Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Fairfax’s monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46. One way to look at this is that there has been no change since a month ago, and this is the line newspapers who commission these polls are generally required to run. However, it was clear enough at the time that the previous result was an outlier, so this poll adds to a general impression of the Coalition lead having blown out from about 51-49 to 54-46. Notably, Nielsen’s two-party result is the same as last week’s Newspoll. Other results since the carbon tax announcement have been a 56-44 Morgan phone poll result, which came from a small sample, and the progress of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average from 49-51 to 52-48 to 53-47, from which the hair-splitters among us ascertained weekly results of 55-45 in week one and 51-49 in week two (UPDATE: Actually, Dendrite in comments nicely demonstrates why this need not be so). The latter result always looked like an anomaly, and since it will make up half of tomorrow’s published Essential result there will be cause to regard whatever it is as slightly flattering to Labor. We also had 50-50 from Morgan’s face-to-face, but this was also in keeping with the overall trend when you factor in its consistent bias to Labor.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments that Nielsen more or less replicates Newspoll in having Kevin Rudd favoured over Julia Gillard by 39 per cent to 34 per cent. One point of agreement to emerge from this morning’s critically acclaimed episode of Insiders was that head-to-head polls of this kind are not to be trusted, as they invite non-supporters of the party to make mischief – which could equally apply to Tony Abbott’s shaky ratings against Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey. Even so, Morgan records Gillard’s lead over Rudd among Labor voters as shrinking from 37 per cent to 10 per cent over the past three months.

UPDATE 2: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The two-party vote being what it is, the primaries are a little better for Labor than anticipated: the Coalition is on 45 per cent, as in Newspoll, but Labor is on 33 per cent rather than 30 per cent. This looks as much like a 53-47 result as a 54-46. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are substantially better than in Newspoll: approval down five to 47 per cent, disapproval up four 47 per cent. This might be seen as evidence of the bounce leaders traditionally get when before the world stage, which may also have buttressed them a little on voting intention. Whereas the previous Nielsen poll uncovered no evidence of Tony Abbott taking a hit from the Mark Riley death stare and its attendant week of party disunity, this time he is down three on approval to 43 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred prime minister has little changed, with Gillard steady on 51 per cent and Abbott up one to 42 per cent.

UPDATE 3: The latest Essential Research survey joins the 54-46 club, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47 per cent and 10 per cent. The monthly question on personal approval to has Julia Gillard in net negative territory for the first time, her approval down seven points to 41 per cent and disapproval up five to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively steady on 38 per cent and up a point to 47 per cent. Both have similar ratings for “strongly approve” (7 per cent each) and “strongly disapprove” (24 per cent for Gillard and 27 per cent for Abbott), with the latter notably higher than the former. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-31 to 44-33.

Questions on carbon price serve to remind us that wording goes a long way: when asked whether they would support the scheme “if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, which is pretty much the idea (albeit that there is no shortage of devil in the detail), 54 per cent said they would against only 30 per cent who said they wouldn’t. However, to further emphasise how complicated the politics of this gets, 45 per cent agreed action should be delayed “until the US has established an equal or stronger carbon pricing system” against 33 per cent who did not agree. Respondents were again asked if they merely supported the government’s announcement, with 38 per cent saying yes (up three on last week) and 49 per cent said no (up one).

Questions on same-sex marriage and territory rights underscore the surprisingly candid misgivings The Australian expressed last week about democracy. Forty-nine per cent support same-sex marriage against 40 per cent opposed, while 74 per cent failed to recognise that federal ministers should remain capable of overriding territory legislation at their whim (which The Australian regarded as so self-evident it did not trouble itself to explain why). Only 9 per cent were dopey enough to take the contrary view.

OH, AND BY THE WAY: Don’t forget to take advantage of the fabulous Crikey group subscriptions offer detailed in the post below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,604 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 111 of 113
1 110 111 112 113
  1. my say @ 5496

    for any new bludger that come along now

    ends in 54 min.

    Or for any that don’t feel they have voted enough already …

  2. This Yankee uni prof from UQ is an absolute tea-party-ite.

    I’m sure he is gonna tell us the sky is falling any minute.

  3. my say

    With a bit of luck a cruise missile will find its way to Gaddafi’s pad and it will be all over red rover.

    Alas, luck rarely happens in war.

  4. And while evidence exists to support the contention that the Foreign Minister is a deeply, ornately strange human being, it’s certainly fair to say that if ever global circumstances could suit the characteristic oddities of a man whose very favourite thing is to sit up all night phone-stalking the members of the UN Security Council, then these are they. Flannabel Flab

    and this is an apology?

  5. To Sean Parnell of The Oz’s great credit, I emailed him expressing my concern at the disparity between his article and the headline. He agreed with me and has said he will arrange for the headline to be altered to more accurately reflect the contents of the story.

    Poor bloke won’t last long there at this rate!!

  6. [His paper was clear. It supports a price of carbon as the best way of dealing with emissions — not only because it’s a market mechanism, but because it raises revenue that will be used to assist households, support jobs and tackle climate change.

    Professor Garnaut made clear that in considering methods to price carbon, market based mechanisms are clearly superior to those that propose direct measures. He says that: ‘‘Direct measures would not assure least cost abatement, and are therefore likely to lead to a bigger ‘tax’ on households.’’

    This supports the government’s analysis of Abbott’s proposed direct action policy, which will fail to achieve any significant environmental outcome but will cost working families through increased taxes.

    In contrast, the government’s proposed carbon price is the cheapest, fairest and most efficient way to cut pollution.]

    dont you love it when someone actually tells it how it is.

  7. hmmm…. When I look at the history of Crabb’s response to Oakes I read Laurie Oakes’ “good piece” as a response to Uhlmann’s article, not Crabbs.

    [annabelcrabb Annabel Crabb
    Chris Uhlmann reminds us what would have been on the front page, absent Japan: http://tinyurl.com/4ale4j4
    52 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

    LaurieOakes
    LaurieOakes @annabelcrabb Good piece.
    42 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

    Annabel Crabb
    @LaurieOakes Thanks, great man.
    12 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply]

    oops.

  8. [With a bit of luck a cruise missile will find its way to Gaddafi’s pad and it will be all over red rover.

    Alas, luck rarely happens in war.]

    wasnt that what the Americans hoped in iraq,, and who can forget ‘ mission accomplished on a war ship speech

  9. J

    James Allen belongs to the legal industry snouting confraternity. Which is why SkyNews has him talking as if he is an expert on AGW.

    He is not the fault of the US. He was born in Canada.

  10. I rather liked this simple put-down of Abbott in one of the comments on Dreyfus’ piece:

    [The local councils used to pick up your rubbish for a fixed charge from your big bin, then they changed to small bin small charge big bin big charge, and now look and see how many big bins are still around – none. Abbot wants everybody to pay the same …. ie big bin. I’d like a big bin too, but if it saves me dosh, I’ll take the small bin and learn how to make less rubbish. Oh and the small bin pushed recycling into hitherto unknown areas. I’ll pay direct for my waste thanks rather than paying abbot’s one-size-fits-all new big tax.
    colin | melbourne – March 18, 2011, 11:06AM ]

  11. Allen doing snouter-type cynical comments about asylum seekers.

    Union type from WA doing bluster, badly. Idiot just said we are not going to stop boats leaving from Afghanistan. Farqwit. Afghanistan does not have a coast.

    Chris Kenny not being *totally* unreasonable in this episode!!

  12. Julia will be the guest on Sunday’s Australian Agenda with PVO

    I have the impressions that PVO quite likes her.

  13. [Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
    I sympathise deeply with the Libyan people, but I fear we have just stepped into a very large patch of quicksand]

    me to but i am not sure why or how.

  14. [Burgey
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
    To Sean Parnell of The Oz’s great credit,]

    is their a link

  15. [None of the above excuses the handling of the Libya no-fly zone and the early days of the Japanese nuclear disaster as nothing more than a fresh episode in the Julia versus Kevin soap opera; to the extent that that happened, it was wrong.

    I didn’t write a massive amount about it, but I certainly committed thought-crimes on most days.

    Sorry Kevin.]

    That’s now two journos who have ditched the Michelle Grattan led beat-up. Alison Carrabine earlier in the week called it “unfair” (although she then went on to criticise Rudd over Japan) Unfair there too Carrabine as it turns out.

    Gillard has emphatically denied that there was any comment by any of her staff. She went as far as to say that she had asked them and they said they had made no comments. Make no mistake, Grattan has taken a mightly hit over this. She has been exposed as fabricating a story by using bogus quotes. The fact she has not disputed Gillard’s version of events confirms this. The Rudd/Gillard rift story was taken up with glee by the ABC who led bulletins for days running with it.

    I refuse to believe any off the record comments in future. They are meaningless. Name names or shut up journalists; the system you have thrived under is a sham and a poor excuse for shoddy work.

  16. my say
    The main problem is that Gaddafi is totally mad. These are the sorts of folks that won’t mind the palace and the country crashing down around their ears.

  17. hairy nose

    the media will now concentrate on CI. Granted it is not a good situation there. These detainees have behaved badly. But of course, the govt will get all the blame for everything. Forget that these people are unhappy with the necessary delays and decisions as made by the govt. It will all be because of not being able to stop the boats. Boring.

  18. [i missed it last week what did crab say about the fly by ect.]

    Very little. It was as you know a massive beat up claiming Rudd and Gillard were at odds over calls for a no fly zone which they weren’t. However, the beat ups were written by the grown ups and Crabb did very little.

    That’s why the “apology” is so clearly an excuse to snipe at Gillard and keep the “at odds” beat up alive.

  19. [odds over calls for a no fly zone which they weren’t. However, the beat ups were written by the grown ups and Crabb did very little.

    That’s why the “apology” is so clearly an excuse to snipe at Gillard and keep the “at odds” beat up alive.]

    O is that all, actully i remember she worked in London it must of been exciting , why did she come back i wonder.

  20. [The AMA is opposing Medicare Locals. Shadow Health Minister Peter Dutton says its proof the JG negotiated health deal is ‘failing.]

    Yep – the AMA doesn’t like the thought of all those Medicare Locals providing a decent service to our communities. Can’t have that happening without the AMA having most of the say, can we!

  21. [Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:01 pm | Permalink
    my say
    The main problem is that Gaddafi is totally mad. These are the sorts of folks that won’t mind the palace and the country crashing down around their ears.]

    he would be aware of the UN resolutiion wouldnt he. what would his neighbours in the arab kingdoms think do you think

  22. my say @ 5528

    you can only vote once any way from here just tried it it goes to the result page.

    Not if you clear cookies.

  23. despite Crabby’s pathetic excuse for an apology re Rudd. It confirms for me that Rudd is best suited to this position of FM. It is a perfect fit for him.

  24. [its proof the JG negotiated health deal is ‘failing.

    Yep – the AMA doesn’t like the thought of all those Medicare Locals providing a decent service to our communities. Can’t have that happening without the AMA having most of the say, can we!]

    when i enquired i was told there will be Bulk billing for card holders the rest is up to the dr. in the practice but will be strongly suggested more bulk billing where possible.

  25. so that why some dr. will not like it.
    out side the rooms stand big bmw, mercedes station wagons and the like
    i am not saying after all those years of study ect they dont deserve to be paid well
    but gee it s not a good look is it.

  26. [the media will now concentrate on CI. Granted it is not a good situation there. These detainees have behaved badly. But of course, the govt will get all the blame for everything. Forget that these people are unhappy with the necessary delays and decisions as made by the govt. It will all be because of not being able to stop the boats. Boring.]

    Vic, I’m closer to BB on this issue. Nothing justifies this behaviour. The goodwill that I believe existed after the awful boat tragedy has evaporated. The majority of asylum seekers not involved in the rioting must feel so dejected as they are being vilified along with the perpetrators. Bowen also must be pulling his hair out. The instigators must be found and punished.

  27. [despite Crabby’s pathetic excuse for an apology re Rudd. It confirms for me that Rudd is best suited to this position of FM. It is a perfect fit for him..

    yes i think he is a far better FM, than Pm i dont think he likes staying behind a desk to much.

  28. A comment strike back on Chris Uhlmann article that may have been the reason, soon afterwards, why the “Comments for this story are closed, but you can still have your say” signal came up. (But spoiled slightly by “unsightful” methinks)

    “SickofMediaDistortion:
    18 Mar 2011 2:57:22pm
    Uhlman, I think part of the problem might be the way the media deals with this. (Actually, the media is reponsible for a large number of current public policy problems, but that’s a separate issue). You talk about assylum seeker policy as though some plan B should be possible. I think that is unreasonable. Large numbers of people wish to come to Australia: fact. Some of them are prepared to risk their lives at sea, such is their desperation: fact. Australia cannot accept them until we determine that they are refugees, and thay have to be housed somewhere while that happens: fact. All Australian governments have grappled with this problem, no solution is easy, and the role of the media is unhelpful, unconstructive and damaging. This article is unsightful. I am tired of media criticism of public policy. It is rarely balanced or considered, and erodes confidence in public policy processes. I’ve got an idea for a DRUM piece, Chris: what is your idea for a solution to this problem?”

  29. [owen also must be pulling his hair out. The instigators must be found and punished.]

    i hope they explain to them it does their cause no good at all.

  30. [ latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Whoops, sorry Kev, writes @annabelcrabb http://bit.ly/hq4sR3 (#kevinischuck)
    59 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?

    @SpaceKidette
    Space Kidette
    @latikambourke @annabelcrabb Congratulations on manning up enough for an apology but why did Kevin being right make Julia wrong?
    26 seconds ago via web Favorite Reply Delete
    ]

  31. [It is rarely balanced or considered, and erodes confidence in public policy processes. I’ve got an idea for a DRUM piece, Chris: what is your idea for a solution to this problem?”]

    we should put this or similar on the 7.30 report, will tonight be local or aust wide.

    of course they never have an opinion off air they cannot talk to each other.
    but i notice they havent been this week have they

  32. [page.

    [Not if you clear cookies.]

    call me dumb i still havent worked out what american buscuits have to do with computers.

  33. Hello from bellthorpe,

    Was told by by a bloke and his wife on a farm near murgon today that JG. is definatley knocked up and will announce after the royal wedding that she is stepping down and K.Rudd will return as P.M. Seems it was planned a few months ago, and she has been taking fertility drugs, and her and Tim have been going at it like rabbits and that is the reason she is looking so shagged (pun Intended) lately.

    So there you go Ruddy will return because Julia has decided she really wants kids anyhow.

  34. My Say,

    Every time computers link up with each other the pass a piece of information between each other identifying each other with relevant bits of info. They are called cookies.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 111 of 113
1 110 111 112 113