Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW

No polling respite whatsoever for Labor in New South Wales, with an Essential Research survey of 900 respondents conducted over the past three weeks among the worst the government has ever suffered: the Coalition primary vote on a possibly unprecedented 54 per cent against 24 per cent for Labor, with the two-party result at 65-35. The Greens vote is 12 per cent, similar to the 11 per cent from Newspoll last week, but whereas that represented a six point fall in Newspoll the Essential result is that same as their previous poll conducted in late January and early February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

209 comments on “Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. More evidence that the last Newspoll was a bit dodgy on The Greens primary. Will Newspoll be putting out a new poll next week?

  2. warning- partisan comment

    may i just say KK is one hell of a campaigner

    i’d definitely want her next to me in the trench

    fatty would take up too much room

    🙂

    ps ABC debate tonite

  4. Gus

    I agree and so do many others. She knows what’s coming and yet gets up everyday to carry the argument for a party which has imploded on itself.

    She is one gutsy sheila!

  5. mtbw

    funny things elections and polls

    why back in07 i was confident of 100 seats- the polls said so

    anyways

    if morris minor or nathan the tank were in charge- definite wipeout

    but kk, as tracked by me (based on pb’s tips) has gone from 16 to 25 min seats

    BUT

    the real issue of “presidential style” has largely been off the radar, a few peeps that were waverers are now back firmly and even advocates

    she is worth her weight in electoral gold

  6. Geez, gusface, you could at least wait until *after* the election before pulling out the inevitable “Laobr did way better than expected, this is a poor result for the Libs” spin.

  7. mdm

    ????

    i am calling it as I see it

    fatty is a joke- no real substance and a lot of mumbling and umms and errs (nts- check out if he and abbott share the same speech peep)

    KK is forceful deliberate and informed

    you obviously missed my ref to morris minor and nathan the tank.

    as you were

  8. Well yes, but you’ve also said Labor are storming back and will still win it, too.

    So I just hope for your sake you’re taking the piss all along.

  10. You have to hand it to the ALP; they’re playing it as best as they can. It’s a bit like when the head gasket goes on the second car. Get the f*cker to a mechanic for as cheap as possible is the rule of the day. Then you have to make the decision whether or not to get the head machined , knowing the car will never run as well again, or cut your losses and put it on eBay (“Yeah mate, can you get to a servo at Marulan? I can meet you there.”)

    It’s about as good as they’ve got to leave people with the perception that, hell, O’Farrell is going to win like Kingston Town did over 2400 meters, so let’s just vote Labor anyway.

    It’s the dominant meme of everything they are doing. I think a lot of the Mordor like polling that’s doing the rounds is designed to effect just that outcome. I KNOW these people. If Luke Foley wasn’t running electoral campaigns he’d be regional manager for a mobile phone sales company. Can’t you just see them doing the script at Light’n’Sound in the Wagga Mall. “We can get you UNLIMITED numbers of these Nokias, buddy, and they will just walk off the shelves. You’re going to rake good coin on the accessory packages, I can put you on to the Apple guy”. The ‘Apple guy’ turns out to be AFL player agent’s ex-girlfriend, who went to a ‘sales conference’ at Byron last August.

    People who think the name Luke Foley is jogging something in their ecstasy jangled synapses are right. Luke was ‘correspondent’ for JJJ’s coverage of the Australian cricket team’s tour of the Caribbean in 1999. The Lunching Council must be something of a comedown after he watched Steve Waugh peel off a double century against the Windies from a floating banana chair at square leg in Antigua. Every daiquiri since must have tasted a bit pallid. He’d need this election to keep his heart beating. A good man in a crisis, but not necessarily a good man.

    There’s a good animal fable about that which I will tell you after we have a few drinks.

    Nice to see Sydney Water has been enhanced. While the citizens of NSW have had about as much enhancement as one person can stand and still live, Eric is pressing on regardless, even though his name is cleverly obscured on the ALP HTV. We can only hope that the REAL Eric Roozendaal is bound and gagged in a room in Macquarie University somewhere and all this time the forces of evil have been using a robotic double of this nice little Jewish boy to wreak mayhem on an 120 year old institution.

    Christ, the only thing worse than the Chicago-school wingnuts running the NSW Treasury now would be if we gave it to Foley’s Children of Albo cult. There’s a part of me that feels warm and relaxed when I think of them all f*cking off to Guyana and drinking Kool-Aid for Albo.

    Seriously, the best thing the old NCCer’s have going for them is the absolute morality and policy free vacuum that is the – sorry I have to pause and laugh here for a bit – Hard Left, sorry again, of the NSW ALP. Which appears to consist of about three-score inner west yuppies that have never done a days work in their lives. I’m sure as individuals they are all wonderful people whose probity is above question but, like the TWU and NUW losers out Penrith way, you wouldn’t leave them alone in a room with a toaster and a metal knife.

    It says something that there are people so dedicated to a cause that the sum of the whole is less than it’s constituent parts. Think Telstra, but without the utility oir sense of customer service.

    You want to know what b*stards these losers really are, ask Andrew Scott, Phil Howell, Ed Mason, Liz Higgins or Matt Hoysted (if they’re still alive or you can find them). They were f*cking right about these bludgers in 1986 to 89 and everything that has transpired in NSW and Australian politics ever since has vindicated them. You’d shoot them, but it’s illegal.

    Alright, the last bit is a bit strong, but at least you’d expect them to have the self reflection to realize that they are the problem, not the solution. Exhibit A: Ian MacDonald. Exhibit B: Frank Walker. Do I really need to drag Bob Debus into this?

    I got told to have a big cup of shut the f*ck up about The Ferg today, so that’s on the money. And, if you’re reading this, when you leave messages on my phone, I’m not ignoring you, I work shiftwork. And don’t think that I’m not going to make something that’s been transmitted on a network that was paid for by my father’s generation and my grandfather’s generation a public document. And have some Nazi while you’re at it.

    The Sydney Water business proves why the Government Gazette is COMPULSORY reading for anyone who calls themselves a journalist. Unfortunately there’s a lot of people who call themselves journalist who have never read a government gazette. Yes, I know it’s largely dull, and yes, there are more exciting things happening at the Martin Place bar (as an aside, Simon Benson must be the only Canberra Press Gallery hack who can keep a finger on the pulse of Canberra from Martin Place, but then again, who’s keeping a pulse on Simon Benson?), but – fer feckin jaysus sake – if you don’t want to die like Brian Robins or Imre Saluzinsky, read the bloody Gazette. The Greens and the ASU obviously do. Between them they broke that.

    Liz Foschia and Mark Tobin from the pollbludgerly unfashionable ABC are the o;ly people who know what they’re talking about. And Antony Green, but for different reasons: the guy doesn’t live in the constant state of present tense that dominates media, he has a sense of history. Why is that galoot from Nine being fed, let alone paid.

    If ever there was an argument for noblesse oblige it is now. How sad is that. And to think there are some who think the Liberal Democratic future exists. If your Super is in equities and you can access it; cash out and buy tinned food. You’d think that having opposable thumbs would have us prepared for an energy shock, but I doubt it has. Meanwhile we have an election for the body that nominally runs electricity, the state government, and look at what we’ve got. The nudist Baanstra running foir the Lunching Council is not as bad as the worst of them that will be elected.

    I’ve also been asked for an update on the biopic on Ninos Khoshaba.

    The role of Joe Tripodi is to be played by Charlie Sheen, who is very excited by the project: “I’ve been doing a bit of method stuff to get inside the mind of Joe Tripodi, “ he told Entertainment Tonight. Sir Laurence Olivier was quoted as saying “My god, why can’t the man just act!”

    And Edde Obied tip for the TAB tomorrow? Sydney Race five, number one.

    Right, veen splented. I legalled this William and got a pro-bono OK, and not just from the ghost of Jeff Shaw. Now I’m going to have a vodka and dish out some facts to match this scurrilous heresay above as I don’t have to get into the truck until 2am Monday morning, I’m up on the bush block and the generator’s humming nicely.

    Go you greenhouse gasses! Go like a good thing!

  11. This IS a horrible poll for the Liberals, they did not even get to 80/20 of the 2PP, showing that O’B is just unelectable

    And primaries of only 54%, that means 46% don’t really want to vote for them

    If I was Gusface, I would put all my lifesavings on KK, Gusface could be a billlionaire after the election

  12. Gus

    I think in hindsight that it was unfortunate for Morris to win the last election. It was a fluke result but the ar**holes in Party took it as a license to do whatever they pleased.

    Up until the very last day of parliament this month those people were still feathering their nests and looking after their mates. They make me want to vomit!

    Morris is a decent man and although we voted differently within the Party – same FEC I like and respect him.

    I hope for the sake of the Party that Rees survives along with Borger who is a decent and nice person and no silver spooner because we need some fresh ideas and “clean” people badly. How sad to have to even say that!

    I think the leadership of the Party should stay with Kristina provided she wants it and I hope you are right with your prediction that things might be better than the polls suggest.

    Either way Kristina certainly has a future in the Party and good for her!

  13. [If I was Gusface, I would put all my lifesavings on KK, Gusface could be a billlionaire after the election]

    I think you mean a MULTI- billionairre

    😉

  18. It is possible for the ALP to win the NSW election, maybe all candidate of the Liberals dies the night before the election or someone in their head office forgot to nominate them.

    It is also possible for Gusface to be a Billionaire

    But I do not think any independants would touch the ALP.

  19. Time for some updates.

    Monaro. swhan is strong. I think if he nhangs on he will walk liken a god through the ALP caucus and dish some serious Coffs recdeycled water on people close to SDam Dastyari that are vmaking a play for the virgin Kristina to make something of a comeback after March 23. See comment above.

    Keep Kristiona is their fallback if Robbo lopses Blacktown, but Robboi won’t lose Balcktown. Sure, he will be run close, but so was Barry Unbsworth oin the Rockdale by-election. Fifty percent plus one is a majority, mso suck it up Barry. The Chrome Dome will lead this rabble.

    I need to reply to the energy c,mments, but I won’t. Sufficeth to say, the kicker is in the first phrase of what I wrote. If it bleeds it leads. Getting consumers to spend $17 billion (and rising as the AUD sinks like Energy Resources Australia Shares – Good one, Martin Ferg, way to pick a winner there!) locks people onto the existing generators. And notice the state, meaning you and I, picks up all the liability by hanging on to ownership of these bloody dinosaurs. So it doesn’t matter if The Greens, China Light and Power, Uncle Bruce or the bloody Red Army Choir build more baseload renewable energy generators if we’ve alreadyt paid to be hooked up to Bayswater, Eraring, Mt Piper, et al.

    Everyone who has electric power should acquaint themselves with Eloise Shepherd. I have no idea who she is as a human being, but she is the operative who sends out the updates for the AER, or the Australian Energy Regulator (aka The F*cker Who Has Got You And Your Family And Everyone You Know By The Testicles, Even If They Haven’t Got Testicles, That’s How Good Government’s Are). They are the people who tell the generator’s what they can and, in rare instances, what they can’t do – in relation to pricing. Get drunk with an actuary, and it will all make sense. As will the reason why the actuary has a solar panel on everything except the children and the family dog.

    You can subscribe to their updates HERE. I suggest you do. It is the only thiog that stands between you and candles. And Bill Gates has not yet invented the Candle Fired Laptop. Hell, even Stephen Conroy hasn’t. But if it exists, don’t worry, Joe de Bruyn will make sure it has a filter to protect the children.

    Even I am self censoring here, but you know the obvious joke if you read the media this week.

  24. dovif, MOE doesn’t transfer between polling series.

    The last Newspoll was a huge -6% for The Greens (17% to 11%). Essential staying steady makes that drop look a bit too big to be correct.

    I’m still wondering if there’s a Newspoll next week.

  25. shellbell, I am a Gentleman, not a lawyer.

    I find that comment actionable and will contact Chris Murphy to see if we can get this up in the ACT Supreme Court.

    /snip/

    Future transcript:

    CHRIS MURPHY: M’lud, it is obvious here that the plaintiff accused my client of being a lawyer…

    GEOFFREY ROBERTSON AND STUART LITTLEMORE (Jointly): Objection!

    JUSTICE SPIEGELMAN: Overruled!

    /snip/

  26. eddie – I offer to settle with my winnings from my bet with Gusface on the election.

    PS please tell me what is going to happen in the seat of Orange

  27. Sam Bauer

    I would suggest the rogue are the Green votes reporting of 16%

    Since all polls are consistently saying the Greens are on 11-12% we can probably say with a degree of confidence that it is their vote, before the normal polling day drop off

  28. eddie @ 10

    I laughed all the way through that post! Brilliant!

    What a breath of fresh air you are to Pollbludger!

  29. The poorly spelt Energy rant is still awaiting moderation, but I repeat my j’Accuse, that Whan will hang on. And if he can hang on here, he can hang on anywhere. Let’s not forget that Seiffert (ALP) hung on to Monaro after the cops found a ‘trainer’ was using his parliamentary office back in the day to store ‘elephabt juice’ for Randwick on Saturdays.

    Keen students of the thirteen a side game will remember the Raider’s first home ground. Yep, same guy.

    People tut-tut about corruption, but psephologists will find it shifts very few votes. Exhibit A: Tammany Hall, New York. If all my predictions regarding Hatton turn out to be so much idle speculation by a barely employable truck driver then you can print that first sentence out, have it laminated, and place it above your spinner’s desk.

    shellbell, what’s a nice girl like you doing in a place like this?

  31. Shellbell at 26

    In the seat of Orange at the 2007 election the Nat had the highest primary vote in every (yes every) booth even including areas such as Glenroi. If there is a swing statewide towards the L/NP it is hard to see anything but a repeat of this.

    It is hard to imagine why John Davis (Ind) imagines that the shellacking he got last time will not be repeated. Sportsbet has Andrew Gee (Nat) at $1.01 which as good as a sure thing.

  37. miss shellbell, sad to say, but the incumbent in Orange would win if he was dead.

    On that proposition I, and the legal obligations of this website, its executors and claimants, offer no value judgement whatsoever.

    I have more information regarding Marrickvilkle. ALP canvassers in Enmore at a stall recently where greeted politely, with no angst, with polite apathy being the dominant sentiment.

    I know the opposite of love isn’t hatred is not anger, but indifference, but no one is asking anyone to love Carmel Tebbutt – like everything else in the Inner West, Albo is already running that – but the sense of carrying Byrne to victory simply isn’t there.

    Tebbut will hang on with a final vote well short of fifty percent as other votes exhaust.

    If this comes true, then Luke Foley and Sam Dastyari owe the crazy trots big time.

  38. eddie

    [If this comes true, then Luke Foley and Sam Dastyari owe the crazy trots big time.]

    That would be very interesting!

    What do you know about East Hills and Oatley?

  40. Fourtycents man at 38,

    Both Lib gains,

    and see my post yesterday about the Taliban in suits selling time share in heaven.

    Anti-ALP vote in the Sydney ‘burbs will go mostly straight to Lib. In the regions it will be more complicated.

  41. shellbell, you should get used to that under a government that will probably feature Charlie Lynn as, at the very least, a parliamentary secretary. The predominant reason being that he will be one of the few coalition MP’s who know where the toilets are in the government areas of Parliament House.

  43. mytywobobsworth at 38

    Re the trots in Marrickville, It won’t be interesting because, like every other fact outside of Mark Waugh’s batting average, it will fly obliquely over Luke Foley’s head, and Sam Dastyari will be too busy wanting you to sign here, here and here.

    Three races I am interested in are the charismatic Noreen Hay in Wollongong (whom I am expecting to hang on, which is a good argument for Gerry Harvey’s business model), news from Wyong would be nice, and Port Macquarie, where dovif’s questionable comments yesterday highlighted how playing to your base can lose you the prize. That’s Phung Ngo 101 stuff as a no-no. Killing and/or maiming the opposition does not endear one to an electorate. Poll Bludger to Oakeshott Country, are you reading me Oakeshott Country? Come in Oakeshott Country.

    As a final observation, has anyone got more teeth than Virginia Judge? She is extraordinary.

  47. eddie @ 44

    None required!

    I am in East Hills and it is being hard fought. I believe Ashton is getting no preferences from anyone.

  48. Two factors in this election that have not seen really investigated anywhere else that I think will play a big part in the final result are:

    1. Pre poll: I expect big numbers here. Hell, it won’t change the result state wide, but in individual seats expect election night prognosii to be overturned. To protect yourself from this hubris acquaint yourself with the only number that means anything in a lower house election – the number of voters as a whole. Someone may have 45 percent of the vote on election night, but that could translate to thirty percent overall. I know it is hard for people addicted to polls to do, but don’t see election night numbers as a whole. If it’s catchable, it can be caught. Actuaries manage risk, they are not fortune tellers.

    2. Exhaust. Which plays out from point one. In som,e seats a lot of primaries will exhaust, and in others primaries will be boosted by preferenvces. I am being a crazy daisy-chain wearing optimist here, but I think there will be a large ignoring of HTV’s, and preferences will leak like great uncle Cyril at the Christmas barbeque.

  49. New South Wales is going to be like Victoria in 1992. This will be an absolute landslide for the Coalition. It will take two terms or perhaps three for Labor to considered electable again. And someone thinks minority government this shows why the Labor party is losing members arrogance and a willing ness to take the electorate for granted. I hope New South Wales people are preparing themselves for cutbacks to services and privatisations and land sales because it is about to happen. In addition the environment will get absolutely nothing from a Lib government. And also false promises, in Victoria the government here made plenty and slowly is going back on them. Simply conservative governments cannot be trusted.

  50. Mytwobobs, watch prepoll in East Hills, if numbers are big, the AA meeting guy is in trouble, if it’s light, spark up a cheroot, put the feet up and look down your nose at those poor bludgers in Miranda.

    You know the state’s going to the pack when a referee is getting elected. I may have voted for Greg Macallum, but Garry Annersley is beyond the pale. What’s next? Bill Harrigan?

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