GhostWhoVotes reports the first carbon tax Newspoll has Labor receiving roughly the expected hit on voting intention, with a double dose for Julia Gillard personally. Labor’s vote has dived six points to 30 per cent, with the Coalition up four to 45 per cent and – intriguingly – the Greens up two to 15 per cent. The Coalition two-party lead of 54-46 compares with 50-50 a fortnight ago. An even bigger sting for Julia Gillard comes with a finding that Kevin Rudd leads her as best person to lead the ALP 44 per cent to 37 per cent, and a 23-point reversal in her net approval rating: approval down 11 points to 39 per cent, disapproval up 12 to 51 per cent. Funnily enough, these are exactly the same as the figures for Tony Abbott, who is respectively up one and up two. After a strong showing a fortnight ago, Gillard has lost eight points on preferred prime minister to 45 per cent and Abbott is up five to 36 per cent. For all that, a substantial 42 per cent profess themselves in favour of a price on carbon, with 53 per cent opposed – although the figures are respectively down five and up four on November. Full tables here.
UPDATE: James J points out in comments that this is Labor’s worst primary vote in Newspoll history. The previous record of 31 per cent came in August 1993, shortly after a Labor government broke a pre-election promise on tax. However, this was in an age when there was no Greens scooping up 15 per cent of the vote and feeding three-quarters of it back as preferences.
UPDATE 2: While I’m here, I’ll repost what I said about today’s Essential Research poll, which got buried a few posts back. The first Essential result taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent.
Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
[http://marvellousmelbourne.org/drupal/?q=node/1259
here is an example gee that was easy to find
right wing party and preference the Libs like they always have.
Make no mistake, these angry bogans have probably never voted Labor except by accident ]
so if they left ( i didnt mean they would vote for us} i just meant if they left would that help us
dave: that’s as may be, but there was something about Julia when she came out of that meeting.
She looked to me like she had an extra spring in her step 😀
yes but angry bogans would be the first to scream if there childen endowment was cut, or they dont get a pension rise.
so they must the very self lot perhaps
my say: yes, the only time they vote for us is when we make anti-immigration noises or engage in poofter bashing.
They are and never will be a part of the ALP’s natural constituency.
http://marvellousmelbourne.org/drupal/?q=node/1259
why dont links alwasy go green
Hairy Nose,
[I implore you all to formally complain whenever there is a blatant example of politicking. Easy to find, just google ABC complaints.]
Better still, here’s the link to send a complain online:
http://www.abc.net.au/contact/contactabc.htm
sos no one game to copy and paste the chat on line by tone
I agree in principle. But put it this way: I, and many people on this blog, understand quite clearly the principles of what this policy will do, and its advantages. There’s only one place to get this information, and that’s from the Labor Party. I’ve come across a number of examples, quoted here, where either Gillard or Combet (and at times Swan) have been on some form of media putting the whole thing in easy-to-understand terms.
But much of it gets lost between them saying it and it being reported. Especially – especially – in the area of compensation for those affected by the increase in prices. That gets routinely ignored, and yet it’s right there in every interview given by an ALP bod. But the media journalists are still too fascinated with the implications of whether Gillard lied at the last election (because as you know, lying is sooo rare in politics – you wouldn’t find Abbott doing that, no way Jose) to pay the details of the carbon tax any real attention.
Plus, you’ve got clear evidence just today that the media will uncritically accept the positions of both Abbott (“I believe in climate change today”) and Minchin (“There’s no such thing”); and subsequently give credence to attacks by both of them.
And as if that’s not enough, we have to contend with non-stories like this supposed Rudd-Gillard rift being skyrocketed to lead item on ABC News!
What you’re asking the ALP to do is drown all of that out. They’re already educating, it’s just not being reported. And when it is, it’s given no better than equal billing with whatever grab-bag of misinformation the Liberals have come with on any given day.
Given all that crap, I think they’re better off just doing their job. Let the reporters and journalists carry on with the infantilisation of Australian politics, and just get this policy bedded down. As I said earlier, nothing is going to stop them, and they’re on a hiding to nothing trying to win the propaganda war at this point in time.
i did about the two junos chat, and i was told very firmly
‘it will continuel.”
[why dont links alwasy go green]
Probably because you copy and paste an extra invisible character. If you copy and paste the green and black url into the url field in your browser it works.
Danny Lewis@4603
This article by Kohler is *related*. He maintains that murdoch can have
paywalls on his publications or he can have power/ influence, but not both.
Apparently, murdochs paywalls (sort of) come to Australia in a few months.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rupert-Murdoch-birthday-80-NWS-News-Corp-paywall-pd20110311-ETR37?OpenDocument&src=rot
There seems to be some extreme Greens on here now trying to undermine
the Carbon war effort. This is disappointing.
The battle is now is with the deniers who have whipped up the uninformed
public against any kind of action.
The first step is to get some kind of Carbon price in place (initially fixed price
permits, or a fully-fledged ETS, or a Carbon Tax, anything). 5% , 20%,
25% does not matter to start with.
Once it is in place all the hysterical scare tactics will be negated and
work can ramp up on 1) increasing the international effort; and
2) (less importantly) tightening Australia’s cap. There are plenty
of battles to be fought on these as well but they can wait.
It is also stupid to be worrying about Australia’s 2020 target now when
the initial stages of the current ALP-Green proposal are for
a fixed price on Carbon. Having a fixed price means that
you can’t control the emissions to start with, just get
people used to measuring it and get people used
to thinking about alternatives.
Targets on emissions will have to come later when
we have variable prices.
I have set up fake facebook persona to infiltrate the deniers.
Tony Abbott Interview Watch.
Still none. Still no criticism of this.
One thoing on all the Tea Party coverage.
it appears to be forgotten that Tea Party rose in enmity as uch of the manstream Repubican Party as it did the Democrats.
For all the hidden funding and string pulling by certain wealthy individuals in the USA it was very much anti-establishment in general, not just one party.
The Liberals need to be very careful here. The Genie they are attempting to unleash is just as likely to turn on them as it is the government.
b_g: good one 😀
Fight fire with fire, I say.
Danny
It should be fun.
There is nothing in the world *more* fun than taking the piss out of rabid, irrational Tea Partyers 😀
So how can Nick Minchin with no scientific credentials criticise Garnaut over his bona fides regarding CC?
Why arn’t the MSM asking the same q’s of Minchin ?
Paul_J
Apparently pollies can be experts at anything they choose, but the rest of us must have qualifications before we are allowed opinions.
Why are people surprised and shocked by Gadaffi Regime’s reactions to the so called people revolution.
How do you think he stayed in power since 1969? By being nice? serving butter tea with cucumber Bazin bread?
As usual the Arab League is pathetically silent and impotent and the West’s dithering “to do or not to do”.
YOU CANT HANDLE REVOLUTION!!!!
[A deep rift exists between Ms Gillard and Mr Murdoch. They have not spoken to each other in the last 30 minutes. Ms Gillard must come clean and state whether he still has her full confidence.]
No, it is all part of the MSM’s need for “balance”.
Apparently 1 appropriately credentialled and experience Climate Scientist = 20 non- Climate Scientists/non-credentialled Opinioistas.
Some appropriately credentialled Climate Scientist was interviewed on ABC 24 by Jane Hutchin this afternoon – great interview, BTW – and he made that exact point. He was bemoaning the fact that non-specialists and ignoramuses are given the same amount of airtime in the media. He (generously in my view) put it down to balance, but I think all you have to do is look at who owns/runs/is on the board of our media in Australia and look at what their views are on this issue and you can see it’s not about balance, it’s about those people.
Jane Hutcheon is a really good journalist and presenter. Her stuff from China when she was posted there was excellent.
[Jane Hutchin this afternoon – great interview, BTW – and he made that exact point. He ]
Now there is one of the only junos left at the abc that i would watch
[A deep rift exists between Ms Gillard and Mr Murdoch. They have not spoken to each other in the last 30 minutes. ]
vp, wot 30mins!!!!! have they been having a bit of hanky panky behind his payball?
ooopps, payball = paywall
yes and she was in uK when the rail system was bombed anna amariche is great to
perhpas thats why they wish to serve overseas.
[ POLLYTICS | 56 seconds ago
The Bulahdelah to Port Macquarie upgrade that has been planned for 23 years & the Chaffey dam upgrade planned for 10 and promised in 2007!
POLLYTICS | 38 seconds ago
That Massola article on pork barreling in Lyne and New England is unhinged horseshit.]
What’s this heap of baloney from Massola. The Bulahdelah bypass has been happening for the past few years. Bob Carr got stuck into the Highway in many different spots and had to drag Howard kicking and screaming to put some money in to it.
Rudd Labor also put some in. Massola is obviously trying to stir up trouble for Rob Oakeshott. Can’t he do some proper research or is it too much to ask of these peabrained churnalists.
[anna amariche ]
my say
emma alberiche is her name i think
http://www2b.abc.net.au/guestbookcentral/list.asp?guestbookID=156
mysay has previously posted the link to the feedback for the new 7.30 show. Sentiment is running strongly against it. The supporters in the main are stridently anti Government. That Miranda Devine has congratulated the show speaks volumes. Question: how far can the ABC go before there is an overwhelming outcry? A year ago there was an occasional cry in the dark, the crescendo is building…
Danny Lewis
I have been wrestling with myself about when the moment might come when the msm (and particularly the ABC) begin to treat AGW in the same way it treats “the earth is a globe, not flat”, or “the earth circles the sun, not vice versa”. – No need for balance becasue we all accept it as fact.
At current rates, I think about 500 years?
[Jane Hutcheon is a really good journalist and presenter. Her stuff from China when she was posted there was excellent.]
Vp, few years ago. i was at the airport lounge reading her book. she walked past and i got her to sign her book. Have been her fan since SBS days.
[Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@JHutcheon jane hutcheon, my fav journo, the power of one
10 Mar]
[JHutcheon Jane Hutcheon
@
@Thefinnigans I love the photo!!!!!!
10 Mar]
For your (un)favourite ABC journos.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABC_News_and_Current_Affairs
@ Lizzie
Thats it were just mere mortals.
Anyway off to work with a spring in my step. 😉
I think a call to Ratbag Radio and #ohmike after midnight tonight is in order.
cheers
Guys fixed the ABC Wiki page:
[
ABC News and Current Affairs outside broadcast vanABC News and Current Affairs is the name of the division of the Abbott’s Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that controls content classified as news, public affairs and business and finance.
However, the other divisions of the ABC also produce a range of programming within these genres. All such content is covered here.
]
He He He he!
Oops, sorry, the Spelling Nazi got a name wrong.
Yes, of course it is Jane Hutcheon.
Either way, she is really good. Always respectful, insightful and actually *listens* to the answer, rather than just concentrating on her next question.
If only there were more like her.
And yes, I agree My Say; Emma Alberici is up there with the best as well. It’s just a pity that they aren’t give prime time to show off their ability.
“What’s this heap of baloney from Massola. The Bulahdelah bypass has been happening for the past few years. Bob Carr got stuck into the Highway in many different spots and had to drag Howard kicking and screaming to put some money in to it.”
The Pacific Highway is a divided freeway standard road from Wahroonga to the Port Macquarie turn-off. Approximately 330 kms. The only “gaps” are near the Hunter River, where it is merely a four lane road with a couple of sets of lights and a roundabout or two. That will be done in a year or two. The Buladelah by-pass is well underway and will be finished later this year or early next year. Whatever Oakeschott’s problems are in Lyne, roads aren’t one of them. Massola, like all Murdoch “journalists” continues to prove himself a spearchucker for Abbott. Just creating lies and problems where none exist.
[Given all that crap, I think they’re better off just doing their job. Let the reporters and journalists carry on with the infantilisation of Australian politics, and just get this policy bedded down. As I said earlier, nothing is going to stop them, and they’re on a hiding to nothing trying to win the propaganda war at this point in time.]
Well said.
Space Kidette,
How long will it stay there? Not long if they follow PB.
Lizzie: it’s a no-brainer for me.
But you need to look behind the presenters and look who is pulling the strings. Who is the owner, major shareholder or, in the case of the ABC, who is on the board?
One you look at their views on things it isn’t hard to see those views reflected in the copy.
PS Where the hell is our sitcom???
[ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@jamesmassola The Master of Porkie Barrelling.
Favorite Reply Delete ]
SK,
You need to create an entry for Abbott’s Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). Now, that could be fun!
vp,
It is still there 😆
[PS Where the hell is our sitcom???]
Back 21 March.
Hey Dolphin Boy:
I think I might have had a spontaneous emission if I ever met Jane Hutcheon in person.
You are one lucky Flipper 😀
Cool, one of the climate deniers prominent in the anti-tax movement is also a vampire.
Awesome. This infiltration is too much fun.
vp
[PS Where the hell is our sitcom???
Back 21 March]
very funny!
SK
your tweets are very clever!!
vp,
Just for you!
[Abbott’s Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)
Type Broadcast
radio
television
online and mobile
Country Australia
Availability Nationwide
Owner Australian government
Key people Maurice Newman, Chairperson;
Mark Scott, Managing Director
Launch date 13 November 1929
(radio)
1 July 1932
(incorporation)
5 November 1956
(television)
1995
(online)
1 January 2001
(digital TV)
2009
(digital radio)
Former names Australian Broadcasting Company (1929–32)
Australian Broadcasting Commission (1932–83)
Official Website http://www.abc.net.au
The Abbott Broadcasting Corporation, commonly referred to as “the ABC” (and informally as “Aunty”[1][2]), is Australia’s national public broadcaster. With a total budget of A$1.13 billion annually,[3] the corporation provides television, radio, online and mobile services throughout metropolitan and regional Australia, as well as overseas through the Australia Network and Radio Australia
]
[I think I might have had a spontaneous emission if I ever met Jane Hutcheon in person.]
Hey Danny Boy, i did, i did 👿