Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.
The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).
The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.
2,046 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition”
try this show by BBC about Monkton http://www.megavideo.com/?v=XCXK3Z8N
HA I was first! 😀
For those Sydneysiders on PB, 2UE/Radio Liberal’s new lineup starts on Monday:
Breakfast – Jason Morrison
Mornings – David Oldfield
Early Afternoon – Michael Smith
Drive – Paul Murray
6 – 9PM – Two Murrays
9PM – Midnight – Stuart Boking
John Stanley & Tim Webster relegated to weekends.
And Sports Today got axed – Shocker!
Jack the Insider seems to be spruiking for Turnbull on his blog.
I hear that the after affects of cyclone anthony means an awful lot of rain for victoria again, and so soon after the last floods. Take care down there.
@ 4516 previous thread
[Interesting to see that, not only do Liberal voters prefer Abbott, but they would much prefer Hockey over Turnbull as an alternative leader to Abbott. ]
In my opinion, Liberal voters are fools to prefer Hockey. He is a lightweight policywise and has a nasty streak.
Yes, we are due for lots of rain. I am in the suburbs, so should be okay Country Vic will be getting more flooding.
So once again we’ve got Murdoch in an unholy alliance with John Singleton to get Abbott into government – sickening!
I’m not Julia’s greatest fan on this earth, but the thought of that toad sliding in government makes my skin crawl.
BG, from the previous thread.
[Is the judge blaming the state (queensland) and the company? I’m confused.]
It looks suspiciously like the Magistrate has politicised the case from the Bench.
I have “never” come across that before in my life.
My father was a Magistrate and as blue a Torie as they come, but would “never” have made a statement like that from the Bench or even remotely considered it.
His colleagues of the time wouldn’t have either, I’m sure.
Four corners promotion re The Real Julia
Liberal voters are fools
[Will Cardinal Pell be hearing Tony’s confession on the iphone?]
Not a chance …. he’s still having trouble working out how to use the landline.
Seems like morgan has done a ppm and approvals. Abbotts approvals have taken a hit.
Lizzie @ 6
[In my opinion, Liberal voters are fools to prefer Hockey. He is a lightweight policywise and has a nasty streak.]
So he’s just like Tone then you mean ? 😉
I hear that the after affects of cyclone anthony means an awful lot of rain for victoria again, and so soon after the last floods. Take care down there. ]
I hope the Victorian flood victims don’t expect to get any support from the Coalition with regard to raising a levy to help rebuild the place.
This could play out “very” badly for Abbott in the near term!
according to the Liberal talking heads, vic has insurance for these floods (unlike Qld), so why do we need to go cap in hand to the feds?
18 point turn around in net approval. Approval down 11 and dissapproval up 7.
Hi evan 🙂
You forgot to add Miker jefferies to your list
He does midnigh to dawn
Oh and GO KEVVIE 😀
I wonder what his ratings would have been if there was more widespread knowledge re Abbott sending email on day cyclone was about to hit, asking for anti flood donations?
[In my opinion, Liberal voters are fools to prefer Hockey. He is a lightweight policywise and has a nasty streak.]
Yeah, they are the two most important qualifications for a Liberal politician! 😉
Yup. Same but different.
[18 point turn around in net approval. Approval down 11 and dissapproval up 7. ]
So it’s all going according to plan for Tone, eh! 😉
There you go. In the one state Abbott has campaigned to politicise their own tragedy the most, they love him.
It seems to be at least an equal worst PPM and approval for Abbott. Perhaps a worst on record.
Acutally its not worst PPM- rudd smashed him in the early polls.
Abbott’s losing his steam. Another poll, another message saying that voters are ready to dump the government but not for Abbott. Another leader and the government’s goose is cooked.
It’s gonna be a race to see which party realises the err of its ways and fixes them first. The ALP with their poor presentation and debate or the Coalition, with their bad leadership and blind obstructionist tactics.
First one to fix their respective issue wins the next election comfortably.
Now I know the tide is turning — I don’t believe it!
Your comment has been published:
As usual, the Australian allows fools to stretch very long bows in order to make a ridiculous point!
When, and only when, the opposition admits it wasted billions upon billions during its term in office, I’ll begin to listen to such sad arguments.
The Labor govt. has taken the bold step of being transparent in their dealings, good and bad. Had Howard undergone such rigorous public scrutiny he would have been laughed out of office. regional rorts and AWB anyone?
I wanna see a Newspoll before I stand by my conclusion.
The poll twists the knife:
It seems he can do what he wants to Queensland and they’ll still approve of him.
* Campaign against the levy to fix their infrastructure? Tick.
* Solicit donations to the Libs for said campaign? Tick.
* Go on holidays and get a tan while Queensland drowns? Tick.
Makes want to chunder, actually.
Their privatepollingprobably has been telling him this all along.
[There you go. In the one state Abbott has campaigned to politicise their own tragedy the most, they love him.]
Not in this household, they don’t.
You have to make allowances for “some” Qlders. They can be a bit slow in catching on! 😉
Abbott won’t be too pleased at the result when they do though!
Bushfire @ 30
I’m ashamed of Vic. We seem to be leaning Lib.
JTI published my comment and responded
Fri 04 Feb 11 (03:54pm)
I just don’t understand what people see in Tony Abbott. He has the policy nous of a gnat. And failure to set the right tone with this series of disasters has be a sign he is not quite right for the role. Perhaps he will always be Mr 49.9%.
As a Lib supporter, there are a half a dozen or so people I would prefer as leader. ]
[Jack the Insider
Fri 04 Feb 11 (04:01pm)
It seems to be a common sentiment from a great many Liberal supporters, BG. I guarantee you, that news will be troubling the Liberal Party room next week. ]
PVO just showed how truly stupid he really is:
He thinks iPads cannot be used with the NBN.
It only matters how the poll compares with previous ones.
That was a really clever comment to JTI.
Coming apparently from a Lib supporter, it had punch. From a Labor type, it would have lacked gravitas 😆
Not sure that I really liked JTI’s piece, myself.
BB, you’re talking about 110 respondents there. The margin of error on those figures is about 10 per cent.
[Another leader and the government’s goose is cooked.]
doutbful. the best thing gillard could do is forget the polls and focus on delivery which she seems to be doing. polls are meaningless this far out just ask kim beazley. thankfully is seems we are moving away from the focus on week to week polls and gaming the result. the libs need to be 10 points in front at this stage.
Bushfire Bill 30
Queensland is a very conservative state. Outside of Brisbane it’s Abbott land.
I am concerned about Victoria’s numbers. If Labor’s support softens there, it’s all over for them (regardless of who is leader.) However, I am gonna hazard a guess and say that is a Baillieu honeymoon effect. While the 2010 results in Victoria were very high, I haven’t seen any factors that would suddenly pull the Libs up there, with the exception of a brand new Lib state govt that hasn’t really done anything wrong yet.
[Oil company to keep licence despite spill
Posted 16 minutes ago
The Federal Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, has decided to allow the company responsible for the 2009 Montara oil spill in the Timor Sea to keep operating in Australia.]
Marn Ferson would never get my vote.
[I’m ashamed of Vic. We seem to be leaning Lib.]
Same deal. 145 respondents, margin of error 8 per cent.
I suppose I’m adding in the recent election.
[the libs need to be 10 points in front at this stage.]
They weren’t last term and they almost won.
Obviously I would like to see some more opinion polls before I make this call but this does remind me of the 2005-06 period when everybody was sick of the Howard govt (and angry over Workchoices) but were not sold on Beazley. And no matter what Howard did or how much disapproval there was in the govt, all the ALP could muster up was 51-49 leads. It was Beazley who was holding down the team. Everyone knew it. We could be witnessing the same thing here.
Amazed for the second time in 10 mins … PVO just let the Labor guy have the last word over Julian Leeser AND hit back that the BER propaganda is a furphy.
jenauthor @ 28
Is that a victory or is that a victory. Congrats 🙂
Tone is getting crap ratings (good one!) but Jules isn’t exactly hitting the heights 👿
Gillard approval down 3 dissaproval up 4 and Kev breathing down her neck in preferred leader 😆
[Same deal. 145 respondents, margin of error 8 per cent.]
Right you are. I should make it clear that any analysis made, assumes the numbers are roughly correct.
However the main numbers as well as the leadership numbers are reflective of what we have been witnessing qualitatively.
Off to watch the news
:kiss: to Finns when he shows up
Really? You think they’ll get behind Hockey? Robb? Bishop? Any of those three will trot out the same lazy lines Abbott’s giving us, given little twists to suit their personalities (Hockey – bluster; Bishop – bizarre; Robb – zzzzz).
Abbott’s an idiot. But then who isn’t over there? Put any of them in the spotlight for long enough and they’ll have a string of gaffes as long as your arm. Plus, none of them look keen to take responsibility for anything. Hockey, the most palatable by default, is a classic buck-passer. Loves his rhetoric, leaves the details for someone else to sort out.
Turnbull might have a shot. But these voters who are backing the party under Abbott won’t find Turnbull’s approach nearly as palatable. He’ll lose a lot, gain a bit. He’ll have the climate change nay-sayers on the wrong foot for a start.
[While the 2010 results in Victoria were very high, I haven’t seen any factors that would suddenly pull the Libs up there, with the exception of a brand new Lib state govt that hasn’t really done anything wrong yet.]
TSOP — NSW will come back to Labor after about 3 months of a state Lib govt.
They will not have a honeymoon … like Abbott, the state libs have been very lazy policy-wise … it is only that Labor is so past its used-by date, they will fall in by default.
Once the light is shined upon them … they will be a mess and Fed Labor will look very good.
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