Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. Bushfire Bill

    [ “So the whole thing’s a fraud, is it?”]

    That would have to have been that know it all smart arse jumped up ego maniac George Moore. He just loves saying his Dad was a “Labor man” but our George saw the light.

    One day I will post what I really think about the mongrel!

  2. Abbott:

    Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott earlier accused state Labor leaders of falsely orchestrating a tough negotiation for the benefit of the Prime Minister.

    “I think it’s pretty clear from what the premiers have said on the way in about this deal being very difficult to come by that they’re trying to carefully stage-manage this to look like it’s some kind of a victory for the Prime Minister,” he said.

    This man hasn’t got a positive bone in his chimpanzee-like body, has he? The whole thing’s a fake to make the PM look good. That’s perhaps they way he’d do things, I guess.

    Seeing as there are 2 Liberal Premiers, I suppose they’re supposed to be the flies in the ointment?

    Except they weren’t.

    Are they there to make Julia look good too?

  4. BB
    That’s it
    [And a kick in the something elses for Abbott.]

    Yep kick in the polls for Jules and a
    Kick in the pills for toxic.

  6. Julia looking gorgeous on the ABC lead story. Maybe she is the one the break the cynicism of all of us. National health reform – who would have thought it?

  7. Um…

    What’s the gist of this new health deal?

    Why should I be excited?

    Does it end the cost-shifting game?

    Will it get rid of the managerial culture that’s taken over so many hospitals?

  12. [Well if you’re going to publicly accuse me of making stuff up, I’d appreciate you publicly identifying just what you have difficulty with.]
    Try
    [ I bet Colin Barnett has come out of this Agreement far worse off than under Rudd’s!

    Serves the partisan, policy saboteur right. I bet Jules said to him every time he tried to screw her, that the amount for WA will keep reducing!]
    Please specify where Barnett is worse off. And please provide evidence on how treated Barnett.

  14. The premiers, going in, were whining about another level of red tape, loss of money cf Rudd deal, loss of control. None of this stuff came out at the presser. Julia is awesome.

  20. Mad Dog

    I suspect it has something to do with Fred Hollows being a charity.

    Labor has been in for four years and looked at health costs extensively. I’m sure that Labor, Roxon and Gillard are in complete agreement with your thoughts on health care costs. That would explain why their health reform is addressing all of your concerns.

    Now that Labor has fixed the system by clamping down on greedy doctors, I’m going to have to sell my Picasso’s and Goya’s to finance my lifestyle.

  22. NBN. tick. Health. tick. Parental leave. tick. Afghanistan War, neutralized as an issue, tick (in fact, because of Abbott, a slight plus). Intervention. A very small partial tick.

    Leaving a formidable to-do list: Regional Refugee Centre in Timor L’este. Flood reconstruction package. Pokies reform. MDB reform. Program management standards. Mining tax. And the dousy of all dousies: price on carbon.

  27. vp I echo your comment, Julia has topped off a magnificent week for herself and the Govt.
    Surely this time labor will get a boost in the polls, they deserve it for damn hard work and good Govt.

  30. Liberal premiers understand the importance of health reform. Tony Abbott does not. More self interest besting national interest. Donate to Tony to help fight the Great Big New Agreement!

  33. Well, obviously, Labor will get hammered in October 2013, or not. Still, a little 🙂 now would be nice.

    Tomorrow’s headlines will show who’s who.

  34. [Please specify where Barnett is worse off. And please provide evidence on how treated Barnett. ]

    And that’s the best you can come up with. Bwaaaaaaaaaaa lol 😉

    Better you move on to easier pickings because I ain’t in the mood to be baited in such a feeble manner.

    The fish aren’t biting on this part of the pond, sorry. But I will keep it in mind as things unfold over the next weeks or so.

  37. [Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott earlier accused state Labor leaders of falsely orchestrating a tough negotiation for the benefit of the Prime Minister. ]
    Yep, Barnett has been holding out for 12 months so that he can make Julia look good. And Ted was giving dire warnings too for Julia’s sake. Is anyone expected to believe this tripe?

  38. [What’s the gist of this new health deal?

    Why should I be excited?

    Does it end the cost-shifting game?

    Will it get rid of the managerial culture that’s taken over so many hospitals?]
    Very good questions. Let’s wait for the mutual backslapping at COAG and here to die down before we expect substantive answers to them.

  39. Poll. Scmoll. Agreements like this do not come round every day. Forget the numbers – this is real leadership – front, square and centre.

  41. [2318

    David

    Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    In 30 years of broadcasting William, I have never heard anything like that rubbish John Michael gushed. How can a radio station justify its license employing clowns like that?
    ]

    JM-H WAS Clown in Adventure Island 🙂

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