The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.
Other news:
• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.
• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).
• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.
• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.
• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.
blue-green
It depends on who is the most untrustworthy. Too many to pick from 🙂
[lizzie
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 4:10 pm | Permalink
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/43920.html
Rhys Muldoon has posted a completely fatuous piece on the Drum, supposedly a series of tweets between Julia and Tone (remember he was in Rudd’s corner). I hope he didn’t get paid for it.
]
Rhys should stick to hosting Play School.
Another Quiz (no googling)
Who once said this?:
[“There are people on the Right who argue forcefully for capitalism but yet would happily see the state intervene in matters of personal morality and values. Both approaches contain fundamental contradictions. The hypocrisy is palpable.”]
Frank
I hardly liked to draw attention to it, but I sorta wanted to expose his stupidity.
Blue_Green asked,
[Aristotle,
have you looked at the newspoll quarterly results to see which states or cohorts are ther ones that have drifted from the ALP?]
I posted this last December after the Newspoll quarterly results
[I just did a quick analysis of the Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and combining those results with Nielsen’s breakdowns and including a Galaxy from QLD and the two Westpoll results from WA shows that the result would still be a hung parliament with the ALP on 74 seats, picking a net of 2 seats. (using Mackerras’s most recent pendulum)
4 lost in NSW, 3 won in both QLD and WA.
This assumes all the Independents are re-elected.
Of course, it is possible that the ALP could win back Melbourne and Denison, which would give them 76 seats, and the Coalition could win back 1 or more of the Independents’ seats depending on who stood again and if they could regain O’Connor.
Then there is the toss up of Solomon.
This is where it all stood as of the last Newspoll.]
PVO on Contrarians calling the Coalition’s cut to foreign aid as ‘stupid’.
Thanks Ari,
Do you think there are changes in voting intention in age demographics?
PVO says it is ‘ridiculous’.
Fibs Rally behind Bishop:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/11/3136674.htm?section=justin
blue_green,
[have you looked at the newspoll quarterly results to see which states or cohorts are ther ones that have drifted from the ALP? ]
Qld, WA, NSW! Bogans! 😉
Didn’t look at that B-G. But these things tend to take care of themselves and the shifts tend to follow similar patterns. ALP stronger with the younger voters and the LNP with the older ones etc
And Their ABC 24 bring out an “Expert” to bag the new Health Reforms.
how Surprisement.
Not sure if this has alread been posted but I kinda thought the coalition backbenchers summed up their week nicely:
[FRUSTRATED Liberal backbenchers have lashed senior colleagues, accusing the shadow cabinet of throwing away public goodwill through needless internal squabbling.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and his deputy Julie Bishop today put on a show of unity after a week of backroom disagreement over proposed Coalition cuts to foreign aid.
The stoush fuelled suspicions of deeper power plays by other senior Coalition figures.
Backbenchers said the shadow cabinet seemed intent on trashing the Coalition brand, despite a Newspoll early this week showing record support for Mr Abbott as leader.
“We started the week at the top of a mountain, we finished at the bottom shovelling shit,” one said.
“The backbench is really pissed off. We are not amused.”
]
William:
First para, last line, ‘praliament’.
Glenn Milne in 2010
[In the context of “the heir v the spare” the two names most often mentioned are Pyne and Dutton. Pyne has badly dented the government’s best asset, Julia Gillard, over the Building the Education Revolution with two inquiries into alleged rorts now afoot. Despite initial reservations from colleagues, he now fits the role of Opposition Leader of Business in the House like a mailed fist in a silk glove.
Dutton too has a natural ease at the dispatch box and has helped drive Rudd into the corner that is his proposed takeover of the hospitals system from the states. Dutton is from the Right. Pyne is the leader of the moderates. Yet they are friends.]
Having been away a little while I am surprised nothing much appears to have been made of the Singapore crack in the media or on twitter.
80,000 commonwealth troops placed into hell like imprisonment v minor political stoush over health. Yes, obviously a valid comparison.
Frank Calabrese,
[And Their ABC 24 bring out an “Expert” to bag the new Health Reforms.
how Surprisement. ]
I thought it was a bad idea for JG to hold that presser this morning. (Monday much better) and going by the way the media are going feral on it, I believe I was right.
Unfortunately, we have the whole weekend to go yet for the media to muddy the waters & take the heat off the Opposition!
[
mfarnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
Hinch compares Gillard’s dumping of Rudd’s health plan to tearing down the Saddam Hussein statues. #MoronsOnTheCarRadio
11 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
[scorpio
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 4:24 pm | Permalink
Frank Calabrese,
And Their ABC 24 bring out an “Expert” to bag the new Health Reforms.
how Surprisement.
I thought it was a bad idea for JG to hold that presser this morning. (Monday much better) and going by the way the media are going feral on it, I believe I was right.
Unfortunately, we have the whole weekend to go yet for the media to muddy the waters & take the heat off the Opposition!
]
Umm COAG was brought forward to Sunday because of the funeral of thev dead Digger – It was appropriate to announce it BEFORE the meeting took place.
But I suppose you would prefer the criticism if she DID’NT announce it before COAG ??
Frank
We agree.
🙂
7:30 AM in Egypt. Could be a big day.
All that matters politically in the short term is whether or not Gillard gets an agreement from the states on Sunday.
What will matter in the longer term is whether that agreement makes a difference to the health system.
What the press say or don’t say today or tomorrow is not important.
“Hope for timber workers”:
[INDEPENDENT Senator Nick Xenophon has given embattled South-East timber industry workers a glimmer of hope.
Senator Xenophon yesterday secured a federal inquiry into a State Government decision to sell off forests.
The Senate inquiry will report by April but any recommendations will not be binding on the Rann Government.
“I believe the decision by the South Australian Government to forward sell over 100 years of timber harvests needs to be thoroughly reviewed because it will have a significant impact on the south-east,” Senator Xenophon said.
“There is a strong likelihood of regional job losses as a result of this decision.”
Forestry workers, timber communities and sawmills have been united in their opposition to the plan, holding a rally on Tuesday which attracted more than 60 logging trucks and 3000 people to the steps of State Parliament.
The loggers say 5000 jobs in the state’s timber industry would be put at risk.
They also fear any buyer of the estimated $2.8 billion resource will send logs offshore for processing, causing the shutdown of sawmills and supporting businesses.
The State Government has argued the sale, which has not been decided upon, would help protect the state’s triple-A credit rating, arguing it would pay government debt and guarantee the delivery of the state’s investment in vital infrastructure.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/hope-for-timber-workers/story-e6frea6u-1226004000393
[BERNARDKEANE | 21 minutes ago
ABC continues to let Oppn staffers write their headlines RT @abcnews: Gillard’s health backdown ‘an absolute wipeout’ ]
http://bit.ly/dI8EDK
I don’t have a problem with the Singapore reference except that it is silly hyperbole. Singapore remains the greatest ever British military defeat. (PVO took a minor swipe at it, BTW). The Women’s Weekly editor calls the Singapore call ‘ridiculous’.
Rudd came up with a plan A that several of the key players refused to agree with. Gillard inherits it, looks at the political landscape, and goes to plan B. It will get, in reasonably quick time, agreement from everybody.
Come some time in the next month or so, Gillard will be able to announce a national health agreement with all states and territories. It will have the support of a couple of state Liberal premiers so Abbott’s attack will be weakened.
50-50 I’d guess Scorpio.
If you went into the COAG meeting with no details given on the proposals then they would be texted out within five minutes. Then it would be Labor collapses in negotations. Every negative thing happening now would happen then and drown out any agreement.
With the negatives out of the way today, then if agreement is reached you come out on Monday with a win.
Interesting to see that by some distance the most negative coverage has come from the ABC.
The ABC didn’t follow the Liberals line, it led them to it.
The previous headline, BEFORE Abbott’s media conference was “GST surrender”.
[I’m fuming. The WA ABC news editor, Kim Jordan, has just been on radio agreeing with another guest that Julia’s emotional condolence speech was deliberately “styled” for political effect. This on top of Lauren Rosewarne’s scurrilous piece is just about the final straw. Of course, at the same time, it was poor Tony, terrible channel 7, how dare they take something out of context to try to trip him up. Well hello fella’s – didn’t hear you mention the content of the speech Julia gave – the heartrending details of loss – when she lost some composure. This man is an ABC news editor, and clearly shows just why the Government struggles to get a positive message across. I have made a formal complaint – latest in a long line, and expect the usual pap in response.]
Well spotted, Hairy nose! Keep the complaints rolling in to Their ABC, and keep copies of their replies. Add do escalate the complaints if not satisfied with their response.
[hairy nose comment 75
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 3:39 pm | Permalink
I’m fuming. The WA ABC news editor, Kim Jordan, has just been on radio agreeing with another guest that Julia’s emotional condolence speech was deliberately “styled” for political effect. This on top of Lauren Rosewarne’s scurrilous piece is just about the final straw. Of course, at the same time, it was poor Tony, terrible channel 7, how dare they take something out of context to try to trip him up. Well hello fella’s – didn’t hear you mention the content of the speech Julia gave – the heartrending details of loss – when she lost some composure. This man is an ABC news editor, and clearly shows just why the Government struggles to get a positive message across. I have made a formal complaint – latest in a long line, and expect the usual pap in response.]
Did you send your complaint to the ABC. if so did you send a CC to Conroy’s office? The ABC should not think they can just brush off complaints without the Minister hearing about it.
who is Hayden Cooper?
[HAYDENCOOPER | 2 minutes ago
Anna Bligh on health: “I won’t be signing up to anything on Sunday”.]
[victoria
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 4:40 pm | Permalink
who is Hayden Cooper?
HAYDENCOOPER | 2 minutes ago
Anna Bligh on health: “I won’t be signing up to anything on Sunday”.
]
Their ABC Reporter – and I use the term loosely – more like Copy/paste merchant 🙂
Contrarians talking about whether Gillard’s tears were real… faark.
[I don’t have a problem with the Singapore reference except that it is silly hyperbole. Singapore remains the greatest ever British military defeat. (PVO took a minor swipe at it, BTW). The Women’s Weekly editor calls the Singapore call ‘ridiculous’.]
I agree with PVO and the Weekly’s editor. (didn’t see them just taking your reporting)
There’s something seriously wrong with Abbott’s judgement. Singapore! Is there a more sore point in Australia’s military history?
How many of those soldiers died in Japanese POW camps and he makes a flippant remark about it relating to some health announcement by the govt.
Thanks Frank.
victoria
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 4:40 pm | Permalink
who is Hayden Cooper]
he is that reporter the abc posted to christmas isl, during the boat tradagedy
The premiers will have to do some grandstanding for their home audiences, but, seriously, they have absolutely nowhere to go on this. All Gillard has to say is take it or leave it. If they leave it, simple, they don’t get it.
The fed bargaining position is incredibly more powerful than Rudd’s approach.
so anna bligh back to her old self is she well well well
Now they are talking about calling Gillard as a bitch because she says hard things… faark.
Frank,
[But I suppose you would prefer the criticism if she DID’NT announce it before COAG ??]
I don’t think there would have been “any”! All the media oxygen was being sucked up by Abbott and the rabble.
And there’s time now for the Liberal States to do a complete back-flip and styme the latest version of Health proposal.
I think Labor have given them a free hit. They won’t miss it, wait & see. Just check out the headlines & articles already and then there is the next couple of days TV & radio coverage!
I’m often wrong, people often tell me I’m wrong, but I do think Labor would have been far better served lying low and letting Abbott & Co soak up the media coverage.
Poor effort by Bradford on ABC95. Frydenberg got first go and last.
[scorpio
Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
Frank,
But I suppose you would prefer the criticism if she DID’NT announce it before COAG ??
I don’t think there would have been “any”! All the media oxygen was being sucked up by Abbott and the rabble.
And there’s time now for the Liberal States to do a complete back-flip and styme the latest version of Health proposal.
I think Labor have given them a free hit. They won’t miss it, wait & see. Just check out the headlines & articles already and then there is the next couple of days TV & radio coverage!
I’m often wrong, people often tell me I’m wrong, but I do think Labor would have been far better served lying low and letting Abbott & Co soak up the media coverage.
]
Barnett has all but signed on the dotted line.
Amnd yes, you ARE wRONg.
Hmmm PVO just read a tweet from someone who had two relations executed in Singapore, reckoning that Abbott was a grub.
Chris Uhlmann telling porkies (well he IS a right winger…):
[“The 20 seconds that Opposition Leader Tony Abbott spent glaring at Channel Seven’s political editor Mark Riley, held a menace that cannot be translated to print.”]
The death stare was longer than “20 seconds”. Uhlmann would have known that. Channel 7 chopped some 40 seconds off the footage so it would fit in the news program.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/11/3136317.htm
Complaint sent and CCed to the Minister.
Cuppa,
With a bit of luck the full footage will “emerge.”
[Hmmm PVO just read a tweet from someone who had two relations executed in Singapore, reckoning that Abbott was a grub.]
I think this is just the start of it. I think this is a serious, stupid mistake by Abbott and shows he has no understanding of these things.
Cuppa,
Did you send it to Kate Torney, Head of News?
Tone only turns one trick and it’s not pretty.
Frank,
[Barnett has all but signed on the dotted line.
And yes, you ARE wRONg. ]
Maybe, probably, but you know your man better than I do.
Don’t trust Vic and looks like Bligh is playing silly beggers now too.
I got a bad feeling in my water about it, as they say! 😉
[The Seven Network said yesterday there was an additional 48 seconds of staring, which it chose not to air. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/libs-turn-on-abbott-over-tv-silence/story-fn59niix-1226003268898
Chris Uhlmann, Their ABC:
[20 seconds]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/11/3136317.htm
Well, PVO stuck up strongly for Bishop’s side of the foreign aid policy debate. I wonder if they have buried the hatchet, whatever.