Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW

No polling respite whatsoever for Labor in New South Wales, with an Essential Research survey of 900 respondents conducted over the past three weeks among the worst the government has ever suffered: the Coalition primary vote on a possibly unprecedented 54 per cent against 24 per cent for Labor, with the two-party result at 65-35. The Greens vote is 12 per cent, similar to the 11 per cent from Newspoll last week, but whereas that represented a six point fall in Newspoll the Essential result is that same as their previous poll conducted in late January and early February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

209 comments on “Essential Research: 65-35 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. What would a Samoan let alone an actuary be doing in PMcQ?
    When you arrive by plane the hostess says please re-set your watch to 1965.

  3. Hey, the actuary is at Rossglen, He will kill me for revealing that. It’s a well kept secret. The Samoan is married to my sister but, don’t worry. as Dad pointed out at the wedding, all the male offspring will be eligible for Wallabies selection.

    He’s a Pirate Oakeshott, you will understand what that means.

  4. [And not just because my comment was a cheap and unworthy shot at someone who is, at the very least, getting off their arse and having a go which – as gusface taught me today – is at the very heart of what we want a vibrant and functioning politic to be.]

    i am suitably humbled

    😉

  5. People that wish to understand what NSW will look like after next Saturday may wish to look up “Government Relations Australia” on the search engine of their choice *nods at steve*

    Anyone lurking with a report on the candidates forum in Katoomba?

  6. OC

    Sorry to upset you, but currently National party polling is showing it is not close.

    National party polling showing one candidate over 40% and 1 under 30%. I think your polling was from very early in the election, where sportingbet had Bessling at 1.85 and before the last 3 polls shoes his collapse. ALP polling seem to back this up, althrough they are spending nothing on the seat

    We will see in a week

    Althrough I have also heard National party polling showing Oakshott coming 3rd in primary in Lynn behind the ALP, which I find hard to believe

    we will see in a week

  7. Christ gusface, you may not have the slightest clue about what drives this crazy beast called politics, but no one can safely accuse you of not being a damnably fine human being

  9. Re Oakley

    I live near there and Greene is not campaigning, all the action is in Kogarah in the southm where Cherie Burton is trying to hold on

    Greene has hardly been seen in the area, his poster are Green and does not have the ALP logo, He is reported to have said to ALP contact that it look bleek

  10. I always knew it! You do work for the conservatives Dovif! – how else would you know those numbers? If you think that the ALP could outpoll RO in Lyne you are seriously deluded.

    If I am not mistaken the Pirates were ROs old team

    I can understand an actuary living in the hills above Rossglen

  12. Wise words dovif, but it begs the question: what is your source for the National Party polling? Because I spoke to someone on George Souris’ campaign today and they where adamant that the state party had not commissioned any polling, and where relying on Lib seat by seat polling for their numbers, and even they were small samples?

    Work with me here dovif. Is this Phillip Street polling at Port Mac?

  14. [I always knew it! You do work for the conservatives Dovif! – how else would you know those numbers? If you think that the ALP could outpoll RO in Lyne you are seriously deluded.]

    This may not be the best time to mention that the internal polling from DB’s sources actually has Oakeshott coming 4th behind the Greens…

  15. Dovif are you implying that the betting market has been corrupted by the leaking of inside information? Isn’t that illegal (it’s no good using a false name you know – as various NRL identities have found out)

  16. No I heard he was 6th behind the Christians and Fishing party – in fact the only person voting for him is himself.

  19. Conflicting reports about Besseling’s prospects aside, do everybody’s sources agree that Peter Draper is cactus?

  20. Cherie Burton is as gone as the wind. Hurstville Public School saw that. She was appalling. Tried to bully the P&C at first, realised her mistake and then…too late she cried!

    That P&C dude iis seriously switched on. If he had of thought about it he would have been a serious independent contender on a public education platform alone.

  21. I just re-read your post Dovif and I realise its value – you are saying that the ALP is polling in PMcQ! A worthwhile seat poll costs about $20K – the ALP does not spend that on campaigns on the entire North Coast.

  23. [BTW Who is DB?]

    An apparently well-connected commenter on Peter Brent and Ben Raue’s blogs. He’s certainly conservative but seems like a straight-shooter and I don’t think he’d be blowing smoke about this kind of thing. But I guess his sources could be another matter.

  27. Oalkeshott, regarding the betting info, no it isn’t il;legal. Otherwise I’d be posting from somewhere a bit more secure than this bush shack. Still, if the bookies stick their necks out…

  28. [A worthwhile seat poll costs about $20K – the ALP does not spend that on campaigns on the entire North Coast.]

    OC – you can say that again. Dovif is talking through his hat.

  29. Draper is swinging in the wind. The locals are not even enjoying the lynching. All effort is being thrown behind Tim Duddy in Upper Hunter, who is scaring the bejeesus out of the Souris people.

  32. OC

    Can you just go over to Tally Room site
    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/

    There is guy call who claim to have ALP polling information and he agrees with DB, who claims to have Liberal party voting

    If u think Basseling is 50/50, you should take the $2.1 being offered, put your money where you mouth is, like me.

    There are a lot more information from the site too, they think the Liberals are in front in Smithfield 52-48,

    ‘They thinks the swing in Southern sydney (banks, Barton) will be 25%

    They thinks Liberals won’t go to preference in Rockdale

    They thinks current polling is good for Reese, who has made a comeback

    They thinks Liberals are on 37% in Balmain Greens 29% and ALP 26%

    You can believe it if you want, you can disregard it if you want

  36. As well as PmcQ I will be watching Wallsend on 26/3 – When it has existed (including when it was Kurri Kurri) has been Labor since 1893 but on 15% – you never know.

    I went to the section of Tallyroom on PmcQ – I saw DB talking about rolling nat polling and your usual speil but nothing about ALP polling – is there another area?
    I have never bet on elections – the market in single seats is usually set by punters whose heart overrules their brains.

  37. dovif, Ben Raue’s site is totally compromised and everyone knows that. Norman Bates could have a flame war with himself on Tallyroom and no one would be any the wiser. I’d take ANYTHING on there with one of my truckloads of salt, and I’d throw in my mate Gerry’s B-Double as well.

    You still haven’t, to my knowledge, answered my principle question, which is – if the Nats are denying that they are doing any seat by seat polling, is this NSW Liberal Party polling you are quoting in Port Mac?

    Also, Lib RFS mate in Bullaburra openly laughed when I quoted your sage on 43-47 percent figure from a previous thread when I spoke to him this afternoon. He said the Libs did seat polling prior to Christmas and that showed the party (without candidate) on 34 – which admittedly is pretty impressive.

    Now, you’re not just jumping on here and making stuff up are you? Because if you are, pretty soon we’re gonna ask for scanned hard copies of this stuff posted anonymously somewhere on the intertubes, or just consider you to be a rather tiiresome blatherskite.

    Work with us here dovif. Show us some proof apart from the wonderfully naive Greens site you keep citing.

  38. OC

    Read post form Crazymongrose adn MorgieB, they say they have, and not everything is in Port Mac, a lot of it is in a Newcastle seat, where they talk a lot and some of the blog posts

  41. crazedmongoose is NOT a well connected ALP person. It is just a person. And I will leave a trained psychologist to to decide what sort of person

  42. Would it be a bad thing if the odious Noreen Hay got booted out of parliament?
    It’d be better for Labor’s future if Ryan Park and not Ms Hay got across the line.

  43. eddieward

    Actually I quite like Ben Raue’s site, he does not attack people who does not support the Greens and unlike here, there is mature discussion about politics, rather then people telling each other you are wrong just because other people have a different point of view.

    As for its value, I have been looking at their posts verses sportsbet etc, and the polling seems to move in line with their posts, except Balmain has not move much to the Liberals

  46. For example, DB and other’s mail has shown Smithfield to be going to the Liberals for 2 weeks and the market has tighten

    Pollster
    Posted March 18, 2011 at 10:30 PM
    Further to my earlier comments re odds:

    Smithfield is now $1.7 for lab $1.95 for lib. huge swing since the 14th.
    .

  47. [and unlike here, there is mature discussion about politics, rather then people telling each other you are wrong just because other people have a different point of view.]

    you jest dovif

    surely?

  48. Are you confusing Port Macquarie with Lake Macquarie or Macquarie Fields ( One thing I like about Lachlan is that he wasn’t afraid to name things after himself)

    I was just reading Tallyroom and DB – its sort of pollbludger anti-matter – you must feel quite comfortable there

  49. dovif, cut the crap, what’s with this polling you’re dribbling about? Pretty soon we’re just going to ignore you if you think you can play a forum like this for the same bunch of tossbags that think Tallyroom is anything other than a perverse collection of municipal maps. This is the real world matey. You’re not in Kansas now Dorothy.

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