Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.
The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).
The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.
I think that it might have been Rudd impersonating several liberal businesspersons who passed the scuttlebutt on to Savva in order to force Shorten’s hand so that Rudd can come in and pick up the pieces.
You know it makes sense.
Savva is a Liberal Party hack front, left, right & centre.
There is “NO” amount of lipstick that could make that Lib hack pig look like a fair-minded anything, let alone a “journalist”! IMHO only!
Yes! Nikki is a Liberal Party hack. she was Costello’s press secretary which in ministerial offices is one of the more senior positions, up there with CoS
[ML
Is Savva a Liberal Party hack woefully disguised as a fair-minded journalist? If so, the point is not how much cred we could give to any of her individual utterances. If so, the point would be that her whole professional life is a lie.]
If people who had worked in political offices were not allowed to participate in media commentary we would have a fairly barren media in Australia!
(there you go, a free kick to make your weekends!) 🙂
[Yes, possibly. Its also possible what he was doing was leaking to the other side so that he could laugh it off as a bit of political mischief while metaphorically throwing his hat in the ring and starting minds ticking over for a move at the end of the year.]
Get off the grass ML
Mod Lib there are two types of people in ministerial offices.
Departmental staff on loan to the Minister’s office and than there are the party hacks.
In most offices it is about 50-50
I meant to add that there is nothing wrong with party hacks being in the media, just as long as they are up front about it and don’t try to hide it from the viewer or reader.
[Get off the grass ML]
…happy to rejoin this conversation in, lets say, about November…
[If people who had worked in political offices were not allowed to participate in media commentary we would have a fairly barren media in Australia!]
Are you saying it’s “not” barren? Blimey! 😉
[…happy to rejoin this conversation in, lets say, about November… ]
It will be down to Garrett or Wong having a tilt at the windmill, I mean PM’ship by then! 😉
Mod Lib
Rather than speculate on the supposed gold nugget. Why don’t you reflect on the here and now. The knives are out for Abbott. Who is going to get the gig now?
I know this is going to cause uproar here, but anyhow:
Australia has one of the best political press (holding pollies to account) in the world, and have for decades. Thank God we are not USA, or that we dont have the grubbiness of Fleet St.
Yes, all opinion, and, yes, you all disagree! But there it is…
mexicanbeemer@1902
After working for costello, she then worked for howard for 4 years.
When the libs lost power she turned up at the OO. Surprise surprise.
ML
Good point. The contrast this morning between Taylor and Atkins on the one hand, and Savva on the other was marked. Two were having a go at sorting through the issues. The third was just spinning on the spot.
Vic:
I hope Turnbull. Its just the issue of backing down on his CC position, or convincing the party room about his preferred position. Otherwise Hockey, who has a tendency to Hand Foot in Mouth disease. The good news is that I doubt it will be a
…right winger
ModLib To a point i agree, expect i think the british and Americans do more indepth political reporting than we do therefore i think they have fuller public policy debates than we do.
Our media tend to only narrowly report what is happening and they tend to only tell half a story and often mis-represent what was actually said or did.
Mod Lib
Turnbull is not going to work out.
Taylor also said, wtte, that Abbott is on notice to get nuanced and that his future depends on the polling.
Go Newspoll!
[It will be down to Garrett or Wong having a tilt at the windmill, I mean PM’ship by then!]
…you’ve lost me there Scorpio
[Australia has one of the best political press (holding pollies to account) in the world, and have for decades. Thank God we are not USA, or that we dont have the grubbiness of Fleet St.]
Well considering that our government is stable and democratic, which is not that common in the world, I’d agree. But there are a lot of problems with our system. Both with its structure and the attitudes of the people who utilise it.
Boerwar
When can we expect the esteemed News Poll?
If the Liberals really, really want power they will go for the one who can pinch a few centre voters. That is neither Robb nor Abbott. It may be Hockey. It may be Turnbull.
IMHO, the most dangerous combo for Labor would be a Turnbull/Hockey ticket.
This image gives a new meaning to the word “Water Taxi”
http://video.heraldsun.com.au/1781626275/Abandon-ship
[Turnbull is not going to work out.]
he is many things but not dumb. I hope he has learned a few things about the job of LOTO and then PM between then and now (although it took howard a decade)…
Boerwar
Problem with Turnbull is that Lib voters, especially National Party ones, don’t want Turnbull.
Shorten is not going to challenge for the top job at this point. He wouldn’t be proudly boasting this fact even if he were.
If Shorten were to successfully become PM, he would go in the history books alongside McMahon as one of the biggest failure PMs.
I do, however, believe he is the best choice for next Labor leader when Gillard goes. (Rudd maybe, Swan definitely not!)
TSOP
I get strong vibes that Rudd is a defnite no.
victoria
I have just done an inhouse online poll: 36% say that GhostWhoVotes will leak it some time on Monday night, 60% say he will leak it on Tuesday night; 4% say that they are uncertain, and 156% admit to having voted multiple times.
[Australia has one of the best political press (holding pollies to account) in the world, and have for decades. Thank God we are not USA, or that we dont have the grubbiness of Fleet St. ]
Proof positive you’re just here to stir, Mod Lib!
Again, you compare something bad to something horrible in the hope that we can say, “oh, yeah, it’s not so bad then”. You did this with Bolt and Saava and now, the Australian press with Fleet Street. Good Lord, what next.
This is plain fatuous, and you know it.
Boerwar
Maybe we could get GWV to leak when he will give us the numbers?
[I do, however, believe he is the best choice for next Labor leader when Gillard goes. (Rudd maybe, Swan definitely not!)]
I think there is something we can say with pretty high level of certainty:
Rudd aint leading the ALP anytime soon!
Mod Lib
[Australia has one of the best political press (holding pollies to account) in the world, and have for decades. Thank God we are not USA, or that we dont have the grubbiness of Fleet St.]
I agree ours is better than the USA and the Murdoch owned bit of UK press but that is setting the bar pretty low, and certainly doesn’t make us best in the world. I know two journalists and both think standards in the profession have dropped a lot in their working lifetimes.
Compare our press to Canada or various European countries, and I think we’d fair much worse.
I’d obviously prefer someone like Turnbull or Hockey to be Lib leader (for ideological reasons) but I am not sure if either could win. Malcolm might. He is extremely clever and projects competence.
If we can do without the mocking laughter and dismissals based on personal incredulity, I’d suggest Robb could be a successful Lib leader. I’d never want him as PM but he does, at times, project a serious conservative like Howard did. He is also ideologically what the party wants but doesn’t seem batshit insane. He could play well with middle Australia. Okay, begin the mockery…
DL
Nah. ML is not a sadist but a masochist.
ML is just waiting to see how far Abbott drops in his PPM figures contra Gillard before Abbott is knifed and ML scarpers.
I am going out on a limb here: Turnbull won’t run as leader should their be an Abbott leadership spill.
Oops their = there
[Again, you compare something bad to something horrible ,,,]
my point exactly. As has been said: “democracy is a horrible system, its just better than all the alternatives”.
Say what you like about our media, just be grateful that we are not in the USA or UK
[I think there is something we can say with pretty high level of certainty:
Rudd aint leading the ALP anytime soon!]
I agree with that. That’s why I put maybe in bold, it was a really drawn out “I could see some scenario where it could work but, otherwise, I don’t really plausibly see it happening”
On Friday I listened to the Wrap on ABC 774. John Roskam (liberal hack) from the IPA did some spinning of his own. He was quite pathetic. But something he said, has remained in my mind all weekend. He said wtte that why should people here in Victoria have to pay a levy to fix Qld. Qld need to answer questions about their level of insurance, and Julia Gillard too has to answer these questions. (Remember the meme that came out before the weekend from the OO and other liberal hacks?) Anyway, he said that if people choose to live in flood, fire and cyclone areas, it is their responsibility. People should live in places were floods don’t happen. Obviously that evening here in Melbourne, we copped flooding in homes in areas such as Brighton, St Kilda, Richmond, Beaumaris, Sandringham etc. My point is, based on his assumption, even suburban Melbourne is unlivable.
To be PM you need ego and ambition in truckloads – no problem with that, a fact of life – The problem with Bill Shorten is that he is so overtly ambitious to be PM – and it comes through in everything he does – and it is must be offputting to his colleagues. He might as well have “My destiny is to be PM and nothing will stop me” tattooed across his forehead. Pebbles, your parallel is to Billy McMahon is quite likely correct. One similarity that they both have (and where the ambitious such as Fraser, Rudd, or Howard are different) is that the rise of both has been whilst in government. F,R,and H had a do a lot of it from opposition.
Should also clarify that the scenarios in which I realistically see Labor changing leaders is either subsequent to losing an election or Gillard retiring.
TSOP
Are you trying to be funny – Andrew Robb a good leader for the Libs, or a good Leader for Labor’s sake?
ML
In any case, I disagree. The US political press is not as bad as the Australian press.
It doesn’t concentrate on hand movements and ear lobes for example!
[I have just done an inhouse online poll: 36% say that GhostWhoVotes will leak it some time on Monday night, 60% say he will leak it on Tuesday night; 4% say that they are uncertain, and 156% admit to having voted multiple times.]
love your work here! As someone who uses statistics I can make 1+1 equal anything from 1 to 3, whatever you prefer.
My favourite quote about stats was from (or at least relayed) by good old Senator Button:
A fool uses statistics like a drunk uses a lamp-post. More for support than illumination
Victoria @ 1939
The Oz article on Friday was about government insurance – private insurance is another matter. But the lack of insurance by either, and then expecting somebody else to pick up the financial pieces is a classic case of moral hazard.
[Are you trying to be funny – Andrew Robb a good leader for the Libs, or a good Leader for Labor’s sake?]
I think with the right advisers he could potentially pull it off. Remember, people don’t vote for Libs because they make them feel good, they do so because they want someone hard headed and willing to make tough decisions.
Howard and Fraser both knew this.
Mod Lib,
[…you’ve lost me there Scorpio]
You’re making it too easy to do! 😉
bbp
this hack Roskam was conflating both private insurance and the infrastructure aspect. Basically, saying that if people did not live in those areas, govt would not need to worry about the infrastructure. Therefore somehow Qld need to get its house in order with respect to all these things and Victoria should not have to fund it. As I said he was spinning so furiously, that he just put everything together in a pea soup, and then regurgitated it. Whatever stuck in the minds of people was good enough for him.
TSOP:
My reading is that Rudd was hated long before he became leader, then PM and that it was circumstance that left no other option for the ALP. Then they gave him the power that his victory and media popularity demanded, making their seething hatred simmer. Then when any opportunity came he was chopped. He is wealthy, household help, filthy rich etc etc. As evident by many ALP supporters here, wealth is a sign of evil. He is not what they call a “true believer” and giving jobs to Libs didn’t aid this view of him.
He will not be ALP leader again. Its not like Howard coming back (people just thought he was hopeless back in the Mr18% days). I reckon Rudd is done, he is campaigning for another job now (as you all know is my view but lets not re-start that given I am Robinson Crusoe on that view!!!!!)