Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar,

    [scorpio

    Why so sad? ]

    I think that Presser this morning made me realise that since July last year, I have been watching a slow motion train wreck.

    Possum’s graphs just reinforce that Labor is like the duck swimming upstream.

    Calm and confident on top and paddling furiously underneath and getting nowhere.

  4. scorpio

    the President of the AMA says the health proposal is good. He is the same person who rubbished Rudd’s proposals.
    I think you are being unduly negative.
    You can tell me off all you like next week, if this health deal falls through.

  7. Boerwar

    I think Roxon is being interviewed on radio

    [LATIKAMBOURKE | 39 seconds ago
    Roxon on AM – Q:Kevin Rudd said that the buck-passing will end, does the buck now end with you? Roxon ‘That’s not language that I’ve used.]

  10. bg

    The AMA would see

    1. More guaranteed health funding
    2. Promises of more clinician input
    3. Status quo for GPs

    and be happy to support it.

  12. vic

    [the President of the AMA says the health proposal is good. He is the same person who rubbished Rudd’s proposals.]

    The AMA strongly supported RuddHealth.

  13. [I think that Presser this morning made me realise that since July last year, I have been watching a slow motion train wreck.

    Possum’s graphs just reinforce that Labor is like the duck swimming upstream.

    Calm and confident on top and paddling furiously underneath and getting nowhere.]
    Nothing like the truth.

  17. The PM is doing what she does best. Changing persona would be just plain silly. The LotO is doing what he does best, the only persona he has.

  21. Scorpio there is nearly three years to go.

    for goodness sake Howard was never in front most years prior to elections.
    I remember think ah great we will do it this time all year labor where just in front re cream and Beasley,

    so its the same scenario

    and thats not me just saying that i have seen BH say it often and she knows a lot more than i.

  23. my say,

    [Scorpio there is nearly three years to go. ]

    Yes there is My say and I hope they do something useful with that time because it runs out very quickly.

  25. Example of a journo stretching to make criticism as it’s in her training/employment to do so.
    Gillian Bradford: the ordinary patient won’t understand this new system.
    Julia Gillard: the ordinary patient won’t care where the money comes from. They just want to get treatment for their illness.

  27. gary thats not like you,

    i think scorpio is unduly neg. did you read the possum graph something about libs havent moved since the election and its the green and ind. that have the extra percentage points

    i was very surprised to read that was it wed.

  29. Recent events in the coalition have demonstrated why they are a policy-free zone. If they make any sort of policy decision then it will only open up the cracks in the party for all to see. Witness the division in the party on foreign aid. Who knows what other fissures were opened with the pseudo budget cuts.

    The policy-free Liberal Party is a consequence of the fact that they are only a collection of people whose only goal is to gain power.

  32. Scorpio,

    Hang in there. Things are going to get better. How do I know that?

    Because yesterday in question time and in today’s presser we go something more priceless than an army full of media gurus. What we got was a Julia who finally believes in herself and her right to hold the Prime Ministership.

    This will communicate itself over time and translate into improved polls. Julia is a fighter, but more importantly she is now a fighter who believes in herself and her cause.

    There will be no stopping her now.

  37. Ah, so we are still on 56/64 in reality and these are just outliers? 😉

    Geez, Scorps, I thought I was the official sad sack around here!

    You aren’t going to see a return to the heady days of old when anything less than 56/44 was a disaster.

    For one, I’m pleased to see Julia batting confidently, after a shaky start where she was lucky not to be dismissed for a duck.

    Abbott has just got himself out “Hit Wicket”, which is hard for the captain of a bowling side to do, but he managed it.

    There have been dropped catches, throws at wicket that failed to hit the stumps and a fight even broke out between the score-keepers. A close umpiring decision after a confident appeal during the election, and play was interrupted by rain (and flood and cyclone), but along the way a few boundaries and lately a couple of sixes have been hit.

    Cheer up man.

    The fact is that “waste” has been an issue, and still is. At the moment everything the government does is viewed through that lens, like it or not. To fail to accept this as a reality is to bury your head in the sand. Julia has to confront it, manage it and defeat it. She never lets a journo get away with a question prefaced by the “waste” scenario. That’s a start. But regaining enough of the public’s trust to win an election in their own right will all take time. About 1% extra should do it.

    Meanwhile Health is being decided on Sunday. There’s no point holding a presser on Monday. It has to be announced sometime, before the event, why not now?

    Julia was terrific today. She was across the detail, didn’t waffle on and cracked a few jokes. Didn’t take any shit from anyone and generally received courteous attention, on-topic.

    I reckon it’s been a blinder of a week for her.

  38. Hi Diogenes, if you are around, MD here.

    re Health expenditure.

    Over the past several years, commencing in 2002, I have personally managed, and with my employees, built comprehensive budgeting, forecasting and periodic reporting systems for three of the four largest private hospitals organisations in Australia. I have done a similar job for one of the top three pathology companies. I have also built, for one of the top three Health Insurance providers, a system that allows them to analyse, on an individual provider and item basis, the charge made, rebate and gap, of every line of every claim they receive, and identify, in league tables, those providers that are screwing the system to the greatest extent. This allows us, for instance, to identify those hospitals which keep new mothers, after a natural childbirth, in hospital longest, and allow for appropriate questioning of medical supervisors.

    I have a detailed knowledege of the costs and revenues involved in every Medicare item which ‘my’ hospitals and pathologists deliver.

    The main reason that medical related expenses in Australia are rising at a rate 3 or 4 times inflation is pure, unmitigated greed, which is not ameliorated by any effective competition.

    Why is it, do you think, that the Fred Hollows Foundation can carry out cataract surgery involving an IOL implant for $25 per operation, while an outpatients clinic at any private hospital charges $1400 plus? The price of the IOL itself has dropped from $193 per lens to $6.50 over the last 7 years. Nurses pay has gone up only 27% in the same period.

    The cost of the electronic blood analysis equipment use by pathology labs has dropped by orders of magnitude, just like notebook computers and flat screen TV’s. As a specific example a Luminex 200 is cheaper now (about $40,000) than a Luminex 100 was 4 years ago, and has a far greater capability. Wages of medical technologists (who do nearly all of the work) are abysmal, and the specialist pathologists rake in obscene amounts. GPs with any nous can do blood lipid readings in a short consultation, using equipment which costs less than four consultation fees to buy outright, and is every bit as accurate as the big pathologists. They don’t, of course. Can’t think why.

    Greed, pure and simple.

    cheers,

    MD

  40. you may all remember my close friends grand son, we where told three weeks ago there was little chance, the dr. in there mercy decided in Melbourne one more go at chemo and then not again.

    so the two tests came back to day the dear little thing is in remission,

    so the bone marrow can go ahead.

    my friend and i say its a miracle as we have both say a lot of prayers to Mary mac to intervene for us. so many people across the country have been praying for him even his beloved footy team members.
    others can please them selves what they think but to my school friend and i it is a prayer answered
    the mother and father realise there is a long way to go yet re the transplant
    so many more months of worry for them there is also a long waiting list for the transplant isnt that dreadful the waiting list i mean but a donar has been found for him.

  41. my say

    I was not aware about your friend’s grandson. All my very best wishes to him and his family. I hope the bone marrow op is a success, and he recovers. 🙂

  43. Mad Dog,

    that is what I am getting at. I want someone to pull health inflation into line with reality. Health expenditure rises is the real reason we aren;t spending on infrustructure et al.

  45. Scorpio
    [I think that Presser this morning made me realise that since July last year, I have been watching a slow motion train wreck.

    Possum’s graphs just reinforce that Labor is like the duck swimming upstream.

    Calm and confident on top and paddling furiously underneath and getting nowhere.]
    If I agree with you I will immediately be denounced by some as a niaive Rudd fan who cannot move on. So I will just say that your blind obsession with the observable facts has completely blinded you to the political spin. And no, I am not a Rudd fan.

    I still don’t think the Arbib/Bitar/Howe/Shorten factional heavies, and those who work for them, comprehend how much damage they did to Labor with the way the Rudd coup was done, the previoues ETS backflip, and then the election campaign. They saw it through their own lense of union control battles, pre-selection stackings, and NSW State politics. They don’t seem to realise that you can retain power, but if people no longer trust you, you will lsoe power in the next election. After all, Labor is only in government because three independents knew what Tonay Abbott as like. You would imagine Labor won in a landslide, the way some dismiss concerns about the party structure, policy direction and management style.

    That being said, this was a disastrous week for Tony Abbott. I’d bet a few of my favourite bottles of wine that the next polls will be better for Labor.

  47. [Gusface
    Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    bg

    dio emails ‘lots of nuts but only one Bolt” to alert him to your subterfuge]

    Apparently One Nation supporters don’t like being called nutters, stupid or racist!

  49. thank you vic he is 9 and this is his 3 bout of lukeimania.

    he said a couple of weeks ago all i want to do his grow and help people and play footy

  50. [Ah, so we are still on 56/64 in reality and these are just outliers?]
    Not at all and I don’t expect to see those figures again. Hell, I don’t want to see those figures again. They did Labor little good last time. People has very high expectations and were let down. Start with lower expectations and work up. They’re more sustainable. You talk of me being in fantasyland.

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