The Sunday Mail has published one of the small-sample state polls occasionally conducted by the Advertiser stable, this one covering 515 respondents with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent. The poll suggests the government is suffering a garden-variety bout of third term malaise, with the Liberals leading 54-46 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote Labor scores just 31 per cent, with the Liberals on 45 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent. Given how badly the Liberals were short-changed at the election last March, that only represents a 2.4 per cent two-party swing – which, given a uniform swing and re-election of the three independents, would put Labor and Liberal on 22 seats each. However, that doesn’t take into account that a redistribution will follow before the next election, which the commissioners will have to conduct it in such a way as to achieve “electoral fairness”. They will have their work cut out for them.
Given Labor’s relative competitiveness on the two-party vote, Mike Rann is remarkably far behind as preferred premier, with Liberal leader Isobel Redmond leading 58 per cent to 31 per cent. Appropriately enough, the poll also inquired as to whom they would prefer in the saddle when Rann eventually gets around to deciding that 17 years as Labor leader is enough. Far and away the preferred candidate is Jay Weatherill of a Left faction that was sidelined in last week’s cabinet reshuffle, which saw the Right’s John Rau replace Kevin Foley as Deputy Premier. Weatherill was rated Rann’s preferred successor by 33 per cent against just 9 per cent for John Rau and a brace of also-rans ranging from 2 per cent 6 per cent.
Honestly! One can hardly believe these polls.
Mr Rann has assured us that he will lead us to the next election, that he has all our best interests at heart, and so on.
Just because certain interests by way of voters in Cheltenham, St Clair, Mt Barker, McLaren Vale, the Flinders Ranges, to name a few, feel a little put out about this and that.
I expect these 515 are coincidentally the disaffected minority.
I’m not sure ‘The Don’ would appreciate the likes of Jack Snelling being described as an “also-ran”.
[IT was hard to miss Jack Snelling at Adelaide University, where he emerged briefly as a campus identity nearly 20 years ago by manning a Pro-Life Club stall featuring plastic foetuses.
Snelling accused a fellow student Annabel Crabb of “Stalinist tactics” for criticising his display of replica foetuses. Crabb, a political columnist and ABC journalist, responded that abortion was a complex decision for many women and “for a sanctimonious outsider … to shove a plastic foetus replica in her face … is intrusive, damaging and disrespectful.”
“We write to defend the use of plastic foetuses by the Pro-Life Club,” Snelling responded. “Ms Crabb claims that many women who have had abortions will find the foetus disturbing. If as she argues abortion is moral, why should this be so?”
That year, he raised questions about the provision of IVF services in light of a limited health budget following the birth of IVF triplets to a 52-year-old mother.
He has remained deeply engaged in the bioethics debate, describing research on human embryos in 2003 as “techno-barbarism” and “a path to moral anarchy”. Nevertheless, the Sunday Mail frequently identified him as among the least talkative MPs in terms of parliamentary contributions.
But he always attracted powerful and loyal supporters including Michael Atkinson, John Quirke and former Adelaide Review editor Christopher Pearson, who he later sponsored to convert to Catholicism.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/views-of-snelling-spawned-at-uni/story-e6frea83-1225992941939
crikey whitey,
I think we might be in furious agreement. But Michael Atkinson assured us all that it was good and proper that the perfectly good St Clair reserve be taken from the public and given to Big Developers while us plebs got the contaminated land of the old Actil factory site.
That was one thing trying to sell off The Parks to big developers was the ultimate disgrace.
[A budget decision to close the Parks Community Centre in Adelaide has been defended by the South Australian Government.
That is despite Labor campaigning to keep the centre open when it was in opposition.
The local Labor member says he supports the closure, even though a replacement centre will offer fewer services.
Back in 1996, past Labor premier Don Dunstan spoke out against a closure of the Parks High School, then a fundamental part of the north-western suburbs community centre.
“To close the centre of the activities in these facilities is obscene socially,” Mr Dunstan said at the time.
Current Premier Mike Rann also spoke out back then.
“What we are seeing in South Australia at the moment is a fundamental assault by a Liberal government on the western suburbs of Adelaide,” he said.
Now 14 years later, a Labor government is closing the rest of the centre and selling the land for an estimated $17 million.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/28/3023573.htm
More disgusting background on you know who is new. Ish.
Christopher Pearson, indeed!
All the better reason, to wonder about Labor.
Not that I have confidence in the Liberal option.
And yes, it sure as hell looks like you are a troll, Adam.
Not in “furious agreement”. Adam.
Who are you operating for?
[crikey whitey
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 2:51 am | Permalink
Not in “furious agreement”. Adam.
Who are you operating for?
]
St Bob and the Tofu Munchers of course.
And who may they be, Frank?
[7
crikey whitey
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 2:59 am | Permalink
And who may they be, Frank?
]
The Greens 🙂
[Who are you operating for?]
Are you serious? No one. Unlike some on here I’m not wedded to a party.
Disappointing response but should’ve been expected really.
So sorry to disappoint, Adam.
[If only I had known.]
Don’t worry I don’t think that person is sane. I’m a lefty and have used far worse terms to describe Tony Abbott on here than any Labor politician. The ALP might be a crumbling and morally bankrupt edifice these days as they move to the Right at a rate of knots but they’ll still always be better than the Libs (even if only at the margins).
Take what the foot soldiers say on here with a very large grain of salt.
[crikey whitey
Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 3:14 am | Permalink
So sorry to disappoint, Adam
]
Put it thios way – he only posts when he has something that is Anti-ALP – cops the usual, and slinks away when he is caught out.
He doesn’t engage like the others.
Can Frank and Adam please take their depressing exchange to the main thread.
I’m a lefty and so on. What absolute rubbish.
Foot soldier, I will be looking out for you.
What is truly amazing is that you started off in what seemed to be a rational perspective.
And descended into madness.
I would hate to meet you in the street.
Or anywhere, really. Even on line, if you would not mind.
Sorry, William.
I am probably not helping.
Why are we getting so many small sample polls. Surely with an error marging of 4to 4.5 percent. Surely they are of little valus but make good headlines.
Some of the above comments by the elite of Australian psephology may go some way to explain the doldrums of the Australian political landscape at this time.
Moving on, there is little doubt Rann’s government is in terminal decline, but the real questions are whether whomever takes over can arrest the slide, and whether they can lead the ALP to victory in 2014.
Even though Right Faction convert Rau is the new Deputy Premier, he is by no means a shoe in for the top job. The SDA who run the SA ALP (and thus, this state), want their new pin up boy, former SDA staffer and now Treasurer, Jack Snelling, as head cheese. They will wait and judge circumstances before they make a decision. If the ALP looks likely to lose the election, expect Rau to be the chump to take charge of the train wreck. If they’re looking good and Snelling makes a go of the Treasury, he could be catapulted over the ambitious Rau when the SDA decide it is time to give Rann the flick, which is expected to be in around 12 months. Snelling is still in his thirties and has time, and the SDA, on his side.
As William said, the redistribution based on SA’s crazy electoral fairness laws (which it should be added was conjured this way also to try to eliminate pesky independents) will mean the goalposts will shift so making seat by seat analysis even more difficult.
Having said that, one can be fairly certain to say two of the three independents are safe.
Don Pegler in Mt Gambier has already entrenched himself thanks to ALP government decisions such as privatising plantation timber resources, local Liberal Party infighting and the fact his seat can change little being bordered by Victoria and the sea.
Dr Bob ‘Screaming Lord’ Such in the southern suburbs has been re-elected safely through many redistributions and this ex-Liberal will stay put until he chooses to retire, which as he will be almost seventy at the next election, could be then. His seat, depending on the redistribution, would almost certainly go Liberal without him.
Geoff Brock in Frome is in a precarious position. What happens to his seat is anybody’s guess, but it could be pulled in such ways as to lose his Port Pirie heartland and make it a safe Liberal seat again. The local Liberals are also targetting him next time on the issue that as he has yet to vote against any ALP legislation (I am told) and it will be interesting to see how he handles such scrutiny.
Of the metro seats the Libs need to win to gain government, ignoring the impacts of the redistribution, four would have gone if this current poll’s results had occurred last election, and three of the new marginals also.
Assessing the current status of the five most marginal from 2010:
Chloe Fox in Bright on 0.4% may only be saved if her seat’s boundaries head south and/or east into safer ALP territory (they can’t go west being on the sea). She can thank the Liberals divided campaign for her win there last time, but her eccentric persona is starting to wear a bit thin with the locals and her failure to be elevated to cabinet in the latest reshuffle points to her being considered too great a risk. On balance, her seat should change hands.
Newly promoted Tom Kenyon in Newland will be facing a stiff fight, regardless of his boundaries. Hanging on in 2010 with a 2.2% margin, helped by the Liberals’ curious choice of reheating former once popular local Federal MP Trish Draper whose presence ensured the Liberals spent more time defending her preselection than attacking the government. This semi-rural seat and environs are really Liberal territory and as one local Liberal put it, he is more conservative than most Liberals, so it is a good fit. However, with the local Councils now holding large numbers of talented and ambitious Liberals, I think his time will be up.
Leon ‘Biggles’ Bignell in Mawson also campaigned brilliantly to improve his position. Again, the local Liberals helped by not presenting with the best possible candidate and their campaign was arguably the weakest of any of their marginals, but all credit to Mr B and his 4.1% margin. As this seat is half small farms and half mortgage belt with new greenfield sites burgeoning of brick veneerial disease growing in the area, this has to be too close to call.
Hartley is centred on Adelaide’s little Italy. Left Faction MP Grace Portolesi held it against recycled former MP Joe Scalzi, and Ms P (whose husband is Advertiser reporter, Miles Kemp) only lost a bit of her support to now hold a 2.3% margin.
One of only 3 women in Cabinet, any boundary changes could be critical as more conservative territory awaits south and east, whilst more friendly areas are to the north. Too close to call.
Of the five seats the Liberals failed to win, Light was the most galling. Former local Mayor Tony Piccolo increased his majority from 0.1% to 5.3% against a lacklustre local Liberal candidate and even secured an amazing 48.5% of the primary vote in what is a semi-rural electorate. This can be mostly attributed to his staggering work ethic and passion. The term ‘hard working local MP’ has been done to death, but Piccolo is the hardest working of them all. As this area is also subject to massive new residential development, some of which has been approved against massive local resistance, the government is unloved in this Gawler centred electorate. The new boundaries are unlikely to worry the former Left Faction now unaligned, Piccolo much, but how the government is travelling will. For a tip, expect him to resign from the ALP and run as an independent next time – and keep the seat. You read it here first.
It is no secret many sitting ALP MPs will be retiring at the next election, with some more going who have yet to announce their departure. Now former Treasurer Kevin Foley has been demoted, the ALP are hoping he hangs on until the next election to stave off popular local Mayor (and former Liberal Party member) Gary Johanson going for his safe Labor seat. The ALP know the Mayor will win it in a byelection.
Accident prone former Attorney General Michael Atkinson announced he would not renominate for his seat straight after the state election but lately has been more vague in his answers on this. Michael Wright in Lee will certainly not contest again, and no one over the age of five believes Mike Rann will last until the next election. Other MPs who are rumoured to be retiring include Pat Conlon, John Hill, Robyn Geraghty, Steph Key and Lyn Breuer which will have an impact on the outcome of the next election as many are in marginals.
Other seats are now marginal after the 2010 election such as Florey, Colton, Ashford, Wright, Mitchell (won by the ALP from a lefty Independent after the Liberals ran a big budget campaign in an unwinnable seat) and Elder, with another six or so seats not much safer than marginal. It is difficult to see the ALP successfully running such a huge number of marginal campaigns after a third term if the Liberals are well organised and united.
As the Liberals haven’t been united since the 60s, anything is possible, and even the pessimistic ALP people I know still think they can win as the Liberals won’t be able to help themselves but implode again at some time.
Even though Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond has them apparently holding hands and singing Kum Ba Yah at the moment, she is sitting on a ticking time bomb of factional warfare, she will be over sixty at the next election and fails to come across well on TV (in person she holds herself excellently). The one benefit the Liberals have is they hold no seats the ALP has any serious chance of winning unless the redistribution throws up a real wobbly, so their marginal seat campaign can be concentrated on winning, not holding.
Locally, the Greens may be enjoying an apparent surge of support in the polls, but as happened in Victoria, this will evaporate once more scrutiny is put on their policies and their soft votes will go elsewhere – mainly to the ALP but perhaps independents. Also, their organisation is quite weak and they struggle on their campaign logistics in all but their strongest seats. Their strongest vote is in the Adelaide Hills but they have no hope of knocking off the Opposition Leader in Heysen or any of the nearby seats, but they will almost certainly outpoll the ALP in one or two of these seats at the next election.
To finish, I still believe it will be tight at the next state election even though logic would indicate the Liberals should win. I think the jack in the box in SA at the next state election may be the emergence of two or three surprise independents who will win seats and with the current ones, potentially hold the balance of power.
Hopefully, if this happens, they don’t use up their goodwill credit on rambling speeches!
So where is this place called South Australia?
I am sure I have heard of it before….just can’t place it…
For what its worth, I agree with (Dio on other thread). Thats right he comes from there!
I would read this albeit small poll as a wonderful relief if I were an ALP hack: just roll the premier and sandbag in preparation for an anti-ALP re-distribution (to provide a semblance of one (wo)man one vote) and the ALP could definitely win the next election from this midterm position.
If an 8% win on TPP gives the Libs the same number of seats as ALP something is seriously wrong!
Independent Thinking, thanks for the good seat summary. Labor is really only in governmetn in SA because the Liberals screwed up their last campaign and pre-selections almost as badly as Labor screwed up the Federal one. Without a change in trend Labor will lose the next SA state election.
I think Rann’s approval rating shows that he is obviously no longer a positive as leader, but who to replace him with? If the Labor right was rational, they would install Weatherall and keep a tight leash on him in Cabinet. But they are so far gone in their megalomaniacal thinking that they have to have “their” man in charge, even if it costs the party the election. As a minimum, it is time to start giving potential successors a higher public profile adn a chance to shine. IF a change is needed, there is no point leaving it till too late, as with the Gillard switch. Meanwhile, The March to Folly, SA chapter, rolls on.
I can’t help wondering, thinking about the polls, what effect the SA public service cuts are having on Labor? It would only take another -1% to tip them out.
IT
I’m told Snelling is definitely out as Premier. He is way too DLP-loopy. He can’t even answer if he thinks women should have the right to have an abortion. The press would make mince-meat of him.
Rau will be next, unless it looks really bad and definitely unwinable and then the Right would ask Weatherill to save them.
I agree with Independently Thinking. The Rann leadership is in terminal decline and there’s no way he can recover. The question that is on the electorates mind is succession.
The other thing is that there has been no reporting of the factional infighting going on inside the Liberal Party since the end of the election (when Redmond gathered the team around the campfire in April/May), mostly because the focus is squarely on who will replace Mike Rann.
I think Redmond benefited significantly from what was happening Federally with Abbott and Rudd and it will be interesting to see what would happen in the SA Liberals if Abbott were replaced in the next year or so.
All that considered, 3 years is an awfully long time in politics and we simply don’t know what things will be like in South Australia in 2014. Remember, in June 2009, the polls were showing 58-42 Labor’s favour and look how quickly it changed.
Out of curiousity I went to the ABC Elections page and compared the 2010 SA state election House of Assembly results with the %s recorded at this poll.
Here is the comparison.
ALP ….. Election 37% ….This poll 31% …. Down 6%
Lib [plus Nat] … Election 44% …. This poll 45%…..Up 1%
FF …..Election 5% ….This poll 4% ……Down 1%
Greens ….Election 6% ….This Poll 14% …..Up 8%
Others/Inds …. Election 6% …..This poll 5% ….Down 1%.
Now what is the standout change?
Independently Thinking has provided an absolutely brilliant appraisal of the SA elec toral scene. His tip on Piccolo is intriguing.
The chances of either Rann or Redmond being leader of their respective parties at the next state election is minimal.
It looks like the redistributions in SA are the year after the election so it will be this year that Australia`s most interesting redistribution process gets used.
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/news/?sectionID=13
Just a bit of a weather “heads up”.
There is a low pressure system (currenty called Invest 97S) expected to develop on the north WA coast over the next couple of days.
The current “Euro” model projection has this developing into a tropical cyclone, following the coast around, and hitting Perth on Sunday 20th Feb (ie next Sunday).
See the image
” rel=”nofollow”>here and the Storm2x forums page at http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=110385
A long way out of course, but the Euro model has been uncannily accurate with the cyclones off WA this year.
Mod(est) Lib
The ALP hacks, as you call them, I’ve spoken to are mixed in their reactions – but mostly are pretty comfortable as you say. As per Rann’s tirade today, they are blaming the Sunday Mail for being biased against them (yawn) but in reality, the fact the Liberals are not ahead almost to NSW proportions must be a concern to the Liberals who are playing a ‘small target’ game. The redistribution is a lottery and is no certainty to help one side or another, but it is possible it may do its job and create even more marginals. Thanks TTFAB for the link.
Dio – Jack is definitely still in the mix. The left of the party despise him and even the non-SDA right but as I said earlier, there is time for him and his mentors are pulling the strings. He will improve, trust me. I can not say that the Right will never ask Weatherill to take over, but it is their position of last resort, if they think they’re cactus. The fact that SOG is so apparently popular is a mystery to me – he does present well in the media, but he has voted in cabinet to support every dumb decision the State ALP have made, so what will be the difference? Well, I suppose Julia is like that too really, so it is all about perception.
Fredex – the polls look great for the Greens for now but I cannot see this being sustainable in the longer term – see what happened in Victoria. Also, unlike in Victoria, the Greens have no hope of winning a lower house seat. For those that don’t know, in SA the Greens strongest demographics are in the Adelaide Hills, all seats held by the Libs, so they won’t be helped by any anti-ALP sentiment. The two Green MLCs Mark Parnell and Tammy Franks (elected with the surname Jennings, nee Matthews) are not the best of friends and it’s anyone’s guess how long before ex-Democrat Franks walks.
The Liberals here gain very little, if anything, from preferencing the Greens in the Lower House and I expect the Libs here to copy their Victorian brothers. The Greens here would also never preference the Liberals ahead of the ALP, just too many old Trots in the SA Greens.
Sykesie – is probably correct. Redmond’s chances of staying on as Opp Leader are totally dependant on her controlling the rabble she leads. The question is – who would be a realistic leader in her place? Of the 18 Lower House MPs, all of them probably think they are leadership material, but IMHO newly elected Stephen Marshall in Norwood is top value and would be very popular with voters as leader, but then again the Liberals are no guarantee of doing anything remotely logical.
As stated by Socrates, the Libs screwed up the last election in almost every conceivable way. Unless they completely change their past behaviour, they are odds on to do the same again. The ALP are banking on it.
[The chances of either Rann or Redmond being leader of their respective parties at the next state election is minimal.]
You’re correct on Rann. But, at this point, I’d favour Redmond to stay on as leader. The Libs are playing a similar game that the NSW opposition are playing and staying out of the spotlight, unless they need to enter it. They know the next election is theirs to lose and they know they have a long history of doing it.
As has been pointed out on this thread, SA ALP’s position is nowhere near as dire as the NSW branch. O’Farrell needs only stand there with his arms open, waiting for the landslide to come. Whereas Redmond probably could be handed a majority but it would probably be of about 25 or so seats. The Libs (should) know that they need to win big to be able to win a second term (the SA Libs hold it together like a house of cards and SA Labor are great at springing back on their feet.)
Three years is a long time in politics. But this poll is likely to correctly reflect the mood of the electorate (regardless of MoE.) The government has left a bad taste in people’s mouths, its ambitious well of ideas has started to dry, its once indestructible unity is crumbling and even its integrity is starting to be questionable. It is the Liberals’ to lose – a phrase that is apt because if there is one thing the SA Libs are good at, it’s losing elections that should be theirs.
The Libs might be “staying out of the spotlight”, but that’s only because they are being aided and abetted by the Murdoch Gutter Rags over here.
It is clear from their editorial line that The Advertiser/Sunday Mail are unimpressed with the rise and rise of the Catholic Mafia in the state ALP. It’s just as evident that they want to see Weatherill as leader of the ALP.
I think they are playing a waiting game. If the ALP move to install anyone else but Weatherill, expect them to come out with all guns blazing against the ALP. If, however, Labor Unity (read Don Farrell) choose to support Weatherill as leader (highly unlikely), expect the Murdoch rags to be full of Libs leaderships tension and other stuff that undermines and destabilises them.
The next 12 months will be interesting, if nothing else.
chinda
[It is clear from their editorial line that The Advertiser/Sunday Mail are unimpressed with the rise and rise of the Catholic Mafia in the state ALP. It’s just as evident that they want to see Weatherill as leader of the ALP.]
In fairness to the papers, that would be the view of most people who follow politics in SA.
*ooh! The apostrophe queen made a mistake! Lib’s leadership tension, I meant.
If the Greens get in the vicinity of their 2010 SA Senate vote (13.30%) in the SALC in 2014 then they have a good chance at a second/third seat for that election/in total.
http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-15508-SA.htm
Dio – yes, that is true, but my point (and I probably didn’t make it well) is that the journos are also well aware of problems in the Libs but are choosing not to report them at the moment.
But if their “preferred Premier” was there, the gloves would be off.
I like the Libs where they are right now. With moderate, rational leadership (despite the Lib Right being behind Redmond) will highlight how ridiculous the state ALP have become, especially getting into bed with the religious nutters. (The religious nutters in the state Lib party are slowly but steadily defecting to Family First)
[If the Greens get in the vicinity of their 2010 SA Senate vote (13.30%) in the SALC in 2014 then they have a good chance at a second/third seat for that election/in total.]
Indeed. If similar results occured in the LC race that occured in the Senate race, my back of the envelope calculation says 4 ALP, 4 Lib, 2 Grn and 1 FF. By no means is that a prediction but yes, it is certainly possible.
Independently Thinking,
Jacks Mentors are like minded as well!Even within his own sub branch some members aren’t happy!
Has the other independent in the upper house (Dignity for Disability) done anything notable?
The RAnnbo Government in this state is an absolute disgrace. The Right Faction would rather lose the next election than put a popular replacement leader in Like Jay. Rannbo has lost the rusted on ALP voters of the past, turned his back on every union except the SDA and WILL be chucked out on his arse at the polls. I was in SA Parliament last week and was totally stunned by the lack of the absolute basics that the new treasurer has. I never thought I would ever say this, but the ALP need Foley back as Treasurer asap. If this government put as much effort into running the state at the missmanagement of their party factions we might get back into the Black. Although Snelling freely admitted he had no idea how long it would take the state to reduce its debt… the most basic thing he should have in the front of his mind. The experienced Ian Evans made mince meat out of him with every question. Rann this morning in a live radio interview even had the cheek to dismiss this poll saying years ago that the Sunday Mail had written the results before they had conducted a poll in a pathetic effort to discredit it. If you live here, follow politics CLOSELY and are not biased by your political affiliation then you can not help but constantly have you head in your hands in disbelief at what this mob are getting away with. 1123 days till the next election, but who is counting, many of US!
YOu can not compare the Federal Senate % for the Greens with the SA Leg Co….we have a different party list system so it simply does not translate.
To be fair the Sunday Mail does have a very average history in political polling, you cant expect to run such an amatuer outfit and then be surprised when anyone who gets a bad poll from it attacks the credibility of your poll in the media. I guess it’s part of the incentive to actually have a decent polling reputation and not do stuff like writing the results before the poll. Also you seem shocked that a pollie brushed aside a poll question..
That said, why couldn’t you use the Fed senate % as a base for the leg co, sure the quota’s are different, but the mechanics and vote transfer is close enough to be as good a guide as anything.
Also (discussed 20 or so above) the redistribution will not happen this year. The federal boundaries review is this year (although will produce very little change, a few boundaries will move at the borders). The State boundaries commission cannot commence until 48 hours after the election, ie March 2012. This means we wont know which seats will be the tightly contested ones until perhaps 16-17 months before the election.
[YOu can not compare the Federal Senate % for the Greens with the SA Leg Co….we have a different party list system so it simply does not translate.]
Not at all. If the SA population are capable for voting those numbers before, they are capable of doing it again.
While, of course, it does depend on independent preferences and what not, it is a fair guess to say the Greens could get 2 seats with 13.3% of the primary vote (1.596 LC quotas)
[(although will produce very little change, a few boundaries will move at the borders).]
I agree with that for the most part as most seats are currently “safe”
However, it is possible, due to the movement down south, that Boothby may end up becoming tighter for the Libs, or even notionally Labor. Have to wait and see. Otherwise, yes, no real difference.
[IMPARTIAL observers might have been bemused at the Rann Government’s fall from grace in recent times because, at least on paper, it’s hardly the least competent state (or even federal) administration going round at the moment.
Nonetheless, the polls have it treading water below Gillard territory and rapidly heading south into the unenviable Keneally zone.
———————-
Which is all very well, but for the fact that Labor has been happy to garb itself in the positive PR spin of these projects. For now, it appears the PR spin is all we had and the Emperor has been found to have no change of clothes.
The Rann Government’s current malaise is not due to the administration being an unmitigated failure; rather, it is a victim of its own spin. It has promised more than it could deliver, more perhaps than it intended to deliver. And thus, it is now judged against the lofty rhetoric of its first term, rather than the credible achievements of its third.]
http://indaily.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/state-politics-rhetoric-versus-reality/
Yes, Adam, it is a well written article by Tom Richardson. Pity the Tiser doesn’t have anyone doing politics of his calibre. Greg Kelton stuggled with record reviews, from whence he graduated to that of political reporter in the Murdoch Empire.
For those still reading this thread, my latest intelligence is that Snelling has already been written off by his SDA mates (mirroring Dio’s earlier post) and there is real concern he may have to be replaced already. This is coming from his SDA faction. Foley will not be making a comeback but do not be surprised if Wetherill is offered Treasury when Rann gets the boot in about 12 months. If he declines it, the Right will write him off. There’s another exclusive for the PB!
A bit harsh on Greg Kelton, whose long career as a reporter and sub-editor has included a stint in Brisbane and record reviewing as a sideline.