Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

• Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

• Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. [That sounds like pure fantasy, Scorp. Barnett has stayed out of an agreement before so he could have again.]

    But he didn’t, did he! Care to give your version of why that should be!

  8. I think the Premiers have now realised that they have a PM they can negotiate with. They are going to be very hard to manage by Lib HQ.

  9. [Barnett said it was all tickety-boo on the health agreement, but Julia needn’t expect the same cooperation on mining.]
    At the end of the day, Julia wouldn’t need Barnett’s agreement for a super profit tax on certain extractive industries. They are companies subject to federal company tax.

  11. Thanks all!

    She will eat the pouty lip hang dog look of the ex copper! Tomorrow should be an interesting day in the Press.

    Abbott’s head will be mumified all day when he gets asked a few questions on this deal.

    Mark Riley should go and ask him a few more questions just for the heck of it!

  12. [9victoria
    Posted Sunday, February 13, 2011 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    David

    who is Julian? 😉 ]

    I got all excited victoria, this is a wonderful day for Julia and Minister Roxen, am thrilled for them.

  13. victoria

    No, the mining tax was brought up by Barnett. Couldn’t resist, I think. The journos were asking things they cold do a gotcha on – like when will it happen, what are the exact figures, etc. Julia said it was a Heads of Agreement and one asked – so when will the real deal happen. She said this is it and you’ll get a copy on your way out. (:P)

  14. [But he didn’t, did he! Care to give your version of why that should be!]
    Sorry scorp, I don’t make things up just because I don’t know the facts.

  18. David

    It certainly is a great outcome. Abbott and Dutton are going to be the party poopers as usual.
    What makes me laugh is that Abbott says it is a win for the Premiers. Well I would say to Abbott, if it is a win for the Premiers, stands to reason, it is a win for their citizens too.

  23. [the mining tax was brought up by Barnett]
    It was brought up by a journo wtte “Can we expect the same cooperation over the mining tax?”

  28. [The journos were asking things they cold do a gotcha on – like when will it happen, what are the exact figures, etc.]
    Um, those are valid questions, not gotchas. Have we really forgotten what real questions are?

  29. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    @
    @AgnessMack Hi Agnes. Yes there is a #Nielsen poll out tonight.]

    Wonder how this will pan out hopefully a kick in the polls for Julia after Abbotts performance last week.

    Just got back to the motel from having a feed in Launceston near impossible to find a few tasty morsels on a Sunday night.

    Wife and I happy to see Jooles got her health agreement up, sux to be Tone atm

    cheers

  31. Oh, I did enjoy Julia’s “Winners are grinners” grin. Just about on a par with mine 😀 relishing:

    [Related Story: Government backs down on health GST deal
    Related Story: Gillard’s health backdown ‘an absolute wipeout’
    Related Story: Health groups seek end to reform bickering]

  35. Shanahan yesterday said it wasn’t baout Health at all. It was just a finance arrangement. No biggy.

    2UE shock jock said, “So the whole thing’s a fraud, is it?”

  36. [Just got back to the motel from having a feed in Launceston near impossible to find a few tasty morsels on a Sunday night.]
    Roadkill? 🙂

  37. It’s Time

    But Julia had told them that all the details hadn’t been worked out yet, although she said it would all start in July this year.

  41. Wonder how this will pan out hopefully a kick in the polls for Julia after Abbotts performance last week.

    And a kick in the something elses for Abbott.

  42. victoria,

    Barnett is not a complete idiot. He does not want his toast to fall buttered side down. Which Julia seems quite capable of administering.

  43. [Sorry scorp, I don’t make things up just because I don’t know the facts.]

    Well if you’re going to publicly accuse me of making stuff up, I’d appreciate you publicly identifying just what you have difficulty with.

    Then it can be sorted in a civilised way can’t it!

  45. vp

    I am pleased that a national agreement has been reached. They all seem pretty pleased with the outcome. Abbott can rabbit on all he likes. This is a much needed reform.

  50. Someone was asking what Nicola was doing while Julia gave her spiel on Friday. Whatever she was doing, you have just seen the result. Nicola does, indeed, rock. Tuesday week should be good.

Comments are closed.

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