Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.
The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).
The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.
[Grattan’s piece today was a little more pointed in her opinion re Abbott.
The wagons are definitely circling. Oakes started the ball rolling last week, and the rest of them are following now.]
Interesting, Victoria. You did pick up on this. Well spotted.
I do think though that it’s just a case of the press pack finally getting rid of an electoral liability to give a better chance of a Tory Government – preferably through a ‘baton change’.
Abbott was their dream, and they got him so close to the Lodge, but now they’ve realised they’re still so far away that they will likely settle for a more moderate (but more electable) leader so that they can finally defeat Labor and protect their vile vested interests.
Darren,
You could be right. The Coalition has this pipe-dream (and I do not mean tobacco) that government will be gifted to them without having to do any policy development, party renewal or work as a true opposition. One day the world (da Indies) will wake up to the fact that they are the rightful heirs to the government benches and all will be set to right (or Right).
Then the terrible nightmare of being sidelined from all that lovely power (“why isn’t anyone returning my phone calls?”) will end.
Well it could happen, but more likely someone will pass around some more weed.
A friend of mine is a DLO in Rudd’s office
She told me things run much smoother and is less stressful when Rudd is overseas
So she is all for more foreign trips for him
[A friend of mine is a DLO in Rudd’s office
She told me things run much smoother and is less stressful when Rudd is overseas
So she is all for more foreign trips for him]
I have also heard similar comments.
But what Minister’s office doesn’t function better when the Minister is away!
Thanks, Socrates. I’m trying to steel myself to phone my Melbourne family members, and to drive with son down Murphy’s Crk today now the road’s open to more than local traffic. I also want to see the Railway line – an engineering feat when built, it’s been trashed from T’mba past Grantham (I guess you saw pics of cars etc rammed up against the Grantham rail bridge). Some of my best early memories are of riding the train (always steam) to Brisbane & back. The Range climb, though torturously slow, is magnificent, with fascinating exposed scree-slopes, through rainforest & farmlands. During September Carnival & other weekends, steam trains run the whole way – always booked out in advance.
This whole area, from Blackbutt Range over the NSW Border into New England is geologically brilliant (& v significant). In the Lockyer, around Black Duck Creek & Chalk Mine, are stunning remnants of the days (Jurassic) the Range erupted, covering swamps with hot lava, heaving up the seabed, mixing limestone, basalt & sandstone (Helidon Sandstone’s the world’s most sought after), causing multiple slips; all spectacularly carved over eons. Flora, fauna & rock carvings aren’t bad either!
Australians are a most generous nation and donations to the flood appeal very much so; an opal-hearted country in more ways that one; “one nation, indivisible” (IMO more so than USA) especially during disasters (& international sporting events). I’m annoyed that we’re not getting full coverage of Vic’s floods & WA’s fires. At least we can now get some online info. Watching isn’t voyerism. Even if we know no one in affected areas (& most of us do) it’s a mark of our concern for all Australians.
BKH
There are usually only one or two DLOs per office. You might want to ask Wm to delete your post.
PTMD
Abbott is a liability now. Tony Crook has gone and supported flood levy before everyone esle. That would certainly have put a spanner in the coalition’s wheels. Windsor made it clear that Abbott’s response to the flood crisis has been pathetic. There is no way the indies are going to give Abbott the keys to the lodge.
Coalition know that they need a new strategy to regain power.
Darren Laver
responding to your post at 1850. The msm have seen where the wind is now blowing, and as you point out. They will help promote a viable alternative to Abbott in the coming weeks.
Sydney temperatures dropping – currently 25 C but still feels hotter.
Savva said two interesting things on Insiders this morning:
(1) wtte that Shorten is telling business leaders that he will be leader going into the next election
(2) wtte that there is an issue with Brian and Peta and Tony triangle.
Boerwar
You say Savva’s comments were interesting. But what credence do you have them?
Just going through the Onsiders transcript after everyone’s recommendation here.
[BARRIE CASSIDY: Okay. You said recently that Julia Gillard displayed a wooden demeanour during the floods. What did you mean by that?
TONY ABBOTT: Well this is, I was reflecting comments that have been widely made. But the essential point that I was trying to make is that we do not need a new tax on top of all the other misery which these natural disasters have visited upon the Australian people.]
If you ever needed further proof that the Abbott Coalition is in bed with the media – see above.
He can get away with comments like “wooden” Julia – because he’s just “reflecting comments that have been widely made”
Disgraceful.
[TONY ABBOTT: Look Laurie is entitled to write what he wants. But I’d much rather be in my political position than Julia Gillard’s political position.
BARRIE CASSIDY: Okay. Thanks for your time this morning.]
Barrie, you dill, why didn’t you ask, so Mr Abbott you prefer to be LOTO than Prime Minister??
Boerwar
Btw. Is the situation with your father and other rellies okay today?
Nikki other interesting comment.
In a shaddow meeting, no one murmured against the Levy.
mexicanbeemer
did Savva mean that no one else but Abbott opposed the levy?
victoria
Yes. All a bit tired but all OK. Plus, a pelican flew past my bro while he was on the phone so not everything is negative.
Victoria, Barrie didn’t ask her that and they moved on.
I should clarify Nikki was talking about a shaddow cabinet meeting
OPT
[I also want to see the Railway line – an engineering feat when built, it’s been trashed from T’mba past Grantham (I guess you saw pics of cars etc rammed up against the Grantham rail bridge).]
Yes, I have seen pictures at work of a lot of flood damaged road and rail lately. Some will take quite a while to fix – major failures of drainage structures, embankments washed away etc. This flood had both a high volume of water and significant velocity, so it was very damaging. In some cases it may be quicker and more sensible to rebuild a new line from scratch on a parralel alignment.
I too found the response of most people to the crisis very heartening at the local level. It startd before the cleanup. In Brisbane lots of people helped each other move furniture from vulnerable houses to garages of friends on higher ground etc. A few people in our company had their homes flooded.
m
I think that was Shadow Cabinet and what she meant was that no-one murmered against being against the levy. Savva got herself into a knot on that one.
[mexicanbeemer
Posted Sunday, February 6, 2011 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
Nikki other interesting comment.
In a shaddow meeting, no one murmured against the Levy.]
The very distinct impression I got was that it was no-one arguing against Tony’s position on the levy, rather than Tony being isolated. Dont have inside info so this could be wrong, but certainly how it came across
Boerwar
Very good news. The Pelican is a nice touch 🙂
Lenore Taylor and Savva had a disagreement about whether there was an issue with Gillard’s dress sense. Taylor was more or less sayiing, pants suit, biggus dealus. Savva was defending having spent numerous of ‘The Australians’ precious column centimetres on Gillard’s appearance.
There was a bit of bite in the exchange. IMHO, Taylor, a consumate professional, has contempt for Savva’s journalistic standards.
So I am to take it that the shadow cabinet supported Abbott’s position on opposing the levy.
Boerwar. yep i meant Shadow cabinet. Sure Nikki might have meant but being cynical i would be questioning was appears to be loose speak from someone who is a former press secretary
[Savva’s journalistic standards.]
An oxymoron?
Boewar,
[I think that was Shadow Cabinet and what she meant was that no-one murmered against being against the levy.]
That is how I understood it.
ML
At issue was whether the Queensland members were annoyed with Abbott’s stance on the levy. If so, then I suggest that what Savva was doing was saying that the Queensland members are rock solid with Abbott on his approach to the levy.
IMHO, Savva, in her totally disinterested journalist’s best practice, was trying to paper over the cracks. What this episode likely demonstrates that Abbott’s non- consultative thought bubble approach to policy development has earned him some more minus points, and a few more aggrieved individuals in his Party.
After all the water that has gone under the levy bridge, there was simply no room for people who think Abbott’s kneejerk response was stupid to oppose his opposition to the levy. They were faced with a done deal, whether they liked it or not.
Boerwar
I stand to be corrected of course. But I cannot imagine Shorten being that stupid to say that he is gonig to be PM at the end of year, unless his secret agenda is to ruin the Labor govt.
The gold nugget in all of this mornings affairs was Nikki Savva’s comments about Shorten. If her Lib / Business sources are hearing this then its bad news for ALP solidarity. Tony is history but who replaces him??
On the ALP side it looks like its Shorten (at least in his mind)!!!
PTMD
If you are right they will vote for the levy legislation. They won’t, IMHO.
ML
The trouble with anything at all that Savva says is that Savva is saying it.
Boerwar#1876
I believe you are right in that assessment. In any case, the political wind is shifting and the msm are slowly following it in that direction. Savva on the other hand, believes people would have voted for Costello as PM. Her mind is as dour as her demeanour.
I thought I had already read this piece by Paul Howes yesterday, but it is dated today.
[Abbott’s bid for bucks on back of misery]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/abbotts-bid-for-bucks-on-back-of-misery/story-e6frezz0-1226000705457
[Her mind is as dour as her demeanour.]
Spot on, Victoria!
victoria
Psst, psst. Don’t tell anyone. I have heard via Savva, Bolt, Akerman or similar quality, that Robb told a bunch of totally disinterested and unnamed union thugs that he will lead the Opposition into the next election.
Shorten would not be silly enough to say anything of the kind, particularly to a business luncheon (like he’d think it wouldn’t get out…)
You can imagine saying something like that as a joke and having some earnest but thick business type taking it seriously.
I especially like this bit in Howes piece
[Abbott had the chance this week to demonstrate real leadership. Instead, he chose rank money-grubbing and, in the process, made himself look mean and unstatesman-like.
This may be one of Australia’s darkest hours, but we will rally. They build them tough in Queensland, and they’ll be right with a bit of help from their friends.
The same cannot be said for Abbott, though. This will be a watershed moment in his leadership.
So no, Tony, you may not have a donation.]
Darren Laver
I am glad you agree with my assessment of Savva 🙂
True she is dour, just take her petty comments about how Gillard dresses, without being rude has Nikki looked in the mirror and seen her hairstyle. thankfully it is coloured.
[Shorten would not be silly enough to say anything of the kind, particularly to a business luncheon (like he’d think it wouldn’t get out…)
You can imagine saying something like that as a joke and having some earnest but thick business type taking it seriously.]
Yes, possibly. Its also possible what he was doing was leaking to the other side so that he could laugh it off as a bit of political mischief while metaphorically throwing his hat in the ring and starting minds ticking over for a move at the end of the year.
Mod Lib,
[The gold nugget in all of this mornings affairs was Nikki Savva’s comments about Shorten. If her Lib / Business sources are hearing this then its “all a load of balderdash”!
Just corrected the end bit of that sentence for you!
Why and the blazes would Shorten take the risk of informing business sources about his supposed ambitions to roll JG for the PM’s position!
That sort of thing doesn’t even happen in the average Torie’s wildest imaginary wanderings. 😉
[Psst, psst. Don’t tell anyone. I have heard via Savva, Bolt, Akerman or similar quality, that Robb told a bunch of totally disinterested and unnamed union thugs that he will lead the Opposition into the next election.]
Exactly – and Mod Lib fell for this:
[The gold nugget in all of this mornings affairs was Nikki Savva’s comments about Shorten.]
Mod Lib
oh yes, and it’s also possible that he’s a fruit bat cunningly disguised as a human being.
I mean, what are the thought processes you’re attributing to him here?
“OK, so I’ll let slip at this business lunch that I’m looking forward to being PM later in the year. That way, it will get leaked to the media and I can deny it. Then everyone in the Labor party will know that I want the job if it’s available.”
Why doesn’t he just slip a piece of paper into a batch of fortune cookies, saying “In the future, you will vote for BS as PM’ and distribute it to all his colleagues?
It would be far simpler.
zoomster,
[You can imagine saying something like that as a joke and having some earnest but thick business type taking it seriously.]
Of course, nobody would have taken note of what happened with Garrett’s little gaff, would they? 😉
I completely agree it could be a furfy, it could be a deliberate lie by Savva (I think this v unlikely but no doubt most of you don’t), but it could also be a strategic leak to get the campaign off the ground and get in before Combet.
He will come out and categorically deny it so that he doesn’t look disloyal, but we have recent evidence that he is happy to move against PMs don’t we?
[Why doesn’t he just slip a piece of paper into a batch of fortune cookies, saying “In the future, you will vote for BS as PM’ and distribute it to all his colleagues? ]
Or give it to McLaughlin to stick in his wallet with the moths and other secret pieces of paper! 😉
Mexicanbeamer,
I didn’t notice Savva’s hair or clothes much so I went back to the ABC site and watched her again.Strangely enough her clothes are roughly the same shaped clobber the PM wears and her hair is a similar no-fuss style. Who is she to criticise the PM’s dress? As the other lady said, a suit is a suit is a suit.
Ooohhh, Mod Lib, and maybe it’s even more cunning than that.
Maybe Combet impersonated Bill Shorten at the meeting, having previously slipped a sleeping tablet into his coffee, and made the statement so that Bill Shorten got into big doo doos and thus queered his pitch in his push for the leadership?
Because nothing shrieks “I’m leadership material!” that making a stupid statement in front of a bunch of people you know you can’t trust and then denying it.
ML
Is Savva a Liberal Party hack woefully disguised as a fair-minded journalist? If so, the point is not how much cred we could give to any of her individual utterances. If so, the point would be that her whole professional life is a lie.
[but it could also be a strategic leak to get the campaign off the ground and get in before Combet. ]
The poor horse is dead; stop beating it ML. Your excitement at a Savva furphy is amusing.