Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Fairfax’s monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46. One way to look at this is that there has been no change since a month ago, and this is the line newspapers who commission these polls are generally required to run. However, it was clear enough at the time that the previous result was an outlier, so this poll adds to a general impression of the Coalition lead having blown out from about 51-49 to 54-46. Notably, Nielsen’s two-party result is the same as last week’s Newspoll. Other results since the carbon tax announcement have been a 56-44 Morgan phone poll result, which came from a small sample, and the progress of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average from 49-51 to 52-48 to 53-47, from which the hair-splitters among us ascertained weekly results of 55-45 in week one and 51-49 in week two (UPDATE: Actually, Dendrite in comments nicely demonstrates why this need not be so). The latter result always looked like an anomaly, and since it will make up half of tomorrow’s published Essential result there will be cause to regard whatever it is as slightly flattering to Labor. We also had 50-50 from Morgan’s face-to-face, but this was also in keeping with the overall trend when you factor in its consistent bias to Labor.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments that Nielsen more or less replicates Newspoll in having Kevin Rudd favoured over Julia Gillard by 39 per cent to 34 per cent. One point of agreement to emerge from this morning’s critically acclaimed episode of Insiders was that head-to-head polls of this kind are not to be trusted, as they invite non-supporters of the party to make mischief – which could equally apply to Tony Abbott’s shaky ratings against Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey. Even so, Morgan records Gillard’s lead over Rudd among Labor voters as shrinking from 37 per cent to 10 per cent over the past three months.

UPDATE 2: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The two-party vote being what it is, the primaries are a little better for Labor than anticipated: the Coalition is on 45 per cent, as in Newspoll, but Labor is on 33 per cent rather than 30 per cent. This looks as much like a 53-47 result as a 54-46. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are substantially better than in Newspoll: approval down five to 47 per cent, disapproval up four 47 per cent. This might be seen as evidence of the bounce leaders traditionally get when before the world stage, which may also have buttressed them a little on voting intention. Whereas the previous Nielsen poll uncovered no evidence of Tony Abbott taking a hit from the Mark Riley death stare and its attendant week of party disunity, this time he is down three on approval to 43 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred prime minister has little changed, with Gillard steady on 51 per cent and Abbott up one to 42 per cent.

UPDATE 3: The latest Essential Research survey joins the 54-46 club, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47 per cent and 10 per cent. The monthly question on personal approval to has Julia Gillard in net negative territory for the first time, her approval down seven points to 41 per cent and disapproval up five to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively steady on 38 per cent and up a point to 47 per cent. Both have similar ratings for “strongly approve” (7 per cent each) and “strongly disapprove” (24 per cent for Gillard and 27 per cent for Abbott), with the latter notably higher than the former. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-31 to 44-33.

Questions on carbon price serve to remind us that wording goes a long way: when asked whether they would support the scheme “if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, which is pretty much the idea (albeit that there is no shortage of devil in the detail), 54 per cent said they would against only 30 per cent who said they wouldn’t. However, to further emphasise how complicated the politics of this gets, 45 per cent agreed action should be delayed “until the US has established an equal or stronger carbon pricing system” against 33 per cent who did not agree. Respondents were again asked if they merely supported the government’s announcement, with 38 per cent saying yes (up three on last week) and 49 per cent said no (up one).

Questions on same-sex marriage and territory rights underscore the surprisingly candid misgivings The Australian expressed last week about democracy. Forty-nine per cent support same-sex marriage against 40 per cent opposed, while 74 per cent failed to recognise that federal ministers should remain capable of overriding territory legislation at their whim (which The Australian regarded as so self-evident it did not trouble itself to explain why). Only 9 per cent were dopey enough to take the contrary view.

OH, AND BY THE WAY: Don’t forget to take advantage of the fabulous Crikey group subscriptions offer detailed in the post below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,604 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Sounds like the govt are trying to regain control over the AS issue by making calm, incremental changes to the policy, and talking about humaneness and access to services. The only thing Morrison could do is squeal about Boats! and the number of beds.]

    confessions – did you think that Morrison looked flustered and embarrassed on the Nation. I thought Bowen and Marr eventually took the line that no matter what they said Morrison was going to go feral so they just ended up in wry resignation.

    I didn’t think Speers did too bad a job last night. He certainly cut Akerman out of the loop a lot. I also thought he was a bit exasperated with the ‘stop the boats’ line. What say you.

  2. Aguirre,

    [I’m fascinated at the moment about the extent to which presenters and news staff are willing contributors to what we hear. The impression I get of News Ltd is that a lot of journalists there are toeing the Murdoch line. They want to be successful journalists within the broad slant Murdoch demands, whether they agree with that direction or not. They would, I’m sure, regard that as pure professionalism – that is, achieving under the parameters as set by the boss. Perhaps careerism is a better word. I get the feeling some of them would write differently at another organisation.

    I’m not so sure with the ABC. There’s an overall slant to the organisation, I think, but it doesn’t seem to be adhered to as strictly. That makes me wonder how that can come about. And exactly how many of its employees are willing participants.]

    I think it’s known as the “culture of compliance”. That is, the staffers ‘know’, without being explicitly directed, what the management/ownership wants and expects. For example, it’s unlikely that Rupert himself has taken each of his journos aside to tell them the slant he expects on political stories … but the culture is established within the organisation, and if the people want to get ahead they know what hoops they must jump through.

    It’s likely a similar scenario operates at Their ABC. The political leaning of many in the most senior ranks of the org is no secret.

    Additionally, employment opportunities for journalists being what they are in Australia, if they want to get ahead they know the prevailing political/editorial line they must toe.

    This is where a strong public broadcaster is critical as a counter to the influence of private media ownership …. But sadly for our democracy, the dividing line between News Ltd and Their ABC is awfully blurred these days. (Akerman appearing on Onesiders Insiders this coming weekend being just the latest example).

  3. SK
    The biggest difficulty at the moment is the sheer dislocation caused by failed urban infrastructure systems. So, for example, there is food in southern Japan but there is little or no petrol and no trains left in large parts of northern Japan to distribute the food around.
    Another difficulty is one that has to do with the age structure of the population: there are lots and lots of elderly people.
    Japan has a population of around 130 million or around six times the population of Australia.
    It is difficult to work out something comparable in Australia.

    Imagine every physical infrastructure north of about Townsville has disappeared completely and you would have about an equivalent situation. Remember that the survivors had no notice and have nothing but the clothes on their backs. Literally. At the same time there has been enough damage done to the infrastructure down south so that lots of people do not have electricity, running water and that food distribution has been severely hampered. Plus you have to evacuate another 100,000 Aussies because of radiation. Oh, and every hour or so your building shakes to buggery.

    Not sure how Aussies would respond.

  4. lynchpin
    [George Pell is a disgrace. His letter to the Senate committee on climate change was imbecilic, idiotic and disingenuous. He pretends to speak on behalf of Australian Catholics.
    Oh, they must feel so warm and snug at night in their sodden ecstacies of rectitude…that club comprised of Pell, Abbott and Devine, to name a few.]

    Yes, Pell exceeded the bounds of their normal irrationality in that ludicrous foray into something he knows nothing about. The head of BOM straightened him out in a few sentences, but Pell unexplicably came back for more. If he puts his ignorant head above the parapet like that he can’t complain when it gets hit with the rational truth. When you already live in a fantasy world of irrationality, the irrationality of climate sceptics must look attractive I guess.

  5. The Gillard Government had better have a regional processing centre up and running in East Timor by the time of the next election, or it can say kiss my arse to a percent or two of the federal vote. It might want to consider putting in TPVs as well.

  6. Looks like hours or at most a few days before the NFZ is operative.

    [THE UN Security Council has authorised air strikes to halt Muammar Gaddafi’s offensive against embattled rebel forces in Libya, with the first bombing raids possible within hours.

    “We have very little time left. It is a matter of days. Perhaps it is a matter of hours,” French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said at the United Nations. “We should not arrive too late.”]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/bomb-raids-on-libya-expected-soon/story-e6frea73-1226023991461

  7. [Sounds like the govt are trying to regain control over the AS issue by making calm, incremental changes to the policy, and talking about humaneness and access to services. The only thing Morrison could do is squeal about Boats! and the number of beds.]

    Evan Human Rights person this morning was backing Bowen more than I expected altho Trioli tried hard to pin incompetence on Human Rights mob for not beating the Govt. with a bigger stick.

    Totally agree that the trouble makers should not be processed but sent back or kept in Villawood in high security. They make life very difficult for the AS who are patiently waiting.

    I wonder whether any of them have been stirred up by messages from onshore Osz.

  8. BH:

    I watched Morrison squirm very uncomfortably at one point where Marr was pressing him about the efficacy of the pacific solution vs them sending the boats back to Indonesia. I switched off when it became apparent the only thing Morrison and Piers were going to say was STOP THE BOATS!

    It seems to me that the govt has decided detention facilities should be close to amenities and support services, including being able to be visited by relatives, and have already started to act on that. I think this is sensible. Of course the rioting detainees on CI make it much more difficult for such a policy shift to be sold to the public. Sometimes I just despair!

  10. I am not taking any responsibility for their decisions and actions away from the rioters at C.I., but there is always the possibility that outside provocateurs were involved. I know, I know- when the choice is between malice & stupidity, always bet on stupidity…but still.

    It doesn’t change the response that must follow (mass expulsions), but I hope thorough inquiries are made of the ringleaders regarding the origins of their plan…

  13. K
    There will not be mass expulsions. Each individual will be treated on his merits and will have a right of review.

  18. [@latikambourke
    Latika Bourke Joe Hockey on Libya No Fly Zone continued ‘I find it hard to believe that we are leading the world in this sort of debate.’
    6 minutes ago via TweetDeck Favorite Retweet Reply
    replies ?
    »
    peter_stagg Peter Stagg
    @ @latikambourke considering what @JoeHockey has been tweeting lately he would find it hard to believe today is Friday
    2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply » EnoTheWonderdog David Dayus
    @ @latikambourke So if you can’t belittle the cause belittle the ALP guy promoting the cause – well done @JoeHockey. What a toss-pot!
    2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  19. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 40 seconds ago
    Joe Hockey on Libya No Fly Zone continued ‘I find it hard to believe that we are leading the world in this sort of debate.’

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 46 seconds ago
    Joe Hockey on Libya #NFZ ‘Australia’s contribution to this sort of debate is far more limited than maybe Mr Rudd would have you believe.]

  20. [Joe Hockey on Libya #NFZ ‘Australia’s contribution to this sort of debate is far more limited than maybe Mr Rudd would have you believe.’]
    [Joe Hockey on Libya No Fly Zone continued ‘I find it hard to believe that we are leading the world in this sort of debate.’]

    Joe is more interested in rubbishing our govt than supporting the UN in trying to thwart Gadaffi.
    http://twitter.com/latikambourke

  22. All right. That’s fair enough. “Mass expulsions” is here an inaccurate and loaded term.

    Expulsions of a (probable) group of individuals, once their cases have been treated on their merits, and have been accorded their right of review.

  24. Ron

    [SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.]

    For someone who is supposedly a Christian, you don’t act like one.

    What would Jesus do?

  25. Ron @ 5367

    I rarely read your tortuous prose and you are providing further justification for not reading your comments.

    A pity in a way as your updates on Egypt were quite good and appreciated.

  26. Dio

    I am confused. I thought that a NFZ was just that, a place where Gaddafi’s air force is not allowed to operate, at pain of being shot down.

    ‘Strikes’ are air-to-ground attacks. So, have we morphed straight from some sort of aerial video game to being at war?

    That was quick!

    It is pretty clear that Libya is riven by tribalism and that the Tripoli mob are much more in favour of Gaddafi than the Benghazi mob. I wonder what the plan is if the Benghazi mob start doing a bit of murdering of pro-Gaddafi civilians? Oh, and if we accidentally kill a few women and kids in Tripoli? That ought to get the jihadis on their high horses.

  27. Bemused and Adelaide Girl not bad 51/49 and Boerwar, I know what you are saying but still nice to be in front I think on these polls on Carbon

  29. Dio
    Answer to your question:

    ‘Render unto the Greens the things which are the Greens’, and unto Labor the things that are Labor’s”

  30. BW

    I gather the UN resolution gave them a huge amount of latitude, as long as they were “protecting citizens”.

    I dunno how they will use it.

  32. [The Gillard Government had better have a regional processing centre up and running in East Timor by the time of the next election, or it can say kiss my arse to a percent or two of the federal vote. It might want to consider putting in TPVs as well.]

    Boerwar – I’m turning more and more to Malcolm Fraser’s view. Bring them all onshort – no TPVs but they are here only if they don’t cause trouble. Otherwise deportation. They could work in jobs that no other Aussie wants to fill and we can educate them to move up the ladder. Much more humane and probably much more beneficial to our country.

    Wherever the Iraqi or Afghani As have worked in rural areas they have been valued. Instead of the negative media coverage we could do with some positives.

    The reason we have division in the community is because it was stirred up by John Howard. Kevin Rudd had the greatest opportunity to put that to bed in 2007 but he chose not to and didn’t follow through with what he promised.

    I think the two most impressive women on Q&A in recent months have been the young Islamic women who were both intelligent and reasonable. The shockjocks would be too frightened to have either of them on their programs.

  35. Re Blog font and size
    ________________
    Is there something wrong with my computer or has the font/size of this b,log been changed.
    I am now looking at a much smaller type-size of letters.etc..and reading is more difficult for me
    It isn’t happening on any other site for me
    Can anyone offer an explanantion ?????????????

  37. Dio

    If it involves the french, they have formally tied their colours to the rebs by recognizing them as the legitimate government of Libya. IMHO, the french will take the first little excuse they get (whether actual or manufactured) to do some very serious damage to Gaddafi’s air and navy, but in particular to his artillary and tanks. They more or less have cover from the UN and the Arab League so it is all systems go.

    The french would be quite happy to have the discussion about the whys and the wherefores once ‘their’ mob rule the roost in Tripoli.

    By then it will be move along folks, nothing of interest, nothing to see.

  41. TPVs are the only significant policy difference on asylum seekers between Labor and the Coalition at the moment. All the rest is sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    The question is: Should Labor insist on no TPVs and lose government which means that TPVs would still be introduced?

  42. Boerwar,

    It is not judgement on Japan, just a wish to save lives. There has got to be a way to help them. Helo drops? I don’t know but I can’t help but think that these oldies deserve better than to die from starvation after surviving an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear threat.

  46. Labor would be wasting its time going the offshore processing / TPV route. Powerfox could be cruising around northern Australia in a tinnie turning back boats personally and the general public would still consider the Libs tougher on foreig.. I mean “Illegal” Immigrants.

    Take the moral high-ground and stick to it. All the ALP has to do is process people quickly, efficiently and fairly. They don’t have to be bleeding hearts about it. Maybe publicly demonstrate that undesireable or dangerous candidates do in fact get sent home. There are no votes it immigration for Labor so just avoid it at all costs and do the right thing.

  47. Joe means that he finds it hard to believe that Australia leads the world on the debate because he is using Bishop as his benchmark.

    Fair enough.

  48. SK

    They were deserted by their carers and no-one who did the deserting thought to inform the authorities that old people were being abandoned.

  50. You cannot enforce no-fly zone before you take out the target area’s anti-aircraft defences. Nor would a mere no fly zone stop Gadaffi using artillery and ground to ground missiles to obliterate somewhere like Benghazi.

    This is why some nations, notably those whose pilots are the ones who be killed or shot down and then dragged through the streets, have been less than enthusiastic about military intervention, which in reality means everything short of sending in ground troops.

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