GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first Newspoll of the year offers more grim news for the government, with Labor’s primary vote down a further two points from the final poll of last year to 32 per cent and the Coalition up three to 44 per cent. No two-party result has yet been provided, but past experience suggests it will land at either 52-48 or 53-47 depending on rounding. This compares with 50-50 in the final Newspoll of last year. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here. The two-party result is 52-48, which probably flatters Labor a little due to rounding, while the Greens’ primary vote is steady on 14 per cent. Contrary to the findings of an Essential Research poll which gave Labor much better figures on voting intention, the poll also shows a fairly solid majority supporting the government’s proposed flood levy: 55 per cent are supportive (26 per cent strongly, 29 per cent somewhat), with 41 per cent opposed (25 per cent strongly, 16 per cent somewhat). Despite this, Tony Abbott has managed to claw back seven points on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails Julia Gillard 48 per cent (down four points) to 35 per cent (up three). Gillard’s approval rating is steady on 45 per cent but her disapproval is up four to 42 per cent, while Abbott’s numbers are little changed: approval steady on 42 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent.
All told, a most curious set of numbers.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 46 per cent and Labor to 38 per cent. The Greens are down one to 10 per cent, further widening the gap in their ratings between Newspoll and Essential (“others” are also consistently higher in Newspoll than Essential – in both cases, the latter has been much closer to the last election result).
My favourite of the supplementary questions is on the party with the best approach to funding flood reconstruction, on which Labor leads 36 per cent to 28 per cent. However, the Coalition performs significantly better on “who would you trust most to manage the program of rebuilding infrastructure”, on which Labor’s lead is 36 per cent to 35 per cent. Respondents were also asked for their opinion on each aspect of the government’s efforts to pay for flood reconstruction. Significantly, this shows strong support for the scrapping of “cash for clunkers”, a program that evidently contributed to perceptions of ongoing government wastefulness. This time the flood levy had 44 per cent support and 50 per cent opposition: better than last week’s Essential, but worse than Newspoll. Cuts in solar energy programs and the scrapping of the higher education capital development pool were strongly opposed.
Questions on leaders’ attributes show a deterioration in perceptions of both leaders since October, in similar ways: both are down sharply on intelligent, hard-working, capable and visionary, but Julia Gillard has also suffered on arrogant, out of touch and narrow-minded. The only question on which Tony Abbott performs better than Gillard is “superficial”, though in many cases there’s not much in it.
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has again set aside a further question for release later in the day by Channel Ten, this time relating to whether the independents should continue supporting Labor or switch to the Coalition. It finds 43 per cent favouring the former option, against 30 per cent for the latter. Breakdowns by age and party support go much as you would expect.
[
Joe Hockey also tells AM ‘everyone knows that’ (it was wrong for the party to ask for donations to fight the levy.)
]
Everyone except Tony it seems
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
Socrates
The trouble is, you’ll never see it reported that way. All I heard this morning was the “disastrous poll for Julia” meme. That’s what flows through the airwaves and into people’s minds. I don’t know what it’ll make them think (I know what it makes me think!), but it certainly does make the Coalition sound viable. And it probably also means journalists and reporters are going to make a lot more out of every Coalition statement and brainfart again.
I’ve already heard both Hockey and Hunt getting their rants on the radio, and they’ve been quiet for ages.
madcyril
yes, that is my understanding of it too.
Very odd poll. It seems incongruant with essential poll and morgan phone poll. Another Essential Poll today should shine more light on the matter.
Otherwise the govt should be happy that they FINALLY learnt how to sell a policy.
And it was really interesting seein gall the whiteanting against Abbott over the last few days. They put their faith too much in one poll though. The “if Abbott is behind on thin newspoll …” line backfired slightly.
Very happy to read the Gillard “go with her instinct article” as compared to the devolve party policy and election strategy to US focus group company.
Aguirre
If it gives the coalition confidence to continue in their policy vacuum, so be it. Indies will not give power to the rabble of a coalition. Election not till 2013. Flood levy legislation will get passed.
Not concerned at all.
I didn’thear him but it was mentioned on ABC radio. Apparently Hockey did the Liberal Party Mea Culpa over the email. Albo was being i’ved and he said wtte that if Hockey can why not Abbott?
b-g
I know you expected a better poll. I was not. As I have been saying, this poll does not concern me at all, and it should not concern the govt. They need to get on with it. If the coalition think they can win from this poll, even better I say.
if the coalition take the poll seriously, they should back the flood levy legislation.
Vic
I think they would have liked a boost. But it seems that Gillard and the govt is learning and Abbott is now struggling.
This poll should shore him up in today’s (?) party room meeting. Unless there is serious resentment then some people will have a go.
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 7 minutes ago
Labor MP Kelvin Thompson says he’d like savings to target ‘Middle class largesse’ egs baby bonus & family p/ments ‘JWH ‘vote buying.’] #doors
Vic
Abbott will not back the flood levy.
If the ALP want to tighten up family tax benefit it would be a sign they have grown testicles.
b-g
The polling should support for the flood levy. What is Abbott going to say in the party room meeting? I am sure he is going to stick to his guns. This will hurt him in the long run.
oops – should – showed
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
Lib MP Rowan Ramsey says in hindsight the donation plea would not have been added to the Lib email.]floodlevy
Vic
It will be a general ra-ra speech. It won’t be a detail on the levy. They will have to discuss it but they will amke the discussion as small as possible.
It will be centred around the newspoll.
b-g
If this poll has given Abbott confidence to continue with his modus operandi. All the better for Labor, I say. Peak Abbott will occur sooner or later.
Courier Mail editorialises against Abbott
[Not time to be playing politics
* From: The Courier-Mail
* February 07, 2011 12:00AM
STANDING FIRM: Prime Minister Julia Gillard fronts hard questions at a press conference yesterday. Pic: Ray Strange Source: News Limited
WHILE Tony Abbott appears incapable of calling off a Liberal Party fundraising drive because of the Queensland floods, the ALP thinks it’s a good enough reason to delay a debate on the party’s very future.
The ALP’s national executive meeting scheduled for this Friday – to discuss the review of last year’s near-death election campaign and the less-than-successful Rudd years – has been postponed for a week.
The primary reason is that senior ministers have been too preoccupied dealing with the aftermath of the floods in and around Brisbane and the catastrophic cyclone that hit Queensland’s far north.
And they’ll continue to be preoccupied this week with another visit by Julia Gillard to the cyclone zone on the cards at the end of the week – probably on the day the executive meeting was pencilled in for.
The review, with some 90 recommendations mostly on the way Labor governs, also needs some digesting before it’s dropped out for public consumption.
A Prime Minister who was dogged by suggestions she’d been installed by “faceless men” doesn’t need a party report heavy on proscriptive advice about how to run the country.
There was a taste of Gillard’s likely response to anything smacking of an erosion of authority when she was asked yesterday about a possible recommendation she give up the power to appoint her ministers. This would see Labor go back to the “Caucus as King” model where MPs tell the leader who they’ll have.
“Despite who says whatever in whatever context, I will maintain my view,” Gillard told Meet the Press. “As leader, I will pick my frontbench team.”
Gillard’s view is simple logic. She has been a long-term advocate of this reform and, once Rudd instituted it three years ago, Labor was never going to unscramble the omelette.
While the Government’s decision to postpone its post-mortem is quite understandable, Abbott’s refusal to junk his Liberal Party “stop the flood tax” fundraising drive is inexplicable.
Abbott is so stubborn – seemingly intent on never taking a backward step, regardless of the cost – he wouldn’t even say it was more important to donate to the flood appeal than it was to kick in for the Liberal Party.
To adapt one of Abbott’s favourite phrases, that’s bad judgment on steroids.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/not-time-to-be-playing-politics/story-e6frerff-1226001082759
b_g
[This poll should shore him up in today’s (?) party room meeting. Unless there is serious resentment then some people will have a go.]
Once the rumblings of dissent start it is pretty hard to put them back in the box.
Talk of internal polling, of Newspoll, grumblings about style etc… tells me they are thinking of replicating the ALP’s swift demotion of Rudd.
It was Kroger who said the Coalition should take lessons from that.
Remember Rudd’s demise was about more than polls.
b-g
good piece in the CM. If the coalition are going to poll driven, they will fall in the same trap as Labor fell into over the past 3 years. We know how that worked for Labor.
Dee
exactly. Even if the polls are good for Abbott. Abbott in the long run is no good for the coalition.
from last thread – replies unsuccessful at the time:
[They’re always a bit behind PB, but it seems as though the CM has caught up with the potential new threat brewing up. Looks like plenty of heat energy working on it.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/in-wake-of-yasi-new-potential-cyclone-swirls-near-fiji/story-e6freoof-1226000749085%5D
This one (now called “Zaka”) doesn’t look as if it will come anywhere near Queensland, scorpio. The models say it will travel down to the east of New Zealand’s north island. see http://bit.ly/TCZakaUSNTrack for example The Euro model is in complete agreement.
TC “Zaka” will follow Wilma, which, troubled NZ on the 29th January.
The only system which is likely to come anywhere near Australia in the next ten days is a low expected to develop off WA near northwest in a few days time. It is expected to head west into the Indian ocean, though, rather than hitting WA.
It was a pretty naughty beat up by the CM, in my view.
Dee
It is more about than polls.
Two things:
-no Liberal Policies put forward (no IR, no productivity agenda, no posiitve vision for Australia)
-keeping self-described ‘young, ambitious, talented MPs’ out of the Ministry.
[SteveGibbonsMP
.#floodlevy Just another Tony Abbott ‘Great Big New Cock Up’! ]
This is the Labor MP that should be let out of the box.
whoops – for “near northwest” try “near Northwest Cape”
5000 people hospitalised (at least) in Sydney’s record heatwave (most days in a row over 30, highest overnight temp).
Around 50-100 people would have died. No public health announcements, no warnings, no preparations or action from State Govt.
Instead we had Kenneally apoligising for her disgrace of a govt via video at a conference.
Early reports of what the opposition would cut rather than impose the levy
[
The federal opposition reportedly will cancel what is left of Labor’s multi-billion dollar school halls program as part of an alternative plan to imposing a flood levy on some taxpayers.
It also wants to cut foreign aid to Africa, defer or cancel water buybacks, and slash $300 million from a fund that supports research and development in the motor vehicle industry, the West Australian said on Monday.
The opposition has firmly rejected the levy – that aims to raise $1.8 billion for the rebuilding of flood-damaged communities – for which the government will introduce legislation to parliament on Thursday.
Advertisement: Story continues below Shadow cabinet is expected to sign off a hit list of spending cuts at a meeting later on Monday in Canberra.
]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/cut-school-halls-program-says-opposition-20110207-1aitc.html
Found this bit interesting
[
The cuts have been drawn up by opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb with little input from Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, the West Australian says.
]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/cut-school-halls-program-says-opposition-20110207-1aitc.html
[The cuts have been drawn up by opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb with little input from Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, the West Australian says.]
The big financial question for the week – “How will the Opposition’s savings proposals be presented?
a) on one A5 sheet?
b) on one A4 sheet?
c) on one A3 sheet?
SImon Benson also likes the whisper campaign against Abbott
[May least unpopular pollie take out the bin
* Simon Benson
* From: The Daily Telegraph
AS FEDERAL MPs jet back into Canberra for the renewal of hostilities and a debate about the $1.8 billion flood tax, the question being asked is who will still be in their job by year’s end — Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott.
Some voters might hope the answer to this is neither.
The PM is struggling. Labor is struggling. And the challenges all yet lie ahead of her.
But with the current political dynamic and the hung parliament as it is for Labor, the reality is that if Gillard goes, they all go.
It’s a big call to make, and most moderate Liberals aren’t prepared to make it outside the discussions in their own heads, but some believe Julia Gillard’s Prime Ministership will outlive Tony Abbott’s leadership of the Opposition.
The logic suggests if Tony Abbott can’t knock the Government over this year, then he won’t ever be able to do it, and his colleagues will be looking around for someone who can.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
Abbott’s leadership is likely to come into sharper focus this year with some Libs starting to question whether Abbott is the man to take the Coalition from the brink of power into government.
As Labor’s national secretary Karl Bitar said in his post-election analysis: “The only reason why so many people voted for the Coalition is that only 20 per cent thought he could win.”
There may be some truth to that. It has to be remembered that lying beyond the cloud of conservative euphoria of nearly knocking off a first term Labor government is the reality that the significant swings to the Liberals were in safe Liberal and safe Labor seats.
In a nutshell, it is a miracle that Labor is still in government after the disasters of 2010.
If Abbott couldn’t beat them then, how will he beat them in the future?
In a political world that is now overtly presidential, people may have warmed to Abbott as much as they are going to.
It is inevitable that once the memories of the election fade, people will start to ask questions of Tony Abbott. One NSW Liberal even offered a time frame: “He has got to mid-year, after the Budget.”
Predictions of Abbott’s potential demise may appear to be greatly exaggerated. But there are some troubling signs already this year, particularly around the response to Julia Gillard’s flood levy.
The misjudgment wasn’t that Abbott opposed it but rather how he opposed it.
There are those in the Coalition who believe that they have fluffed the attack by trying to frame their argument and opposition to the levy as “another tax”.
Abbott’s political judgment is rarely questioned by his colleagues but this time it has been. The levy itself should not have been the issue, they argue. It was why Gillard had to impose the levy that was the key to the Coalition winning this argument decisively.
Instead of framing it as a tax debate Abbott needed to be clearly and persistently arguing it as a debate about government spending. By not doing this he allowed Gillard to turn the debate into a morality test.
It is likely Gillard will get up her levy and that will be a considerable victory for her, which will surprise the Coalition members who believed they were in the box seat going into this year.
There is certainly an attempt by the Canberra spinners to persuade the press gallery that this is the case, that Gillard is on the rise and Abbott on the nose.
As the politics of this year begin to take shape, it appears clear that it will be defined as who is the less unpopular political leader rather than who is the most popular.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/may-least-unpopular-pollie-take-out-the-bin/story-fn6b3v4f-1226001074975
[How will the Opposition’s savings proposals be presented?]
1 x DL envelope
vp
Nice!
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 32 seconds ago
TAbbott asked about support for #floodlevy warns supporters that ‘this is the first in a series of taxes from Labor.’
here in Vic, floodwaters are affecting many areas. I think Abbott has shot himself in the foot.
[[LATIKAMBOURKE | 32 seconds ago
TAbbott asked about support for #floodlevy warns supporters that ‘this is the first in a series of taxes from Labor.’]
Unhinged? Demented? take your choice!
[It is inevitable that once the memories of the election fade, people will start to ask questions of Tony Abbott. One NSW Liberal even offered a time frame: “He has got to mid-year, after the Budget.”]
So they are setting dates. He has to wrestle govt off the ALP by the budget.
The knives are out. The moderates must be the most grouchy ones at that newspoll.
LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 second ago
TAbott won’t disagree with Hockey that donation plea was a mistake but when pressed says people only want to talk bout living costs.
Be interesting to know just how they have excluded ‘flood and cyclone affected” areas, how they defined them, and just what assumptions they have made in putting together the 2PP and leader approval / disapproval figures.
Was Qld included at all? What about Brisbane? Any east coast Qld cities and towns?
Given that these are the areas where Labor seem most likely to have picked up some votes over the last few weeks, and the ones where they were at an historic low, then their omission (while probably inevitable) will inevitably have had an impact on the result. Also did they undertake a “weighted” comparison of the results wrt to the previous poll, exempting the same parts of Qld from the earlier poll for comparison, or did they simply compare the overall national result from both polls?
I think you can probably see this one as something of an “orphan” poll, not directly comparable with the main series.
b-g
Abbott will not wrestle govt off the ALP. It is not going to happen. The Libs know it. Abbott is going to be a liability in the long run.
Vic,
😀
Rod Hagen
What about Victoria. Flood has affected greater Melbourne as well as most country areas.
Pardon the pun, but I feel in my waters, Abbott is cooked.
[latikambourke TAbott won’t disagree with Hockey that donation plea was a mistake but when pressed says people only want to talk bout living costs. ]
Gilbert continues to press “Because there’s so much water around, why not save on water buybacks?”
Pinhead!
The way the newspoll is being reported is pretty soft for Labor.
The online stories are largely picking up on the levy result.
[How will the Opposition’s savings proposals be presented?
1 x DL envelope]
Back of same?
How about a serviette from the local cafe?
The problem for Rabbott is not just this cock up with the levy. It is a series of cock ups & bad judgement.
The ALP has to join the dots for the voters.
[How will the Opposition’s savings proposals be presented?
1 x DL envelope
Back of same?
How about a serviette from the local cafe?]
On the back of a Big Mac wrapper?
So how did everyone else react to the artcile last week about the ALP outsourcing the election cmapign strategy to a US focus group company. It seems to justify my criticism throught the campaign.
The Arbibistas need to be hung drawn and quartered and their heads put on spikes out the front of Sussex Street.
This poll kind of puts those hopelessly optimistic comments that Abbott was dead in the water into perspective.
Will the ALP really touch the Family Tax Benefit?
Surely not. Even I think it would be suicidal.