Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first Newspoll of the year offers more grim news for the government, with Labor’s primary vote down a further two points from the final poll of last year to 32 per cent and the Coalition up three to 44 per cent. No two-party result has yet been provided, but past experience suggests it will land at either 52-48 or 53-47 depending on rounding. This compares with 50-50 in the final Newspoll of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The two-party result is 52-48, which probably flatters Labor a little due to rounding, while the Greens’ primary vote is steady on 14 per cent. Contrary to the findings of an Essential Research poll which gave Labor much better figures on voting intention, the poll also shows a fairly solid majority supporting the government’s proposed flood levy: 55 per cent are supportive (26 per cent strongly, 29 per cent somewhat), with 41 per cent opposed (25 per cent strongly, 16 per cent somewhat). Despite this, Tony Abbott has managed to claw back seven points on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails Julia Gillard 48 per cent (down four points) to 35 per cent (up three). Gillard’s approval rating is steady on 45 per cent but her disapproval is up four to 42 per cent, while Abbott’s numbers are little changed: approval steady on 42 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent.

All told, a most curious set of numbers.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 46 per cent and Labor to 38 per cent. The Greens are down one to 10 per cent, further widening the gap in their ratings between Newspoll and Essential (“others” are also consistently higher in Newspoll than Essential – in both cases, the latter has been much closer to the last election result).

My favourite of the supplementary questions is on the party with the best approach to funding flood reconstruction, on which Labor leads 36 per cent to 28 per cent. However, the Coalition performs significantly better on “who would you trust most to manage the program of rebuilding infrastructure”, on which Labor’s lead is 36 per cent to 35 per cent. Respondents were also asked for their opinion on each aspect of the government’s efforts to pay for flood reconstruction. Significantly, this shows strong support for the scrapping of “cash for clunkers”, a program that evidently contributed to perceptions of ongoing government wastefulness. This time the flood levy had 44 per cent support and 50 per cent opposition: better than last week’s Essential, but worse than Newspoll. Cuts in solar energy programs and the scrapping of the higher education capital development pool were strongly opposed.

Questions on leaders’ attributes show a deterioration in perceptions of both leaders since October, in similar ways: both are down sharply on intelligent, hard-working, capable and visionary, but Julia Gillard has also suffered on arrogant, out of touch and narrow-minded. The only question on which Tony Abbott performs better than Gillard is “superficial”, though in many cases there’s not much in it.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has again set aside a further question for release later in the day by Channel Ten, this time relating to whether the independents should continue supporting Labor or switch to the Coalition. It finds 43 per cent favouring the former option, against 30 per cent for the latter. Breakdowns by age and party support go much as you would expect.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,579 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. el baradei’s Nat Assoc for Change & some othr Protest Leaders were not invited to Suilemen (failed) Meeting that muslum bro attneded , Mubarek Govt tryin divide and rule trick

  2. State Govt TV , keep replayin thses (failed) Talks with Protesters Leaders to show Govt is in control and trying to ‘compromise’

  5. today at Tahrir Squ & thru all Egypt today is th day of martyers , for those who’ve died in th protests , UN puts daeths at in excess of 300 , tho State govt TV broadcast 10 only dead

  6. live govt msn , “The state news agency Mena statement continues that all parties at Sunday’s talks agreed to “the peaceful transition of power in line with the constitution”.

    this is spin to Egypt public that resulution of protests is progressing MSN Report is total contrary to what all th attending Protest Leaders hav said live on TV since that Meet

  7. Looks like some kind of bubble. There’s nothing firm sustaining the Liberal Party’s relative popularity – the respondents prefer the ALP’s policies, and they prefer the ALP’s leader.

  9. Tahrir BBC report now inside Tahrir Squ , “from a now dark Tahrir Square, the focal point of the anti-Mubarak protests, that every strand of Egyptian society is represented among the protesters – young and old, religious and secular, rural and urban. “That’s why you do get the feeling that a real revolution is going on here,” he says.

  11. Counterpunch. .. A look at Egypt…And the role of the Israel Lobby on US policy and the help that it gives Mubarek
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    A US writer from the Council on Foreign Relations..looks at the immense amount of money that the US gives to Israel,and how the survival of Mubarek is crucial to Israeli
    foreign policy,and their determination to see Mubarek survive despite the wishes of the Egyptian people…
    http://www.counterpunch.org/weir02042011.html>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  12. al jazeera reporter inside Tahrir , Tahir Squ protesters Comittee is actual trying to b formed now of 20 of them (plus 20 othrs) to meet Govt beleiving there message that ist step must be that Mubarek goes ist to start democracy proces is not getting thu

  17. just now from Tahrir Squ , twitteer , arMohsen: “A helicopter goes over #Tahrir Square every 5 minutes; very eerie feeling, but protestors chant, “We’re not afraid!” in response.

  18. Same CNN interview mentoned above ,
    Q ‘ Prime Minister Shafiq is asked about about the arrests of journalists and activists.’
    A “If there are problems it’s not intended,”

    !

  19. twitterer khatib: “In the city of Mansoura both Al Jazeera and independent Twitter sources indicate there are more than 250 thousand protesters “

  20. Hwass Cabinet minister live inteview , only Mubarek staying on as Pres till Sept can solve curent crisis issues and new electons can be called ‘we luv and suport democracy’

  21. el baradei interview now , wwte ‘problam is ‘outgoing’ Govt is totally managing th transition yet th Pres , VP , PM and most senior minister is all Army people , its a Military Govt Those protest groups calling for change must be big part of an inteim Govt

  22. ‘ Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan, joins the list of people warning against foreign meddling in Egypt, shortly after discussing the situation with US President Barack Obama.’

    your suport Barrack is over whelm

  23. tweeetrer ben gets it rite ” US interests in #Egypt: “stability,” Suez Canal, peace treaty w/Israel, gas, oil. Record shows democracy always low priority.”

  26. will sign off , not expect further develops tonite , Tahrir Squ is in darkness , 000’s still there It is a sea of tents , think may be 100k Govt holds spin meetings with varous Protest leeders , Govt still using its own TV channel for propaganda it is in control & compomising Cairo city outside of th Squ is returning ti normal shops openin and cars moving Protests abound in other Egypt cities incl massive crowds today at Alexandira , Mahala and Mansoura Triple Stalemate of Army , Potesters and Govt

  27. [FEDERAL Liberal MPs have been caught rorting the public purse by ordering more than $250,000 of printer toner in the lead-up to last year’s election.

    The Advertiser can reveal Liberal MPs went on a three-week blitz in late 2009 to beat a strict financial cap and stock up on office equipment.

    One Liberal figure claimed he was told by party headquarters to be “ruthless” in ordering taxpayer-funded supplies ahead of the 2010 campaign.

    West Australian Liberal MP Don Randall ordered $25,414.68 of toner cartridges for his office printer in three weeks while South Australian Patrick Secker spent $21,797.74.

    Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper spent $19,280.83. Ex-Liberal Michael Johnson’s order totalled $18,640.86.

    In just three weeks – after being told that a finance cap would be introduced from October 1, 2009 – Liberal MPs ordered $267,288 of printer cartridge toner, documents obtained through Freedom of Information show. Despite its parliamentary majority of 18, Labor MPs spent $127,488.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/liberals-caught-out-over-huge-election-printer-toner-splurge/story-e6frea8c-1226001106094

  28. A couple of thoughts about this poll:

    1. For TPP: “Note that areas directly affected by flood and cyclone
    have been excluded. The latest survey is based on 1140 interviews among voters”
    whereas for Levy: “The survey was conducted on February 4-6, 2011 and is based on 12xx interviews among adults aged 18 years and over.”

    2. The stratification tables for the flood levy suggest its on the better side of 48:52 for ALP (ie, rounded in Coalition favour) whereas the PV suggests its worse than 48:52 (i.e., rounded in ALP favour)

    3. Favouring Levy is interesting. It could be real (Julia has done better than Tony since the Essential poll finding the opposite, so perhaps she convinced people). My take is that there is an element of answering the way you think you should (when the public talk is about people being greedy in not wanting levy they may answer this question with a ‘yes I favour a levy’, whereas when it comes to voting intention they tell you what they really think!

    As an example of this reference all polls which say education and health are the most important issues and ALP always are better on these issues, and yet they dont win every election!

  30. [Note that areas directly affected by flood and cyclone
    have been excluded.]

    Thats an awful lot of people. Especially in Qld.

    Does this mean they did not poll in most Qld towns and cities?

  31. Rua:

    They need to make it clear exactly what they did here as if they have taken Qld without the north east the real result will be (likely) more pro Coalition. Brisbane city exclusion would balance this out somewhat, but all of this is guessing unless Newspoll explain!

    At the end of the day I would be pretty unhappy with this if I were the ALP.

    I am also pretty unhappy with it as there isnt much to trigger a move on Tony (perhaps for other things, but not because of anything from this poll)

    For Julia-loving-Tony-hating bloggers: How is she doing so badly against such a klutz if she is “all that”? Surely, you have to start on the ‘perhaps she aint shaping up’ path? Funny thing is that recent weeks have been when I have had most respect for her!

  33. [Note that areas directly affected by flood and cyclone have been excluded.]

    Why? So this poll is NOT truly random and unbiased in the sampling.

    Hmmmm, i smell a dead rat floating in the QLD floods. Maybe that should be a dead RABBIT.

  34. [I suspect Labor internal polling has already said the party is in trouble and that’s why we’ve seen what looks like a staff shake up and a change in attitude to governing.] #115

    I think you may be right, Pebbles. I suspect that we, as political tragics, may well be running a little ahead of the game at present. Most of us have dated Gillard’s better public performances from her standing firm on the flood levy against the well-orchestrated media hysteria opposing it. In particular, staring down Neil Mitchell’s undisguised hostility went down big in the leadership stakes, even if it meant zilch to Mitchell’s ageing audience. Gillard also seems aware of this and has looked considerably more at ease in her public and media appearances.

    The change of staff has probably also contributed. The Hartcher report suggested that Arbib-Sitar are no longer central to everything and that they may end up carrying the can for the dreadful election campaign.

    I think these are all positives for Labor. And that it’s no bad thing that strategy, purpose and achievement are more important over the longer term than current polling and responding to polls. No politician can ignore the polls, and they are a useful monitor for your progress, but doing and purpose is more critical.

    PS: this is showing me as “Anonymous”, which was what was happening last night when I couldn’t post. It should be Gorgeous Dunny, and I am logged in.

  36. BTW: what happened to Crikey and PB last night. It looked like a melting in the 40C heat.

    It’s time Crikey gets a more robust and reliable platform, else i wont renew my subs.

  38. I find this poll result almost incomrehensible. Obviously a bad result for Labor and Gilard, yet the key differentiating issue in this period (flood levy) is overall perceived as a plus for Labor. Odd. The only other cause could be that the jettisoning of all the Green programs has also harmed Labor more than the Sussex Street “brains trust” might have assumed.

    I agree with Pebbles that Labor’s oligarchs need to ignore the polls for a while and get on with governing. Any backflip now would be disastrous, as it was when they did it to Rudd. There is still a long time before the next election, and the economy will continue to improve.

    Obviously the spending cuts will need to be handled with care, and not focus groups.

  39. Mod Lib
    [1. For TPP: “Note that areas directly affected by flood and cyclone
    have been excluded. The latest survey is based on 1140 interviews among voters”
    whereas for Levy: “The survey was conducted on February 4-6, 2011 and is based on 12xx interviews among adults aged 18 years and over.”]
    Ah, thanks. That explains a lot! So all the coalition voters in Brisbane and regional Qld who would have been annoyed by Abbott’s remarks were excluded. The flood affected areas included over 15% of Australia’s population.

    People should take a pill and ignore this poll. The next one will be more relevant.

  40. Further thoughts on the info in Mod Libs 178: the different sample sizes reported here for 2PP and attitudinal questions is really rather noughty by Newspoll. It means they are internally stratifying their data within the reporting of a single poll. I am not a psephologist but if people did that with data in the area I work in the result would be binned. Survey questions and 2PP in this poll does not compare apples with apples.

  41. Finns – if you don’t renew your subs then you just leave all the air to the MSM – ghastly thought, eh!

    GeorgeousDunny – you and I share a great affection for Donny D and I’m glad I totally agree with your post at 184. I’ve heard some very favourable comments about JG over the weekend from people who told me a few weeks ago that she was finished. Doesn’t mean much cos they are rusted on shockjock listeners and vote accordingly but the comments have been made.

    I’m disappointed with the poll but JG is right – substance over style has to be the go for this year and I hope Labor caucus keeps that in mind. A couple of nervous nellies going to water won’t help.

  43. morning bludgers

    whilst this poll appears disappointing. There is nothing to be concerned about at this stage. If it means that Abbott stays in the top job longer, so be it.

  45. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
    Labor sending out MPs affected by floods to bag TAbbott on #floodlevy. No coalition MPs on #doors yet.

  46. following tweets by Latika Bourke and Paul Howes. It appears Hockey was on AM this morning. Not sure if I am understanding tweets correctly, but Hockey reckons asking for donations on email was wrong.

  50. Thanks for that @ 191, BH.

    I can usually work Don into any conversation. As far as I know, he was the first Australian politician to use opinion polling and market research (was already big in the US with LBJ and others). He probably got some of the ideas from Quentin Munro of McCann Eriksen. They were Labor’s ad agency then and probably preceded Australian Nationwide Opinion Polls (ANOP) which became Labor’s researchers about then.

    Munro (I assume that’s his surname – it’s over 40 years since I knew about it. I was in SA Tourism in Sydney then.) was so entranced with Dunstan that he moved from Sydney to Adelaide to handle the SA Government’s advertising business. It wouldn’t have been all that big a contract and the move for an executive was almost a demotion or at least a move sideways – such was Don’s charisma. It led to a huge boost to our business (trying to interest Sydney/NSW people in SA) I can tell you.

    In my opinion Don was about the only one who used polling correctly. Nothing he did was from polling, but a lot of what he wanted was controversial or even unpopular at the time. What he used research for was to find out what he or his government would have to do to make a desired policy acceptable to the public. And he’d work on shaping those attitudes towards acceptance, or at least minimising hostility to the change.

    Sadly, in more recent times careerists, most notably in the NSW Right but elsewhere too, have used opinion polls and focus groups for shaping policy. Always a daft move because if the public thinks about these things at all, it’s usually just what the media meme is suggesting. So you get the stupidity that it’s worth votes, at least in the marginal electorates, to beat up on the Boat People.

    If Gillard has learnt this lesson over the past few months, and having to bring the independents and Greens on board has probably helped, I’d guess that she’d be a runaway winner at the next election, whoever is LOTO.

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