Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Fairfax’s monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46. One way to look at this is that there has been no change since a month ago, and this is the line newspapers who commission these polls are generally required to run. However, it was clear enough at the time that the previous result was an outlier, so this poll adds to a general impression of the Coalition lead having blown out from about 51-49 to 54-46. Notably, Nielsen’s two-party result is the same as last week’s Newspoll. Other results since the carbon tax announcement have been a 56-44 Morgan phone poll result, which came from a small sample, and the progress of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average from 49-51 to 52-48 to 53-47, from which the hair-splitters among us ascertained weekly results of 55-45 in week one and 51-49 in week two (UPDATE: Actually, Dendrite in comments nicely demonstrates why this need not be so). The latter result always looked like an anomaly, and since it will make up half of tomorrow’s published Essential result there will be cause to regard whatever it is as slightly flattering to Labor. We also had 50-50 from Morgan’s face-to-face, but this was also in keeping with the overall trend when you factor in its consistent bias to Labor.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments that Nielsen more or less replicates Newspoll in having Kevin Rudd favoured over Julia Gillard by 39 per cent to 34 per cent. One point of agreement to emerge from this morning’s critically acclaimed episode of Insiders was that head-to-head polls of this kind are not to be trusted, as they invite non-supporters of the party to make mischief – which could equally apply to Tony Abbott’s shaky ratings against Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey. Even so, Morgan records Gillard’s lead over Rudd among Labor voters as shrinking from 37 per cent to 10 per cent over the past three months.

UPDATE 2: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The two-party vote being what it is, the primaries are a little better for Labor than anticipated: the Coalition is on 45 per cent, as in Newspoll, but Labor is on 33 per cent rather than 30 per cent. This looks as much like a 53-47 result as a 54-46. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are substantially better than in Newspoll: approval down five to 47 per cent, disapproval up four 47 per cent. This might be seen as evidence of the bounce leaders traditionally get when before the world stage, which may also have buttressed them a little on voting intention. Whereas the previous Nielsen poll uncovered no evidence of Tony Abbott taking a hit from the Mark Riley death stare and its attendant week of party disunity, this time he is down three on approval to 43 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred prime minister has little changed, with Gillard steady on 51 per cent and Abbott up one to 42 per cent.

UPDATE 3: The latest Essential Research survey joins the 54-46 club, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47 per cent and 10 per cent. The monthly question on personal approval to has Julia Gillard in net negative territory for the first time, her approval down seven points to 41 per cent and disapproval up five to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively steady on 38 per cent and up a point to 47 per cent. Both have similar ratings for “strongly approve” (7 per cent each) and “strongly disapprove” (24 per cent for Gillard and 27 per cent for Abbott), with the latter notably higher than the former. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-31 to 44-33.

Questions on carbon price serve to remind us that wording goes a long way: when asked whether they would support the scheme “if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, which is pretty much the idea (albeit that there is no shortage of devil in the detail), 54 per cent said they would against only 30 per cent who said they wouldn’t. However, to further emphasise how complicated the politics of this gets, 45 per cent agreed action should be delayed “until the US has established an equal or stronger carbon pricing system” against 33 per cent who did not agree. Respondents were again asked if they merely supported the government’s announcement, with 38 per cent saying yes (up three on last week) and 49 per cent said no (up one).

Questions on same-sex marriage and territory rights underscore the surprisingly candid misgivings The Australian expressed last week about democracy. Forty-nine per cent support same-sex marriage against 40 per cent opposed, while 74 per cent failed to recognise that federal ministers should remain capable of overriding territory legislation at their whim (which The Australian regarded as so self-evident it did not trouble itself to explain why). Only 9 per cent were dopey enough to take the contrary view.

OH, AND BY THE WAY: Don’t forget to take advantage of the fabulous Crikey group subscriptions offer detailed in the post below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,604 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. [SAMANTHAMAIDEN | 18 minutes ago
    Wayne Swan has confirmed the government will back an increase to the minimum wage: “We know plenty of Australians are doing it tough”]

  4. Boerwar 5432

    Remember that the city of Az Awihyah just 35 k. from Tripoli.. had held out for 3 weeks and was largely destroyed by Gadaffi..and it an outer suburb of Triipoli..and the people there were as anti-Gadaffi as in Benghazi.

    As to the NFZ…if you look closely at the commernts coming from various sources you will see that it allows the use of air power to destroy artillery and tanks and other things on the ground ..it is being called..a “a no move zone”too at the UN…

    Anyhow..we will soon see .!!.The airbases in Sicily are ready and the French and Danes are ready to start..as is Canada.
    The Danish P’Ment passed a resolution calling for the Danish airforce to start operations to free Libya immediately..
    Egypt by the way is now rushing military supplies to Benghzi’s defenders overland,through Tobruk
    Once Gqadaffi’s air force is gone his army may collapse and the Provisional Govt in Benghazi says it will move to Tripoli
    The US has just recognized that govt. by inviting them to set up an Embassy in Washington…which they are doing now…and of course they have one in Paris too.
    When will Rudd move on this?
    He has been right on the ball on this one !

  5. Oh no! Not a modest rise in minimum wages. We’ll all be roooned.

    Didn’t anyone read Gina Rinehart’s seminal economic commentary piece on how Australia doesn’t owe us a living? Paying livable wages is a socialist conspiracy.

    / tongue firmly in cheek.

  9. Just watching the Gaddafi sympathisers celebrating in his press office. Kinda reminded me of the ‘people’s revolution’ here. A small group, playing to the camera in a close-up shot to make it look like there were heaps of them. They looked confused for the most part, parading in waving scrunched up flags, playing to the camera.

    When you got a wider shot, the room was practically empty.

  10. NYT paywall goes live 28 March 2011

    If the NYT paywall fails – if it loses too many of the more than 30 million unique visitors a month and doesn’t attract sufficient subscribers – it is doubtful any other general newspaper will be able to successfully erect a paywall and the ability of newspapers to manage a controlled migration from the physical environment to the virtual will be in severe doubt.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/New-York-Times-NYT-paywall-March-28-pd20110318-F3423?OpenDocument&src=sph

  11. my responses

    @annabelcrabb look forward to analysis of what option are beyond slogans – a debate for ABC to lead perhaps.

    LaurieOakes @annabelcrabb Good piece.

    @LaurieOakes wouldn’t it be something for the media to try to move the debate on beyond hollow slogans and base politics from both sides

  12. @LaurieOakes wouldn’t it be something for the media to try to move the debate on beyond hollow slogans and base politics from both sides

    Well a factual and open debate on CC would be a great place to start. It might, just might get the country working together instead of being at each others throats.

  15. Oakes must be kidding himself right?

    The Australian Media is the reason why politics in this country now panders to ignorant, the selfish and generally mean-spirited. 3 word slogans and base politics = all that gets shown in soundbites.

  17. What’s wrong with Annabel Crabb?

    None of the above excuses the handling of the Libya no-fly zone and the early days of the Japanese nuclear disaster as nothing more than a fresh episode in the Julia versus Kevin soap opera; to the extent that that happened, it was wrong.

    I didn’t write a massive amount about it, but I certainly committed thought-crimes on most days.

    Sorry Kevin.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/18/3167814.htm

    Is she saying sorry for all the made-up, trumped-up, rubbish she’s spewed over the past three years – including shaking the sauce bottle, endless tittle-tattle about Rudd v. Gillard, smarmy schoolgirlish crap about Rudd and Julie Bishop being “an item” (“I’m serious” she said) – or does she only regret getting it wrong about the NFZ and the Japan nuclear disaster in the past 10 days or so?

    And what are we supposed to think about the “professionalism of the ABC now?

    The customer care apologists at the ABC (the ones that have letters of complaint written to them) tell us consistently that we’re wrong and that their journalists’ judgement is impeccable.

    What now?

    Was Crabbe’s judgement impeccable last week or this week? Or both times?

  20. @LaurieOakes wouldn’t it be something for the media to try to move the debate on beyond hollow slogans and base politics from both sides

    Laurie could try putting that fizzy aspirin back in the bottle.

  23. Libya Latest\
    ___________
    Interview with Libyan rebel leaders on what come now\http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3167625.htm

  24. [Thirdly, there’s no denying it: We in the media love a blue.]

    Poor Annabel – she’s just told us that the media hasn’t got beyond 1st year highschool where the boys used to love to sort each other with a ‘blue’.

    Laurie Oakes of course would think it good – it’s defending his toilet cleaner.

    [A sorry Julia might also be called for, but female jealousy being what it is …]

    jenauthor – that’s something to tweet. I can’t understand the absolute bitchiness to JG of these female journos. Their tone of voice to her is woeful.

  25. [Oakes must be kidding himself right?

    The Australian Media is the reason why]

    That tweet was TO Mr Oakes FROM me, not FROM him. Sorry to use capitals but I don’t know how to do italics.

  29. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 6 minutes ago
    Great pic. KRudd campaigning with Carmel Tebbutt in Marrickville. RT @geerob: http://plixi.com/p/84842530

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    Scott Morrison wants the protesting asylum seekers on Christmas Island sanctioned. Says Minister can and should do this]

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 9 minutes ago
    Scott Morrison says ratio of Federal police to Christmas Isl. is ‘pretty high,’ and there’s not that ratio of state police in Cronulla.

  30. mari @ 5469

    That’s the kind of article we used to see from the real journalists, actually listing a few facts. Now we only see those if they criticise Labor. Thanks for the link.

  31. Is she saying sorry for all the made-up, trumped-up, rubbish she’s spewed over the past three years – including shaking the sauce bottle, endless tittle-tattle about Rudd v. Gillard, smarmy schoolgirlish crap about Rudd and Julie Bishop being “an item” (“I’m serious” she said) – or does she only regret getting it wrong about the NFZ and the Japan nuclear disaster in the past 10 days or so?

    And what are we supposed to think about the “professionalism of the ABC now?

    Interesting – crabb’s article is not open for comments.

  33. [No wonder the Libs are running with AS again]

    I hate to be fair but that is not the Libs doing this time. The unrest on C is a very legitimate news story.

  35. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
    The AMA is opposing Medicare Locals. Shadow Health Minister Peter Dutton says its proof the JG negotiated health deal is ‘failing.]

  37. True crabs are decapod crustaceans of the infraorder Brachyura, which typically have a very short projecting “tail” or where the reduced abdomen is entirely hidden under the thorax. Many other animals with similar names – such as hermit crabs, king crabs, porcelain crabs, horseshoe crabs, crab lice and Annabel Crabbes – are not true crabs.

  38. bemused

    Yes, I do. That was, sort of, my point. If he can write the summary, the journos should be able to as well. But they ‘won’t’.

  39. [bemused
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
    Poll on The Age now running 51/49 in support of Garnaut]

    just see what can happen here , not saying it was all or just us. but sending the page to friends they dont have to vote but may be they did.

    very surpirsed i bet the age is to..

  40. Woo Hoo, the Oz published my comment in response to their story ont he military compensation review committee story:

    [Burgey of Sydney Posted at 4:18 PM Today
    Can you tell me how this issue is “splitting the Gillard Government”, when all the report states is there is a difference of opinion on the review committee, none of whose members are a politician of any persuasion, let alone a member of the government? Appalling politicisation of this issue, but standard fare from The Australian.]

  41. Reply to Ms Crabb

    @annabelcrabb let’s guess – next column will be how NFZ and Japan boost Rudd’s chance of return to top job.

  42. I see that two of the biggest human rights villains on the planet – Russia and China – abstained from the ‘Let’s make war on Libya’ resolution.

  49. [After all the intrigue about Kevin being out of control and off the reservation and personally obsessed with establishing a Rudd-shaped no-fly zone over Benghazi, it might now be time to admit the possibility that it was the Foreign Minister who was right all along, and the Prime Minister who lost a little focus.]

    Crabb’s modus operandi: to apologise to Rudd, criticize Gillard.

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