Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  1. thanks It’s Time. So 53% say do little as possible or nothing. that just might be the TPP win for Libs at the next election.

  2. [So she can do anything she likes irrespective of anything she has said before as we have a hung parliament?]

    i will give up while i am ahead you would never ever convince a lib

  3. mod lib

    i dont think U understand the joining of the ind, at all.
    so if you dont heaven help your leader and if he had convinced them to go to him
    he wouldnt of chatted to them about anything he would of just treated them as an extension of his party

  4. … but if she gets rid of Tony, we will all be eternally thankful!

    No-one has more power to do that than the Liberals themselves, matey.

    Once more- Liberals waiting for Labor to clean up another of their incompetent messes.

  9. [So 53% say do little as possible or nothing. that just might be the TPP win for Libs at the next election.]
    Try:
    [At this stage there is no global agreement to reduce carbon emissions. Do you personally agree, or disagree that Australia should take action to reduce its carbon emissions before a global agreement is reached?]
    Total agree 72%.

  13. Due to the amount of misinformation regarding global warming, the government should start an education programme, including TV advertising. Climate science and peer reviewed material only to be used to form the TV ads. They should also examine the main arguments of the deniers. It would help inform why we need to price carbon and why opposition at this time it is so treacherous to all our futures.

  14. mysay

    even better than Hansard on line, this faciltity allows you to search for MPs speeches, including searching their speeches for particular words/phrases/topics:

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/guide/speech.w3p

    So, for example, if I want to find out what my local MP has said on paid parental leave, I just click on their name, click on Speeches, enter ‘paid parental leave’ in search section and put in a wide ranging date span e.g. 01/01/2000 to 10/10/2011.

    Within a very few seconds, every speech my MP has made mentioning those words pops up.

    It’s also very good for keeping track of MPs speeches on a daily basis – it usually has the Hansard up within less than 24 hours.

  16. [So she can do anything she likes irrespective of anything she has said before as we have a hung parliament?]
    You just don’t get it do you? Without negotiation the parliament we have doesn’t work.
    Tone would have to had change his policies if he wanted to be PM. It isn’t just black and white. Nice try though.

  18. [So 53% say do little as possible or nothing. that just might be the TPP win for Libs at the next election.]
    It may not to. The best way to overcome a fear campaign is to show, by introducing the scheme, that there is nothing to fear.

  19. JG needs to add a bit of electoral strategy to her current tactics (which I approve of 100%, incidentally) of taking the coalition head on.

    JG will get back to the Lodge in a canter in 2013 if she takes a lesson from Bracks and defends the urban-rural cross-subsidy principle.

    The LNP is built on a huge faultline that can’t hold in the long run: they have the Nats in their pocket, but they are utterly opposed, ideoloigcally, to funding rural infrastructure with urban Australia’s wealth . That there’s a massive contradiction for the ALP to exploit. The NBN, and the regional benefits of a CO2 price are GOLD for this agenda.

    Pushing this line has the added advantage of supporting the likes of Windsor and Oakeshott. They are winning on this contradiction already. The Nats are in fact bloody useless for the country, and its only a matter of time before all rural electorates realise it.

    The LNP and the media thus have this 100% wrong: Windsor and Oakeshott’s natural allies are NOT the conservative parties, with their free market rhetoric, but the ALP, which can at least countenance the idea of nation-building cross-subsidy to regional Australia, and state investment in infrastructure. Thats the only thing standing between regional AU and complete oblivion in the long run. The alliance of convenience with Gillard actually makes perfect sense when you consider the NBN, eg.

    This was one thing Bracks did quite well – hell, parts of country Vic even swung TO Brumby despite the monster overall statewide swing against the ALP.

    This is the ALPs hidden Ace. I hope they learn to play it.

  20. JG tells JB her coalition backbenchers tells her JB is history so only appropriate that she asks a question about the past.

  23. Mesma: If Kevin Rudd shouldn’t trust her why should the Australian people? full with death stare and JG says it is a surprise there aren’t any bent spoons after that performance.

  25. [Posted Monday, February 28, 2011 at 2:09 pm | Permalink
    If its good enough to get into a WAR without asking the permission of the people it is good enough to introduce a damn tax.
    ]

    and bring in national servie like the did and send us to vietnam dont for get that one
    and never evere eveeveeeeeeeeee r the gst

  26. It would be interesting to compare polling on this to when Howard introduced the GST.

    From memory, the GST wasn’t at all popular at any stage, but once it came in, it was clear it was irreversible, and people basically just got over it….and voted for Howard in increased numbers at the next election.

    I’d expect this to go the same way. Fall in government support, then we’ll move on to other things, and the next scare campaign won’t have as much bite.

    BTW, ModLib, every PM I can think of broke promises, introduced policies they hadn’t taken to the election, and usually for much the same reason – they couldn’t get what they wanted through Parliament otherwise.

    Howard didn’t deliver the GST he promised.

    People get over these things, particularly as they do understand that hung parliaments mean negotiation.

  29. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 39 seconds ago
    Abetz has just moved to censure the Govt in the Senate over it’s broken No Carbon Tax promise. #senateq]

  30. [Howard didn’t deliver the GST he promised.]

    I take your points about governments changing things, I have been around a few clicks and have seen that once or twice myself! Do you remember criticisms of the government at such times? I do, and fair enough as well (unless you are a PB tragic trying to explain it away and say that there was no backflip and Julia never said it).

    Let me ask you this:

    Would you be criticising Howard if he said the day before the 1998 election “I rule out a GST” and then introduced one less than a year later?

    Yes there were some modifications to the scheme he took to the election (but “took to the election” is the main point here, when he backed down on his “never ever” promise he took it to an election).

  32. [Labor will make the following goods and services GST-free:
    · Household electricity and gas supply.
    · Long-term caravan park and boarding house rentals.
    · Text books through an expanded subsidy.
    · Women’s sanitary products.
    · Cloth and disposable nappies.
    · Funeral services and pre-paid funerals.]

  48. i found the tea party one to but my security came up and told me to get out of there
    for fear of virus true so now i am doing a full scan

  49. ML You say you agree with the policy. Why not back it then?

    I expect it is because this is the line the Libs have decided is the best line of attack, so you are following this line. I imagine you are going to keep flogging this particular horse for as long as you think it can undermine JG.

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