GhostWhoVotes reports the first carbon tax Newspoll has Labor receiving roughly the expected hit on voting intention, with a double dose for Julia Gillard personally. Labor’s vote has dived six points to 30 per cent, with the Coalition up four to 45 per cent and – intriguingly – the Greens up two to 15 per cent. The Coalition two-party lead of 54-46 compares with 50-50 a fortnight ago. An even bigger sting for Julia Gillard comes with a finding that Kevin Rudd leads her as best person to lead the ALP 44 per cent to 37 per cent, and a 23-point reversal in her net approval rating: approval down 11 points to 39 per cent, disapproval up 12 to 51 per cent. Funnily enough, these are exactly the same as the figures for Tony Abbott, who is respectively up one and up two. After a strong showing a fortnight ago, Gillard has lost eight points on preferred prime minister to 45 per cent and Abbott is up five to 36 per cent. For all that, a substantial 42 per cent profess themselves in favour of a price on carbon, with 53 per cent opposed – although the figures are respectively down five and up four on November. Full tables here.
UPDATE: James J points out in comments that this is Labor’s worst primary vote in Newspoll history. The previous record of 31 per cent came in August 1993, shortly after a Labor government broke a pre-election promise on tax. However, this was in an age when there was no Greens scooping up 15 per cent of the vote and feeding three-quarters of it back as preferences.
UPDATE 2: While I’m here, I’ll repost what I said about today’s Essential Research poll, which got buried a few posts back. The first Essential result taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent.
Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
Why would Minchin come out now? He won.
Someone also asked him to start calling it a “Carbon Dioxide Tax”
[It is really, really clear that Tony’s hero worshippers are the climate deniers.]
Wrong way round: they worship Tone (/ hate Labor) and, therefore, are climate deniers.
[It is really, really clear that Tony’s hero worshippers are the climate deniers.]
Wrong way round: they worship Tone (/ hate Labor) and, therefore, are climate deniers.
No VP,
I think the deniers were there first and Tony rode on the backs of them to the leadership.
vp,
there are elements of both.
LOL madcyril.
As we’ve found out previously, he’d call it a “carbon doxide” Tax 😀
[JAMESMASSOLA | 49 seconds ago
@Pollytics thanks Poss. i’m feeling fairly “hinged” today, actually.]
[POLLYTICS | 31 seconds ago
Next we’ll have allegations of porkbarreling because old people in those seats are getting the aged pension]
[POLLYTICS | 56 seconds ago
The Bulahdelah to Port Macquarie upgrade that has been planned for 23 years & the Chaffey dam upgrade planned for 10 and promised in 2007!]
[POLLYTICS | 38 seconds ago
That Massola article on pork barreling in Lyne and New England is unhinged horseshit. In this so called list is…(wait for it, wait for it)]
If BW is right about Minchin’s source, I apologise for misleading people. I’d still say the ABC could have tried to fnd ut who it was before reprting Minchin’s comments as gospel.
Even the Christys, Pielkes and Spencers of the world have had to admit that CO2 has some warming effect if they don’t want to be the laughing stock of the entire scientific community (well any more than they are already).
No one who is a real scientist can deny the physical chemistry of CO2.They are all luke-warmers now which is why they’re all busily fudging figures on climate sensitivity.
The Moncktons, Watts’ and Moranos simply don’t give a toss (or are really that dumb) and just flat-out make up whatever complete garbage they feel like.
Interesting Massola does not respond to the crux of Pollytics tweets. Simple enough suggestion to debunk isn’t it James?
[POLLYTICS | 1 minute ago
Actually, it’s worse than that. The ball started rolling on the Chaffey Dam upgrade in 1990 and went public in January 1991!]
Victoria: okay, so he’s disagreeing with the “unhinged” part. Does that means he agrees with the “horseshit” part? 😉
[Because the carbon announcement has been made, and the moon-howlers have been released.]
And this will stop the CT going through the parliament how?
[JAMESMASSOLA | 5 minutes ago
@Pollytics and it was announced by Tony Burke and Tony Windsor feb 9, 2011. These facts are not mutually exclusive]
[JAMESMASSOLA | 49 seconds ago
@Pollytics thanks Poss. i’m feeling fairly “hinged” today, actually.]
Isn’t Massola the coward who ‘outed’ Grog?
tom
one and the same
Yes he is Tom
Tom Hawkins
[Isn’t Massola the coward who ‘outed’ Grog?]
Yes he was.
I think Malcolm Turnbull has played this very smartly.
I said a few days ago that I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he is in contact with members of the parliamentary climate change committee and is having an input, even if it is off the record. Well, I am more convinced than ever that this is the case and that there are other Coalition (well, Liberal at least) members who are waiting in the wings and watching to see what unfolds before they show their hands.
The cracks are finally showing and Big Mal has ensured he is in the right place at the right time. But whether that is to attempt to take over the leadership or to forgo all of that and sit on the crossbenches, I’m not sure.
Either way, the debate is about to ramp up about five notches and – this is my even bolder prediction – Abbott is about to unhinge in such a major way that even the staunchest of the Liberal-leaning Murdoch papers will be too embarrassed to support him.
Or am I the only one who doesn’t think that Julia’s visit to Rupey in NY was just because she happened to be in town? 😉
Just out of interest, who was in government when the original announcements were made. I am sure it won’t have been the coalition trying to pork-barrel what were then National Party seats, or James would have said so.
Is Abbott still live blogging?
Someone should ask him whether he has recently met with Cardinal Pell 😉
Excellent point, Gos.
Because we all know that Howard would NEVER had done such a thing.
[Someone should ask him whether he has recently met with Cardinal Pell]
I’m sure he’d give a straight answer.
Apologies if others have posted links to it, but Garnaut has put up an update paper on Climate Change science:
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/update-papers/up5-the-science-of-climate-change.pdf
It is a good summary, depressing as those familair with it woudl expect. Not much comfort here for those pushing for a -5% emission target. The debate in Europe is between lobbyists for -25% and -30%.
Thanks Peter.
We should never forget what he did and we should remind and inform others of it for as long as he sticks around.
“We believe in sort-of Climate Change”: Abbott.
You’ll e able to hear the renting of garments and the tearing out of hair on Bolt’s Blog anytime now. Then they’ll convince themselves it’s just a ruse to get through the week.
Which it is, of course.
BK:
[oh, you mean THAT Cardinal Pell. Yes, I did, now you come to mention it]
God that was hilarious. And it was such an unnecessary lie. It’s almost like his first instinct is to lie, especially if he suspects the motives behind the question.
Which is why I’d like him to be asked again. Especially as we have both climate change and gay marriage in the news at the moment. I’m sure he’s had at least one convo with his spiritual leader on both these subjects 😉
If he lies he could always go to confession.
Gary@4564
You’ve minimised the need for leadership from Labor before. If you think Labor does not need to educate the community and win the debate on the issue, just because it will probably ( but not definitely) have the numbers in both houses, I believe you are misguided. I know the Labor right traditionally considers nothing but the numbers, but more is required of the government on this issue. It needs to get people as informed and as supportive of concerted action as they are in Europe. We aren’t talking about the paltry 2009 bill this time either. We might be looking at action aimed at 350ppm by 2050 later on too.
Tom @ 4576
Maintain the rage, especially the OO cry babies 😀
Tone has just “run out of time” on the Tele Blog. Cheers, Tony.
[If he lies he could always go to confession.]
Apparently Abbott goes to confession and asks for forgiveness for sins he hasn’t yet committed. That way he can lie and cheat with a clear conscience.
is the live blogging still up as is will it stay there
who is
[ CM have picked]
jv @ 4580
I agree. Just passing the legislation won’t be enough. The voters need to be convinced, otherwise they will toss out Labor and allow the Libs to bring in some crackpot scheme to “undo the harm that Labor did.”
[You’ve minimised the need for leadership from Labor before. If you think Labor does not need to educate the community and win the debate on the issue, just because it will probably ( but not definitely) have the numbers in both houses, I believe you are misguided. I know the Labor right traditionally considers nothing but the numbers, but more is required of the government on this issue. It needs to get people as informed and as supportive of concerted action as they are in Europe. We aren’t talking about the paltry 2009 bill this time either. We might be looking at action aimed at 350ppm by 2050 later on too.]
People in general are not going to support action that will cost them no matter how hard you try and convince them otherwise. The only way they’ll support such action is by see the CT operate and realise it doesn’t hurt them financially.
Most are not interested enough right now to be searching or listening to the science. That’s not to say there is not a time and place for it. There is and that is when people are ready to listen. In announcing the detail of the scheme and selling it that is when to also argue the science IMHO.
I don’t know why but you keep on dragging left, right, factions into it.
[Apparently Abbott goes to confession and asks for forgiveness for sins he hasn’t yet committed. That way he can lie and cheat with a clear conscience.]
Being a sinner on the slate?
are any of you going to past and copy here here the conversations with abbott
if so i make a coffee and bring my best choy biscuits in to share
[Wonder what qldrs are thinking about the climate right now
Rain pounds flooded north Queensland
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/11/3161484.htm?section=justin
most of them burying there head in the sand as usual, as i have said before the poll about still being liberals annoyed me so much i vowed and declares to give nothing to there fund raising.]
1. If they’re Old Qlders like me, “Back to the 1950s & 60s weather patterns”. Spot on, since they are typical of Qld 1946/7 to 1976, and during C19. You can check the veracity of this by:
(a) ordering relevant Courier Mail records, on-line or microfiche; esp papers from 1950-56 (b) downloading Q (inc NQ) extreme weather event (rainfall, cyclone and flood records) records. In all three categories, Q’s extreme weather event records are still held by 19th Century events – the chronologically latest for Cyclone Mahina 1898. You might recall that I did include these (with urls) in my PB comments on several occasions over the past 3 months.
2. That, during 2010’s late Spring and Summer, when research meteorologists first reported abnormally high oceanic temperatures and opined that, as records did not stretch back many decades, they were in “uncharted territory”, so did not know what the temperatures indicated: worse drought, worse wet seasons, or something else. At the same time & later, Greens and TV weather reporters were spreading hysterical “worse El Nino”, “worse drought” predictions – again, something on which I commented on PB at the time before “worse El Nino” hysteria became “El Nina” and more and worse extreme climate events.
3. That, at the time of the Victorian bushfires (early 2009), CC alarmists were telling us that the climate would get relentlessly hotter and drier; accompanied by claims of the effects on rainforests and the Great Barrier Reef. There was no break in this mantra until late Dec 2010’s Central Q floods.
Again, that’s something you can check through newspapers/ microfiche
4. So Qlders aren’t the people burying there head in the sand as usual. Qlders are the ones who, because Q’s track record of extreme weather events is so thick with them – in this state, if you have any sense, you NEVER buy a block of land, or rent a house, without checking (a) flood maps (b) cyclone frequency, timing & intensity (c) whether, for what and under what conditions any specific insurance insurance company will insure you – that’s why smart Qlders insure with Suncorp which covers almost everything, inc flood & tsunami.
If you watched coverage of Q’s Summer from Hell, from CQ floods to Cyclone Yasi, you’d have heard people comparing the to floods of the past: Rockhampton’s Depot Hill (1953/4) and earlier – Fitzory-Dawson floods that caused residents of Clermont to shift the town 1916 (that’s a BOM website recording Australian extreme weather events) after big floods in 1860’s, 70s’ Notice the statement:
[By the early 1900’s, Clermont residents regarded flooding as a normal, if undesirable part of life in their town, following various floods since its settlement in the 1860s. The benchmark was set by one in 1870 when, legend has it, men drank in the hotel while up to their chests in water.]
Similar records exist for Burnett, Mary, Noosa, Brisbane, Bremer – in fact, all Q’s flood-prone rivers. Same patterns; same worse in C19 than at any time since records. Even Toowoomba proved to have had a similar sodden ground, downpour -> flood event c1906.
5. It’s up to you if you want to restrict your charity to those who vote the way you want them to; though, in a fairly long life, I know of no one else who has ever expressed that sort of prejudice, from the time we were giving our pennies to “starving children in Europe” (1947; my first school year) until we contributed to Christchurch earthquake victims.
I contributed to the Feb 67 Tasmanian bushfires; then teaching in a school in Brisbane’s solidly ALP voting poor, slum suburbs, where the kids & staff raised well over $1,000 (that’s 1967 $$$ – more than my annual wage). The then premier was Liberal Ray Groom (I just checked). In fact, had I heard that sentiment expressed, I’d have exploded. So, I’m proud to say, would those kids who walked 28 footsore, hilly miles with me in the fundraiser I remember best.
my say
Go to the Daiily Telegraph web site.
[ I’m sure he’d give a straight answer.
If he lies he could always go to confession.]
I am sure his stiff way of walking is a result of all the self flagellation he does for penance. I could say more but good taste (and respect for the catholics here) prevents me.
Re: Abbott’s penance — I reckon it is why he also goes ‘missing’ every second day … it takes a long time to whip yourself 100 times, and say 5 Hail Marys for every lie he utters. He probably gets no sleep at all.
Pleased no-one has been sucked into the “rift” bullshit story. Its so entirely predictable that the ABC picks it up and amplifies it for all they’re worth. I implore you all to formally complain whenever there is a blatant example of politicking. Easy to find, just google ABC complaints.
OPT
Does this mean that Qlders are the least likely to believe the AGW theory, because to them, the weather is “as usual”?
From what I have read, Qld weather will not change as much as other regions, at least in N Qld. But perhaps I’m wrong.
Actually, jenauthor, I disagree.
I’m sure Abbott has convinced himself that any political lies he tells are for the greater good and therefore do not required penance.
Danny Lewis,
[Is Abbott still live blogging?
Someone should ask him whether he has recently met with Cardinal Pell]
😆 😆
but would m. turnbull to the opp., leader do to us ,
i know he was not popular before, i am wondering who the rednecks would go to
DL – all Australian PM‘s that I can recall have been *invited* (ie summonsed) to
see Murdoch when in the US. They all go one way or the other, ie in fear or
hope that he will assist them. Of course he wants stuff from them as well.
Cannot recall *any* refusing to met with him.
Why confession? Doesn’t this bit from the Lord’s Prayer cover everything?
[And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive them that trespass against us]
If the Godfather won’t forgive, why ask one of his minions?
my say: the rednecks would either vote informal or vote for an independent or fringe right wing party and preference the Libs like they always have.
Make no mistake, these angry bogans have probably never voted Labor except by accident 😉