Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.
The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).
The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.
I think a few people have missed the second line here. 😉
[And it could probably be just as accurate to say that Rudd would bolt it in! ]
[All supposition and we will never know! ]
Crikey-whitey
He was lifting himself mostly with a bit of help but the last couple of days he has lost strength (might be the hot weather even if he is under air-con) and last night when he got out of bed he couldn’t stand up for long and I had to manhandle him back into bed. Then in the morning to transfer him from his own bed into the hospital bed in the lounge room (complicated yes but it is all to do with the service providers, he can only get services in a hospital bed and he likes to sleep in his own bed) I had to half carry him and haul him into it.
I have the doctor coming later. I probably cannot do the transfer tonight, he might have to stay in the lounge-room. He will be fine with that but I am trying to make it as best as possible for him. I might try a wheelchair.
I’m off to get ready to do some entertaining to raise money to help my golf club recover from the floods.
Some gentleman Jim Reeves, John Denver, Merle Haggard, Elvis, Charlie Pride and a score of others.
The guitar work is a bit rusty and the vocals a bit rubbery after the pneumonia late last year, but they ain’t paying for it and it went down pretty well last Friday night.
Catch you all later. 😉
[The opposition rhetoric would write itself. The govt would look like it has no idea what the hell it’s doing anymore. It would piss off everyone.]
And apart from all that — I think Rudd is actually better suited to his current position, and obviously likes it!
Puff
My heart goes out to you. I am so lucky that my mother is still mobile.
IMO it’s reasonable to assume that Labor haven’t done their brand any damage in Brisbane over the last month. In addition to the incredibly small sample that Morgan has polled I have doubts about his integrity in conducting polling that is as accurate and honest as can be despite that small sample. For example, if his pollsters were to call just 25 homes in Queensland (that’s about the sample size I’d expect for QLD in such a small sample) then how do we know that he polled in Brisbane at all? In fact, hpw do we know that he polled in Queensland at all? I guess we have t take his word for it. If he was dishonest would we ever find out? If Morgan released polling numbers for a period how would we know if he had pollsters working at all?
Am I overly sceptical?
I don’t have the same concerns about the integrity of Newspoll at all. I have spoken to O’Shannesey (?) a couple of times and he strikes me as someone who has great integrity and strength of character. Besides which we tend to hear noise from the ground when Newspoll is at work.
William / Poss, What independent checks and balances are in place to ensure that the pollster’s work is carried out ethically and that the results (pure numbers) are reported accurately in the breakdowns? I’m not talking about the integrity of columnists here interpreting that data – that I KNOW is corrupt! 😉
[I know some may disagree but I really don’t think there will be any change of labor leader before the next election.]
I agree.
If Kevin got back as leader it would start one of the most concerted, vicious media campaigns against a leader that we have ever seen, and we have witnessed some horrendous ones.
Labor, and Kevin, know this. There is too much risk. The msm and the Coalition would teach the crowds at the Coliseum a thing or two. It would be the death of a Labor government. Anything that went before would be as child’s play.
I have no problem with Four Corners doing their job as long as it well researched and detailed. I as bloggers know cannot stand Abbott and his party.
However Julia has not set the world on fire since becoming Prime Minister, matter of fact i think she has been very dissappointing. As a Education Minister she struggled and one only has to look at My Schools website which has been fairly embarrassing. Then we have the East Timor option which was policy on the run.
Sorry to say but Labor is hamstrung at present by a media full of right wing ideologues wanting help for big business and ineffective State Governments.
Anna Bligh was in trouble until the disasters and will be again once the disasters dissappear. One only has to look at John Brumby and Bushfires to realise that a year later you can be in mothballs.
How do I connect my blog link to my PB nick? (plz)
Just got a nice surprise in the mail, an invitation to the Women in League All Stars Dinner at the QDeck – can’t wait!
Sorry, Puff, still cooking.
Have you trained in transfers using equipment?
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:31 pm | PermalinkI know some may disagree but I really don’t think there will be any change of labor leader before the next election.
I agree.
If Kevin got back as leader it would start one of the most concerted, vicious media campaigns against a leader that we have ever seen, and we have witnessed some horrendous ones.
Labor, and Kevin, know this. There is too much risk. The msm and the Coalition would teach the crowds at the Coliseum a thing or two. It would be the death of a Labor government. Anything that went before would be as child’s play.
]
Or to put it in simple words – Libs can survive Lazarus leaders – think Howard – Labor on the other hand can’t – Think Beazley.
[TSOP — NSW will come back to Labor after about 3 months of a state Lib govt.
They will not have a honeymoon … like Abbott, the state libs have been very lazy policy-wise … it is only that Labor is so past its used-by date, they will fall in by default.]
I’m afraid most governments get at least a year during which they can blame the former government for anything and everything – often a whole term if they play it right. Given the unpopularity of the NSW government you might even have to double that!
[108 marky markyPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:33 pm | PermalinkI have no problem with Four Corners doing their job as long as it well researched and detailed. I as bloggers know cannot stand Abbott and his party.
However Julia has not set the world on fire since becoming Prime Minister, matter of fact i think she has been very dissappointing. As a Education Minister she struggled and one only has to look at My Schools website which has been fairly embarrassing. Then we have the East Timor option which was policy on the run.
Sorry to say but Labor is hamstrung at present by a media full of right wing ideologues wanting help for big business and ineffective State Governments.
Anna Bligh was in trouble until the disasters and will be again once the disasters dissappear. One only has to look at John Brumby and Bushfires to realise that a year later you can be in mothballs.
]
I see they’ve alowed you a whinging break at Menzies House – Chop Chop get back to work rigging those online polls.
[William / Poss, What independent checks and balances are in place to ensure that the pollster’s work is carried out ethically and that the results (pure numbers) are reported accurately in the breakdowns?]
None, and you might well argue that there should be. However, if Morgan’s game is to skew things in favour of the Coalition, he has a funny way of going about it. Note that of the two measures available for determining the two-party result he has chosen to publicise the one that is (on this occasion) slightly more flattering to Labor, even though it’s known to be less reliable.
I was cooking roast in oven, when there was a momentary power failure. Power came back on. Oven clock working. Oven grill working, but not oven. What now??
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:33 pm | PermalinkHow do I connect my blog link to my PB nick? (plz)
]
click on Profile at the top right of the page and follow the prompts.
Nice one, Scorpio and nice one SK.
Thanks for dinner reviews! Report back, SK, on yours.
I bought a tiny tarragon plant a few days ago; it is shooting up amazingly!
Must be the right weather for it. Humid. (SA)
[one only has to look at My Schools website which has been fairly embarrassing]
only embarrassing to the party that did stuff all in this area in the 11 years they were in office
[the East Timor option which was policy on the run]
agree with that
[Labor is hamstrung at present by a media full of right wing ideologues]
agree with that
[ineffective State Governments]
not ineffective in Victoria or SA – more a case of too long in power.
[Anna Bligh was in trouble until the disasters and will be again once the disasters dissappear]
time will tell but there’s no doubt that there’s no doubt she will be hamstrung….
[by a media full of right wing ideologues]
Gas or electric?
crikey whitey
electric.
I have now put the roast in the Weber, which is what I usually do. I did not have anymore gas, and was waiting for OH to bring another one home, which has now been done. But tried putting on oven. Nothing happens.
[our roses smell like they have just come out of a cow.]
WeWantPaul
Don’t look at me!
You gotta have a laff though or you’ll go bonkers! 😆
No point be serious all the time and ending up in a straight jacket (with Tone)
[victoriaPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:41 pm | Permalinkcrikey whitey
electric.
I have now put the roast in the Weber, which is what I usually do. I did not have anymore gas, and was waiting for OH to bring another one home, which has now been done. But tried putting on oven. Nothing happens.
]
Call a sparkie.
[However Julia has not set the world on fire since becoming Prime Minister, matter of fact i think she has been very dissappointing.]
I am wondering what people truly want here.
It seems that memories are very short. Rudd’s biggest issue, ultimately, was that he image became unrealistic and of rock star proportions … his rhetoric over promised and couldn’t possibly deliver yet many here, and the press and coalition, are bagging Julia for not being exactly the same.
Howard was workmanlike … and though summarily hated by me and many others here … part of his success came from that workmanlike attitude. He could be depended upon, even if you didn’t like him.
For all her supposed image faults — I think Julia is aiming to have a similar long term effect. Nose down. Get it done. Don’t overplay it. Achieve MORE than expected rather than less.
She has been in the job less than 6 months and the expectations are huge. Criticism has been overwhelming. But … as time marches on, and she does get things done, without all the hoopla, people (including the press) will start to show her the respect that she earns.
Thanks William
[Note that of the two measures available for determining the two-party result he has chosen to publicise the one that is (on this occasion) slightly more flattering to Labor, even though it’s known to be less reliable.]
One could assert that he ‘knows’ that Labor will get a boost in other polls and he is trying to minimise that boost whilst being realistic enough to know that he can’t afford to be seen to swim against the current i.e. Labor have improved their lot in the last month.
I could be wrong. I’ve been known to be wrong once or twice in my life.
I’ll check with “a man” Be right back. I am gas girl.
a female called ABC radio this morning and said that Abbott always looks exhausted.
She also said that surfers call Abbott T Bot, because he surfs like a robot. Also said, that women call him tonusinterruptus. She was quite funny.
Wait, sorry, are you saying the oven is gas? LP?
Pilot light may be out, if gas. Do you have the instructions. Think its usually hold down a button in the oven, something (called what?) and light whilst doing so.
crikey whitey
thanks for that. I am going to contact the oven co. on Monday to see what is required. Of course, things have a way of happening after 5.00pm on a Friday. 🙂
[jenauthorPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:42 pm | PermalinkHowever Julia has not set the world on fire since becoming Prime Minister, matter of fact i think she has been very dissappointing.
I am wondering what people truly want here.
It seems that memories are very short. Rudd’s biggest issue, ultimately, was that he image became unrealistic and of rock star proportions … his rhetoric over promised and couldn’t possibly deliver yet many here, and the press and coalition, are bagging Julia for not being exactly the same.
Howard was workmanlike … and though summarily hated by me and many others here … part of his success came from that workmanlike attitude. He could be depended upon, even if you didn’t like him.
For all her supposed image faults — I think Julia is aiming to have a similar long term effect. Nose down. Get it done. Don’t overplay it. Achieve MORE than expected rather than less.
She has been in the job less than 6 months and the expectations are huge. Criticism has been overwhelming. But … as time marches on, and she does get things done, without all the hoopla, people (including the press) will start to show her the respect that she earns.
]
We live in an ADHD Society people want results – YESTERDAY. They are not interested in going in for the long haul.
This has unfortunatly affected politics.
Gary
[BB, you’re an intelligent person can’t you see the silliness in making too much of these figures?]
[Still fighting the factional war Vera?]
Does being a smart ar*e come naturally to you or do you have to practice at it!
What’s wrong with policy on the run?
If things are changing rapidly, change your policy and if necessary do it on the run instead of sitting on your hands in a brown study.
crikey whitey
no oven inside the house that I was using to cook roast is electric. Whilst cooking, there was a momentary power failure. When power came back on. Oven light and oven grill both working, but not actual oven.
In meantime, I have put roast in weber bbq which runs on gas bottle.
Dee@96
I get exactly the same feeling.
[I was cooking roast in oven, when there was a momentary power failure. Power came back on. Oven clock working. Oven grill working, but not oven. What now??]
Assuming it is a modern oven try turning it off at the fuse box stove circuit breaker, waiting 30 secs or so, and then turning it back on again. Resets the computerised circuitry (or at least it does in our Fisher and Pykel).
If still no go, then perhaps it was a power surge that has fried something other than the food I’m afraid.
[MytwobobsworthPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:46 pm | PermalinkGary
BB, you’re an intelligent person can’t you see the silliness in making too much of these figures?
Still fighting the factional war Vera?
Does being a smart ar*e come naturally to you or do you have to practice at it!
]
As opposed of not liking a few home truths being exposed.
[Toorak ToffPosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:46 pm | PermalinkWhat’s wrong with policy on the run?
If things are changing rapidly, change your policy and if necessary do it on the run instead of sitting on your hands in a brown study.
]
Two words.
Pink Batts.
Just by the way, if the above fails you could always split the chicken down the chest, “butterfly” it, and finish it off by frying in a frying pan or a big casserole dish.
Or there is always the old electric frying pan, of course, if you have one available.
[davePosted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 5:47 pm | PermalinkDee@96
victoria
I fear that 4 Corners program is going to be a hatchet job on Gillard.
I get exactly the same feeling.
]
do you expect anything less from their ABC.
Scorpio
[And it could probably be just as accurate to say that Rudd would bolt it in!]
Agree!
Thanks, Rod, you nice gentleman.
What if the fuse box is old, the wire may have blown?
Victoria?
Rod Hagen
Thanks for that. I actually did what you suggested, but it still did not work. Perhaps I should leave it off for longer than a few minutes. Oven I have is ILVE brand.
I was thinking that the power surge may have blown some circuitry.
[However Julia has not set the world on fire since becoming Prime Minister, matter of fact i think she has been very dissappointing.
I am wondering what people truly want here.
It seems that memories are very short.]
Got it in one.
I think that’s my chook, Rod.
[I was thinking that the power surge may have blown some circuitry.]
Sounds likely if leaving it turned off at the fuse box for 60 secs doesn’t fix it, I’m afraid, victoria.
crikey whitey
thanks for your help. Looks like something happened to circuitry in the oven. I will contact ILVE on Monday.
Rod Hagen
Thanks.
Tom, whilst Brumby did some good things their was one area in which he was most ineffective and that was public transport. In fact it cost him Government.
The bureaucracy was not altered from the Kennett years, and this bureaucracy built itself a little sinecure for itself creating massive wasteful bungles. And how did it do it well the Secretary of Department gave advice in 2000 that privatisation would save the Government money , some 100 million per year he said and guess privatisation cost the government more and more in subsidies as the years went on. Then you have the head of the union and soon to be a Labor Party head honcho at State Office who sat back and lapped up all the inefficiencies and money whilst the infrastructure fell apart. The transport area was protected whilst the public suffered with poor services, infrastructure and ineffective and costly transport planning.
Myki was a case in point the amount spent here kept going up some 1.5 Billion dollars for one of the most expensive ticketing systems in the world.
And guess what one of the people in the transport bureaucracy who sat on the tendering decision making process ended up working for Myki- is this corruption or what? Sorry but the government handled transport appalling and in end i think deserved to be booted out for this massive failure.
TSOP
[How so? You seriously can’t see what a suicidal blunder it would be to say “Oops! Our bad! We shouldn’t have dumped Person A for Person B. We’re now gonna dump Person B in favour of Person A, again”]
That is what happened with Howard. Lazarus rising!
Rod Hagen
It is roast lamb and it is now cooking nicely in the Weber outside. Mind you that is the way I normally cook it. It tastes so much better in the Weber. But because I was waiting for replacement gas bottle, I starting the cooking process in the oven.
Never mind. Stuff happens.