wasn’t here when Gee desert Truth Wizz Fox that Hurst was here… 🙂

  41. As you know, I’m hardly the world’s greatest Julia fan, but I think she’s done very well over the past few weeks, and that picture of Abbott in front of the nasty banners wil haunt him forever.
    Just as long as the Ruddster is representing us well as Foreign Minister………I’m even more content with this government. 🙂

  42. Tom Hawkins @ 1

    I work in the Market & Social Research industry, so I have had a lot of contact with these companies as competitors and colleagues over the last 20 years, so here goes my ratings as far as opinion polling is concerned, for what they are worth:

    Newspoll = 7
    Morgan F2F = 5
    Morgan Phone = 4
    Galaxy = 5
    Essential = 7
    Nielsen = 6

    We should, of course, still make the clear distinction between the tabular results that are published by these companies, and the sometimes tendentious commentary, or even outright misrepresentations made about the results by alleged ‘experts’ like Shanahan, Gary Morgan always excepted here for his often colourful interpretations of his own results.

    In general, Morgan’s Phone sample is too small to be overly reliable, and the same can be said for some of the local Galaxy polling. Morgan F2F, while statistically more accurate, does need the ‘shy Tory’ factor to be taken into account.

    Nielsen’s sample numbers are larger and their results are generally methodologically robust, but monthly polling may not be picking up some of the volatility in opinions, given our fast 24 hour news cycle.

    Newspoll’s sample numbers on a fortnightly basis are large enough to be pretty accurate, and occuring often enough to detect quick changes in people’s opinions.

    Essential, as the newest of the players, seems to have carved out a niche using their online methodology that is fairly accurate, and their rolling weekly numbers do seem to be picking up many of the quick changes in opinion.

    As a group, we are pretty well served by these various companies, as they are all fairly professional and their differeing methodologies do give us a variety of ways of discerning public opinion with a fair degree of confidence, with the caveat always that one should look carefully at the actual published numbers, and regard any interpretation of those numbers in the MSM as being subject to being taken with a grain of salt, depending on the known biases of the commentator.

  45. I should be clear that what has happened in the last month or so has been done very well.

    I can just see the MSM turning the insult issue into a quagmire to bail Abbott out and spread the blame. To keep him off balance go back into policy now.

    You have other Ministers who can go in hard. Now that the PM has shown she can, she doesn’t have to, if that makes sense.

  46. […is predicting they’ll get a crowd of 20,000 for the Sydney Rally]

    But they have used their rail pass already 🙁

  47. [confessions

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    Chris Smith from 2GB is predicting they’ll get a crowd of 20,000 for the Sydney Rally

    What day is it on?
    ]

    Sat 2nd April

  49. Kiddo, yes, i know. it’s a bit like me when i was young. My parents always said to me:

    Finns, you are a life without porpoise. you will get nowhere.

    Sadly, it’s so true. 😥

    [(Reuters) – A baby dolphin has been rescued in Japan after being dumped in a rice field by a giant tsunami that hit the coast on March 11.]

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