Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Fairfax’s monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46. One way to look at this is that there has been no change since a month ago, and this is the line newspapers who commission these polls are generally required to run. However, it was clear enough at the time that the previous result was an outlier, so this poll adds to a general impression of the Coalition lead having blown out from about 51-49 to 54-46. Notably, Nielsen’s two-party result is the same as last week’s Newspoll. Other results since the carbon tax announcement have been a 56-44 Morgan phone poll result, which came from a small sample, and the progress of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average from 49-51 to 52-48 to 53-47, from which the hair-splitters among us ascertained weekly results of 55-45 in week one and 51-49 in week two (UPDATE: Actually, Dendrite in comments nicely demonstrates why this need not be so). The latter result always looked like an anomaly, and since it will make up half of tomorrow’s published Essential result there will be cause to regard whatever it is as slightly flattering to Labor. We also had 50-50 from Morgan’s face-to-face, but this was also in keeping with the overall trend when you factor in its consistent bias to Labor.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments that Nielsen more or less replicates Newspoll in having Kevin Rudd favoured over Julia Gillard by 39 per cent to 34 per cent. One point of agreement to emerge from this morning’s critically acclaimed episode of Insiders was that head-to-head polls of this kind are not to be trusted, as they invite non-supporters of the party to make mischief – which could equally apply to Tony Abbott’s shaky ratings against Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey. Even so, Morgan records Gillard’s lead over Rudd among Labor voters as shrinking from 37 per cent to 10 per cent over the past three months.

UPDATE 2: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The two-party vote being what it is, the primaries are a little better for Labor than anticipated: the Coalition is on 45 per cent, as in Newspoll, but Labor is on 33 per cent rather than 30 per cent. This looks as much like a 53-47 result as a 54-46. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are substantially better than in Newspoll: approval down five to 47 per cent, disapproval up four 47 per cent. This might be seen as evidence of the bounce leaders traditionally get when before the world stage, which may also have buttressed them a little on voting intention. Whereas the previous Nielsen poll uncovered no evidence of Tony Abbott taking a hit from the Mark Riley death stare and its attendant week of party disunity, this time he is down three on approval to 43 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred prime minister has little changed, with Gillard steady on 51 per cent and Abbott up one to 42 per cent.

UPDATE 3: The latest Essential Research survey joins the 54-46 club, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47 per cent and 10 per cent. The monthly question on personal approval to has Julia Gillard in net negative territory for the first time, her approval down seven points to 41 per cent and disapproval up five to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively steady on 38 per cent and up a point to 47 per cent. Both have similar ratings for “strongly approve” (7 per cent each) and “strongly disapprove” (24 per cent for Gillard and 27 per cent for Abbott), with the latter notably higher than the former. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-31 to 44-33.

Questions on carbon price serve to remind us that wording goes a long way: when asked whether they would support the scheme “if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, which is pretty much the idea (albeit that there is no shortage of devil in the detail), 54 per cent said they would against only 30 per cent who said they wouldn’t. However, to further emphasise how complicated the politics of this gets, 45 per cent agreed action should be delayed “until the US has established an equal or stronger carbon pricing system” against 33 per cent who did not agree. Respondents were again asked if they merely supported the government’s announcement, with 38 per cent saying yes (up three on last week) and 49 per cent said no (up one).

Questions on same-sex marriage and territory rights underscore the surprisingly candid misgivings The Australian expressed last week about democracy. Forty-nine per cent support same-sex marriage against 40 per cent opposed, while 74 per cent failed to recognise that federal ministers should remain capable of overriding territory legislation at their whim (which The Australian regarded as so self-evident it did not trouble itself to explain why). Only 9 per cent were dopey enough to take the contrary view.

OH, AND BY THE WAY: Don’t forget to take advantage of the fabulous Crikey group subscriptions offer detailed in the post below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,604 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 109 of 113
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  1. BH
    Yes, bringing all boat arrivals on shore for processing is what we must do. Continuing this discrimination between air and sea arrivals as a sop to ignorant xenophobis is inconscionable.

  2. [Jesus would have voted 1 Green and 2 Labor.]

    Lynchpin – He sure as heck would be telling Pell to put Abbott last on the voting slip.

  4. Just saw Boerwar and BBs comments on Xmas island on the previous page and agree. I am fully in favor of us sticking to our treaty obligations for treatment of asylum seekers. However the fact is some will be legitimately refused entry. I think is reasonable for us to make that determination.

    There was a classic case of a young Sri Lankan man on the Oceanic Viking. He had already been granted residency in Canada but then expelled for being in a drug gang that prided itself on having AK47s. Anyone with a record like that wouldn’t be permitted to enter as a tourist, much less be given residency, so I see no legal inconsistency in refusing them entry.

    My only concern would be if people granted residency were delayed unreasonably.

  7. [Take the moral high-ground and stick to it. All the ALP has to do is process people quickly, efficiently and fairly. They don’t have to be bleeding hearts about it. Maybe publicly demonstrate that undesireable or dangerous candidates do in fact get sent home. There are no votes it immigration for Labor so just avoid it at all costs and do the right thing.]

    Bowen said something very pertinent:

    The high number of rejects then go through lots of negotiation with their origin country to get them repatriated. THAT is what is taking so long for many. Those who are accepted move into the community quickly.

  8. Boerwar @ 5391

    How would TPVs stand legally following the High Court decision? Do they meet out international obligations? If not, then that High Court decision guarantees access to Australia’s legal system and they could be challenged surely?

    It’s times like this we need a lawyer!

  9. Ron

    Do you think that it might actually be you who is showing a lack of tolerance by swearing and yelling at everyone who doesn’t agree with you?

  13. jenauthor

    So what if they High Court knocks them off? (Which they wouldn’t in my amateur opinion.)

    If they are knocked off, the Coalition cannot hold them up as a matter of distinction between the two parties.

  14. [The high number of rejects then go through lots of negotiation with their origin country to get them repatriated. THAT is what is taking so long for many. Those who are accepted move into the community quickly.]

    Is it normal for those rejected to be detained with those still waiting processing?

  15. Deblonay:

    Re Blog font and size
    ________________
    Is there something wrong with my computer or has the font/size of this b,log been changed.
    I am now looking at a much smaller type-size of letters.etc..and reading is more difficult for me
    It isn’t happening on any other site for me
    Can anyone offer an explanantion ?????????????

    If you are using Firefox try Ctrl-0 (Ctrl-zero). This resets the display to the default font size (that’s if you’ve accidentally hit Ctrl-minus or Ctrl-plus, which decrease and increase font size respectively).

    Other browsers should have equivalents. Look in the VIEW menu.

  20. Gus

    [dio

    I am still tipping minority labo]

    I’m tipping you end up with enough egg on your face after the NSW election to make scrambled eggs for a year. 😉

  21. [jenauthor

    So what if they High Court knocks them off? (Which they wouldn’t in my amateur opinion.)

    If they are knocked off, the Coalition cannot hold them up as a matter of distinction between the two parties.]

    Sorry Boer — don’t get what this is about.

    ??????

  23. Boerwar..5376 re Tripoli /Benghazi
    _____________________________

    I think you overlook in your post the terror that Ghaddafi has exercised in Tripoli,and the control over the national media there. I think we’ll find that Tripoli is just the same as Benghazi..as are it’s people…

    A Libyan diplomat who has defected,as have many soldiers,gave an interview on ALJez a few days ago claiming that Gadaffi and his sons have brought a”rent a mod” from among poor people in the far south(Kufra oasis)and then housed then in a large disused factory in Trfipoli ,and used them in the staged demos we have seen in Green Sguare…y his media

    They are paid and fed but confined and available as needed for the TV….
    Internet and phone connections is closed,though a few have eluded that and given pictures of ruthless police suppresion in Tripoli. One of their specialties is castration .!!

    I will attach a frightful story from one young man who was subjected to horrific torture by Gadaffi’s police before being able to escape
    hen Gadaffi falls we will see the same outburst of joy…and revenge…in Tripoli as happened in Benghazi a month ago

    Gadaffi’s forces are mainly made up of African mercenaries.
    A plane shot down yesterday over Benghazi was flown by an Algerian pilot…and two last week were flown by Russians…but Gadaffi has had unlimited funds and pays very well…a fortune for pilots..
    I think the liberation of Tripoli which must come …will give us a view of how Gadaffi manipulated the media
    A few days ago a Gadaffi hit man in Benghazi killed the main Aljez reporter there,and wounded several colleagues….and attempted to storm a small hotel and kidnap Jordanian journos…in a partly successful effort at scaring away the media away from the rebel camp
    Benghazi has long tradition of rebellion against tyranny…going back to Mussolini’s fascists in the 20ies I’ll also post a comment on this from a journal overseas.

  24. J
    If the High Court says that TPVs are non constitutional or something, then the Coalition cannot offer TPVs as the only real big difference between Labor and Liberal.

  29. vic

    here in gods own (the central coast0 the fibs are running scared)

    the hubristic nature of there campaign may bite more them harder than they think

    also the CC debate that fatty has brought to the table is likely to galvanise any lazy green voter

    the big issue is how the spread of the ‘protest vote” goes

    methinks it will be highly concentrated in the fibs safe seats

    the indies will gain on where the fib/nat is seen as lazy

  30. Gus

    [loyalty comes at a price sometimes

    i prefer my eggs boiled btw]

    I bought Mrs D one of those egg boilers for up to 6 eggs. They are fantastic. Perfect eggs every time automatically.

    I’ll lend it to you as you will have a serious oversupply of eggs very soon. 😉

  31. [J
    If the High Court says that TPVs are non constitutional or something, then the Coalition cannot offer TPVs as the only real big difference between Labor and Liberal.]

    Sorry Boer — I wasn’t commenting on the difference between Lab/Lib policy or anything else.

    Just stating that one of the prime complaints that the press are carrying on with about CI is how long people are in detention. Bowen talking about the timelag being mainly due to repatriation negotiations is a pertinent one.

    On the AS policy in general — I tend to stay out of it because it is a rock/hard place situation. No answer really applies … and for every positive there seems to be a negative.

  32. deblonay

    I have not overlooked Gaddafi’s murderous bastardry at all. I hope they get him and his sons and do the right thing. I assume that what will happen instead is that he will do a runner and end up in that well-known haven for international scoundrels, Saudi Arabia which as we all know, is propped up by the good guys. And I perfectly aware that dictators have to buy their military. They always have and they always will.

    What I was doing was pointing out that Libya is strongly tribalized and we have jumped on the bandwagon of the ‘outs’ who will soon be ‘ins’. That will not be without consequences.

  33. William Bowe

    no I will not cease defendin myself as you want

    I was accused of being a Cristian , and from that assumpton later therefore I was accused a hypocrite

    what you deleted was my replying statements that

    Jesus I assume would hav said th same words to Bemused
    That i’ve never ever said I was a Cristian , or not
    That it was not diogeneous’s business anyway

    that i’ve never owned borrowered or read a bible ever for what th hell that means except to extent that everyone else on PB I assume has done so with a bible so they is more th reel Cristians

    That this site has some regular posting God hating Athiests bloggers who post on a politcal Site on all things daily with anti religous bile , which is both biggotted and is unleft by lacking any tollerance , and that no publicly ackowleged Athiest blogger ever obkects to such posts , and finaly said i will continue to expoze them as such

  35. The complexities of foreign affairs (i.e. negotiating with the home country) and the ongoing difficulties associated with establishing the identities of some asylum seekers are sadly lost on the MSM.

    I have to wonder why anyone would bother being a progressive politician sometimes.

  39. Ron @ 3433

    That this site has some regular posting God hating Athiests bloggers who post on a politcal Site on all things daily with anti religous bile , which is both biggotted and is unleft by lacking any tollerance , and that no publicly ackowleged Athiest blogger ever obkects to such posts , and finaly said i will continue to expoze them as such

    Ron, you are either confusing this site with another or you are seriously deluded.

  40. If you are going to have people in detention at all, then you are going to have them in detention for a long time. The time frame is likely to get longer rather than shorter, IMHO.

    Thhis is one of the inevitable outcomes of the legal industry getting its claws into the process. Review. Appeal. Review. Appeal. As I pointed out at the time, the legal industry have been trying to create an asylum seekers’ trough for years. Since there is no substantive difference between judges, lawyers and prosecuters (they all share the same troughs) the legal industry was, sooner or later, going to triumph.

    They have and, as I also pointed out a the time, the asylum seekers would pay and so would you and I. How right I was.

    Be warned that the legal industry would like to stretch the time out even further. Because for the legal industry, time is definitely money. Money for them. Money from asylum seekers and money from you and me.

    The legal industry is the one major Australian industries that has escaped serious and systematic reform for many, many decades. (Senior legal people of conscience that I have spoken with about this are seriously concerned about the situation. But they are in a tiny minority.) Given that the legal snouters infest our parliaments, I do not expect this to change any time soon.

  42. Psephologists should remember the nature of Italian politics before reading too much into this story. Italian researchers think that random selection could improve politics:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/18/3167785.htm?section=justin
    [Democracy can be better served by randomly selecting representatives, argue Italian researchers.

    Dr Alessandro Pluchino of the Universita di Cantania and colleagues report their findings on the pre-press website arXiv.org.

    “We think that the introduction of random selection systems, rediscovering the wisdom of ancient democracies, would be broadly beneficial for modern institutions,” write the researchers.

    Dr Pluchino and colleagues developed a computer simulation, in which they studied the behaviour of politicians when randomly selected independents were introduced to a model parliament.

    Their model relied on four categories of people in the parliament. These were: ‘intelligent’ people (actions serve both personal and social interests), ‘helpless or naive’ (loss for self, but gain for others), ‘bandits’ (benefit themselves, but not others), and ‘stupid’ (actions produce a loss for everyone).

    The model, involving a parliament made up of two parties, had 500 individuals who could each propose and vote for or against acts.

    Dr Pluchino and colleagues found that in all cases studied, adding random legislators improved the performance of the parliament. Specifically, there were more acts passed with social benefit.

    “Most people think that democracy means elections,” they write. “However … in the first significant democratic experience, namely the Athenian democracy, elections worked side by side with random selection (sortition) and direct participation.”]
    Of course, it would be ridiculous to suggest that the rich tapestry of Australian politics could be reduced to the categories “intelligent, naive, bandits and stupid”. 😀

  43. [That this site has some regular posting God hating Athiests bloggers who post on a politcal Site on all things daily with anti religous bile]

    I haven’t seen a single instance of what you are talking about.

  44. I have not overlooked Gaddafi’s murderous bastardry at all. I hope they get him and his sons and do the right thing.

    I fondly recall when Saddam Husseins sons were cornered in a building which the yanks shot up and *transformed* them into minced meat. One of they was called Uday and was a particularly sadistic asshole.

    That night on the Jay Leno show, he had a mock up of a bottle of “Oil of Ulan” that had been modified to read “Oil of Uday”.

    Sometimes they do get what they deserve.

    Gaddiffi’s sons are now talking *truce* to stall NATO attacks – lets hope it doesn’t work.

  45. Boerwar @ 5440

    Have you ever read Evan Whitton’s book ‘The Cartel’, or any of his other books on the topic? You would enjoy them.

  47. A point of clarification on that one. When I tell you to stop repeatedly calling someone a “dickhead”, it is not open to you to refuse on the ground that you are “defending yourself”. Ron was not “defending himself” – he was just, well, being a dickhead.

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