Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW

No polling respite whatsoever for Labor in New South Wales, with an Essential Research survey of 900 respondents conducted over the past three weeks among the worst the government has ever suffered: the Coalition primary vote on a possibly unprecedented 54 per cent against 24 per cent for Labor, with the two-party result at 65-35. The Greens vote is 12 per cent, similar to the 11 per cent from Newspoll last week, but whereas that represented a six point fall in Newspoll the Essential result is that same as their previous poll conducted in late January and early February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

209 comments on “Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. eddie

    I keep my mind open, and if KK wins the election in a week, I will hide under a branch, but I like finding out about candidates and what other people thinks and in a week I will know whether they are correct

    OC please keep complaining about National spending money on Lake Macquarie or Macquarie field, I note that Oakshott made an announcement this week, maybe you can start complaining about that too,

  2. Eddie Ward, see the below comments re Smithfield, at Tallyroom they were talking about this being a seat that ALP were worried about back on the 3rd March at that date I checked the odds, and the Liberals I think was $3.70. they are down to $1.90 now. Which I find extremely interesting …. that might just make me sad

  3. Oakeshott, a lot of these things were named by other people FOR Lachlan. He had a similar management structure toi News Limited, hence Rupert’s boy’s name.

    My favourite story though is Caley. the unrecognised explorer, who hated Macquarie for not letting him cross the Blue Mountains first (which the Frenchman Barrallker had in 1802 anyway, but that’s another story), so he named a particularly virulent stinging leech found in the Grose Valley after Macquarie. The governor, unaware of the priapic qualities of this beast, graciously acceded to this. Banks, in London, got the joke.

  4. What on earth has gone wrong for Labor in Smithfield?
    Perhaps Dovif or someone from the local area can enlighten me, because I’m sure that O’Farrell in his wildest dreams never thought he’d win a seat like this one.

  5. Just had a look at Sportsbet odds for every seat!
    Hasn’t there been talk of the Liberals winning Macquarie Fields, yet Andrew McDonald is comfortably ahead, if you believe the odds makers.

  6. Dovif, I want something more than the circle jerks at Tallyroom before I take you seriously. I talk to people. Have worked around this steaming bucket of sith for over twenty five years. You might chuckle at my posts, but if you jerk us all around here you will need a new pseudonym before any post of yours is anything but scoffed at by even the most credulous bludger. Until you show proof of your wild and crazy claims I can only consider you in the same category of human who wears an alfoil hat to protect themselves from government rays and flouride poisoning, only without the utility of inspiring an appreciation of diversity.

  7. dovif said:

    “I would suggest the rogue are the Green votes reporting of 16%”

    Since the 2007 election Newspoll has averaged about 14% for the Greens in NSW. 11% is the equal lowest over that period. The highest is 17%, reached 3 times. More recently the average is 15% over the last year. 16% is within range of those averages (as is 11%, but only just).

  8. I am not complaining about the Nats spending a large amount of money on their campaign here – I just don’t understand why they are doing it when their polls have them so far in front. It reminds me of the first election RO stood as an independent – the same big spend, the same dirty tricks and smears, the same claims that he was history and the same cries of “traitor” – of course he got more than 70% of the pv. This was because the Nats were and I suspect may still be on the nose for the reasons that RO left. This will be close but the Nats candidate is not inspiring and as the push-poll on the last thread showed that may be the difference.

    There is a chasm between campaign spending by a party and a local member achieving abd announcing a win for the electorate – I am not sure what you are implying but I suspect the announcement about the hospital may have had an effect on the polling you are privy to.

    Lake Macquarie is just south of Newcastle
    Port Macquarie is half way between Sydney and Brisbane
    Macquarie Fields is in the Western Suburbs of Sydney
    and there used to be a seat of Lachlan in the Central West

  9. evan14, how DARE YOU slander the great name of Ninos Khoshaba! Ninos will win Smithfield even if another candidate gets more votes. If the election goes badly for Ninos he will appeal the result to the Administrative Committee of the NSW ALP, who will overturn the result. This has worked before. Admittedly this was only for a preselection, but I am sure the good Mr Obeid, being a government man and all, will be able to sort out any misunderstandings the returning officer may have about the result in Smithfield. Don’t worry, we do this sort of thing in the ALP all the time. I’m sure people will understand. If people vote for another candidate it will because they have made a mistake.

  10. Oakeshott, why would anyone – apart from your significant love interest – want to treat a priapism? People pay good money to be thus afflicted. Present company excepted of course.

    ‘I think we can safely dismiss dovif as a troll of the poorest calibre.

  11. Banks was quite mad. Cook refused to have him on any voyage after 1770. Do you know he took a brass band and twelve greyhounds with him to Botany Bay?

  12. Gusface,

    I thought that would be a matter for the courts to decide. Unfortunately the Supreme Court of NSW declared Kate Wentworth a vexatious litigant and the matter has never been tested at law. Well, not while the court was sitting, so to speak.

    Mind you, after sixteen years of buggery the populace of NSW seems to be holding up rather well.

    You know you’re in a Sydney-centric conversation when, after midnight, the conversation turns to buggery.

  13. eddieward

    I have no affiliate with any party, my background is conservative, but I will/had vote ALP on occasions. I have friends who are members in the ALP and I gets local info.

    Most of what I posted came from the Tally room except for the Federal seat of Barton and Banks. I am pretty sure about Rockdale, Kogarah and Oakley, the only seat the ALP is remotely seen is Kogarah

    All I am saying is that in my opinion for the last 3 weeks that I have been following the Tallyroom, the news that are coming out of that site has led the movement in the betting markets. Which I finds interesting

    Yes, there is a chance DB is the owner of Sportsbet. and he knows that Basseling will win Port Mac easily, but he is getting mugs to take Williams at $1.40 and making big profit.

    I guess I will find out in 2 weeks

  14. i have happened into an interesting conversation. As you are talking buggery I assume this is the NSW thread, as the New South Welsh are about to be buggered no matter who wins.

  15. Did someone say something?

    No, I think it was just the possums on the roof. How quaint those creatures are.

    Anyway, as much as I, like Nick Minchin, view sleep as a vice of the indolent and the weak, I must go and do my 40,000 push ups before I read my latest Ayn Rand essay, and volume 34 from the collected works of WC Wentworth, where he talks about the joys of shooting at free selectors in the New England. A jolly fine read I’m sure.

    Until tomorrow’s festivities I bid you adieu.

    And remember, LANG IS RIGHT!

  16. I think NSW is voting for anarchy. They could give it a try. No central government. Local collective thingys to run local stuff. Have no government for three years until the next election date, just put everything into the deepfreeze. A bit like putting a patient into an induced coma so the body can heal itself without doing themselves further injury.
    How much worse could it be?

  17. Out of my normal territory, and in the Inner West of Sydney for the night.

    I have never, ever in all my life seen so much political advertising. Every voter in Marrickville, will be surely given a corflute of Carmel Tebbutt and the Greens Fiona Byrne with their HTV card – the number of posters was phenomenal.

    On the Balmain side of Parramatta Road, it wasn’t much different except that the Libs have come close to matching Verity Firth and the Greens on the poster numbers. When I lived in the Inner West, 15 – 20 years ago, a Lib poster was never seen. Times are changing.

  18. Puff

    Except for government shenanigans, many New South Welsh would consider that the deep freeze has been operating for the last 4 years already.

  19. clearly you guys deserve a one nation state government this was all very surreal, perhaps gus if Julian ruled you from his european cell it would be good?

    will be a fun last week …

  20. bbp
    What the hell is it with state governments in this country? I cannot think of one state in the last 50 years that has not had a corrupt, inept, morally-bankrupt state government of either or both sides of politics, whose members have acted like little boys left in charge of the sweet shop.

  21. perhaps gus if Julian ruled you from his european cell it would be good?



    thats way below par for you

    sorry you are right i was playing to a NSW par … which frankly is scarry right now

  22. The best thing is that a whole pile of young labor apparatchiks will now actually have to go out and get a job. Hopefully in this strange new environment they might actually learn something about life, people and community, because the last three generations they’ve thrown up have had no idea about any of these things and had to outsource their brains to Treasury, which is like a flash mob of “ley’s be as craven and as stupid as nwe can with other people’s stuff”.

    The whole administration of NSW has been like poorly run muck-up day at an upper north shore private school, and now the people who have actually been to a muck up day at an upper north shore private school will be running things. I think the administration of NSW will resemble a better run muck up day at an upper north shore private school.

  23. Gus let me put it this way. Last election when there was an old labor government against morons who promised to massively slash the public service and provide more public service (the obvious contradiction apparently disguised by very exciting speedo bathers) the good voters of NSW saw the light. It wasn’t a difficult light to see, it was a blinding ‘omg of course’ type light, but the NSW voters saw it and dutifully returned a tired old labor government with many cumulative faults … but never the less still substantially better than the bizarre alternative.

    This time the leopard doesn’t seem to be boasting in quite the same stupid way about its spots, but frankly the NSW voters are grumbling about poor public transport, poor public service, poor infrastructure … ground control to major tom … the liberals hate all these things, they shut them down, they sell them off, they sack them in large large numbers, they slash infrastructure spending … but yet some how public transport in NSW will be improved by a lib govt shutting it down, the public service will be improved by having 20 – 50% of them all sacked, infrastructure will bloom with negative investment … most of this is Howard’s fault got almost nothing to do with state govt at all ….. ground control to major tom … your circuits dead there’s something wrong … can you hear me major tom ………. here am i sitting in a …

  24. [I think the administration of NSW will resemble a better run muck up day at an upper north shore private school.]

    I was on the south coast

    we only held up traffic


    went to a killara muck up day

    they didnt know how to partee

    city types are so yesterday

  25. Jasmine, read back through the posts and learn. I know it’s tiresome, but hey, that’s how we get this crazy thing called knowledge. If you live in NSW you may find this knowledge thing useful. One of the responses that have been suggested by some posters has been that we should all sigh volubly and give a hopeless shrug and equivalent epithet. Others suggest we shoulkd eat our young, and other responses lie between these two very interesting positions. Myself, I find the constant flow of constructive ideas rather exhilerating, fon’t youy?

    And you will also learn about Kate Wentworth’s adventures on the high seas. It really is a first rate read.

  26. Jasmine, that light was an oncoming B-Double semi trailer. That’s why it was obvious to see. It doesn’t mean it was necessarily good.

  27. sweet sweet eddie, I have been trying to learn, dovif has for months been foaming at the mouth about corruption, but pressed for details he is well more than a little vague. I’m not entirely silly. I know labor is old and tired and has had more leaders than a free for all orgy has willing sex partners but but but that doesn’t make dovif read as a sensible independent or intelligent analyst of NSW politics.

  28. dovif was outed tonight as a poor troll of the lowest calibre. He is, as the Bard says, “sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Pay it no heed.

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