Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first Newspoll of the year offers more grim news for the government, with Labor’s primary vote down a further two points from the final poll of last year to 32 per cent and the Coalition up three to 44 per cent. No two-party result has yet been provided, but past experience suggests it will land at either 52-48 or 53-47 depending on rounding. This compares with 50-50 in the final Newspoll of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The two-party result is 52-48, which probably flatters Labor a little due to rounding, while the Greens’ primary vote is steady on 14 per cent. Contrary to the findings of an Essential Research poll which gave Labor much better figures on voting intention, the poll also shows a fairly solid majority supporting the government’s proposed flood levy: 55 per cent are supportive (26 per cent strongly, 29 per cent somewhat), with 41 per cent opposed (25 per cent strongly, 16 per cent somewhat). Despite this, Tony Abbott has managed to claw back seven points on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails Julia Gillard 48 per cent (down four points) to 35 per cent (up three). Gillard’s approval rating is steady on 45 per cent but her disapproval is up four to 42 per cent, while Abbott’s numbers are little changed: approval steady on 42 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent.

All told, a most curious set of numbers.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 46 per cent and Labor to 38 per cent. The Greens are down one to 10 per cent, further widening the gap in their ratings between Newspoll and Essential (“others” are also consistently higher in Newspoll than Essential – in both cases, the latter has been much closer to the last election result).

My favourite of the supplementary questions is on the party with the best approach to funding flood reconstruction, on which Labor leads 36 per cent to 28 per cent. However, the Coalition performs significantly better on “who would you trust most to manage the program of rebuilding infrastructure”, on which Labor’s lead is 36 per cent to 35 per cent. Respondents were also asked for their opinion on each aspect of the government’s efforts to pay for flood reconstruction. Significantly, this shows strong support for the scrapping of “cash for clunkers”, a program that evidently contributed to perceptions of ongoing government wastefulness. This time the flood levy had 44 per cent support and 50 per cent opposition: better than last week’s Essential, but worse than Newspoll. Cuts in solar energy programs and the scrapping of the higher education capital development pool were strongly opposed.

Questions on leaders’ attributes show a deterioration in perceptions of both leaders since October, in similar ways: both are down sharply on intelligent, hard-working, capable and visionary, but Julia Gillard has also suffered on arrogant, out of touch and narrow-minded. The only question on which Tony Abbott performs better than Gillard is “superficial”, though in many cases there’s not much in it.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has again set aside a further question for release later in the day by Channel Ten, this time relating to whether the independents should continue supporting Labor or switch to the Coalition. It finds 43 per cent favouring the former option, against 30 per cent for the latter. Breakdowns by age and party support go much as you would expect.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,579 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. I thought I’d leave my thoughts.

    Two things:

    1. Gillard’s leadership is being scrutinized by the electorate. She’s making some unpopular calls that people don’t like and she’s going to have to provide real leadership before the polls bounce back in her favour.

    2. The more often the ALP attack Abbott, it seems to make him more popular with his base (one of his electoral tactics is to mobilize his base George W Bush style). It might be a good idea at this point to stop making Abbott the issue and focus on policy and other members of the Coalition front bench e.g Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister ROTFL!!!

  4. [update re frankc– he is OK had some cake and vino ?- fires not close- still no power BUT HE IS SAFE]

    More importantly, is his record collection safe?????

    Genes survive somehow, vinyl does not. 😉

  5. [Thanks for that, do you have a link or can you point me in the direction of the previous poll?]

    SK
    The last time I tried to link something it didn’t work, but if you go to newspoll.com.au and under latest polls click here and then click here for latest polls on the next page it takes you to list of polls. I just clicked on the federal voting intention 7/12.

    Sorry that sounds confusing doesn’t it.

  6. I’d go so far as to say that every time the ALP fire something at Abbott, he seems to absorb it and make him stronger. How on earth else does he experience a growing approval rating after what he did last week.

    The ALP should rethink their strategy on Abbott. Depriving him of oxygen might be a better solution

  8. Well, spur212.

    I did observe locally to someone, late arvo, that Julia has not really had anything to govern about. I mean she hasn’t manufactured going to war or the usual filthy crap that is used to divert attention. Even Obama never got to show up for Kev.

    So, I guess, floods, cyclones, floods, fires are the war, at the moment. Not that she engineered this equation, unlike one or three I could name.

    How to deal with it, is the thing. I thought she did pretty well.

    Hence my disappointment at this result.

  9. Trubbell at Mill,

    [More importantly, is his record collection safe????? ]

    Going by these greetings on Frank’s Facebook page, help would soon be on the way!

    [Happy Birthday Frank! From all your mates in the Australian Recorded Music Industry]

    [Happy Birthday from us too Frank! From all your pals in the American Recorded Music Industry. Hope your OK with these Fires! ]

    [Ditto from us too Frank – Happy Birthday! From all your friends in the UK Recorded Music Industry! We hope the bush fires don’t take you away from having a nice time on your birthday. ]

  10. Crikey Whitey

    I’d say Gillard is still finding her feet. Howard took 5 years to find his and Gillard has better ratings at this point than he did at this point in his career (which should have ended in 1987).

    Give her a couple of months and the ALP will start to rise upwards once again.

  13. I’d say that the voters are willing to give the levy a tick, but give Julia a kick so that she straightens up and flies right (which I think she’s beginning to do)

  14. Gweneth,

    That looks like a watered down version of the Laurie Oakes article, regarding Abbott’s similarity to Beazley and Andrew Robb’s campaign to become Deputy Liberal leader.

  15. [I’d go so far as to say that every time the ALP fire something at Abbott, he seems to absorb it and make him stronger. How on earth else does he experience a growing approval rating after what he did last week.]

    I think it’s more what they “attack” him with. Crying that Abbott is an obstructor seems less like a pertinent criticism and more like a political party crying that the other side is “being mean”

    Also, you may find that some of Abbott’s net gain may come at the cost of Gillard’s approval (there are many people who’d think you have to like one or the other.)

    Either way, these numbers are horrible and, like it or not, if the election were called in a month’s time, the ALP would have a mountain of a task to get reelected. (I’d put my money on a Coalition victory in such a scenario)

    Without any snide remarks from the Libs or the Rudd cult, I’d like to see more of what we have been seeing over the last couple of weeks ie. adamant decision making and keeping focus on what the government is doing, rather than what the opposition is saying. More front foot governing is in order.

    I suspect Labor internal polling has already said the party is in trouble and that’s why we’ve seen what looks like a staff shake up and a change in attitude to governing. Time will tell if this is a permanent thing or a desperate attempt to demonstrate they’ve changed.

  17. That is true, Spur.

    Difficult though it was, I listened to a repeat of Australia Talks tonight, interviewing Howard.

    In which he talked of finding his feet, making mistakes etc.

    Incidentally, I posted rather belatedly and the site was down anyway, that Allan Ramsey was being interviewed on radio local 891 about his recently published collection.

    Fascinating, as he usually is. He condemned both current Labor and Liberal as careerists, among other things.

    Can’t wait to get my hands on the book.

  18. I think Labor supporters should be pleased that these numbers are happening now and not in 2013. There is plenty of time to turn this around. But this time, it has to be done right. It’s not who governs, it’s how they govern.

    Both the Greens and the Coalition see high primary numbers because they appear to be willing to stand up for something. In the Greens case, ideology and policy and, in the Coalition’s case, leadership and decision making.

    Labor need to find that again. Stop trying to please all of the people all of the time. It doesn’t ever work like that.

  20. TSOP

    I think if the criticism was more on policy than politics or personality, something might begin to budge. The problem is that as Paul Keating said in an interview “He’s consolidated his right wing and all the nutters are behind him” which is exactly what George W. Bush did in the United States (with the help of that evil super genius Karl Rove).

  21. Crikey Whitey

    I heard Ramsay as well. He’s an angry man nowadays. Not sure why as he’s married to Laura Tingle (lucky bastard)

  22. Gweneth, I still think, as it stands, the government is limping. But it’s certainly not terminal. And I think early indicators suggest Labor are starting to learn from their mistakes.

    I also think there is credibility to comparing it to the Coalition in the late 90s, who went from populists who were still unsure how to govern, to (after getting some key legislation eg the GST passed) suddenly finding confidence in itself. By 2001, it managed to mold itself into the image of a team that may not do things you always want it to, but it will always do the things it thinks is right.

    The Coalition had one advantage over Labor, it had a landslide majority after 1996, so it could afford to take a hit in 1998. If the Coalition entered the 1998 election with the number that Labor did in 2010, Kim Beazley would’ve became PM.

  23. This newspoll is awful!

    Still, given that the Indies, Green, and Wilke are not keen on Abbott, and know that if he gets the big chair he will go to an election asap (and so they lose their influence) i cant see it being a big problem in the short term.

    I reckon Gillard is secure since its her leadership that the support of the Indies seems to turn on. Regardless of what that Savva person has been saying about Shorten, i don’t think he’s that stupid, and i smell a Liberal hack trying to distract from Abbott’s problems?

    Will be interesting to see what the polling does post the NSW election? I suspect that the ALP Feds could be suffering from pent up pissed off-ness there. Anyone seen any tables with a state breakdown of the latest newspoll??

    Still, depressing that the Fiberal rabble get this as a pick me up just as parliament starts again. 🙁

  25. guess someone will work out th varying dynamics involvd that from & incl th Fed electon Labors primary vote in 4 States & Federolly has gone to th Libs and not to th Greens , and at a graeter rate , hardly tink one can put all blame on MSN

  26. spur212 120

    I agree. We already know he’s a dick. But if he can be seen as a dick who can govern then the voters aren’t gonna care.

    Problem with the anti-GWB criticisms were a lot of them were directed at his intelligence. While they are fair questions to ask, the layman voter of middle America cared not for those criticisms. (In fact, saw such attacks as elitist and empathised with Bush)

    Also, never attack a politician based purely on ideology, unless there is a pragmatic reasoning behind it (eg. “the left will raise your taxes” or “the right will your wages/bonuses gone.”) The only people who care about ideological scaremongering are people who are politically aware. Those people tend to already have chosen sides and, if not, are well aware of if someone is an extremist or not.

    You have no idea how many times those mistakes were made by the American left (as well as calling out Bush’s religiousness)

  27. pebbs,

    The good thing is we go into parliament where condolences about the disasters we have experienced get put front and centre. And even Phony has to say how sad this tragedy is.

    Then after him saying how bad these disasters are she gets to nail his arse to the wall in QT about the levy.

    And the levy will go through and she will have it on record for prosperity that as sad as he said it all is, he is so small minded that he voted against helping these people rebuild their lives.

  28. Anyway. Lots of water (pardon the pun) to go under the bridge before this matters a wit. Julia is in charge and I, for one, am very glad that she is in these times of chaos and disruption. Nite all! Lets hope the winds keep the fires at bay for now.

  33. Only thing space kidette is that he isnt against helping people rebuild there lives, he just thinks there is a better way to get the money.

  35. TSOP

    Part of the problem is that logic doesn’t work on Abbott’s base. He’s got them emotionally under his control.

    It might be an interesting tactic for the ALP to actually say nice things about him instead of engaging him in the cut and thrust.

  36. “Without any snide remarks from the Libs or the Rudd cult, I’d like to see more of what we have been seeing over the last couple of weeks ie. adamant decision making and keeping focus on what the government is doing, rather than what the opposition is saying. More front foot governing is in order”.

    Quite, TSOP.

    And, ooh, Gweneth, SK et al. I admire your optimism. Though when moving house once, I briefly put my vinyls in what seemed to be a not so hot car. They played rather oddly after that, kind of craggy mountains and steep gullies.

    I was so annoyed, I tried to kill them, jumping up and down on them in my (then) high heels.

    As they say, We will survive. And they do, and still rock.

    Spur, anyone should be so lucky as to be in league with Laura.

    Goodnight also. I might pretend I am going to bed, but in reality I have to clear the dishes and continue watching, finally, Ricky Gervais, The Art of Lying. Too funny. Must have regained my sense of humour. Ghastly past, over the last year or more.

  37. al jazeera TV , confirm there correspondent Ayman has been arrested , says he not th fist newsman arrested from al jazeera and form other news Co s

  39. Report , Today Muslum Bro , and some othr Protesdt leaders , met Suileman , and Muslum Bro say they do not seek Pres , just seek Mubarek to go now and a democrat Govt

  42. more live TV shots ex alexandrai , massive crowds , streets crammed horizontal accross two streets and stretch back far eye can see

  43. AFFR report , VP Suleiman has turned down demands from th Protester leeders Meeting for Mubarek to go now , for VP to take all mubarek powers , to suspend emergensy powers , and to disolve parlament

  45. TV interview with Muslum Bro spokesman Fatouh , says (selectiv) Protest Leaders Meeting with Suileman was to them a ‘reconnassance ‘ meeting , says Suliemen would not agree to therre ist & key Demand fro Mubarek to stand down now , and he not think Govt is serious at all even to there demand to suspend Mubareks dictatorial emergencys powers Does not trust Govts intent

  47. tweeterer hamilton “The government is losing its PR war. Tahrir crowd – young fashionable women, old men, young families from the countryside. There’s a new energy in Tahrir today.

  48. diff souse apart from Muslum Bro , reporter says “ members of the ‘opposition’ have told him that they did not think the government’s offer of a committee on constitutional changes was a serious attempt to end the stand-off. They are still demanding that President Mubarak should leave before they engage in serious talks. “

  50. rwitterer mstack “ was just very briefly detained by army at egyptian museum. they let me go but mokhabarat stole my camera.”

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