Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result is 50-50. Certainly Labor’s position is found to have deteriorated since the previous poll a fortnight ago, their primary vote down 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition’s up by the same amount to 43 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 12.5 per cent. This tends to support Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s position had weakened further in the weeks before praliament resumed.

Other news:

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail reports the internal inquiry into Labor’s 2010 election fiasco being conducted by Bob Carr, Steve Bracks and John Faulkner “could open up selection of election candidates to the public”, American primaries style. This has always struck me as being the last bad solution for much of what ails the party, in view of the terminal membership decline of major political parties generally.

• The AEC published annual political donation disclosures for 2009-10 last week. The damage has been extensively surveyed by Crikey’s Bernard Keane (here, here and here), Andrew Crook (here and here) and Stephen Mayne (here).

• The Western Australian government has announced it will introduce legislation for fixed terms next terms. The date will likely be set for March, with the next election due in 2013, although past talk from the government has suggested allowing some flexibility to ensure state elections do not clash with other elections or similarly disruptive events.

• Election dates are not fixed in New Zealand, but Prime Minister John Key has nonetheless done his nation the service of alerting it long ahead of time that the election due for this year will be held on November 26.

Carolyn Tucker of the Caloundra Journal reports former Wallabies head coach John Connolly has confirmed he will seek Liberal National Party state preselection for the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Nicklin, which independent Peter Wellington has held securely since 1998. Their candidate from the last two elections, Steve Morrison, has also nominated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,842 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 55 of 57
1 54 55 56 57
  1. victoria, as you are the Lone Respondent, what is everyone watching?

    I do not have access to ABC 24 at this time, if that is it.

  2. [I bet Colin Barnett has come out of this Agreement far worse off than under Rudd’s!

    Serves the partisan, policy saboteur right. I bet Jules said to him every time he tried to screw her, that the amount for WA will keep reducing!]
    That sounds like pure fantasy, Scorp. Barnett has stayed out of an agreement before so he could have again.

  3. Not surprised Abbott doesn’t like this agreement. He only like deals that take money OUT of public health. Didn’t he rip 100 billion out of health as minister 😉

  4. [And there is an agreement to have some form of COAG activity on mental health.]
    Are they all chipping in for Dick Togs to see a shrink?

  5. crikey whitey

    The press conference has just finished. Julia and the Premiers together with Chief Ministers were taking questions from the reporters.

  6. Barnett and the Hyena just stuffed up Abbott’s punchline. Aren’t they supposed to say “this is a bad Government”? Rather that “we are stoked with this agreement”?

  7. Came home from dinner to PB news that Julia had sealed her Health Reforms at COAG.

    ONYA, Julia!

    Geez, Tony. Did you a black cat cross your path when walking under a ladder, then you imagined a chinaman was Riley & king-hit him fatally? 😀

  8. Barnett said it was all tickety-boo on the health agreement, but Julia needn’t expect the same cooperation on mining.
    Some nasty snaky journos, but Julia brushed them away.

  9. victoria he was very sensible and fully behind the deal. I think he gets on with Julia and he is (within WA ranges of normal) moderate. I said before that if it was good deal he would back and he has.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 55 of 57
1 54 55 56 57