Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. [I loved Robert Mitchum in his younger days (sexy as ) so I won’t mind .

    he’s a real baddy in this and Gregory Peck is the goodie]
    Robert Mitchum was an under rated actor.

  2. vera,

    Mitchum and Peck. That’ll get you going. Mitchum had the looks and not too much acting (The Sundowners was his best). Cheers! Gregory Peck was a looker but was he a GREAT actor?

  3. Has anyone noticed what the msm has done with its usual “The year in review”? Seven did some rubbish in their afternoon “news”.

  4. Boerwar
    [On the Goulburn River flats in Victoria. We were ‘early’ and usually got good pre-Christmas prices.]
    Did you ever visit the pick your own berry farms up at Silvan?

  5. [
    Before the fireworks I’ll have to watch a Jeeves and Wooster, something tolerable. Why do they ALL wheel out garbage? I know!

    Another Jeeves and Wooster fan. I’ve just finished series three. Very enjoyable

  6. Gusface,

    So, is the “Spotted” different from the other? Did the schoolmate take the required action? If not, do you undertake, as a NY promise, to remind him for the next twelve months of his negligence?

  7. madcyril,

    The lady of the house smuggled the complete set into my castle. I have forgiven her. The padlock around her nethers has now been unkeyed.

  8. Gus

    I thought Tone was going to be in our neighbourhood but Burrill lake is south of Ulladulla a good hour or more south of us so I can breathe a sigh of relief!

    No need to be armed with the budgie repellent every time I leave home now 😆

  9. Margot Fonteyn was a great dancer. She was made greater still by Rudolf Nureyev.

    From all reports, Alicia Markova was the supreme ballerina. My parents took me to watch her perform (1956) before we emigrated to Oz. At eleven, I could not absorb the quality. I’ll be looking for DVDs of Markova. That said, Margot and Rudolf in Don Quixote is great.

  10. Dee,

    The wife did that with Honsby Girls and has been forever grateful, 50 year reunion September this year. Sounds like you had (have?) a great upbringing. Your comments suggest so.

  11. I raise a Boag to all PBers for the New Year. May love, luck and prosperity be yours for 2011.
    May the Labor government, Greens and Indies bring in progressive legislation and navigate safely the hostile waters of the feral MSM. May Tony Abbott start wearing board shorts.

  12. vp

    Gus don’t need stars on his shoulders he is one 🙂

    And grass be damned, it’s the festive season, I’ve been on the turnips, better for the global warming I’ve been told 😉

  13. Just finished watching a doco called” fortress Australia”
    If holt didn.t drown we would by now have nuclear power, and a bomb or 2.

  14. I’m beginning to feel in the cast of La Sonnambula. Joan had the best voice but she didn’t have the warmth of, say, Elisabeth Schwarzkopf and not the dominance of Birgit Nilsson. And no one has had the passion since Maria Callas, flawed as her high notes were.

  15. Well, it’s goodbye to the first decade of the 2000’s. This was the decade the forces of neo-conservatism (of all faiths and politics) stole, and thereby plunged millions into misery. All our hopes and dreams of NYE 2000 were dashed on the rocks of mistrust, fear and greed.

    I hope this second decade can see a resurgence of courage, compassion, common-sense and ethics around the globe, leading to the defeat of the politics of fear.

  16. Puff the Magic Dragon……
    Yes that was the decade best forgotten…but not for Australia.I think
    I think it marked the beginning of the end of the greatest empire humanity has ever seen…the American Empire..which now goes on a very dark..”and long and windy road “….as China moves to centre stage ….
    Chalmers Johnstone a noted American historian had recently published the third and final volume of his history of the modern USA……called”Nemesis..The end of the American republic” The two earlier volumes were called “Blowback)(think 9/11..and the second was “The sorrows of Empire ” ..). great titles and great books too
    He thinks it’s all over for the US,and as the economic crisis worsens thinks some ambitious military man will stage the coup that ends that phase of US history… and why not !
    Who 20 years ago ever expected to see the collapse of the USSR…??……as the Chinese would say …interesting times !
    .and a Happy New year too !

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