Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [“The controversial television expose revealing former NSW transport minister David Campbell’s secret sex life has been vindicated by the broadcasting watchdog, which has ruled his ”outing” was in the public interest.” — The Sydney Morning Herald]

    That was in Crikey.com yesterday but I haven’t had a chance to look at the SMH yet.

    Does this create an ‘anything goes’ for the press now?

  3. BK

    Yes more good examples of levys that were clearly not taxes. Perhaps someone should ask Abbott if a levy is a new tax? That should clear things up.

  7. Wowa, what a week here in Brisvegas. The number of houses I have seen that are just an empty shell, all the contents on the street and the plaster board walls as well. There is a pile at the end of our street that must be at least 25 metres high and 2000 square metres across.

    Something needs to give with the way flood insurance is done, the majority of people I have spoken to are not covered. Hopefully someone finds the political will.

  9. [Also an ANSETT levy]

    I forgot that one – wasn’t there a lot of controversy about that because Howard & his crew made a few mistakes with it.

  11. [Also an ANSETT levy

    I forgot that one – wasn’t there a lot of controversy about that because Howard & his crew made a few mistakes with it.}
    And it went on for far longer than justified.

  12. On a more general note, I am a bit sick of hearing the mantra of the Coalition as better economic managers than Labor and I came across this discussion paper by The Australia Institute written in June 2005. It looks at the two periods of the ALP in government 1983-1996 and the Coalition from 1996.

    http://www.google.com.au/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=Who+is+better+at+managing+the+economy&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&redir_esc=&ei=jPk0TZe5O8TJcbusgegH

    [Earlier in this paper we mentioned that because the ALP Government came into office in the middle of a recession and had to cope with another global recession in the early nineties, managing the economy was, for it, a much more difficult task. The Coalition Government came into power when the economy was growing rapidly and also benefited from all the structural changes introduced by the ALP (e.g. trade liberalisation, increased expenditure on education, deregulation of the economy and so on). Hence, if the growth rate under the Coalition has been higher than under the ALP, this does not mean that Coalition policies are responsible in managing the Australian economy]

    Well, I feel better now.

  13. Liberal levies are legitimate labor levies are proof they can’t manage an economy – levies are always lovlier under a liberal government and STOP the LABOR LEVIES

  19. Yesterday I pointed out how stupid was a ratings agency prediction that Brisbane house prices would drop because of the flood. I said outside of the flood affected properties house prices and rentals would probably rise, due to 27,000 families having to find new accomodation. Voila:
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/property/prices-to-soar-in-rental-rush-20110118-19udz.html

    Socrates 1
    Ratings agency 0

    Seriously, one of the many disgraces in the official responses to the GFC was that ratings agencies were not run out of business. This is just more evidence.

  20. [‘That the Commission investigates the scientific basis for the view that increased burning of fossil fuels is probably causing floods with greater amplitude and frequency of floods. ]

    If Gillard is any good, this will be her narrative:

    1. CC & GW will cause natural disasters with greater amplitude and frequency
    2. We need a National Management Plan that will include (ETS, National Levy etc etc)

  21. Vic

    the accc should be getting more bite

    the historical low rate of company tax,plus the windfall profits by miners banks etc is not on

    time they paid their share

    🙁

  22. [Seriously, one of the many disgraces in the official responses to the GFC was that ratings agencies were not run out of business. This is just more evidence.]

    Soc, you cannot ask the fox to guard the hen house 👿

  25. Gus um I know many in the corporate world who consider the Corp tax rate unreasonably high and are working towards 20% seriously. If govt can’t get the resource rent tax going how would we expect any success?

    And people think I’m just a trouble maker when I say things like I wish the far left were 5% as effective as the far right.

  26. according to that article I just posted, the PM received a round of applause at an evacuation centre in Vic. That is heartwarming 🙂

  27. Finns
    [Soc, you cannot ask the fox to guard the hen house]
    The really stupid thing about these sorts of foxes, is that they imagine they will last one week past the death of the last chicken.

  30. [It should not be just a flood levy anyway, it should be a “Natural Disaster Levy” to cover floods, bush fires, earthquakes, tsunamis, and cyclones (any others?).]

    Finns, what about getting sucked into a great new big black hole? And I wanna know is there a sliding application scale for the just and unjust.

  32. [sspencer_63 Abbott says NBN is now a luxury Australia cannot now afford. Says money should be spent on Qld floods]

    Amazing he knows what the total cost of the flood damange will be and the impact on the budget already. the man is incredible a genius in fact.

  33. [Finns, what about getting sucked into a great new big black hole? And I wanna know is there a sliding application scale for the just and unjust.]

    The rich are just ‘too big to fail’- trickle down effect an’ all.

  41. Ordinary taxpayers will just lose – there should be a tie between the Corp tax rate personal tax rate and gst rate so they all go up and down together. Otherwise it will keep going in the same direction.

  42. b-g

    As I mentioned earlier Latika Bourke tweeted that Abbott was going to do a presser in Sydney. Perhaps. tweet by Spencer in response to presser.

  45. [according to that article I just posted, the PM received a round of applause at an evacuation centre in Vic. That is heartwarming ]

    Will it be shown on the ABC? I wonder.

    Abbott thinks that he’s on a winner with the NBN story, does he? Well, I reckon it’s got to be nerds unite and fight the shortsighted sod.

    Why doesn’t someone point out to him that copper wire is suffering from the floods and will have to be replaced. Why not just replace it in one go with fibre or is my techno illiteracy showing.

  47. b_g @ 243

    BK

    The answer would surely include something about ‘why would peoplewant to have to plug a fibre cable into their laptops in cafes when they can do wireless just fine’

    bk @ 244

    b_g
    Hmm – you’ve got a point there.

    Are you two serious?

  48. I don’t want to pay a levy or a new tax.

    The reason is that, while I would like to live next to a river on a flood plain in the middle of the bush, I don’t do so because I recognize the risks, not to say stupidity of doing so. My choice.

    (1) I have house insurance
    (2) it is up to date
    (3) and I know what is in it.

    I have chosen to have trees around the house. I take personal responsibility for ensuring that branches don’t fall on others or on the house. This requires annual efforts of significant proportions. (In fact, I have spent part of this morning out with the branch lopper.)

    All this means that I have had to forego certaint life amenities and pay opportunity costs. My choice.

    I have not received any of the profits realized by people who have made bad or corrupt decisions in relation to where houses have been built. Why should I pay a levy to pay for the consequences of poor planning and corruption?

    When I was a farmer I took risks. These included flood risks, storm risks and drought risks. If my risk management worked, I made good money. If my risk management was poor I made a loss. Why should I have expected others to bail me out every time a hailstorm destroyed my crop? (They didn’t by the way!). It would have made for lazy and inefficient farming. (It is also why I am against so-called ‘drought assistance’ to farmers.

    Why, on top of my insurance, should I pay a levy for people who have enjoyed riverine and/or flloodplain and/or bush amenities, who have not bothered to pay insurance, who have not bothered to check what is in their insurance policies and who have not bothered to check whether their insurance is up to date?

    People do not have to build on and live in flood plains. They do not have to build in the middle of a fire-prone eucalypt forest. These are deliberate choices. All the necessary information is freely available (not to say, obvious, with a bit of common sense).

    The benefits of these decisions are taken for granted. The disbenefits should be accepted as part of the personal package, and not outsourced to individuals who have taken full responsibility for their lives.

    The thought of my money going to pay for a levy to keep multi-million dollar homes dry on the Brisbane River’s edge is outrageous. A straight robbery of the public for private profiteers.

    I would be willing to pay a levy to help pay for people who are unfortunate enough not to be fully in a position to make real choices. I would include people who are in public rental properties. But I would also like to know why public housing is being built in flood prone areas and who is going to be sacked for allowing it happen.

  49. I was going to suggest the Australian Test team be declared a Natural Disaster, but instead of needing funds, I think the team needs less money and more grit!

    I’m looking at you Clarkey 👿

  50. Insurance…a national scheme……>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    The Federal Govt should set up a compulsary disaster relief Insurance scheme funded by a 1% levy on wages and profits,like the one we have for Medicare ….to cover floods,fire and earthquake costs.and the cost of reconstruction…

    Simple to run and would cover all…Whitlam tried to do so but failed in the Senate…but Julia will have the numbers after June…it would be popular and an election winner,because the Libs would be under pressure from the Insurers to oppose it !
    Go to it Julia !
    It would be an election winner !!!…and poison for Abbott………..

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