Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 53 of 57
1 … 52 53 54 … 57

  1. vp,

    [scorps has the luxury of one T Gambaro, I trow. ]

    Nooooooooooooo!!!

    I couldn’t stand that. There’d be a quick shift to just about anywhere other than there.

    No, safely ensconced in the safe Labor seat of Capricornia.

    Local Member is Julia’s bestest friend! 😉

  4. So – to sum up the last week – the consensus that TA is nutter – confirmed. Consensus that JG is a master negotiator – confirmed.

  6. [No waffle, just an answer, please.]

    i asked the same when govt talked of reducing rebate on eye surgery, got no answer, that was about a year or more ago.

  7. News Update

    Julia has caved in , back flipped , Kevin rudd is fuming , health care goes backwards , labor waste expozed in another area

    polisy details , irelevent

  23. Rod Hagen and probably Victoria

    Are you able to provide me with any insight into how to contact a Spaniard by the name of Angel, lives in Lara, Victoria. Makes smallgoods.

  26. Mytwobobsworth,

    [Scorps I love your passion don’t ever lose it! Passion is very important in politics without that it is just a game.

    I have no time to waste on a game but plenty of time for passionate argument.

    I really enjoy your posts. ]

    Thanks for the vote of confidence. I enjoy yours too. Kindred souls? 🙂

    A good sense of humour helps a lot here. Some people here read things the wrong way at times or don’t pick up the nuance in my posts which sometimes comes back to give me a bit of grief.

    If I believe I’m right, I won’t take a backward step and if I’m wrong, I am man enough to admit it and apologise.

    But I refuse to personally denigrate anyone though. Their argument, yes! 😉

  29. ahem, Rod Hagen and probably Victoria

    Are you able to provide me with any insight into how to contact a Spaniard by the name of Angel, lives in Lara, Victoria. Makes smallgoods.

  37. Good on you Mad Dog.

    Had a larf at one of the local mums recently who has private health insurance.

    Recently decided that she would get an opertation done on here son throught the public system.

    She seemed quite surprised.

    Then agains she always seems quite surprised whenever she has to pay a gap for procedures.

    She is probably surprised that premiums go up 7% every year as well.

    I did not have the heart to tell her that the public system will be able to do it quicker because that particular surgery is not very profitable.

    Sadly, the majority of Australians think private health insurance actually rates health care as number one rather than profit.

    Mix the profit demon in health care and you get bad consequences all round.

  40. BK,

    [“A giant axe through bureaucracy” – a bit of a swipe at Kev, I think. ]

    He’s probably having a big tanty and slamming his folder open & shut in a frenzy! 😉

  46. Julia is starting to look like the person who gets things done (as opposed to the person who never wants to get anything done, just complain about it)

    Abbott carping and whingeing in the background about “backflips” is gonna look awful foolish and petty.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 53 of 57
1 … 52 53 54 … 57