Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition

Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.

The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).

The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. [People will not blame Myki on the Libs and to look to scrap a 1.5 Billion dollar program would be considered a waste.
    The libs will have to come up with alternative policies on transport yes, but it may take a few years for these alternative ideas to have problems.]
    marky marky 199, the voters expect change, not excuses, not cover ups. The Libs gave the impression they could do better and fix the problems. I can’t see people, after 4 years, accepting a government blaming the past government for the present government’s failure to act.

  5. [people are also willing to give the other mob a go as well for a few years even if their are problems]

    Now that I vehemently disagree with. This is the age of instant love and instant rejection all at the click of a button.

  8. Hang on Labor did a very good job of blaming Kennett for eight years for a lack of services. And what happens if Bailleau delivers on some of his policies.
    No good suggesting he will not. I think he probably will not but will it be a big enough reason to boot him out?
    And what should not be forgotten is the fact that he has only a one seat majority and this will mean very few cutbacks on services.

  12. Who’s been keeping up with Ron’s and Gusface’s coverage of Egypt.?

    I’m losing a lot of sleep. Today is the “day of departure” so maybe this is it.

  14. [Hang on Labor did a very good job of blaming Kennett for eight years for a lack of services. And what happens if Bailleau delivers on some of his policies.]

    Labor was in a terminal condition in Victoria prior to Kennett’s elevation not dissimilar to NSW Labor ATM. Labor under Brumby was no where near as smelly.

  15. History tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that.
    Unless as i said their is a massive scandal or economic problems during his term.

  16. [History tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that.
    Unless as i said their is a massive scandal or economic problems during his term.]

    Like I said there is a new paradigm in play. The old rules are no longer rules.

  17. [marky markyPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 6:58 pm | PermalinkHistory tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that.
    Unless as i said their is a massive scandal or economic problems during his term.
    ]

    Tell that to David and John Tonkin, plus Borbidge and Carpenter- even though the other two weren’t elected per sel.

  18. Cuppa,

    Isn’t it strange, though? M Scott is totally incapable of putting on big stuff (Egypt, Yasi) in real time and without ahem bias. He has to go.

  19. [Tom HawkinsPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 7:00 pm | PermalinkHistory tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that.
    Unless as i said their is a massive scandal or economic problems during his term.
    Like I said there is a new paradigm in play. The old rules are no longer rules.
    ]

    August 2010 is a prime example.

  20. [And what should not be forgotten is the fact that he has only a one seat majority and this will mean very few cutbacks on services.]
    There is not doubt at the last election people voted against Labor and want change. What you’re suggesting is that Ted will not provide that change in those areas that provided the most angst. That equals disappointment and anger and as you say, he can’t afford to lose seats.
    As for Kennett the fact that Labor had a very popular leader for the 2002 and 2006 elections surely played a bigger part in Labor’s success than they’re spray against Kennett. Also the Libs were a rabble for years.

  22. I would agree with that. But if Bailleau helps the middle classes and is a stable government he will more than likely pick up seats than lose them. Likely that eastern suburbs seat will swing to him than go to Labor. People will more than likely unless as mentioned boot him out over time and four years is not enough i think to do so.

  23. [History tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that.]
    I maybe wrong here but I think you’ll find history also shows first term governments tend to lose seats, not always I admit.

  25. Yes history does suggest this, but do not forget that Bracks increased his vote significantly in 2002 and whilst i would agree the Libs were a rabble than i just feel it is possible that four years to change governments for the sake of it.

  27. Tone is getting crap ratings (good one!) but Jules isn’t exactly hitting the heights

    Gillard approval down 3 dissaproval up 4 and Kev breathing down her neck in preferred leader

    As I have said for a while now after observing Ms Gillard. She is not a leader and has trashed most of Labor’s advantages that Rudd developed. She has failed to live up to people’s image of her, falling far short, and is on borrowed time and will continued to deteriorate with Labor from here. I reckon she will be gone around mid-year-ish.

    Rudd will probably end up the preferred leader simply because Labor has very few people at the moment able to capture the public’s attention. He won’t take the job of course even if offered by a desperate failing Labor government. So Gillard will evetnaully be replaced by some less on the nose seat-warmer in the hope that change, any change will change their fortunes.

    Ms Gillard’s only hope is if Abbott really does something abhorrent. But even then she will struggle. If Abbott manages to keep Gillard in the game then it will be Turnbull.

    Turnbull will be the next PM. It wont be Hockey. This will be Turnbull’s last chance at the job as he will retire otherwise. In any leadership contest he will demand the job or send the Liberals into oblivion.

    The Liberals would then do what Labor did to Rudd, use him to get into power, always with the intention of replacing him with a tired old factional zombie.

  28. Puff, when you get back. See my previous post re your situation.

    And…….this is sort of funny.

    Someone just told me that the police in the course of their investigations into the murder I spoke of, checking out the street, discovered a crop of marijuana a few houses down; not to mention a small cache of illegal firearms, etc. Not that the individual is the murderer, but, dear me. Ill wind.

  29. Finns

    [Our Hill has been very forceful with Mubarak where as Obama has been rather pissweak]

    She really sank the boot into Mubarak when she said

    [“Egypt’s government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the needs of Egyptians.”]

    the day before Mubarak sacked the government. And I’m not sure they are responding to the people’s needs by continuing the dictatorship.

  30. So, if I have it right, the Coalition wants to build lots of dams, but none in particular, and it wants them to be either empty or full.

    You can’t criticize them for not knowing what they want.

  32. (A quick scroll over TP)
    [Yes history does suggest this, but do not forget that Bracks increased his vote significantly in 2002 and whilst i would agree the Libs were a rabble than i just feel it is possible that four years to change governments for the sake of it.]
    Anyway I guess it doesn’t matter what we think. We’ll see what happens.

  33. Mark Latham was leader of the ALP because he had Gillards support. Kevin Rudd was leader of the ALP because he had Gillards support.

    At the moment nobody in the Federal ALP has the numbers to to form a bridge game, let alone a leadership bid.

  34. [Thomas PainePosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 7:10 pm | Permalink Tone is getting crap ratings (good one!) but Jules isn’t exactly hitting the heights
    Gillard approval down 3 dissaproval up 4 and Kev breathing down her neck in preferred leader
    As I have said for a while now after observing Ms Gillard. She is not a leader and has trashed most of Labor’s advantages that Rudd developed. She has failed to live up to people’s image of her, falling far short, and is on borrowed time and will continued to deteriorate with Labor from here. I reckon she will be gone around mid-year-ish.
    Rudd will probably end up the preferred leader simply because Labor has very few people at the moment able to capture the public’s attention. He won’t take the job of course even if offered by a desperate failing Labor government. So Gillard will evetnaully be replaced by some less on the nose seat-warmer in the hope that change, any change will change their fortunes.
    Ms Gillard’s only hope is if Abbott really does something abhorrent. But even then she will struggle. If Abbott manages to keep Gillard in the game then it will be Turnbull.
    Turnbull will be the next PM. It wont be Hockey. This will be Turnbull’s last chance at the job as he will retire otherwise. In any leadership contest he will demand the job or send the Liberals into oblivion.
    The Liberals would then do what Labor did to Rudd, use him to get into power, always with the intention of replacing him with a tired old factional zombie.
    ]

    And here is TP with his version of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgb2hrjJXRk

  35. [As I have said for a while now after observing Ms Gillard. She is not a leader and has trashed most of Labor’s advantages that Rudd developed.]

    That’s all I needed to read to see that it’s the same old same old.

    What will you say if JG is still the PM in 2015?

  36. Gee, ‘Gutlessface’ at 174.

    Do not cry over the meanie doctor.

    If I had billowing bosoms, you would be welcome to lay down your poor little head.

  37. [History tells us that governments do not get booted out after one term so i will tend to go with that]

    History shows it is not unprecedented. The reason it rarely happens though is:

    1) Parties often come to government from opposition on the back of a big wave of changing seats

    2) The opposition party, only recently returned to opposition from govt is in a period of confusion and rebuilding. Often it is in denial and still not aware that the mistakes it is currently making were what caused it to lose power.

    3) Voters are far more forgiving to freshman governments. They’re aware that the govt still needs to find its feet and are willing to be patient. Said political party’s ideas are still fresh and new.

    So it’s true that it’s difficult to unseat a first term government, it has happened. But to do so, you need a combination (or all) of: the government having a narrow seat majority going into the next election, the opposition aware of its previous mistakes and looking forward, and the government having made some unforgivable blunders.

  38. Bring back Latho!
    Then we’d have a pair of mad buggers going head to head.

    They were always at each others throats when Latho was leader if I remember correctly?
    No love lost there 😉

  41. ruawake

    saw your post from earlier on. My oven is an ILVE. I know what to do now, if there is a power failure whilst oven is in operation. Mind you, I used to have a Chef. It was a great oven.

  42. [ also intend to add to the $83K I have already won for the week.
    What will you be doing – trying to think up sarcasm and unintelligent acronyms? Wow]

    Hmm

    so fib central have sent a cyber assasin

    All i can say is

    TRY HARDER,EAGER NINJA

  44. [Isn’t it strange, though? M Scott is totally incapable of putting on big stuff (Egypt, Yasi) in real time and without ahem bias. He has to go.]

    It’s been during the past two years (or so) that the standard of their news and current affairs has gone down at least to that of the OO (IMO it sometimes even goes below that).

    That’s during the tenure of Mark Scott.

    Let’s remember that Mr Scott once considered standing as a Liberal Party candidate, and worked for a NSW Coalition government. He was appointed by the Board of Directors – a body at the time of his appointment heavily stacked with Rodent operatives.

    News and current affairs is CORE abc responsibility.

    It’s Chartered as a service to the Australian community, and as a counterweight to the commercial media.

    If they get that wrong, something’s very wrong WITH the abc.

    Abuse of news and current affairs should have heavy consequences.

    Just like any other publicly-funded institution would face consequences if it abused its position or widely flouted its responsibilities.

    Can you imagine the scandal if, FOR EXAMPLE, the Tax Office decided they would waive taxes for certain favoured groups. Or Centrelink decided that certain favoured recipients should receive double the pension rate. Or Defence decided that half their recruits would not have to undergo regular training.

    Heads would roll, Enquiries would be called, and it would be the Scandal of the Decade.

  46. Well I have been impressed by the ABC today. Despite repeated assertions by individuals that nothing was being done ABC newsradio continually said that crews were in action, that help was being delivered, the state government and Federal government were doing an amazing job. They informed people about the difficulty in getting crews in to some areas and were generally supportive.

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