Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition

Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.

The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).

The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 41
1 … 3 4 5 … 41

  1. Victoria

    Try resetting the clock on the oven and see if there is a timer. If our power goes out, the oven (also european) will not work until the timer is reset.

  2. [MytwobobsworthPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:55 pm | PermalinkTSOP
    How so? You seriously can’t see what a suicidal blunder it would be to say “Oops! Our bad! We shouldn’t have dumped Person A for Person B. We’re now gonna dump Person B in favour of Person A, again”
    That is what happened with Howard. Lazarus rising!
    ]

    The ALP did it Beazley – both times he didn’t win.

    See my previous results the public can tolerate Liberals Recycling – but pay out accordingly when the ALP do it.

  4. Taking William’s point on the very small samples within single states in this poll, I don’t think people should draw conclusions at the State level. For the national trend, like TSOP, I would wait till the next Newspoll, if they every publish one.

    Regarding Qld, I would wait till the next substantial poll of that State. I have said previously that my perception was that Bligh had done superbly, Gillard not as well but still OK, and Abbott terribly. I cannot believe that won’t harm Abbott.

  6. Whoops! Sorry for the culinary confusion! I was going to suggest as the next alternative that CW should invite you around for dinner! Glad all is under control! A part cooked lamb roast isn’t much fun, and its a bit wet outside to dig a hole in the back yard and cook it in a camp oven!

  7. One more, Victoria.

    Try contacting an Ilve reseller (store) tomorrow. If all else fails.

    Sounds delicious, despite! Bon Appetit!

  8. [Victoria

    Try resetting the clock on the oven and see if there is a timer. If our power goes out, the oven (also european) will not work until the timer is reset.]

    Mmm. Good thought bbp.

  11. [Brumby did some good things their was one area in which he was most ineffective and that was public transport]

    Public Transport and planning approvals were the two big issues in my mind. Myki took too long and cost too much. Madden became the face of arrogant government overruling local government and community concerns with a swipe of his hand. The Windsor Hotel ‘issue’ cost many city votes.

    Labor are a very real prospect to return to government at the next election IMO. I think Baillue will disappoint a lot of people and within 12 months will be thought of as ‘no better than the other mob’. So long as Labor can remain scandal free they are in with a real shot.

  12. Thanks to everyone for your sugestions

    I knew that if you ask, sometimes you shall receive.

    It works now. Resetting the clock did the trick.

    Bludgers you rock!!!

  13. Say what you like about their ABC but a new series of New Tricks is on at 8.30pm tonight!
    One of my favoutite shows

    Also love the theme song, even if it is a rip off of the Travelling Wilburies 🙂
    [it’s alright, it’s okay
    doesn’t really matter if your old and grey
    it’s alright I say it’s okay
    listen to what I say
    it’s alright doing fine
    doesn’t really matter if the sun don’t shine
    it’s alright I say its okay
    getting to the end of the day
    High tech, low tech, take your pick
    you cant teach an old dog a brand new trick
    I don’t care what anybody says]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzVm_jh8AkA

  15. Friday night was aleways fish & chip night, from the wonderful chippe in our area. (I think the proprietors are Lebonese or something. The herbs and spices in the home-made hamburger patties are nom nom nom)

  18. I’ll have a think about the problem and respond on the weekend. Is your person a rellie or dependent? You are not working for a provider, are you.

  19. Speaking of assistance, a question to any people present with access to economic data.

    Does anyone have access to economic data on average incomes by profession (especially for corporate CEOs and executives) for OECD countries from any of Towers Watkins, Mercer or Hay Group? I want to do some private reasearch but their data acecss costs are rather steep. This would be similar data to that referred to in the APC inquiry into executive salaries in Australia, but for all the other countries.

  20. Tom @ 161

    It is interesting how in the last 15 years or so planning has become a real ‘hot button’ issue in state politics – you are right that Brumby was on the nose over planning, as was Kennett in the 1990s. In NSW, planning has got the state government into lots of hot water.

    Part of the problem as I see it (from knowledge of the NSW and Vic systems) is that good systems were put in place in the 1070s and 80s. They were prescriptive, they were transparent, they were detailed and all sides – developers, planning authorities, stakeholders like residents – had a pretty good idea of what or what was not allowed.

    Over the years, various governments have stepped in an arbitrary way, and the system has become less transparent, even more arbitrary, more open to interpretation and more open to pressure from those with dollars to spare. In NSW, what was a good piece of legislation introdcued by the Wran government in about 1978 had started to be whittled back by Brereton in the mid 80s. It has got worse and worse, and the general public have been locked out and angry as a result.

  21. I hate to dissappoint you Tom, but baring an economic maliaise i cannot see Bailleau being booted out for two terms or perhaps three. He will dissappoint people but not enough to lose next time round because he will do very little in this term to upset people because he only has a one seat majority. I also think that Daniel Andrews will not be a winner. Governments rarely Tom go after one term unless their is a massive scandal and i think Bailleau is astute enough to realise possible problems.
    Labor has got a lot of work to do to win back the confidence of people in Victoria and it will in my mind take two or perhaps three terms to do it.
    One issue that i think will grow in the next few years and will be a headache and one for all governments is climate change and natural disasters because they are going to happen more often and worsen. Governments will have to respond to them and do so effectively.

  22. BB @ 30
    They really are banana benders and prawn peelers.
    This is just more research that proves it. I was in Qld again in October and they don’t even comprehend what you are saying when you ask them for road directions. Why ask them? – well their signage/lack of is so confusing.

  23. [Why ask them? – well their signage/lack of is so confusing.]
    We have solved that problem in Adelaide – there are no road signs 🙂

  26. Dr John

    My admiration for Qlders has grown considerably over the past few months. The leadership shown by those in authority, and the Qlders response to these challenges has been excellent.

  27. I luv the banana benders on PB
    Scorps the Space Kid and all the rest (even Toothy used to liven things up 😉

    STOP the QUEENSLANDER BASHING!!!!

  29. [Also love the theme song, even if it is a rip off of the Travelling Wilburies]
    You’re right. I hadn’t thought of that before. ‘The End of the Line’.

  30. [victoriaPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 6:19 pm | PermalinkDr John
    My admiration for Qlders has grown considerably over the past few months. The leadership shown by those in authority, and the Qlders response to these challenges has been excellent.
    ]

    Maybe so,

    But in normal circumstances Dr John is indeed correct – Quincelanders are in nation within Australia.

    Having Joh as leader for so long does that.

  32. blackburnpseph 170

    I agree 100%; the integrity of planning practice, as opposed to the complexity of planning legislation, has gone backwards greatly in my working lifetime, starting in the mid 80s. Maybe Qld has improved slightly, but the rest have gone backwards. here in SA the process for the Buckland Park development is a classic example of the problems you cite in NSW and Vic.

    I certianly blame politicians of both sides for interferring as you say, but also two other groups.

    First developers. Groups like UDIA effectively have a stated purpose of removing any controls over developers.

    Second voters. While State governments are guilty of corrupting such systems, so are Councils. This enables States to justify intervention. “Rats in the Ranks” could have been made in any Australian State; there are many suitable examples. But in my experience, most people give their local Council very little scrutiny. Even when there is a problem, few people are aware of who is causing it. Democracy only works when voters pay attention. Local government is the least scrutinised level of government.

  34. [Dr John

    My admiration for Qlders has grown considerably over the past few months. The leadership shown by those in authority, and the Qlders response to these challenges has been excellent.]
    I must agree. I shudder to think how the SA public service, or Adelaide generally, would cope with a flood or cyclone bearing down on it. I thought the Qld SES were brilliant. They did a better job of evacuating pets from disaster zones than the USA did for hospital patients in New Orleans.

  35. Big Thor here (ACT) for the last 2 hours, 20 mils. Computer unhooked. Looking forward to Cairo’s’Ron. Big stuff after prayers (2AM AEDT).

  39. I reckon that Dr John is a Kiwi 😉
    [THERE was some powerful cyclone coverage from New Zealand’s stuff.co.nz, which triumphed in its hunt for a Kiwi angle when it interviewed ex-pats such as Loulou Lawley in Townsville: ” ‘I just holed up in my bathroom with some Valium. Being from Wellington I was only scared for about two hours. The average person was petrified for about 10 and possibly still is.’ She said although people were not supposed to be on the roads yet, from her sixth-floor apartment she could already see cars driving around. ‘Typical bloody Queenslanders.’ ” Typical bloody Queenslanders, consider yourselves saluted.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/in-other-news/story-e6frgdk6-1225999762597

  40. When the coalition government in Victoria fail to live up to their hype, those with high expectations will be extremely disappointed. Note I say ‘when’ not ‘if’. They promised open government, already the signs are not looking good. They’ll find a reason to keep the smart meters and myki, you watch. The transport problems will remain as Victoria’s population continues to grow. They’ll find reasons not to expand the transport system.
    People were angry with the previous government over these issues and want change. If they don’t get it and fast, they will remain angry and blame the government of the day.

  41. [Say what you like about their ABC but a new series of New Tricks is on at 8.30pm tonight!
    One of my favoutite shows]
    Hi vera
    I agree about New Tricks being a great series but I fear from reading the synopses that they are repeats.

  42. Yep some 37 years ago. I also hope Bailleau is around for one term.
    I would somewhat agree he is not doing a great job at present, but they are all a new team looking at doing things differently so they need to get a hang of their portifolios, and briefs regarding current directions.
    I don’t like the Grazing in the Alpine National Parks and extended periods to shoot Ducks but these policies mean nothing to average joe public.
    Whilst the Libs job has been ineffective it is far better than the first few months of Kennett’ reign. In addition i would also suggest that the Labor Opposition has been fairly hopeless in first few months as well. Lets wait until they Budget and see if these Liberals show their true colours regarding spendng to private sector.

  43. [When was the last one term State Government?]

    Who cares? That’s irrelevant. Politics and media have changed forever. A new paradigm.

  45. [In addition i would also suggest that the Labor Opposition has been fairly hopeless in first few months as well. Lets wait until they Budget and see if these Liberals show their true colours regarding spendng to private sector.]
    So you expect an opposition to be effective, firstly, over Christmas and secondly against a government in a honeymoon period. Just a little over ambitious don’t you think?

  48. [I don’t like the Grazing in the Alpine National Parks and extended periods to shoot Ducks but these policies mean nothing to average joe public.]
    It’s not what they’ll do that will be a problem for them, it’s what they won’t do IMHO.

  49. Gary, whilst i tend to agree with you to a point, people are also willing to give the other mob a go as well for a few years even if their are problems.
    People will not blame Myki on the Libs and to look to scrap a 1.5 Billion dollar program would be considered a waste.
    The libs will have to come up with alternative policies on transport yes, but it may take a few years for these alternative ideas to have problems.
    I actually Health could be their bogy as they never are to handle this area very well. If they start cutting public healthcare which their ideological views tend to suggest ththen this will hurt them. Transport i think takes time to materialise and people will be willing to give them a go in this area i thnk for a little while.

  50. [I don’t like the Grazing in the Alpine National Parks and extended periods to shoot Ducks but these policies mean nothing to average joe public.]
    What about those puppy farms?
    Thought I heard that Ted said he would shut them down before the election?
    Has he?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 41
1 … 3 4 5 … 41