Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. sorry i didnt spell check i am so over come by this.
    i went to my friends place last friday and took tea for her her oh and fam in melbourne
    i really thought it was all over for them now this,
    i am so happy for him and them when you have a best friend from the day you start school its like family.

  3. my say

    my heart hurts when children are seriously ill. It really seems so unfair to me that they should suffer in this way. I pray that he does get his wish to get well and grow up.

  4. Space Kidette,

    [What we got was a Julia who finally believes in herself and her right to hold the Prime Ministership.

    This will communicate itself over time and translate into improved polls. Julia is a fighter, but more importantly she is now a fighter who believes in herself and her cause.

    There will be no stopping her now.]

    I hope you’re right. When she took on the job, I think she thought that she only had to deal with Abbott & the Opposition.

    It comes as a shock to also find you are having to deal with a national media which is owned by one person and who also owns about the same amount of Regional media.

    That same media plus a hostile ABC adds up to some challenge.

    And then she has to keep vested Indies on side and deal with the greens whose primary interest is to take votes from Labor.

    I’m not sure “which” Julia was confident she was up to the job, but the other Julia’s I have seen lately, don’t seem as confident or capable. 😉

    But hopefully, you are right and the polls are set to head towards their rightful level.

  5. [The fact is that “waste” has been an issue, and still is. At the moment everything the government does is viewed through that lens, like it or not. To fail to accept this as a reality is to bury your head in the sand. Julia has to confront it, manage it and defeat it. She never lets a journo get away with a question prefaced by the “waste” scenario. That’s a start. But regaining enough of the public’s trust to win an election in their own right will all take time. About 1% extra should do it.

    Meanwhile Health is being decided on Sunday. There’s no point holding a presser on Monday. It has to be announced sometime, before the event, why not now?

    Julia was terrific today. She was across the detail, didn’t waffle on and cracked a few jokes. Didn’t take any shit from anyone and generally received courteous attention, on-topic.

    I reckon it’s been a blinder of a week for her.]
    Hear, hear. She must be improving.

  6. I got this one published though. It might have confused people though.

    [Go Tony Go
    Fri 11 Feb 11 (09:07am)

    Abbott just has to go. He can’t control his mouth. He can’t control his temper.

    He can’t do decent costings. He can’t devise decent policy. Look at the PPL debacle. Levying business to pay for nannies. Is he for real?

    He ran in an election against the most incompetent and wasteful government in our history and lost.

    He won’t win next time.

    NEXT!!!!!!]

    With this response

    [Ancient Mariner
    Fri 11 Feb 11 (11:58am)

    Hey, Go Tony Go, I like that screen name! It reminds me of the cry when the crowd is really getting behind an athlete. I think it is what many of us are cheering with a completely different interpretation to you.

    You call the government “the most incompetent and wasteful government in our history” in an attack on Tony Abbott?

    I think the desperation of Labor’s “focus on Abbott” strategy is becoming more obvious everyday.

    After just seeing Julia dump Rudd’s ‘historic’ healthcare reforms I can understand why. Labor has nothing but confusion on offer.

    She also claimed that we have seen Abbott’s party ‘implode’. Wow! And yet Abbott is still the leader? I can’t help wondering how she would then describe the debacle for Labor when she knifed Rudd!

    Abbott’s doing fine and I am tipping will come out of this week even better positioned than before. It is this government that is on the verge of imploding and the Youth Allowance bill could just be the trigger.]

    And this one

    [pie finger replied
    Fri 11 Feb 11 (12:50pm)

    Go Tony Go,—you said}
    “He ran in an election against the most incompetent and wasteful government in our history and lost.
    So I guess you’ll be voting for the “the most incompetent and wasteful government in our history “ again?]

  8. [Gary

    Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    Mytwobobsworth 6501 – Keep fighting the faction war old son. If enough people hang on to this crap you’ll get exactly the thing you don’t want to see. You’ve acknowledged an improvement – go with it.
    ]

    I reckon the Gillard “Critics” secretly want an Abbott Govt – so they can feel relevant.

    Bilbo – That Luke wallidge article is a PPV article.

  9. [Go Tony Go
    Fri 11 Feb 11 (09:07am)

    Abbott just has to go. He can’t control his mouth. He can’t control his temper.

    He can’t do decent costings. He can’t devise decent policy. Look at the PPL debacle. Levying business to pay for nannies. Is he for real?

    He ran in an election against the most incompetent and wasteful government in our history and lost.

    He won’t win next time.

    NEXT!!!!!!]
    Brilliant. LOL

  11. scorps,

    Julia got shunted into this and got thrust into a crazy set of events, she didn’t have much going for her in terms of support, and I think she is one of those rare human beings whose talent far exceeded her ambition.

    I think the frustration for a lot of us is a bit like parents who have an exceedingly intelligent child who keeps coming home with poor report cards. You can see the potential and the brilliance but it is not being engaged.

    Up until know, I think in her own mind, she didn’t quite believe the situation she found herself in. But yesterday I knew that was gone. For the first time she was comfortable in the role, hell, I would go so far as to say she thrived on it.

  17. blue-green

    Just back on something you said yesterday re the ABC website.

    I also posted a comment on the denialist story which didn’t make it through – In the past I’ve noticed some trouble with comments that are critical of the articles and their authors. I wonder if the authors sometimes get to do their own moderation?

  21. [Think Big
    Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    blue-green

    Just back on something you said yesterday re the ABC website.

    I also posted a comment on the denialist story which didn’t make it through – In the past I’ve noticed some trouble with comments that are critical of the articles and their authors. I wonder if the authors sometimes get to do their own moderation?]

    My article was quite critical of the ABC more than the authors. Perhaps they don’t like being compared to holocaust deniers.

  23. [I wonder if the authors sometimes get to do their own moderation?]

    i was told last year by the abc when i ask the question that part time workers do that.

    now i wonder is that so.

  24. [This WA Senator doesn’t seem to understand that the game plan is to let it all die down a bit over the weekend]
    Don’t get between a pollie and a microphone.

  25. I’m fuming. The WA ABC news editor, Kim Jordan, has just been on radio agreeing with another guest that Julia’s emotional condolence speech was deliberately “styled” for political effect. This on top of Lauren Rosewarne’s scurrilous piece is just about the final straw. Of course, at the same time, it was poor Tony, terrible channel 7, how dare they take something out of context to try to trip him up. Well hello fella’s – didn’t hear you mention the content of the speech Julia gave – the heartrending details of loss – when she lost some composure. This man is an ABC news editor, and clearly shows just why the Government struggles to get a positive message across. I have made a formal complaint – latest in a long line, and expect the usual pap in response.

  28. My say,

    My thoughts are with you and your friend and the little one.

    I think you have misread my comments a bit. I have not been carrying a torch for Kevvie at the expense of degrading Jules.

    She’s got to carry the load herself and has a lot of expectations to meet.

    Unfortunately, she hasn’t met mine too well so far but agree with BB and a couple of others, that last week was a good one for her.

    Mustn’t mess it up though. The November 2007 comment was of the Fibs not Labor.

    Cheers, Scorpio.

  29. Come to think about it, Liberal leadership changes take soooo long. They do the slow roast – a complete waste of time and energy.

    OTOH, with Labor, it is in and out of the microwave overnight.

  30. [75 hairy nose]

    if you have talk back over there ring and mention it, and use something else re the reason you are ring ing it does work you know
    then you dont stop talking and talk over them very nicley then just go.

  32. dear scorpio

    may be i did miss read you, i think with a lot of positive thinking our Julia will prevail,
    for the sake of all and little children line my friends grandson she has to, she must

    thank you for your kind thoughts.

  33. [ tonytardio Tony Tardio
    Opposition leader TONY ABBOTT and Channel SEVEN journalist MARK RILEY shook hands after a news conference in Canberra this afternoon
    4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  34. A couple of quick comments on the polls.

    Taking the last Morgan phone and the Newspoll weighted for sample size and comparing the primary votes to the 2010 and 2007 elections yields:

    Polls: ALP 33 LNP 43.5 GR 13.3 OTH 10.2

    2010: ALP 38 LNP 43.6 GR 11.8 OTH 6.6

    2007: ALP 43.4 LNP 42.1 GR 7.8 OTH 6.7

    It’s pretty clear what is happening.

    The conservative vote is holding at around its last two election results and the ALP vote has fragmented to the Greens and Tony Windsor.

    At a 33% PV the ALP would lose an election, getting only about 48% of the TPP. It needs to re-claim those voters who have drifted away, but still have baulked at going to the LNP. I suspect Abbott has solidified the LNP vote, but to ensure he wins he needs to pull a few of those voters back as well. The ALP vote at 33% is below historic rock bottom (according to polling) it may be a new bottom, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    The Coalition think they can win with the votes as they are, and they would. But if the ALP can re-claim those lost voters by being a good govt, then they have every chance of winning the next election.

    Gillard knows this, as does Abbott.

  37. victoria,

    [Their ABC headlines

    Gillard’s health backdown ‘an absolute wipeout’ ]

    Julia will be pleased that she has the ABC on side now! 😉

  39. Bit late to the punchline on this one, but Annabel Crabb reminds me of this from the other day:

    [“No Opposition has ever had the guts to do this before!” declared Mr Hockey as the pair outlined their decisions in Canberra.]

    My headline on that would have been “Liberal spending cuts more radical than Fightback!: Hockey”.

  41. [But if the ALP can re-claim those lost voters by being a good govt, then they have every chance of winning the next election.]

    Exactly focus on policy and delivery of outcomes and the polls will take care of themselves

  43. thanks david.

    its the pressure for them dad here paying the mortgage, mum gave up work, over there and still bills to pay not a rich family at all, people complain about mcdonalds but my goodness me i think i should have burger every week for the free accommodation they they give to people like this family where would they be if they had also to pay rent.
    but this is a small thing to have their son back home with them when they leave Melbourne in some months.

    its the things that go with this we dont think about, for Tasmanians and people that cannot have precedures done in their home state.

    my friend has used up all her long service leave to fly backward and forward to help her daughter, i never stopped and thought about everything that goes with this till it was pointed out to me.

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