Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  3. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    Penny Wong is honestly screaming at the liberal moderates telling them they should be ‘ashamed.’ ‘Where are the moderates?’ #senateqt]

    I find it very hard to imagine Wong “screaming”.

  9. [bennpackham Gillard repels death stare: I suggest Australians go to their kitchens and ensure their spoons aren’t bent (Turnbull laughs behind iPad) 19 minutes ago via Echofon ]

  10. [confessions
    Posted Monday, February 28, 2011 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Even Vex say Tony has wedged himself and says that Gillard actually wanted a fight.

    blue-green:

    Was it you or someone else who suggested Gillard had been playing ‘rope-a-dope’ with Tone? We’ll no doubt see how this pans out over time.]

    Not much doubt about that. It’s probably why she went to the string-puller, Jones, and took him on.

  11. Beazley’s opening gambit election speech on GST Rollback

    [And John Howard also promised the GST would be good for the economy, and wouldn’t hurt jobs.

    But more than 66,000 people have lost their jobs since the GST was introduced, and many more people are not getting the work they need to make ends meet.

    The GST has made the Howard Government the highest taxing government in Australian history.

    Bankruptcies have increased by 30 percent since the GST came in, and economic growth has more than halved.

    There wouldn’t be a small business in Australia that genuinely thinks the GST is simple.

    Well, with Labor’s plans to simplify the GST we are going to replace hours and hours of work with one simple calculation.

    As a pharmacist in my electorate said to me: “The changes you will make will give me back my weekends.”

    And we are going to stop them being used as unpaid workers for the Tax Office.

    Who in this country thinks that the GST is fair?

    Who, except John Howard and Peter Costello?

    And of course Amanda Vanstone. She even thinks it’s fair to tax funerals – you only die once, she says, so you may as well pay for the privilege!

    We don’t think the Howard Government’s GST is fair – and we are going to remove it from some of life’s essentials- from funerals, from women’s sanitary items, from charities helping people in emergencies, from children’s nappies, and from the rents paid by long term caravan park residents.

    And with electricity bills going up by more than 14 percent since the start of the GST, we will remove it from electricity and gas bills completely.

    Peter Costello has described our plan as ‘peanuts’. It may be peanuts for him, but ten percent tax off electricity and gas bills is not peanuts for pensioners, or families under financial pressure.

    Peter Costello does not want to see us take the GST off selected items to help families. He believes there should be no exemptions! He has said so.

    If my opponents are so opposed to our plans to make the GST simpler and fairer, let’s have a debate about it.]

    http://australianpolitics.com/news/2001/01-10-31d.shtml

    Do you all remember the debate about the GST textbooks, tampons, funerals etc?

  12. thats so funny,

    the night of the election was a long way from the negotations.

    o abbott is so silly asking this question.

    i wonder if he can remember this interview with kerry.

  16. [Gweneth
    Posted Monday, February 28, 2011 at 2:39 pm | Permalink
    ML You say you agree with the policy. Why not back it then?

    I expect it is because this is the line the Libs have decided is the best line of attack, so you are following this line. I imagine you are going to keep flogging this particular horse for as long as you think it can undermine JG]

    Gweneth,

    The trouble with you well meaning ALP supporters here, is your complete inability to show any objectivity. Oops- in big trouble now I know!!!!! Glen and I (and others) have repeatedly criticised “our side” when we thought it was warranted. Yet, so many here just consistently spout the ALP is perfect, everything Julia does is gold etc etc with no reflection on what is really happening.

    I have already said, I think Julia changed in the last month and has decided to be PM for a reason other than just being in power. She said she wouldn’t introduce a carbon tax, she is introducing a carbon tax, she deserves criticism. If she has the political courage to hold tight then I will hold her in higher esteem than I do at present (have also said this repeatedly here!).

    The little fact that many here are missing is that if Julia is so wonderful and Tony is so pathetic how is it that Tony is beating her?

  19. Julia’s tearing the unhinged one a new one. And doing it beautifully. And has sucked Pyne in to a one hour expulsion. And he is very slow in going.

  23. Cant watch much of QT today. Just seeing JG tearing Abboott anew one though. She is certainly up for this.

    Who’s the member for Cowan who just got chucked??

  26. vp,

    [JG is undressing TA is getting out the cricket bat ]

    Tone forgot to put his protector in before stepping up to the crease.

    Julia is bowling full tosses straight towards the groin region! 😉

  36. Abbott going for a sound byte / 6pm news moment. Its about all he’s up for given he’s bleeding all over the floor after that flaying by the PM.

  40. well its becauce he cannot win a scientic argument so want to waste time,
    but well it sounds good to his lot out there tony had a censure motion.

  45. [The little fact that many here are missing is that if Julia is so wonderful and Tony is so pathetic how is it that Tony is beating her?]
    As p[referred Prime Minister? Where?

  48. The polls will settle the coalitions way over the next six months. Fear campaigns win in the short term. However, PPM will remain with JG -“standing for something at last, even if we disagree”. The future mood will then depend on the state of the economy.Once details of the carbon tax are announced, a new fear campaign will commence. But the election will not be until Sept 2013 – and the fear will have been long washed away.The only issue will be – are we sick of this mob yet? And, for the Libs the central question will be – are we sure Tony will win for us?

  50. vp,

    [Libs will be down 2 on the vote. ]

    The rabbott had to bring this on earlier than he planned while there were still Members left on the Opposition benches!

    Albo got him! lol

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