Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. Happy New Year to all Pollbludgers. Having our usual “rage party”at home here!

    In 2011 (after two elections worth) I am taking a break from direct “political” activism and instead I (and my minions!) am going to try and put Global Warming front and centre in the community. Not via politicians, as the events of 2009 showed that Labor, Liberal and Greens all used this issue for cheap political point-scoring, and are likely to continue to do so.

    I am also meaning to change my PB name back to what it originally was, before I accidentally changed it. Maybe I will even get a Gravatar! Though picking a favourite image may be beyond me.

    All the best for 2011, and thank you again William for running this site – it has kept me going through thick and thin, and one day maybe I will even catch up on the threads I missed out on at the time of all the late June 2009 shenanigans.

  3. That Margot Fontyn film reminded me that years ago my wife and I were in Venice and got off a ferry when it stopped at the cemetery island in the lagoon. The Italians are big on monuments.and tombs’ and great on cemeteries

    Someone pointed out to us the tomb of a Russian called Daghilev,who helped,with others, to bring the Russian Imperial Ballet to Paris before WW1. There it was a sensation…Ballet having been a minor art form until then in the West…and the Russian were just the best !
    At a New years Eve party in Paris ,there was a fortune teller reading palms. She told him he would die surrounded by water.
    He was very superstitious and feared sea travel. and refused a fortune when asked to take the Ballet to New York…by boat of course..He even hated the crossing to the UK from France
    However he never returned to Russia after the Revolution and made a life in Europe…but travelling in Italy in the 1920″ies he took ill and was taken from the train to the nearest hospital..in Venice..surrounded by water..where he died.

  4. [Someone pointed out to us the tomb of a Russian called Daghilev,who helped,with others, to bring the Russian Imperial Ballet to Paris before WW1. There it was a sensation…Ballet having been a minor art form until then in the West…and the Russian were just the best !]

    Dagihiliev was called the first impressario

    he actually was also a designer and writer

  6. Very happy New Year everyone, may 2011 bring you health, strength and love.
    Thankyou for allowing me to be part of this wonderful source of friendship.
    Sincere best wishes to you all..

    David Lenihan

  11. [http://www.direct.gov.uk/prod_consum_dg/groups/dg_digitalassets/@dg/@en/documents/digitalasset/dg_183669.pdf]

    Frank the link doesn’t appear to recognise the click, unless it is my PC
    D

  12. [I raise a Boag to all PBers for the New Year. May love, luck and prosperity be yours for 2011.
    May the Labor government, Greens and Indies bring in progressive legislation and navigate safely the hostile waters of the feral MSM. May Tony Abbott start wearing board shorts.]

    Hear, hear, Puff! Well said! (Except in my case it was a rather nice drop of shiraz that was raised! 😉 )

  14. Happy New Year Poll Bludgers. Personally, I’m hoping for a little less political turmoil this year. Bring on a year of solid Labor governance!

    I raise my can of Jack Daniels and Coke (in my favourite stubby holder) to youse all!

  15. [Hear, hear, Puff! Well said! (Except in my case it was a rather nice drop of shiraz that was raised! 😉 )]

    Rod as a dual Aust/NZ ciizen (hic) I reserve the right noooooo the left, never the right, to say iz in my humbles opinioniateed thoughts, whew, NZ SAV BLANC isss bewdiful, yea lets go hehe….

  18. Gus you reveal wonders from the green pastures of Taranaki I never knew of, they make wine there.? oh my (you know who)…i thought milk, beef and and rugby players was their claim to fame, plus oil by the millions of barrels of their coast, .the west coast of both nz islands have always been sneeky, bit like WA 🙂 the land everyone forgot until premier barnett saw his ordination to sainthood. (Dont bite Frank)

  19. Tonight is a cold beer night in SA.
    I have a few, or more than a few, reds of various types waiting for the imbibing, but have not had a nz wine. I must remedy such error of my ways.

    NY Resolution.
    1. Try nz wine.

  20. david

    I had the pleasut=re to work with donovan nikau (tawarea’s bro – NZ rugby league captn)

    donovan was 6 8 but a pure gent

    he allowed me as pakeha to witness the fruits of NZ

    and to open my eyes to indigenes issues

    🙂

  24. First AFL state to schedule a Good Friday game in 2011:

    [ R_Lewis_thewest Ross Lewis
    Interesting the #wafl has decided to trial Good Friday game in 2011. Royals-Lions to take on challenge. Details on #thewest_com_au tomorrow.
    10 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  28. Puff

    Gylcol is a common ahem ingedient in ahem certain products

    way back when the use of glycol almost ruined the italian wine industry

    in effect it adds “body”

  29. Gus …thanks for that, you are, as I am, able to know the beauty of the Maori race. I have 2 sisters law who married my brothers, who have Maori blood and produced the most beautiful off spring, who I am so proud to say are the most beautiful kids an uncle can be so proud of. The beautiful combination pakeha and maori is so beautiful. What is even better the genes are encouraging cricket as well as rugby/union/league 🙂

  32. David

    I am a proud celtic

    but as a human, I bow to grace and culture

    As sweden is to europe. so is NZ to the pacific

    hawaii included (due to the extinction of the original peeps- who incidentally were closely allied to the maori)

  35. [Sounds like a hanging offence.]

    I think it also affected the french and spanish reputation

    ot course, these days they wouldnt do it

    ps a tell tale sign is ahem a cramp or tingle in the ankles

    👿

  38. Ah Gus excellent points and we should never forget the first, as is now accepted in NZ …the Maori Ori who are the inhabitants of the Chatham Islands off the Sth Coast of NZ , were in fact the original inhabitants of NZ and went to the Chathams to escape the attacking pacific islanders from wherever…damn NZ has so much exciting history.

  41. David

    the Nikau are titular princes of aeteoroa

    at last count they were about 6% of maori

    I every now and again get a message or missive

    Maori aint peeps to F with

  42. ps

    david

    We played a soccer game

    (world V NZ- where I worked way back when)

    Donovan charged me (I was goalie) and of course we engaged in good ol rugger tactics

    At one stage we (the world) had a rolling maul going

    then donovan clocked me (I was the ball carrier)

    the rest is history

    🙂

  45. Puff

    without naming brands

    I suggest you ahem review the ahem export list

    ie who does and who doesnt

    the EU countries sorta give it away

    ps the USA aint a ahem good guide

    ie if the scandia nations import- then it is OK

    🙂

  47. Gus,
    as in wine?
    According to wiki in Australia that stuff is not allowed as an ingredient. Are sum being norty?

  49. Puff

    all I can say is the code is AHEM voluntary

    I mean no-one would add melamine to milk

    would they?

    or back in the 80’s add glycol to AHEM add body

    I MEAN CAPITALISM CARES

    sorta like the TOOTH FAIRY

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